Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, to select alternatives and the development of plans for the adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future.

O papel do terceiro facilitador na conciliação de conflitos previdenciários

A conciliação judicial de conflitos previdenciários envolve, em geral, uma proposta de acordo baseada na renúncia pelo indivíduo de parte dos valores do benefício em atraso em um processo no qual a decisão contrária ao entendimento do Instituto Nacional do Segurado Social (INSS) é muito provável. Como regra, há um notório desequilíbrio de poder envolvendo, de um lado, um litigante ocasional (indivíduo) e, de outro, um litigante habitual (INSS). O presente trabalho pretende discutir qual o papel do terceiro facilitador nesse contexto, de modo a legitimar a prática existente e avançar para uma mudança de paradigma. Para tanto, parte-se da tese de que a conciliação deve ser adequada ao conflito que se pretende tratar, cabendo ao terceiro facilitador atuar de acordo com as peculiaridades desse conflito. Desse modo, propõe-se que, para o tratamento do conflito previdenciário, o conceito de conciliador deve ser entendido em termos amplos, abrangendo não apenas o conciliador leigo, mas também o juiz conciliador e o Judiciário como conciliador interinstitucional. Embora cada uma dessas atuações possua características próprias, sustenta-se que o ponto em comum é o respeito a um devido processo legal mínimo que possibilite a existência de uma base adequada de poder e que permita, assim, a tomada de uma decisão informada pelas partes. Dessa forma, a flexibilidade instrumental própria da conciliação não impediria o estabelecimento de parâmetros mínimos da atuação do conciliador. Por isso, tendo como limite a tomada de uma decisão informada, o conciliador atuaria por meio de estratégias variadas, aproximando-se e distanciando-se das partes, com maior ou menor interferência, de acordo com as características do caso apresentado. Conclui-se que, com a atuação conjunta e coordenada das diversas espécies de conciliador é possível aprimorar qualitativamente a conciliação de conflitos previdenciários.

Natural Compounds from Saffron and Bear Bile Prevent Vision Loss and Retinal Degeneration

All retinal disorders, regardless of their aetiology, involve the activation of oxidative stress and apoptosis pathways. The administration of neuroprotective factors is crucial in all phases of the pathology, even when vision has been completely lost. The retina is one of the most susceptible tissues to reactive oxygen species damage. On the other hand, proper development and functioning of the retina requires a precise balance between the processes of proliferation, differentiation and programmed cell death. The life-or-death decision seems to be the result of a complex balance between pro- and anti-apoptotic signals. It has been recently shown the efficacy of natural products to slow retinal degenerative process through different pathways. In this review, we assess the neuroprotective effect of two compounds used in the ancient pharmacopoeia. On one hand, it has been demonstrated that administration of the saffron constituent safranal to P23H rats, an animal model of retinitis pigmentosa, preserves photoreceptor morphology and number, the capillary network and the visual response. On the other hand, it has been shown that systemic administration of tauroursodeoxycholic acid (TUDCA), the major component of bear bile, to P23H rats preserves cone and rod structure and function, together with their contact with postsynaptic neurons. The neuroprotective effects of safranal and TUDCA make these compounds potentially useful for therapeutic applications in retinal degenerative diseases.

An authoring tool for decision support systems in context questions of ecological knowledge

Decision support systems (DSS) support business or organizational decision-making activities, which require the access to information that is internally stored in databases or data warehouses, and externally in the Web accessed by Information Retrieval (IR) or Question Answering (QA) systems. Graphical interfaces to query these sources of information ease to constrain dynamically query formulation based on user selections, but they present a lack of flexibility in query formulation, since the expressivity power is reduced to the user interface design. Natural language interfaces (NLI) are expected as the optimal solution. However, especially for non-expert users, a real natural communication is the most difficult to realize effectively. In this paper, we propose an NLI that improves the interaction between the user and the DSS by means of referencing previous questions or their answers (i.e. anaphora such as the pronoun reference in “What traits are affected by them?”), or by eliding parts of the question (i.e. ellipsis such as “And to glume colour?” after the question “Tell me the QTLs related to awn colour in wheat”). Moreover, in order to overcome one of the main problems of NLIs about the difficulty to adapt an NLI to a new domain, our proposal is based on ontologies that are obtained semi-automatically from a framework that allows the integration of internal and external, structured and unstructured information. Therefore, our proposal can interface with databases, data warehouses, QA and IR systems. Because of the high NL ambiguity of the resolution process, our proposal is presented as an authoring tool that helps the user to query efficiently in natural language. Finally, our proposal is tested on a DSS case scenario about Biotechnology and Agriculture, whose knowledge base is the CEREALAB database as internal structured data, and the Web (e.g. PubMed) as external unstructured information.

Commitments or prohibition? The EU antitrust dilemma. Bruegel Policy Brief 2014/01, 31 January 2014

The issue: Excluding cartels, most investigations into suspected infringements of European Union competition law are resolved with ‘commitment decisions’. The European Commission drops the case in exchange for a commitment from the company under investigation to implement measures to stop the presumed anti-competitive behaviour. Commitment decisions are considered speedier than formal sanctions (prohibition decisions) in restoring normal competitive market conditions. They have a cost, however: commitments are voluntary and are unlikely to be subject to judicial review. This reduces the European Commission’s incentive to build a robust case. Because commitment decisions do not establish any legal precedent, they provide for little guidance on the interpretation of the law. Policy challenge: The European Commission relies increasingly on commitment decisions. More transparency on the substance of allegations, and the establishment of a higher number of legal precedents, are however necessary. This applies in particular to cases that tackle antitrust issues in new areas, such as markets for digital goods, in which companies might find it difficult to assess if a certain behaviour constitutes a violation of competition rules. To ensure greater transparency and mitigate some of the drawbacks of commitment decisions, while retaining their main benefits, the full detail of the objections addressed by the European Commission to defendants should be published.

Helping Moldova stay on the EU course. Proposals for a real 'more for more' approach. EPC Policy Brief, 11 December 2013

At the Vilnius Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in November, Moldova initialled its Association Agreement including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU and became the first EaP country to meet all the requirements of their Visa Liberalisation Action Plan. 2014 may prove to be a make or break year for Moldova, with Chisinau facing a number of serious challenges. From the EU’s point of view, it could also prove to be a make or break year for the Eastern Partnership. The period following Vilnius should be a soul-searching time for the EU. Of the three pillars (AA, DCFTA, visa regime) of the Eastern Partnership, two are now being openly challenged by Russia. While the EU should not engage in a populist competition with Russia, it does need to adapt its actions to the realities on the ground. In this Policy Brief, Cristian Ghinea, Amanda Paul and Victor Chirila argue that the EU should work for greater visibility, better public diplomacy and deliver visible, tangible benefits to the Moldovan population as rapidly as possible. Not only will this help counter Russian activities, but it will also help shore up support for pro-EU reformers in the country.

SeqDoC: rapid SNP and mutation detection by direct comparison of DNA sequence chromatograms

Background: This paper describes SeqDoC, a simple, web-based tool to carry out direct comparison of ABI sequence chromatograms. This allows the rapid identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and point mutations without the need to install or learn more complicated analysis software. Results: SeqDoC produces a subtracted trace showing differences between a reference and test chromatogram, and is optimised to emphasise those characteristic of single base changes. It automatically aligns sequences, and produces straightforward graphical output. The use of direct comparison of the sequence chromatograms means that artefacts introduced by automatic base-calling software are avoided. Homozygous and heterozygous substitutions and insertion/deletion events are all readily identified. SeqDoC successfully highlights nucleotide changes missed by the Staden package 'tracediff' program. Conclusion: SeqDoC is ideal for small-scale SNP identification, for identification of changes in random mutagenesis screens, and for verification of PCR amplification fidelity. Differences are highlighted, not interpreted, allowing the investigator to make the ultimate decision on the nature of the change.

Attachment insecurity as a filter in the decoding and encoding of nonverbal behavior in close relationships

In this article, I have focused my comments on the possible associations between the cognitions related to different attachment styles, and the impact that those cognitions are likely to have on nonverbal encoding and decoding. I see attachment insecurity as acting as a filter, distorting both encoding and decoding processes. In terms of decoding, an insecure individual may appraise the situation as more threatening than it actually is, may see the attachment figure as more or less available than he or she actually is, and may make an inappropriate decision about the viability or desirability of seeking proximity to the attachment figure. Attachment insecurity is also likely to inhibit the distressed individual from expressing their distress in a way that is understood by the attachment figure and that increases the likelihood that the attachment figure will engage in supportive behavior.

Assessing the Conservation Status and Threats to Priority Plants: a threat assessment approach and case study in South-East Queensland, Australia

bstract: During the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) process in south-east Queensland, the conservation status of, and threats to, priority vascular plant taxa in the region was assessed. Characteristics of biology, demography and distribution were used to assess the species' intrinsic risk of extinction. In contrast, the threats to the taxa (their extrinsic risk of extinction) were assessed using a decision-support protocol for setting conservation targets for taxa lacking population viability analyses and habitat modelling data. Disturbance processes known or suspected to be adversely affecting the taxa were evaluated for their intensity, extent and time-scale. Expert opinion was used to provide much of the data and to assess the recommended protection areas. Five categories of intrinsic risk of extinction were recognised for the 105 priority taxa: critically endangered (43 taxa); endangered (29); vulnerable (21); rare (10); and presumed extinct (2). Only 6 of the 103 extant taxa were found to be adequately reserved and the majority were considered inadequately protected to survive the current regimes of threatening processes affecting them. Data were insufficient to calculate a protection target for one extant taxon. Over half of the taxa require all populations to be conserved as well as active management to alleviate threatening processes. The most common threats to particular taxa were competition from weeds or native species, inappropriate fire regimes, agricultural clearing, forestry, grazing by native or feral species, drought, urban development, illegal collection of plants, and altered hydrology. Apart from drought and competition from native species, these disturbances are largely influenced or initiated by human actions. Therefore, as well as increased protection of most of the taxa, active management interventions are necessary to reduce the effects of threatening processes and to enable the persistence of the taxa.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

A longitudinal study of Chinese managerial behaviour:an inside view of decision-making under the economic reform

This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

Benefits from competition:some illustrative UK cases

This study provides a powerful demonstration of the real world impact of increasedcompetition. By presenting six market case studies drawn from a variety of sectors itgives evidence of the type and magnitude of the benefits following marketinterventions to develop competition and free up the operation of these sectors. In discussing the types and form such interventions take, whether competition policy,deregulation or liberalisation, this report explores market conditions before and afterintervention, paying careful attention to both the envisaged benefits and the potentialfor negative side effects. Overall, the evidence suggests these benefits materialised,and in a number of instances proved more sizeable than anticipated. Concerns aboutharmful side effects have proved unfounded, with market stimuli impacting not only onthe price and range of goods available but also acting as a motivating force to productand process innovation. As Professor Davies points out, although active competition policy proves an importantcomponent in the competitive process, it is not sufficient in its own right. In order todeliver greater productivity, of which competition is a key driver, the UK needs a pool of resourceful entrepreneurs able to exploit changing market conditions. In order togive these people the best chance of success the framework conditions need to becorrect with strength in the complementary capabilities of innovation, investment, skillsand enterprise. Ensuring the competition framework is world class is central to the DTI’s strategy. The most recent peer review of the UK competition regime demonstrates that the UK isa strong performer, ranked third in the 2004 study, with the US first and Germanysecond. This study provides further evidence of the important role played by thatframework in delivering tangible benefits to consumers.

건설 프로젝트 프로세스 관리 효율화를 위한 영국과 미국의 BIM 현황 분석

World-wide efforts have been made to adopt BIM (Building Information Modelling) to improve the efficiency of construction project management processes lively. BIM means a shared digitized expression which provides a reliable source to make an informed decision over a physical or a functional character across all construction sectors including design, civil engineering and plant construction. The Korean Public Procurement Service mandates to use BIM for over 50 billion won public construction projects from 2012, and this will be extended to every project initiated by the Korean Public Procurement Service from 2016. This paper aims not only to investigate potential barriers which can be faced at the initial stage of BIM adoption, but also to explore possible solutions against them. For doing this, the BIM utilization strategies and action plans by US and UK public sectors which adopt BIM earlier than Korea were analysed. Based on the results of comparative analysis between US and UK, the proper guideline for BIM adoption in Korea will be suggested.

Dynamic decision networks for decision-making in self-adaptive systems:a case study

Bayesian decision theory is increasingly applied to support decision-making processes under environmental variability and uncertainty. Researchers from application areas like psychology and biomedicine have applied these techniques successfully. However, in the area of software engineering and speci?cally in the area of self-adaptive systems (SASs), little progress has been made in the application of Bayesian decision theory. We believe that techniques based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful for systems that dynamically adapt themselves at runtime to a changing environment, which is usually uncertain. In this paper, we discuss the case for the use of BNs, speci?cally Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs), to support the decision-making of self-adaptive systems. We present how such a probabilistic model can be used to support the decision making in SASs and justify its applicability. We have applied our DDN-based approach to the case of an adaptive remote data mirroring system. We discuss results, implications and potential bene?ts of the DDN to enhance the development and operation of self-adaptive systems, by providing mechanisms to cope with uncertainty and automatically make the best decision.

Propylene glycol intake from medications used on paediatric intensive care

Background: There are increasing reports of propylene glycol (PG) toxicity, which is used in many medications as a solvent for water-insoluble drugs. Polypharmacy may increase PG exposure in vulnerable PICU patients who may accumulate PG due to compromised liver and renal function. The study aim was to quantify PG intake in PICU patients and attitudes of clinicians towards PG. Methods: A snapshot of 50 patients’ medication intake was collected. Other data collected included age, weight, diagnosis, lactate levels and renal function. Manufacturers were contacted for PG content and then converted to mg/kg. Excipients in formulations that compete with the PG metabolism pathway were recorded. The Intensivists opinions on PG intake was sought via e-survey. Results: The 50 patients were prescribed 62 drugs and 83 formulations, 43/83 (52 %) were parenteral formulations. Sixteen formulations contained PG, 2/16 were parenteral, 6/16 unlicensed preparations. Thirty-eight patients received drugs with PG. PG intake ranged from 0.002 mg/kg/day to 250 mg/kg/day, with 29/38 receiving formulations with concomitant pathway competing excipients. The total amount could not be quantified in two cases due to lack of availability of information from the manufacturer. Four commonly used formulations contributed to higher intakes of PG. Only 1/16intensivists was aware of PG content in drugs, 16/16 would actively change therapy if intake was above European Medicines Agency recommendations. Conclusions: Certain formulations used on PICU can considerably increase PG exposure to patients. These should be highlighted to the clinician to make an informed decision regarding risks versus benefits in continuing that drug or formulation.