Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Lognormal Distribution Applied to Failure Time Analysis

There are several versions of the lognormal distribution in the statistical literature, one is based in the exponential transformation of generalized normal distribution (GN). This paper presents the Bayesian analysis for the generalized lognormal distribution (logGN) considering independent non-informative Jeffreys distributions for the parameters as well as the procedure for implementing the Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior distributions of parameters. The results are used to analyze failure time models with right-censored and uncensored data. The proposed method is illustrated using actual failure time data of computers.

Mutagenicity and DNA adduct formation of PAH, nitro-PAH, and oxy-PAH fractions of atmospheric particulate matter from Sao Paulo, Brazil

Urban particulate matter (UPM) contributes to lung cancer incidence. Here, we have studied the mutagenic activity and DNA adduct-forming ability of fractionated UPM extractable organic matter (EOM). UPM was collected with a high-volume sampler in June 2004 at two sites, one at street level adjacent to a roadway and the other inside a park within the urban area of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. UPM was extracted using dichloromethane, and the resulting EOM was separated by HPLC to obtain PAH, nitro-PAH, and oxy-PAH fractions which were tested for mutagenicity with the Salmonella strains TA98 and YG1041 with and without S9 metabolic activation. The PAH fraction from both sites showed negligible mutagenic activity in both strains. The highest mutagenic activity was found for the nitro-PAH fraction using YG1041 without metabolic activation; however, results were comparable for both sites. The nitro-PAH and oxy-PAH fractions were incubated with calf thymus DNA under reductive conditions appropriate for the activation of nitro aromatic compounds, then DNA adduct patterns and levels were determined with thin-layer chromatography (TLC) (32)p-postlabeling method using two enrichment procedures-nuclease PI digestion and butanol extraction. Reductively activated fractions from both sites produced diagonal radioactive zones (DRZ) of putative aromatic DNA adducts on thin layer plates with both enrichment procedures. No such DRZ were observed in control experiments using fractions from unexposed filters or from incubations without activating system. Total adduct levels produced by the nitro-PAH fractions were similar for both sites ranging from 30 to 45 adducts per 10(8) normal nucleotides. In contrast, the DNA binding of reductively activated oxy-PAH fractions was three times higher and the adduct pattern consisted of multiple discrete spots along the diagonal line on the thin layer plates. However, DNA adduct levels were not significantly different between the sampling sites. Both samples presented the same levels of mutagenic activity. The response in the Salmonella assay was typical of nitroaromatics. Although, more mutagenic activity was related to the nitro-PAH fraction in the Salmonella assay, the oxy-PAH fractions showed the highest DNA adduct levels. More studies are needed to elucidate the nature of the genotoxicants occurring in Sao Paulo atmospheric samples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fungos anemófilos em Porto Alegre, RS.

O conhecimento dos fungos anemófilos em determinada cidade ou região é importante para o diagnóstico etiológico e o tratamento específico das manifestações alérgicas respiratórias. Várias técnicas quantitativas e qualitativas são preconizadas para coleta e identificação desses fungos na dependência do local estudado. Nesta pesquisa, sobre esporos de fungos do ar, foi utilizado o equipamento Rotorod Sampler®, que retira a amostra do ar através de um bastão de plástico preso a um motor elétrico que o faz girar rapidamente, sendo as partículas suspensas no ar recolhidas pelo bastão. As amostras foram coletadas uma vez por semana, durante 24 horas, correspondendo a um ciclo de coleta. Foram realizadas 52 coletas entre abril de 2000 e março de 2001. Os resultados mostraram prevalência de ascosporos (50,49%), Cladosporium (17,86%), Aspergillus/Penicillium (15,03%), basidiosporos (3,84%), rusts (3,82%), Helminthosporium (2,49%), Botrytis (1,22%), Alternaria (1,19%), smuts (0,90%), Curvularia (0,87%), Nigrospora (0,61%) e Fusarium (0,08%). Não foi possível identificar 1,59% dos esporos de fungos coletados no período. O maior número de esporos foi observado nos meses de verão e o menor, durante o outono. Utilizando provas in vivo e in vitro, avaliou-se a hipersensibilidade a fungos entre 39 pacientes atópicos sofrendo de rinite e ou asma brônquica. Os testes cutâneos identificaram sensibilização em 17,94% dos pacientes, enquanto as provas sorológicas caracterizaram presença de IgE específica em 12,82% dos casos avaliados. A detecção de significativo número de esporos de fungos no ar de Porto Alegre, com muitas espécies comprovadamente alergênicas, e os índices de sensibilização observados em indivíduos atópicos confirmam a importância do estudo dos fungos anemófilos nessa cidade, com vistas a aprimorar o diagnóstico e o manejo de pacientes com manifestações alérgicas respiratórias.

Modelos dinâmicos e simulação estocástica

This paper presents new methodology for making Bayesian inference about dy~ o!s for exponential famiIy observations. The approach is simulation-based _~t> use of ~vlarkov chain Monte Carlo techniques. A yletropolis-Hastings i:U~UnLlllll 1::; combined with the Gibbs sampler in repeated use of an adjusted version of normal dynamic linear models. Different alternative schemes are derived and compared. The approach is fully Bayesian in obtaining posterior samples for state parameters and unknown hyperparameters. Illustrations to real data sets with sparse counts and missing values are presented. Extensions to accommodate for general distributions for observations and disturbances. intervention. non-linear models and rnultivariate time series are outlined.

Industry analysis of the high frequency trading industry : an assessment of the industry boundaries, environment and strategic options

O Mercado Acionário Americano evoluiu rapidamente na última década. Este tornou-se uma arquitetura aberta em que participantes com tecnologia inovadora podem competir de forma eficaz. Várias mudanças regulatórias e inovações tecnológicas permitiram mudanças profundas na estrutura do mercado. Essas mudanças, junto com o desenvolvimento tecnológico de redes de alta velocidade, agiu como um catalisador, dando origem a uma nova forma de negociação, denominada Negociação em Alta Frequência (HFT). As empresas de HFT surgiram e se apropriaram em larga escala do negócio de formação de mercado, no fornecimento de liquidez. Embora HFT tem crescido massivamente, ao longo dos últimos quatro anos, HFT perdeu rentabilidade significativamente, uma vez que mais empresas aderiram ao setor reduzindo as margens. Portanto, diante deste contexto, esta tese buscou apresentar uma breve revisão sobre a atividade de HFT, seguida de uma análise dos limites deste setor, bem como, das características do macroambiente do HFT. Para tanto, a tese realizou uma extensa revisão do histórico literário, documentos públicos qualitativos, tais como, jornais, atas de reunião e relatórios oficiais. A tese empregou um ferramental de análise, Barreiras de Entrada e Mobilidade (Porter, 1980); Modelos de Evolução Setorial (McGahan, 2004); Estrutura do Setor de Informação Intensiva (Sampler, 1998), para analisar os limites do setor de HFT. Adicionalmente, empregou as ferramentas de análise, Modelos de Evolução Setorial (McGahan, 2004) e PESTEL (JOHNSON, SCHOLES, and WHITTINGTON, 2011), para analisar o setor e o contexto que envolve o negócio de HFT. A análise concluiu que as empresas que empregam HFT para atuar e competir no mercado acionário, compoem um setor independente.

Vertical distribution of benthic invertebrate larvae during an upwelling event along a transect off the tropical Brazilian continental margin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian inference in genetic parameter estimation of visual scores in Nellore beef-cattle

The aim of this study was to estimate the components of variance and genetic parameters for the visual scores which constitute the Morphological Evaluation System (MES), such as body structure (S), precocity (P) and musculature (M) in Nellore beef-cattle at the weaning and yearling stages, by using threshold Bayesian models. The information used for this was gleaned from visual scores of 5,407 animals evaluated at the weaning and 2,649 at the yearling stages. The genetic parameters for visual score traits were estimated through two-trait analysis, using the threshold animal model, with Bayesian statistics methodology and MTGSAM (Multiple Trait Gibbs Sampler for Animal Models) threshold software. Heritability estimates for S, P and M were 0.68, 0.65 and 0.62 (at weaning) and 0.44, 0.38 and 0.32 (at the yearling stage), respectively. Heritability estimates for S, P and M were found to be high, and so it is expected that these traits should respond favorably to direct selection. The visual scores evaluated at the weaning and yearling stages might be used in the composition of new selection indexes, as they presented sufficient genetic variability to promote genetic progress in such morphological traits.

Genetic parameters of total milk yield and factors describing the shape of lactation curve in dairy buffaloes

The objective of this study was to apply factor analysis to describe lactation curves in dairy buffaloes in order to estimate the phenotypic and genetic association between common latent factors and cumulative milk yield. A total of 31 257 monthly test-day milk yield records from buffaloes belonging to herds located in the state of São Paulo were used to estimate two common latent factors, which were then analysed in a multi-trait animal model for estimating genetic parameters. Estimates of (co)variance components for the two common latent factors and cumulated 270-d milk yield were obtained by Bayesian inference using a multiple trait animal model. Contemporary group, number of milkings per day (two levels) and age of buffalo cow at calving (linear and quadratic) as covariate were included in the model as fixed effects. The additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects were included as random effects. The first common latent factor (F1) was associated with persistency of lactation and the second common latent factor (F2) with the level of production in early lactation. Heritability estimates for Fl and F2 were 0.12 and 0.07, respectively. Genetic correlation estimates between El and F2 with cumulative milk yield were positive and moderate (0.63 and 0.52). Multivariate statistics employing factor analysis allowed the extraction of two variables (latent factors) that described the shape of the lactation curve. It is expected that the response to selection to increase lactation persistency is higher than the response obtained from selecting animals to increase lactation peak. Selection for higher total milk yield would result in a favourable correlated response to increase the level of production in early lactation and the lactation persistency.

Desenvolvimento de protótipo de coletor automático destinado à coleta de amostras de água em corpos aquáticos para análise em laboratório

The aim of this approach is to describe the design and construction of a low-cost automated water sampler prototype. In recent years, there is an increasing need on the use of automated equipments for hydro climatic variables to be use in urban and rural environments. Such devices are always used to provide measured information which is of crucial importance on the development of water resources strategies at watershed scale. Actually, many research and water public institutions have been using these kinds of equipments. In most of the cases, automated equipments are expensive and need to be imported, generating a situation of technologic dependency. The prototype is based on an electronic system which controls a peristaltic pump functioning, five solenoid valves and an ultrasonic sensor connected to a datalloger. An interface with the user allows communication with a PC, when the equipment functioning parameters can be provided. The equipment has a hydraulic module composed by a 12V peristaltic pump connected to a distribution circuit composed by five solenoid valves, one of them being used to clean the circuit before each sampling procedure. Samples are collected by four 1.95 polyethylene bottles. The sampler body was made of acrylic material, with a cylindrical shape, and dimensions 0.72 m and 0.38 m height and diameter, respectively. The weight of the equipment without samples is approximately 15 kg, which infers to its portability. The prototype development total cost budget was approximately US$ 1,560.00. Laboratory tests aimed to evaluate the equipment performance and functioning demonstrated satisfactory results

Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera assemblages in two Atlantic Rainforest streams, Southeastern Brazil

Comunidades de Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera e Trichoptera (EPT) em substrato rochoso foram estudadas em dois riachos do Parque Estadual Intervales. Coletas com um amostrador de Surber (10 subamostras aleatórias, 1 m²) foram feitas mensalmente de setembro de 1999 a setembro de 2000 e trimestralmente de dezembro de 2000 a setembro de 2001 nos Ribeirões Bocaina e Água Comprida. A fauna de EPT do Ribeirão Bocaina foi mais diversificada e mais abundante do que a do Ribeirão Água Comprida. A fauna de EPT foi bastante diferente entre os dois riachos, tanto do ponto de vista da composição faunística quanto do ponto de vista funcional. Os resultados indicaram que não houve um padrão sazonal claro da variação temporal da densidade.

Prediction of Soil Properties from the Concepts of Energy Transfer in Dynamic Penetration Tests

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação da remoção de hidrocarbonetos aromáticos (BTEX) em águas utilizando materiais nanoestruturados do tipo Ti-MCM-41

Volatile Organic Compounds are pollutants coming mainly from activities that use fossil fuels. Within this class are the BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes) compounds that are considered hazardous. Among the various existing techniques for degradation of pollutants, there is advanced oxidation using H2O2 generating hidoxil radical ( OH). In this work, the mesoporous material of MCM-41 was synthesized by hydrothermal method and then was used as support, the impregnation of titanium by the method of synthesis with excess solvent to obtain the catalyst Ti-MCM-41. The catalyst was used in the reaction catalyzed removal of BTEX in water using H2O2 as oxidant. The materials were characterized by: XRD, TG/DTG, FTIR, nitrogen adsorption-desorption and FRX-EDX, in order to verify the method of impregnation of the mesoporous titanium support was effective. Catalytic tests were carried out in reactors of 20 mL containing BTEX (100.0 μg/L), H2O2 (2.0 M) and Ti-MCM-41 (2.0 g/L) in acid medium. The reaction occurred for 5 h at 60 °C and analysis were performed by gas chromatography with photoionization detector and static headspace sampler. The characterizations have proven the effectiveness of the synthesis method used and the incorporation of titanium lt in the support. The catalytic tests showed satisfactory results with conversion of more than 95 % for the studied compounds, where the catalyst 48% Ti-MCM-41 showed a higher removal efficiency of the compounds under study

Avaliação da remoção catalítica de compostos orgânicos monoaromáticos em água utilizando materiais nanoestruturados de sílica

Statistics of environmental protection agencies show that the soil has been contaminated with problems often resulting from leaks, spills and accidents during exploration, refining, transportation and storage oil operations and its derivatives. These, gasoline noteworthy, verified by releasing, to get in touch with the groundwater, the compounds BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes), substances which are central nervous system depressants and causing leukemia. Among the processes used in remediation of soil and groundwater contaminated with organic pollutants, we highlight those that use hydrogen peroxide because they are characterized by the rapid generation of chemical species of high oxidation power, especially the hydroxyl radical ( OH), superoxide (O2 -) and peridroxil (HO2 ), among other reactive species that are capable of transforming or decomposing organic chemicals. The pH has a strong effect on the chemistry of hydrogen peroxide because the formation of different radicals directly depends on the pH of the medium. In this work, the materials MCM-41 and Co-MCM-41 were synthesized and used in the reaction of BTEX removal in aqueous media using H2O2. These materials were synthesized by the hydrothermal method and the techniques used to characterize were: XRD, TG/DTG, adsorption/desorption N2, TEM and X-Ray Fluorescence. The catalytic tests were for 5 h of reaction were carried out in reactors of 20 mL, which was accompanied by the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide by molecular absorption spectrophotometry in the UV-Vis, in addition to removal of organic compounds BTEX was performed as gas chromatography with detection photoionization and flame ionization and by static headspace sampler. The characterizations proved that the materials were successfully synthesized. The catalytic tests showed satisfactory results, and the reactions containing BTEX + Co-MCM-41 + H2O2 at pH = 12.0 had the highest percentages of removal for the compounds studied

Macrofauna de ambientes não consolidados adjacentes à recifes da área de proteção ambiental dos recifes de corais Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

This study aimed to characterize, for the first time, the benthic invertebrates that inhabit the region of soft bottoms adjacent to the APARC reefs in order to situate them as an important component of infralittoral coastal areas of Northeast Brazil. Soft bottoms areas of APARC corresponds to infralittoral zones vegetated by seagrass Halodule wrightii and unvegetated infralittoral zones, both subjected to substantial hydrodynamic stress. Through scuba diving, biological and sedimentary samples of both habitats were analyzed, with a cylindrical sampler. We identified 6160 individuals belonging to 16 groups and 224 species. The most abundant macrofaunal group was Polychaeta (43%), followed by Mollusca (25%) and Crustacea (14%), what was expected for these environments. In the first chapter, regarding vegetated areas, we tested three hypotheses: the existence of differences in the faunal structure associated with H. wrightii banks submitted to different hydrodynamic conditions; the occurrence of minor temporal variations on the associated macrofauna of banks protected from hydrodynamic stress; and if the diversity of macrofauna is affected by both benthophagous predators and H. wrightii biomass. It was observed that macrofauna associated at the Exposed bank showed differences in structure when comparing the Protected bank, the granulometry of the sediments, that co-varies with the hydrodynamism, was the cause of these variations. The results also pointed to a lower temporal variation in the macrofaunal structure on the Protected bank and a negative relation between macrofaunal and benthophagous fish abundance. At the Exposed bank, a greater faunal diversity was observed, probably due to the higher seagrass biomass. The second chapter compares the vegetated and non-vegetated areas in order to test the hypothesis that due to greater seasonal stability in tropical environments, seagrass structure would act to distinguish the vegetated and non-vegetated areas macrofauna, over time. It was also expected that depositivores were the most representative invertebrates on non-vegetated environments, on the assumption that the seagrass bank would work as a source of debris to adjacent areas, enriching them. Considering all sampling periods, the total macrofauna abundance and diversity were higher in vegetated areas, when compared to non-vegetated ones. Seasonally, the structural complexity provided by Halodule differentiated more clearly the fauna from vegetated and non-vegetated areas, but only at the climatic extremes, i.e. Dry season (extreme climatic stability, with low hydronamism variation) and Rainy season (great hydrodynamism variation and probably vegetated bank burial). Furthermore, the high organic matter levels measured in the sandy banks coincided with an outstanding trophic importance of deposit feeders, proving the debris-carrying hypothesis. The last chapter focused on the non-vegetated areas, where we tested that the hypothesis infaunal halo in tropical reefs depending on local granulometry. In this context, we also tested the hypothesis that benthophagous fish predation would have an effect on the low abundance of macrofaunal groups due to the high hydrographic stress, thus allowing other predatory groups to have greater importance in these environments. Proving the hypothesis, no spatial variation, both on abundance families neither on community structure, occur along distance of the edge reefs. However, we found that complex combinations of physical factors (grain size and organic matter levels originated from local hydronamic conditions) covary with the distance from the reefs and has stronger influence on macrofauna than considered biological factors, such as predation by benthophagous fishes. Based on the main results, this study shows that unconsolidated areas around APARC reefs are noteworthy from an ecological and conservational point of view, as evidenced by the biota-environment and organismal relations, never before described for these areas

Análise hidrodinâmica e morfodinâmica do complexo estuarino do Rio Piranhas-Açu/RN, Nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study was the seasonal characterization of the morphology, sedimentology and hydrodynamic of the Açu, Cavalos and Conchas estuaries. These estuaries are inserted in a semi-arid climate area and form the mouth of the hydrographic basin of the Piranhas-Açu river, that represent the discharge of the largest watershed in the state. They are embedded in an environment consisting of a fluvial-marine floodplain, mangrove ecosystem, sandbanks, fields of dunes, spits and sandy beaches. Adjacent to the natural units are the main local socioeconomic activities (oil industry, salt industry, shrimp farming, fishing and tourism) are dependent on this river and its conservation. The environmental monitoring is necessary because it is an area under constant action of coastal processes and at high risk of oil spill. The acquisition and interpretation of hydrodynamic, sonographic and sediment data was conducted in two campaigns, dry season (2010) and rainy season (2011), using respectively the current profiler ADCP Doppler effect, the side-scan sonar and Van Veen sampler. In these estuaries: Açu, Cavalos and Conchas were identified the following types of bedforms: flatbed and Dunes 2-D and 3-D (small to medium size), generated at lower flow regime (Froude number <1). Structures such as ripples were observed in the Açu estuary mouth. The higher values of flow discharge and velocity were recorded in the Açu estuary (434,992 m³.s-¹ and 0,554 m.s-¹). In rainy season, despite the record of highest values of discharge and flow velocities at the mouth, the energy rates upstream did not differ much from the data of the dry season. However, in all estuaries were recorded an increase in speed and flow, with reservation to the flow in the Açu estuary and flow at the mouth of the Conchas estuary. Sediment grain sizes tend to increase towards the mouth of the estuary and these ranged from very fine sand to very coarse sand, medium sand fraction being the most recurrent. Based on the data acquired and analyzed, the estuaries Açu, Cavalos and Conchas are classified as mixed , dominated by waves and tides. According to their morphology, they are classified as estuaries constructed by bar and according to the classification by salinity, estuaries Conchas and Cavalos were ranked as hypersaline estuaries, and Açu as hypersaline and vertically well mixed type C