Effects of increased pCO(2) and temperature on the North Atlantic spring bloom. I. The phytoplankton community and biogeochemical response

The North Atlantic spring bloom is one of the largest annual biological events in the ocean, and is characterized by dominance transitions from siliceous (diatoms) to calcareous (coccolithophores) algal groups. To study the effects of future global change on these phytoplankton and the biogeochemical cycles they mediate, a shipboard continuous culture experiment (Ecostat) was conducted in June 2005 during this transition period. Four treatments were examined: (1) 12 degrees C and 390 ppm CO2 (ambient control), (2) 12 degrees C and 690 ppm CO2 (high pCO(2)) (3) 16 degrees C and 390 ppm CO2 (high temperature), and (4) 16 degrees C and 690 ppm CO2 ('greenhouse'). Nutrient availability in all treatments was designed to reproduce the low silicate conditions typical of this late stage of the bloom. Both elevated pCO(2) and temperature resulted in changes in phytoplankton community structure. Increased temperature promoted whole community photosynthesis and particulate organic carbon (POC) production rates per unit chlorophyll a. Despite much higher coccolithophore abundance in the greenhouse treatment, particulate inorganic carbon production (calcification) was significantly decreased by the combination of increased pCO(2) and temperature. Our experiments suggest that future trends during the bloom could include greatly reduced export of calcium carbonate relative to POC, thus providing a potential negative feedback to atmospheric CO2 concentration. Other trends with potential climate feedback effects include decreased community biogenic silica to POC ratios at higher temperature. These shipboard experiments suggest the need to examine whether future pCO2 and temperature increases on longer decadal timescales will similarly alter the biological and biogeochemical dynamics of the North Atlantic spring bloom.

A trait specific model of competition in a spatially structured plant community

John Warren and Chris Topping (2004). A trait specific model of competition in a spatially structured plant community. Ecological Modelling, 180 pp.477-485 RAE2008

An empirical examination of risk equalisation in a regulated community rated health insurance market

Despite universal access entitlements to the public healthcare system in Ireland, over half the population is covered by voluntary private health insurance. The market operates on the basis of community rating, open enrolment and lifetime cover. A set of minimum benefits also exists, and two risk equalisation schemes have been put in place but neither was implemented. These schemes have proved highly controversial. To date, the debate has primarily consisted of qualitative arguments. This study adds a quantitative element by analysing a number of pertinent issues. A model of a community rated insurance market is developed, which shows that community rating can only be maintained in a competitive market if all insurers in the market have the same risk profile as the market overall. This has relevance to the Irish market in the aftermath of a Supreme Court decision to set aside risk equalisation. Two reasons why insurers’ risk profiles might differ are adverse selection and risk selection. Evidence is found of the existence of both forms of selection in the Irish market. A move from single rate community rating to lifetime community rating in Australia had significant consequences for take-up rates and the age profile of the insured population. A similar move has been proposed in Ireland. It is found that, although this might improve the stability of community rating in the short term, it would not negate the need for risk equalisation. If community rating were to collapse then risk rating might result. A comparison of the Irish, Australian and UK health insurance markets suggests that community rating encourages higher take-up among older consumers than risk rating. Analysis of Irish hospital discharge figures suggests that this yields significant savings for the Irish public healthcare system. This thesis has implications for government policy towards private health insurance in Ireland.

The quality of diabetes care in the community: practice, policy and culture

Aim: Diabetes is an important barometer of health system performance. This chronic condition is a source of significant morbidity, premature mortality and a major contributor to health care costs. There is an increasing focus internationally, and more recently nationally, on system, practice and professional-level initiatives to promote the quality of care. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the ‘quality chasm’ around the organisation and delivery of diabetes care in general practice, to explore GPs’ attitudes to engaging in quality improvement activities and to examine efforts to improve the quality of diabetes care in Ireland from practice to policy. Methods: Quantitative and qualitative methods were used. As part of a mixed methods sequential design, a postal survey of 600 GPs was conducted to assess the organization of care. This was followed by an in-depth qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 31 GPs from urban and rural areas. The qualitative methodology was also used to examine GPs’ attitudes to engaging in quality improvement. Data were analysed using a Framework approach. A 2nd observation study was used to assess the quality of care in 63 practices with a special interest in diabetes. Data on 3010 adults with Type 2 diabetes from 3 primary care initiatives were analysed and the results were benchmarked against national guidelines and standards of care in the UK. The final study was an instrumental case study of policy formulation. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 members of the Expert Advisory Group (EAG) for Diabetes. Thematic analysis was applied to the data using 3 theories of the policy process as analytical tools. Results: The survey response rate was 44% (n=262). Results suggested care delivery was largely unstructured; 45% of GPs had a diabetes register (n=157), 53% reported using guidelines (n=140), 30% had formal call recall system (n=78) and 24% had none of these organizational features (n=62). Only 10% of GPs had a formal shared protocol with the local hospital specialist diabetes team (n=26). The lack of coordination between settings was identified as a major barrier to providing optimal care leading to waiting times, overburdened hospitals and avoidable duplication. The lack of remuneration for chronic disease management had a ripple effect also creating costs for patients and apathy among GPs. There was also a sense of inertia around quality improvement activities particularly at a national level. This attitude was strongly influenced by previous experiences of change in the health system. In contrast GP’s spoke positively about change at a local level which was facilitated by a practice ethos, leadership and special interest in diabetes. The 2nd quantitative study found that practices with a special interest in diabetes achieved a standard of care comparable to the UK in terms of the recording of clinical processes of care and the achievement of clinical targets; 35% of patients reached the HbA1c target of <6.5% compared to 26% in England and Wales. With regard to diabetes policy formulation, the evolving process of action and inaction was best described by the Multiple Streams Theory. Within the EAG, the formulation of recommendations was facilitated by overarching agreement on the “obvious” priorities while the details of proposals were influenced by personal preferences and local capacity. In contrast the national decision-making process was protracted and ambiguous. The lack of impetus from senior management coupled with the lack of power conferred on the EAG impeded progress. Conclusions: The findings highlight the inconsistency of diabetes care in Ireland. The main barriers to optimal diabetes management center on the organization and coordination of care at the systems level with consequences for practice, providers and patients. Quality improvement initiatives need to stimulate a sense of ownership and interest among frontline service providers to address the local sense of inertia to national change. To date quality improvement in diabetes care has been largely dependent the “special interest” of professionals. The challenge for the Irish health system is to embed this activity as part of routine practice, professional responsibility and the underlying health care culture.

Crossing the cultural divide: assessing the needs of a local immigrant community

Gemstone Team CARE (Community Assessment of Resident Experiences)

Specializing pedestrian maps to address the needs of people using wheelchairs: a case study in community-sustainable information systems

Gemstone Team FASTR (Finding Alternative Specialized Travel Routes)

Accuracy of proactive case finding for mental disorders by community informants in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Accurate detection of persons in need of mental healthcare is crucial to reduce the treatment gap between psychiatric burden and service use in low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries. AIMS: To evaluate the accuracy of a community-based proactive case-finding strategy (Community Informant Detection Tool, CIDT), involving pictorial vignettes, designed to initiate pathways for mental health treatment in primary care settings. METHOD: Community informants using the CIDT identified screen positive (n = 110) and negative persons (n = 85). Participants were then administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). RESULTS: The CIDT has a positive predictive value of 0.64 (0.68 for adults only) and a negative predictive value of 0.93 (0.91 for adults only). CONCLUSIONS: The CIDT has promising detection properties for psychiatric caseness. Further research should investigate its potential to increase demand for, and access to, mental health services.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

Law in the community: the University of Greenwich/Greenwich Association of Disabled People Centre for Independent Living (GAD) research project

The GAD Advocacy Service is funded by the London Borough of Greenwich Directorate of Neighbourhood Services; its remit to support disabled people experiencing Hate Crime, Domestic Violence and Harassment. Run by disabled personnel and giving advice to all disabled people it is unique in London. Since its inception in 2004, the Advocacy Service has been stretched to its limit - there is a need to extend the remit of the Advocacy Service to give specialist legal advice on other issues. In 2003, the CEDRM-UK project was set up in the University of Greenwich Law Department as part of the Disability Rights Promotion International Legal Education and Research Project; its objectives were firstly, to facilitate the collection of data on the effectiveness of legislation in promoting the rights of disabled persons; and secondly, to pilot new methods in teaching and training in Human Rights Law – students acquire an expertise in Human Rights Law through research into the practical application of legislation relating to civil and human rights in the daily life of the community. In July 2007, GAD and CEDRM-UK embarked on a joint project to report on the work of the Advocacy Service and to create a database to support its caseload. The 2008-9 Project team will report on their work and findings relating to facilitating equality in the workplace; the inclusion of cancer, HIV and multiple sclerosis within the legal definition of disability and the implications of the statutory duty to promote disability equality for the provision of extracurricular activities for schoolchildren. [From the Author]

Response of a floodplain fish community to river-floodplain connectivity: natural versus managed reconnection

To restore lateral connectivity in highly regulated river-floodplain systems, it has become necessary to implement localized, "managed" connection flows, made possible using floodplain irrigation infrastructure. These managed flows contrast with "natural", large-scale, overbank flood pulses. We compared the effects of a managed and a natural connection event on (i) the composition of the large-bodied fish community and (ii) the structure of an endangered catfish population of a large floodplain lake. The change in community composition following the managed connection was not greater than that exhibited between seasons or years during disconnection. By contrast, the change in fish community structure following the natural connection was much larger than that attributed to background, within-and between-year variability during disconnection. Catfish population structure only changed significantly following the natural flood. While the natural flood increased various population rates of native fishes, it also increased those of non-native carp, a pest species. To have a positive influence on native biodiversity, environmental flows may need to be delivered to floodplains in a way that simulates the properties of natural flood pulses. A challenge, however, will be managing river-floodplain connectivity to benefit native more than non-native species.

High-resolution view of the spring bloom initiation and net community production in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean using glider data

In the Southern Ocean, there is increasing evidence that seasonal to subseasonal temporal scales, and meso- to submesoscales play an important role in understanding the sensitivity of ocean primary productivity to climate change. This drives the need for a high-resolution approach to re- solving biogeochemical processes. In this study, 5.5 months of continuous, high-resolution (3 h, 2 km horizontal resolution) glider data from spring to summer in the Atlantic Subantarctic Zone is used to investigate: (i) the mechanisms that drive bloom initiation and high growth rates in the region and (ii) the seasonal evolution of water column production and respiration. Bloom initiation dates were analysed in the context of upper ocean boundary layer physics highlighting sensitivities of different bloom detection methods to different environmental processes. Model results show that in early spring (September to mid-November) increased rates of net community production (NCP) are strongly affected by meso- to submesoscale features. In late spring/early summer (late-November to mid-December) seasonal shoaling of the mixed layer drives a more spatially homogenous bloom with maximum rates of NCP and chlorophyll biomass. A comparison of biomass accumulation rates with a study in the North Atlantic highlights the sensitivity of phytoplankton growth to fine-scale dynamics and emphasizes the need to sample the ocean at high resolution to accurately resolve phytoplankton phenology and improve our ability to estimate the sensitivity of the biological carbon pump to climate change.

Can benthic community structure be used to predict the process of bioturbation in real ecosystems

Disentangling the roles of environmental change and natural environmental variability on biologically mediated ecosystem processes is paramount to predict future marine ecosystem functioning. Bioturbation, the biogenic mixing of sediments, has a regulating role in marine biogeochemical processes. However, our understanding of bioturbation as a community level process and of its environmental drivers is still limited by loose use of terminology, and a lack of consensus about what bioturbation is. To help resolve these challenges, this empirical study investigated the links between four different attributes of bioturbation (bioturbation depth, activity and distance, and biodiffusive transport); the ability of an index of bioturbation (BPc) to predict each of them; and their relation to seasonality, in a shallow coastal system – the Western Channel Observatory, UK. Bioturbation distance depended on changes in benthic community structure, while the other three attributes were more directly influenced by seasonality in food availability. In parallel, BPc successfully predicted bioturbation distance but not the other attributes of bioturbation. This study therefore highlights that community bioturbation results from this combination of processes responding to environmental variability at different time-scales. However, community level measurements of bioturbation across environmental variability are still scarce, and BPc is calculated using commonly available data on benthic community structure and the functional classification of invertebrates. Therefore, BPc could be used to support the growth of landscape scale bioturbation research, but future uses of the index need to consider which bioturbation attributes the index actually predicts. As BPc predicts bioturbation distance, estimated here using a random-walk model applicable to community settings, studies using either of the metrics should be directly comparable and contribute to a more integrated future for bioturbation research.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Using WebCT to Support a Community of Practice

Reflecting a view of “teaching as both an intellectual and practical activity” the Queen’s University Bachelor of Education program has multi-week in-school practicum sessions separated by periods of on-campus course work. The expectation is that teacher candidates will bring together theory and practice as they reflect upon their daily classroom experiences. The reality often is that, while isolated from the university environment and caught up in the pressures of teaching, little deep reflection takes place. For reflection and critical examination of experience to occur, teacher candidates need to share and discuss on a daily basis their practice teaching experience. For the past few years, students in my secondary school mathematics curriculum course, through a WebCT based conference, have been provided, while away from campus, with a place for on-going sharing of teaching stories and dilemmas. In the Fall of 2004 eight-five percent of the class took part in the discussions, posting a total of 667 messages over a 9 week period. In an effort to increase the value of this practicum conference we have analysed the topic threads arising in the conversation, surveyed the participants concerning their impressions of the sharing experience, and conducted in-depth interviews with a sampling of the class. This session will present the results of this study and provide an opportunity to discuss ways in which an online discussion can support the building of community and the exchange of experience while students in professional programs are disbursed in practice/clinical settings.