Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

The circadian response of intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells

Intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGC) signal environmental light level to the central circadian clock and contribute to the pupil light reflex. It is unknown if ipRGC activity is subject to extrinsic (central) or intrinsic (retinal) network-mediated circadian modulation during light entrainment and phase shifting. Eleven younger persons (18–30 years) with no ophthalmological, medical or sleep disorders participated. The activity of the inner (ipRGC) and outer retina (cone photoreceptors) was assessed hourly using the pupil light reflex during a 24 h period of constant environmental illumination (10 lux). Exogenous circadian cues of activity, sleep, posture, caffeine, ambient temperature, caloric intake and ambient illumination were controlled. Dim-light melatonin onset (DLMO) was determined from salivary melatonin assay at hourly intervals, and participant melatonin onset values were set to 14 h to adjust clock time to circadian time. Here we demonstrate in humans that the ipRGC controlled post-illumination pupil response has a circadian rhythm independent of external light cues. This circadian variation precedes melatonin onset and the minimum ipRGC driven pupil response occurs post melatonin onset. Outer retinal photoreceptor contributions to the inner retinal ipRGC driven post-illumination pupil response also show circadian variation whereas direct outer retinal cone inputs to the pupil light reflex do not, indicating that intrinsically photosensitive (melanopsin) retinal ganglion cells mediate this circadian variation.

Response to "a step in the right direction : commentary on expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in youth"

The figure Beets took exception to displays sex‐ and age‐specific median values of aggregated published expected values for pedometer determined physical activity.

Development of the response coefficient-root function method for the transient vibration serviceability design of flat concrete floors

The vibration serviceability limit state is an important design consideration for two-way, suspended concrete floors that is not always well understood by many practicing structural engineers. Although the field of floor vibration has been extensively developed, at present there are no convenient design tools that deal with this problem. Results from this research have enabled the development of a much-needed, new method for assessing the vibration serviceability of flat, suspended concrete floors in buildings. This new method has been named, the Response Coefficient-Root Function (RCRF) method. Full-scale, laboratory tests have been conducted on a post-tensioned floor specimen at Queensland University of Technology’s structural laboratory. Special support brackets were fabricated to perform as frictionless, pinned connections at the corners of the specimen. A series of static and dynamic tests were performed in the laboratory to obtain basic material and dynamic properties of the specimen. Finite-element-models have been calibrated against data collected from laboratory experiments. Computational finite-element-analysis has been extended to investigate a variety of floor configurations. Field measurements of floors in existing buildings are in good agreement with computational studies. Results from this parametric investigation have led to the development of new approach for predicting the design frequencies and accelerations of flat, concrete floor structures. The RCRF method is convenient tool to assist structural engineers in the design for the vibration serviceability limit-state of in-situ concrete floor systems.

Early osteogenic response of osteoprogenitor cells on modified titanium implant surfaces leads to improved osteogenesis

Background: Implant surface micro-roughness and hydrophilicity are known to improve the osteogenic differentiation potential of osteoprogenitor cells. This study was aimed to determine whether topographically and chemically modified titanium implant surfaces stimulate an initial osteogenic response in osteoprogenitor cells, which leads to their improved osteogenesis. ----- ----- Methods: Statistical analysis of microarray gene expression profiling data available from studies (at 72 hours) on sand-blasted, large grit acid etched (SLA) titanium surfaces was performed. Subsequently, human osteoprogenitor cells were cultured on SLActive (hydrophilic SLA), SLA and polished titanium surfaces for 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days. The expression of BMP2, BMP6, BMP2K, SP1, ACVR1, FZD6, WNT5A, PDLIM7, ITGB1, ITGA2, OCN, OPN, ALP and RUNX2 were studied using qPCR. ----- ----- Results: Several functional clusters related to osteogenesis were highlighted when genes showing statistically significant differences (from microarray data at 72 hours) in expression on SLA surface (compared with control surface) were analysed using DAVID (online tool). This indicates that differentiation begins very early in response to modified titanium surfaces. At 24 hours, ACVR1 (BMP pathway), FZD6 (Wnt pathway) and SP1 (TGF-β pathway) were significantly up-regulated in cultures on the SLActive surface compared to the other surfaces. WNT5A and ITGB1 also showed higher expression on the modified surfaces. Gene expression patterns on Day 3 and Day 7 did not reveal any significant differences.----- ----- Conclusion: These results suggest that the initial molecular response of osteoprogenitor cells to modified titanium surfaces may be responsible for an improved osteogenic response via the BMP and Wnt signalling pathways.

From the bottom-up : redesigning the international legal response to anthropogenic climate change

The design of the Kyoto Protocol renders it incapable of effectively responding to the problem of anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, this article explores the opportunity to construct a new, principled legal approach to respond to climate change that is premised on nationally derived legal responses. To do so, this article considers the theoretical foundation of the international legal response to climate change – Hardin's "The Tragedy of the Commons‟ – and the systemic design faults of the Kyoto Protocol. This article also suggests four principles – a judicious mix of legal instruments, flexibility, intrinsic legal coherence, and quantifiable and achievable targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas intensity – that are necessary to guide the creation of a nationally derived legal response to climate change. This approach is intended to provide the catalyst for new bilateral and multilateral arrangements that can, with the passing of time, generate sufficient momentum to drive the creation of a new and effective cooperative international legal framework to mitigate anthropogenic climate change.