Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.

Mean dynamic topography and oceanographic parameters estimated from an inverse model and satellite geodesy, with link to model result in one single NetCDF file (392 MB), including the inverse data error covariance

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

Improved geoid solution for the Weddell Sea region

We present a geoid solution for the Weddell Sea and adjacent continental Antarctic regions. There, a refined geoid is of interest, especially for oceanographic and glaciological applications. For example, to investigate the Weddell Gyre as a part of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and, thus, of the global ocean circulation, the mean dynamic topography (MDT) is needed. These days, the marine gravity field can be inferred with high and homogeneous resolution from altimetric height profiles of the mean sea surface. However, in areas permanently covered by sea ice as well as in coastal regions, satellite altimetry features deficiencies. Focussing on the Weddell Sea, these aspects are investigated in detail. In these areas, ground-based data that have not been used for geoid computation so far provide additional information in comparison with the existing high-resolution global gravity field models such as EGM2008. The geoid computation is based on the remove-compute-restore approach making use of least-squares collocation. The residual geoid with respect to a release 4 GOCE model adds up to two meters and more in the near-coastal and continental areas of the Weddell Sea region, also in comparison with EGM2008. Consequently, the thus refined geoid serves to compute new estimates of the regional MDT and geostrophic currents.

Uniformly reweighted belief propagation for distributed Bayesian hypothesis testing

Belief propagation (BP) is a technique for distributed inference in wireless networks and is often used even when the underlying graphical model contains cycles. In this paper, we propose a uniformly reweighted BP scheme that reduces the impact of cycles by weighting messages by a constant ?edge appearance probability? rho ? 1. We apply this algorithm to distributed binary hypothesis testing problems (e.g., distributed detection) in wireless networks with Markov random field models. We demonstrate that in the considered setting the proposed method outperforms standard BP, while maintaining similar complexity. We then show that the optimal ? can be approximated as a simple function of the average node degree, and can hence be computed in a distributed fashion through a consensus algorithm.

Brain tissue segmentation on Diffusion Weighted Magnetic Resonance data

Introduction Diffusion weighted Imaging (DWI) techniques are able to measure, in vivo and non-invasively, the diffusivity of water molecules inside the human brain. DWI has been applied on cerebral ischemia, brain maturation, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, etc. [1]. Nowadays, there is a very high availability of these images. DWI allows the identification of brain tissues, so its accurate segmentation is a common initial step for the referred applications. Materials and Methods We present a validation study on automated segmentation of DWI based on the Gaussian mixture and hidden Markov random field models. This methodology is widely solved with iterative conditional modes algorithm, but some studies suggest [2] that graph-cuts (GC) algorithms improve the results when initialization is not close to the final solution. We implemented a segmentation tool integrating ITK with a GC algorithm [3], and a validation software using fuzzy overlap measures [4]. Results Segmentation accuracy of each tool is tested against a gold-standard segmentation obtained from a T1 MPRAGE magnetic resonance image of the same subject, registered to the DWI space. The proposed software shows meaningful improvements by using the GC energy minimization approach on DTI and DSI (Diffusion Spectrum Imaging) data. Conclusions The brain tissues segmentation on DWI is a fundamental step on many applications. Accuracy and robustness improvements are achieved with the proposed software, with high impact on the application’s final result.

Adding Usability Mechanisms into Agile Requirements: Tool Support with U-Kunagi

The growing interest for integrating agile methodologies and usability has brought various challenges to practitioners. This research focuses on a specific part of these challenges that is related to the integration of usability mechanisms (features such as cancel, undo, warning, etc.) into agile requirements, usually written in the form of user stories. For this aim, a framework has been developed, conformed first by a well-defined modeling language that aims to formalize previous empirical research in the field, models of the impact of usability mechanisms into user stories, and a tool to help practitioners applying them to user stories. Results show that the use of this framework helps agile developers to think about usability from the beginning of the development process, without needing to be an expert in the subject. Our proposal can therefore complement other usability practices to improve the quality of use of software developed using agile methodologies.

Comparison of different pre-treatments to improve accuracy of total soluble solids.

The applicability of a portable NIR spectrometer for estimating the °Brix content of grapes by non-destructive measurement has been analysed in field. The NIR spectrometer AOTF-NIR Luminar 5030, from Brimrose, was used. The spectrometer worked with a spectral range from 1100 to 2300 nm. A total of 600 samples of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes, belonging to two vintages, were measured in a non-destructive way. The specific objective of this research is to analyse the influence of the statistical treatment of the spectra information in the development of °Brix estimation models. Different data pretreatments have been tested before applying multivariate analysis techniques to generate estimation models. The calibration using PLS regression applied to spectra data pretreated with the MSC method (multiplicative scatter correction) has been the procedure with better results. Considering the models developed with data corresponding to the first campaign, errors near to 1.35 °Brix for calibration (SEC = 1.36) and, about 1.50 °Brix for validation (SECV = 1.52) were obtained. The coefficients of determination were R2 = 0.78 for the calibration, and R2 = 0.77 for the validation. In addition, the great variability in the data of the °Brix content for the tested plots was analysed. The variation of °Brix on the plots was up to 4 °Brix, for all varieties. This deviation was always superior to the calculated errors in the generated models. Therefore, the generated models can be considered to be valid for its application in field. Models were validated with data corresponding to the second campaign. In this sense, the validation results were worse than those obtained in the first campaign. It is possible to conclude in the need to realize an adjustment of the spectrometer for each season, and to develop specific predictive models for every vineyard.

Estudio de la adherencia de armaduras corroídas y su influencia en la capacidad resistente de elementos de hormigón armado

La verificación de la seguridad estructural, tanto de estructuras que permitan un cierto grado de deterioro en su dimensionado como de estructuras existentes deterioradas, necesita disponer de modelos de resistencia que tengan en cuenta los efectos del deterioro. En el caso de la corrosión de las armaduras en las estructuras de hormigón armado, la resistencia depende de múltiples factores tales como la sección del acero corroído, el diagrama tensión-deformación del acero corroído, la adherencia hormigón-acero corroído, la fisuración o desprendimiento del hormigón debido a la expansión de los productos de corrosión. En este sentido, la transferencia de las fuerzas a través de la superficie de contacto entre el hormigón y el acero, la adherencia, es uno de los aspectos más importantes a considerar y es la base del comportamiento del hormigón armado como elemento estructural. La adherencia debe asegurar el anclaje de las armaduras y transmitir la tensión tangencial que aparece en las mismas como consecuencia de la variación de las solicitaciones a lo largo de un elemento estructural. Como consecuencia de la corrosión de las armaduras, el desarrollo de la adherencia se altera y, por tanto, la transferencia de la tensión longitudinal. Esta Tesis Doctoral aborda el comportamiento en estado límite último de la adherencia en el hormigón estructural con armaduras corroídas. El objetivo principal es la obtención de un modelo suficientemente realista y fiable para la evaluación de la adherencia con armaduras corroídas en el marco de la verificación de la seguridad estructural de elementos de hormigón armado con armaduras corroídas. Para ello se ha llevado a cabo un programa experimental de ensayos tipo pull-out excéntricos, con diferentes probetas, unas sin corrosión y otras sometidas tanto a procesos de corrosión natural como a procesos de corrosión acelerada, con diferentes grados de deterioro. Este tipo de ensayo de adherencia representa de forma realista y fiable realista los esfuerzos de adherencia en la zona de anclaje. Por otra parte, para la realización de estos ensayos se ha puesto a punto, además del procedimiento de ensayo, un sistema de adquisición de datos entre los que se incluye el empleo de sensores de tipo fibra óptica con redes de Bragg embebidos en la armadura para determinar los parámetros representativos de la adherencia en el hormigón estructural con armaduras corroídas. Por otra parte, la recopilación de los datos de los estudios de adherencia con armaduras corroídas procedentes de la literatura científica, además de los resultados de la presente investigación, junto con la identificación de las variables relevantes en el comportamiento de la adherencia con armaduras sanas y corroídas ha servido para la obtención de una formulación realista y fiable para la evaluación conjunta de la adherencia con armaduras sanas y corroídas a partir de modelos de regresión múltiple. La formulación propuesta ha sido validada mediante criterios estadísticos y comparada con otras formulaciones propuestas en la literatura científica. Además se ha realizado un análisis de las variables influyentes de la formulación propuesta. También se ha obtenido un modelo numérico simple y eficiente, validado con alguno de los ensayos realizados en esta tesis, para simular la adherencia con armaduras sanas y corroídas. Finalmente, se presenta un procedimiento para realizar la evaluación de vigas deterioradas por corrosión mediante el método de los campos de tensiones que incluye la evaluación de la adherencia mediante la formulación sugerida en esta Tesis Doctoral. Las conclusiones alcanzadas en este trabajo han permitido evaluar la adherencia con armaduras corroídas de forma realista y fiable. Asimismo, se ha podido incluir la evaluación de la adherencia en el marco de la verificación de la seguridad estructural en elementos de hormigón armado deteriorados por corrosión. ABSTRACT Structural safety verification of both structures allowing a certain degree of deterioration in design and deteriorated existing structures needs strength models that factor in the effects of deterioration. In case of corrosion of steel bars in reinforced concrete structures, the resistance depends on many things such as the remaining cross-section of the corroded reinforcement bars, the stress-strain diagrams of steel, the concrete-reinforcement bond and corrosion-induced concrete cracking or spalling. Accordingly, the force transfer through the contact surface between concrete and reinforcement, bond, is one of the most important aspects to consider and it is the basis of the structural performance of reinforced concrete. Bond must assure anchorage of reinforcement and transmit shear stresses as a consequence of the different stresses along a structural element As a consequence of corrosion, the bond development may be affected and hence the transfer of longitudinal stresses. This PhD Thesis deals with ultimate limit state bond behaviour in structural concrete with corrode steel bars. The main objective is to obtain a realistic and reliable model for the assessment of bond within the context of structural safety verifications of reinforced concrete members with corroded steel bars. In that context, an experimental programme of eccentric pull-out tests were conducted, with different specimens, ones without corrosion and others subjected to accelerated or natural corrosion with different corrosion degrees. This type of bond test reproduces in a realistic and reliable way bond stresses in the anchorage zone. Moreover, for conducting these tests it was necessary to develop both a test procedure and also a data acquisition system including the use of an embedded fibre-optic sensing system with fibre Bragg grating sensors to obtain the representative parameters of bond strength in structural concrete with corroded steel bars. Furthermore, the compilation of data from bond studies with corroded steel bars from scientific literature, including tests conducted in the present study, along with the identification of the relevant variables influencing bond behaviour for both corroded and non-corroded steel bars was used to obtain a realistic and reliable formulation for bond assessment in corroded and non-corroded steel bars by multiple linear regression analysis. The proposed formulation was validated with a number of statistical criteria and compared to other models from scientific literature. Moreover, an analysis of the influencing variables of the proposed formulation has been performed. Also, a simplified and efficient numerical model has been obtained and validated with several tests performed in this PhD Thesis for simulating the bond in corroded and non-corroded steel bars. Finally, a proposal for the assessment of corrosion-damaged beams with stress field models including bond assessment with the proposed formulation is presented. The conclusions raised in this work have allowed a realistic and reliable bond assessment in corroded steel bars. Furthermore, bond assessment has been included within the context of structural safety verifications in corrosion-damaged reinforced concrete elements.

Restauración virtual del patrimonio sonoro. Aplicación al antiguo rito hispánico

Una de las aplicaciones más interesantes de las tecnologías de Realidad Acústica Virtual es la posibilidad de recuperar el patrimonio cultural del sonido de los recintos históricos que se han perdido o cuyas características se han modificado a lo largo de los siglos. En este trabajo, las tecnologías de realidad acústica virtual se utilizan para tratar de reconstruir virtualmente el sonido producido en las actividades litúrgicas del antiguo rito hispánico. Bajo este nombre se conoce a la liturgia que celebraban los cristianos de la península ibérica hasta su prohibición, en favor del culto romano, a mediados del siglo XI. El rito hispánico -también conocido como rito visigótico-mozárabe- es una de las manifestaciones culturales más interesantes de la Alta Edad Media en occidente. Se trata de un patrimonio cultural desaparecido, tanto desde el punto de vista de las señales sonoras que lo integraban -ya que la mayoría de las melodías que conformaban el rito se han perdido- como desde el punto de vista de los espacios en los que se desarrollaba, debido a que las iglesias conservadas de la época han experimentado modificaciones a lo largo de los siglos que alteran sus condiciones acústicas con respecto a las que tenían en el periodo de vigencia de esta liturgia. Para llevar a cabo este proyecto, se han realizado modelos acústicos digitales de un grupo representativo de iglesias prerrománicas de la Península Ibérica en su estado primitivo. Se ha procurado que las iglesias seleccionadas representen la variedad de comportamientos acústicos esperables en este tipo de edificios. Con este objetivo, se han elegido cinco iglesias prerrománicas que presentan diferencias sustanciales en los parámetros que, a priori, van a influir en mayor manera a su comportamiento acústico: el volumen del recinto, la forma de la planta y el tipo de cubierta. El proceso de creación de los modelos acústicos digitales de las iglesias se ha dividido en dos fases: en la primera se han creado modelos de los edificios en su estado actual, que se han validado a partir de los datos obtenidos en mediciones acústicas realizadas in situ; a partir de los modelos validados de las iglesias en su estado actual, en la segunda fase se han generado los modelos acústicos digitales correspondientes al estado primitivo de las mismas, modificando los modelos anteriores de acuerdo con las hipótesis de reconstrucción propuestas en las investigaciones arqueológicas más recientes. Se han realizado grabaciones en cámara anecoica de una serie de piezas del repertorio original del canto mozárabe. Las grabaciones se han llevado a cabo con un array esférico compuesto por 32 micrófonos, con objeto de obtener información sobre la directividad de la emisión sonora de los cantantes, que se aplicará en las auralizaciones. Finalmente, se han realizado diversas auralizaciones, teniendo en cuenta diferentes configuraciones litúrgicas que eran usuales en este rito. ABSTRACT One of the most interesting applications of the Acoustic Virtual Reality technologies is the possibility to recover the cultural heritage of the sound of the historical sites that have been lost or whose characteristics have been modified through time. In this work, Acoustic Virtual Reality technologies are used to try to reconstruct virtually the sound produced in the liturgical activities of the Hispanic Rite. This is the name given to the liturgy celebrated by Christians of the Iberian Peninsula prior to the introduction of the Roman cult in the mid-eleventh century. The Hispanic Rite (also known as Visigothic or Mozarabic rite) is one of the most interesting cultural manifestations of the Middle Ages. It is a lost cultural heritage, both from the point of view of the sound signals that were used since the majority of the melodies that conformed the rite have been lost, and from the point of view of the spaces in which this liturgy was celebrated, because the churches preserved from that era have changed over the centuries altering its acoustic conditions respect to which they were in the period in which this liturgy was in effect. To carry out this project, acoustic models of a representative group of the pre-Romanesque churches in the Iberian Peninsula have been made in his primitive state. To select the sample of buildings to study, efforts have been made to ensure that the selected churches were representative of the range of expected acoustic behaviors in this type of buildings. Five churches have been selected, showing differences in the parameters that have the greatest influence on their acoustic behavior: the enclosure volume, the shape of the floor plan and the type of roof. The process of creating digital acoustic models of the churches has been divided into two phases. In the first phase acoustic models of the churches in its current state have been created. These models have been validated with the data obtained from in situ acoustic measurements. From the validated models of churches in its current state, in the second phase, changes in the acoustic models have been performed in order to represent the primitive state of the churches, according to the historical reconstruction hypothesis that have been proposed in the most recent archaeological investigations. Anechoic recordings of a series of pieces of the original Mozarabic Chant repertoire have been recorded. The recordings were made with a spherical array composed of 32 microphones, in order to obtain information on the directivity of the sound emission of the singers. These directivity data will be used to simulate the directional radiation of the sound sources in the auralizations. Finally, auralizations were produced corresponding to different liturgical configurations which were common in this rite.

Un entendimiento infraestructural del proyecto arquitectónico

Un entendimiento infraestructural del proyecto arquitectónico Este trabajo de tesis reivindica la pertinencia de la lógica infraestructural como herramienta de proyecto arquitectónico en el territorio urbano contemporáneo, a través del relato del tránsito que se produce entre las décadas de 1960 y 1970 y el final del siglo XX, desde unos sistemas urbanos centrales, vectoriales y ‘modernos’ hacia unos sistemas policéntricos, organizados según modelos de campos y ‘contemporáneos’. Las infraestructuras han sido tradicionalmente objeto de interés para generaciones de arquitectos y urbanistas que, bien desde su condición plástica más pregnante, bien desde una intuición de su capacidad organizativa, han sido fascinados por la irrupción en el territorio de estos elementos generalmente ajenos al proyecto arquitectónico. Los proyectos que durante décadas han explorado la posibilidad de habitar estas grandes estructuras, o de proyectar con su lenguaje y su escala, han resultado en un acercamiento a la capacidad de lo infraestructural como herramienta de proyecto limitada a cuestiones morfotipológicas. Sin embargo, a partir de un estudio de la infraestructura ‘clásica’ como aquella resultado de la manifestación de las redes de abastecimiento y conectividad básicas, se desvela una naturaleza de lo infraestructural que trasciende su expresión formal conocida y explora su capacidad performativa, como sistema de relaciones, como orden topológico, como soporte flexible para la actividad espontánea y no anticipada. A partir del trabajo de diversos autores y de una selección de proyectos de distinta índole –la mayoría no construidos– se muestra cómo la irrupción de una conciencia relacional, así como la problemática moderna de afrontar los procesos de generación de una ‘nueva ciudad para una nueva sociedad’, motivan la búsqueda de sistemas de generación y control de ‘forma colectiva’ adecuados a un modelo urbano contemporáneo. Transitando por los escritos de Fumihiko Maki en Investigations in Collective Form, Reyner Banham en Megastructure, o Shadrach Woods en The Man in the Street durante los 60 y 70 y, más recientemente, de Stan Allen en Points + Lines, Edward Soja en Postmetropolis o Frei Otto en Occupying and Connecting, se traza esta historia semántica de lo infraestructural desde lo tipológico hasta una noción ampliada que resulta pertinente para operar en el territorio contemporáneo postmetropolitano. Para ello el trabajo plantea, por un lado, la descripción del contexto urbano que podemos asumir como contemporáneo, su evolución y sus características principales. Por otro lado, se explora la formación de esta noción de entendimiento infraestructural en las últimas décadas desde enfoques complementarios. Una introducción describe las condiciones de contexto en las que este estudio doctoral adquiere su pertinencia: el tránsito relativamente reciente desde un modelo vectorial y clásico de ocupación del territorio, al modelo contemporáneo disperso y policéntrico propio del modelo de campos. Un bloque central de tres capítulos analiza ‘lo infraestructural’ como expresión de una arquitectura de las relaciones, como soporte para una sociedad en cambio y como lógica proyectual, no ligada a una forma dada. La última parte, a modo de epílogo, describe el territorio urbano contemporáneo, sus cualidades básicas y la capacidad de las lógicas infraestructurales enunciadas en los capítulos anteriores para operar en él. Un último apartado de conclusiones, establece las bases de una línea de investigación abierta acerca de la operatividad actual de estos sistemas en el proyecto de arquitectura. ABSTRACT An infrastructural understanding of architectural design This thesis project claims for the suitability of infrastructural logics as a design tool within contemporary urban territories. This claim is illustrated by means of a report on the transit between the 60–70’s decades and the end of the 20th century, ranging from vector, central, ‘modern’ urban systems, towards polycentric ‘contemporary’ urban patterns, arranged following field models. Infrastructures have been traditionally on the spot for generations of architects and urban planners who, due to either their aesthetical condition, or an intuition of their organizational capacity, have been fascinated by the bursting of these elements in the territory. Projects which have explored the possibility to inhabit these huge structures, or to design with its language or scale for decades, have turned out to be always limited to morphological-typological issues. However, from the base of a research on ‘classic’ infrastructure –understood as the outcome of supplies and connectivity basic networks– a new nature of infrastructure is revealed, going beyond its known formal expression and exploring its potential to perform as a system of relationships, as a topological pattern, or as a flexible support for spontaneous and unanticipated activity. The breakthrough of a relational consciousness, as well as the modern concern about the generation of ‘a new city for a new society’ are shown, through the works of several authors and a selection of heterogeneous mostly-unbuilt projects. This semantic history of infrastructures, regarding not only typologies but also a broader concept able to operate in contemporary postmetropolitan territory, is drawn by following the paths of Fumihiko Maki in Investigations in Collective Form, Reyner Banham in Megastructure, or Shadrach Woods in The Man in the Street during the 60’s and 70’s and, lately, those of Stan Allen in Points + Lines, Edward Soja in Postmetropolis or Frei Otto in Occupying and Connecting. In order to do so, this thesis project sets, on one hand, a description of the urban context which can be assumed as contemporary, as well as its evolution and main features. On the other hand, complementary approaches help go deep into how this notion of infrastructural insight within the last decades has been created. An introduction describes the contextual conditions for this thesis project to become relevant: the relatively recent transit from a classic spatial occupation pattern, to the contemporary, disperse and polycentric pattern inherent to field models. A three-chapters core analyzes the infrastructures as the expression of an architecture of relations, as well as a support for a changing society and as a formless design logic. The last part, an epilogue, describes the urban contemporary territory and the suitability of the infrastructural logics to operate in it. A final conclusive section, lays the foundations for an open line of research on present functionality of these systems in architectural designs.

Nonuniformity of the constitutive law parameters for shear rupture and quasistatic nucleation to dynamic rupture: a physical model of earthquake generation processes.

Based on the recent high-resolution laboratory experiments on propagating shear rupture, the constitutive law that governs shear rupture processes is discussed in view of the physical principles and constraints, and a specific constitutive law is proposed for shear rupture. It is demonstrated that nonuniform distributions of the constitutive law parameters on the fault are necessary for creating the nucleation process, which consists of two phases: (i) a stable, quasistatic phase, and (ii) the subsequent accelerating phase. Physical models of the breakdown zone and the nucleation zone are presented for shear rupture in the brittle regime. The constitutive law for shear rupture explicitly includes a scaling parameter Dc that enables one to give a common interpretation to both small scale rupture in the laboratory and large scale rupture as earthquake source in the Earth. Both the breakdown zone size Xc and the nucleation zone size L are prescribed and scaled by Dc, which in turn is prescribed by a characteristic length lambda c representing geometrical irregularities of the fault. The models presented here make it possible to understand the earthquake generation process from nucleation to unstable, dynamic rupture propagation in terms of physics. Since the nucleation process itself is an immediate earthquake precursor, deep understanding of the nucleation process in terms of physics is crucial for the short-term (or immediate) earthquake prediction.

Magnetic activity and differential rotation in the young Sun-like stars KIC 7985370 and KIC 7765135

Aims. We present a detailed study of the two Sun-like stars KIC 7985370 and KIC 7765135, to determine their activity level, spot distribution, and differential rotation. Both stars were previously discovered by us to be young stars and were observed by the NASA Kepler mission. Methods. The fundamental stellar parameters (vsini, spectral type, T_eff, log g, and [Fe/H]) were derived from optical spectroscopy by comparison with both standard-star and synthetic spectra. The spectra of the targets allowed us to study the chromospheric activity based on the emission in the core of hydrogen Hα and Ca ii infrared triplet (IRT) lines, which was revealed by the subtraction of inactive templates. The high-precision Kepler photometric data spanning over 229 days were then fitted with a robust spot model. Model selection and parameter estimation were performed in a Bayesian manner, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Results. We find that both stars are Sun-like (of G1.5 V spectral type) and have an age of about 100–200 Myr, based on their lithium content and kinematics. Their youth is confirmed by their high level of chromospheric activity, which is comparable to that displayed by the early G-type stars in the Pleiades cluster. The Balmer decrement and flux ratio of their Ca ii-IRT lines suggest that the formation of the core of these lines occurs mainly in optically thick regions that are analogous to solar plages. The spot model applied to the Kepler photometry requires at least seven persistent spots in the case of KIC 7985370 and nine spots in the case of KIC 7765135 to provide a satisfactory fit to the data. The assumption of the longevity of the star spots, whose area is allowed to evolve with time, is at the heart of our spot-modelling approach. On both stars, the surface differential rotation is Sun-like, with the high-latitude spots rotating slower than the low-latitude ones. We found, for both stars, a rather high value of the equator-to-pole differential rotation (dΩ ≈ 0.18 rad d^-1), which disagrees with the predictions of some mean-field models of differential rotation for rapidly rotating stars. Our results agree instead with previous works on solar-type stars and other models that predict a higher latitudinal shear, increasing with equatorial angular velocity, that can vary during the magnetic cycle.

Near-shore wave power characterized with a remotely controlled surface vehicle in Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, WA

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Modelling frontal discontinuities in wind fields

A Bayesian procedure for the retrieval of wind vectors over the ocean using satellite borne scatterometers requires realistic prior near-surface wind field models over the oceans. We have implemented carefully chosen vector Gaussian Process models; however in some cases these models are too smooth to reproduce real atmospheric features, such as fronts. At the scale of the scatterometer observations, fronts appear as discontinuities in wind direction. Due to the nature of the retrieval problem a simple discontinuity model is not feasible, and hence we have developed a constrained discontinuity vector Gaussian Process model which ensures realistic fronts. We describe the generative model and show how to compute the data likelihood given the model. We show the results of inference using the model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods on both synthetic and real data.