Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

The latest LGM culmination of the Garda Glacier (Italian Alps) and the onset of glacial termination. Age of glacial collapse and vegetation chronosequence

In the deglacial sequence of the largest end moraine system of the Italian Alps, we focused on the latest culmination of the Last Glacial Maximum, before a sudden downwasting of the piedmontane lobe occupying the modern lake basin. We obtained a robust chronology for this culmination and for the subsequent deglacial history by cross-radiocarbon dating of a proximal fluvioglacial plain and of a deglacial continuous lake sedimentation. We used reworked dinocysts to locate sources of glacial abrasion and to mark the input of glacial meltwater until depletion. The palynological record from postglacial lake sediments provided the first vegetation chronosequence directly reacting to the early Lateglacial withdrawal so far documented in the Alps.

Glacier collapse occurred soon after 17.46 +/- 0.2 ka cal BP, which is, the Manerba advance culmination. Basin deglaciation of several overdeepened foreland piedmont lakes on southern and northern sides of the Alps appears to be synchronous at millennial scale and near-synchronous with large-scale glacial retreat at global scale. The pioneering succession shows a first afforestation step at a median modeled age of 64 years after deglaciation, while rapid tree growth lagged 7 centuries. Between 16.4 +/- 0.16 and 15.5 +/- 0.16 ka cal BP, a regressive phase interrupted forest growth marking a Lateglacial phase of continental-dry climate predating GI-1. This event, spanning the most advanced phases of North-Atlantic H1, is consistently radiocarbon-framed at three deglacial lake records so far investigated on the Italian side of the Alps. Relationships with the Gschnitz stadial from the Alpine record of Lateglacial advances are discussed

Proposal for a Noninterferometric Test of Collapse Models in Optomechanical Systems

The test of modifications to quantum mechanics aimed at identifying the fundamental reasons behind the unobservability of quantum mechanical superpositions at the macroscale is a crucial goal of modern quantum mechanics. Within the context of collapse models, current proposals based on interferometric techniques for their falsification are far from the experimental state of the art. Here we discuss an alternative approach to the testing of quantum collapse models that, by bypassing the need for the preparation of quantum superposition states might help us addressing nonlinear stochastic mechanisms such as the one at the basis of the continuous spontaneous localization model. 

The Collapse Behaviour of Cold-formed Steel Portal Frames at Elevated Temperatures

This paper describes the results of non-linear elasto-plastic implicit dynamic finite element analyses that are used to predict the collapse behaviour of cold-formed steel portal frames at elevated temperatures. The collapse behaviour of a simple rigid-jointed beam idealisation and a more accurate semi-rigid jointed shell element idealisation are compared for two different fire scenarios. For the case of the shell element idealisation, the semi-rigidity of the cold-formed steel joints is explicitly taken into account through modelling of the bolt-hole elongation stiffness. In addition, the shell element idealisation is able to capture buckling of the cold-formed steel sections in the vicinity of the joints. The shell element idealisation is validated at ambient temperature against the results of full-scale tests reported in the literature. The behaviour at elevated temperatures is then considered for both the semi-rigid jointed shell and rigid-jointed beam idealisations. The inclusion of accurate joint rigidity and geometric non-linearity (second order analysis) are shown to affect the collapse behaviour at elevated temperatures. For each fire scenario considered, the importance of base fixity in preventing an undesirable outwards collapse mechanism is demonstrated. The results demonstrate that joint rigidity and varying fire scenarios should be considered in order to allow for conservative design.

Detecting the progenitors of core collapse supernovae

The masses and the evolutionary states of the progenitors of core-collapse supernovae are not well constrained by direct observations. Stellar evolution theory generally predicts that massive stars with initial masses less than about 30M_sol should undergo core-collapse when they are cool M-type supergiants. However the only two detections of a SN progenitor before explosion are SN1987A and SN1993J, and neither of these was an M-type supergiant. Attempting to identify the progenitors of supernovae is a difficult task, as precisely predicting the time of explosion of a massive star is impossible for obvious reasons. There are several different types of supernovae which have different spectral and photometric evolution, and how exactly these are related to the evolutionary states of the progenitor stars is not currently known. I will describe a novel project which may allow the direct identification of core-collapse supernovae progenitors on pre-explosion images of resolved, nearby galaxies. This project is now possible with the excellent image archives maintained by several facilities and will be enhanced by the new initiatives to create Virtual Observatories, the earliest of which ASTROVIRTEL is already producing results.

Observational Constraints on the Progenitors of Core-Collapse Supernovae: The Case for Missing High-Mass Stars

Over the last 15 years, the supernova community has endeavoured to directly identify progenitor stars for core-collapse supernovae discovered in nearby galaxies. These precursors are often visible as resolved stars in high-resolution images from space-and ground-based telescopes. The discovery rate of progenitor stars is limited by the local supernova rate and the availability and depth of archive images of galaxies, with 18 detections of precursor objects and 27 upper limits. This review compiles these results (from 1999 to 2013) in a distance-limited sample and discusses the implications of the findings. The vast majority of the detections of progenitor stars are of type II-P, II-L, or IIb with one type Ib progenitor system detected and many more upper limits for progenitors of Ibc supernovae (14 in all). The data for these 45 supernovae progenitors illustrate a remarkable deficit of high-luminosity stars above an apparent limit of log L/L-circle dot similar or equal to 5.1 dex. For a typical Salpeter initial mass function, one would expect to have found 13 high-luminosity and high-mass progenitors by now. There is, possibly, only one object in this time-and volume-limited sample that is unambiguously high-mass (the progenitor of SN2009ip) although the nature of that supernovae is still debated. The possible biases due to the influence of circumstellar dust, the luminosity analysis, and sample selection methods are reviewed. It does not appear likely that these can explain the missing high-mass progenitor stars. This review concludes that the community's work to date shows that the observed populations of supernovae in the local Universe are not, on the whole, produced by high-mass (M greater than or similar to 18 M-circle dot) stars. Theoretical explosions of model stars also predict that black hole formation and failed supernovae tend to occur above an initial mass of M similar or equal to 18 M-circle dot. The models also suggest there is no simple single mass division for neutron star or black-hole formation and that there are islands of explodability for stars in the 8-120 M-circle dot range. The observational constraints are quite consistent with the bulk of stars above M similar or equal to 18 M-circle dot collapsing to form black holes with no visible supernovae.

Constraints on explosive silicon burning in core-collapse supernovae from measured Ni/Fe ratios

Measurements of explosive nucleosynthesis yields in core-collapse supernovae provide tests for explosion models. We investigate constraints on explosive conditions derivable from measured amounts of nickel and iron after radioactive decays using nucleosynthesis networks with parameterized thermodynamic trajectories. The Ni/Fe ratio is for most regimes dominated by the production ratio of Ni-58/(Fe-54 + Ni-56), which tends to grow with higher neutron excess and with higher entropy. For SN 2012ec, a supernova (SN) that produced a Ni/Fe ratio of 3.4 +/- 1.2 times solar, we find that burning of a fuel with neutron excess eta approximate to 6 x 10(-3) is required. Unless the progenitor metallicity is over five times solar, the only layer in the progenitor with such a neutron excess is the silicon shell. SNe producing large amounts of stable nickel thus suggest that this deep-lying layer can be, at least partially, ejected in the explosion. We find that common spherically symmetric models of M-ZAMS less than or similar to 13 M-circle dot stars exploding with a delay time of less than one second (M-cut < 1.5 M-circle dot) are able to achieve such silicon-shell ejection. SNe that produce solar or subsolar Ni/Fe ratios, such as SN 1987A, must instead have burnt and ejected only oxygen-shell material, which allows a lower limit to the mass cut to be set. Finally, we find that the extreme Ni/Fe value of 60-75 times solar derived for the Crab cannot be reproduced by any realistic entropy burning outside the iron core, and neutrino-neutronization obtained in electron capture models remains the only viable explanation.

SN2012ca: a stripped envelope core-collapse SN interacting with dense circumstellar medium

We report optical and near-infrared observations of SN2012ca with the Public ESO Spectroscopy Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO), spread over one year since discovery. The supernova (SN) bears many similarities to SN1997cy and to other events classified as Type IIn but which have been suggested to have a thermonuclear origin with narrow hydrogen lines produced when the ejecta impact a hydrogen-rich circumstellar medium (CSM). Our analysis, especially in the nebular phase, reveals the presence of oxygen, magnesium and carbon features. This suggests a core-collapse explanation for SN2012ca, in contrast to the thermonuclear interpretation proposed for some members of this group. We suggest that the data can be explained with a hydrogen- and helium-deficient SN ejecta (Type I) interacting with a hydrogen-rich CSM, but that the explosion was more likely a Type Ic core-collapse explosion than a Type Ia thermonuclear one. This suggests that two channels (both thermonuclear and stripped envelope core-collapse) may be responsible for these SN 1997cy-like events.

Preparing for disaster: a comparative analysis of education for critical infrastructure collapse

This article explores policy approaches to educating populations for potential critical infrastructure collapse in five different countries: the UK, the US, Germany, Japan and New Zealand. ‘Critical infrastructure’ is not always easy to define, and indeed is defined slightly differently across countries – it includes entities vital to life, such as utilities (water, energy), transportation systems and communications, and may also include social and cultural infrastructure. The article is a mapping exercise of different approaches to critical infrastructure protection and preparedness education by the five countries. The exercise facilitates a comparison of the countries and enables us to identify distinctive characteristics of each country’s approach. We argue that contrary to what most scholars of security have argued, these national approaches diverge greatly, suggesting that they are shaped more by internal politics and culture than by global approaches.

Analytical Investigations 0n Collapse of Cylindrical Submarine Shells

Submarine hull structure is a watertight envelope, under hydrostatic pressure when in operation. Stiffened cylindrical shells constitute the major portion of these submarine hulls and these thin shells under compression are susceptible to buckling failure. Normally loss of stability occurs at the limit point rather than at the bifurcation point and the stability analysis has to consider the change in geometry at each load step. Hence geometric nonlinear analysis of the shell forms becomes. a necessity. External hydrostatic pressure will follow the deformed configuration of the shell and hence follower force effect has to be accounted for. Computer codes have been developed based on all-cubic axisymmetric cylindrical shell finite element and discrete ring stiffener element for linear elastic, linear buckling and geometric nonIinear analysis of stiffened cylindrical shells. These analysis programs have the capability to treat hydrostatic pressure as a radial load and as a follower force. Analytical investigations are carried out on two attack submarine cylindrical hull models besides standard benchmark problems. In each case, the analysis has been carried out for interstiffener, interdeepframe and interbulkhead configurations. The shell stiffener attachment in each of this configuration has been represented by the simply supported-simply supported, clamped-clamped and fixed-fixed boundary conditions in this study. The results of the analytical investigations have been discussed and the observations and conclusions are described. Rotation restraint at the ends is influential for interstiffener and interbulkhead configurations and the significance of axial restraint becomes predominant in the interbulkhead configuration. The follower force effect of hydrostatic pressure is not significant in interstiffener and interdeepframe configurations where as it has very high detrimental effect on buckling pressure on interbulkhead configuration. The geometric nonlinear interbulkhead analysis incorporating follower force effect gives the critical value of buckling pressure and this analysis is recommended for the determination of collapse pressure of stiffened cylindrical submarine shells.

Edexcel AS History: The Collapse of the Liberal State and the Triumph of Fascism in Italy, 1896-1943.

Esta guía ha sido escrita por un examinador y explica los requisitos de cada unidad, resume el contenido relevante de cada unidad e incluye una serie de preguntas y respuestas. Cumple los requisitos establecidos para aprobar el examen de historia del nivel Edexcel AS que pertenece al segundo ciclo de enseñanza secundaria. El tema principal del libro es el colapso del estado liberal y el triunfo del fascismo en Italia, 1896-1943, los temas secundarios son: Italia en 1896, el impacto de la Primera Guerra Mundial en Italia, la crisis económica y política de la posguerra, el aumento del fascismo en 1922, la creación del estado fascista, la política de Mussolini, y el impacto de la Segunda Guerra Mundial en Italia.

Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows from dome collapse

We present a method of simulating both the avalanche and surge components of pyroclastic flows generated by lava collapsing from a growing Pelean dome. This is used to successfully model the pyroclastic flows generated on 12 May 1996 by the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. In simulating the avalanche component we use a simple 3-fold parameterisation of flow acceleration for which we choose values using an inverse method. The surge component is simulated by a 1D hydraulic balance of sedimentation of clasts and entrainment of air away from the avalanche source. We show how multiple simulations based on uncertainty of the starting conditions and parameters, specifically location and size (mass flux), could be used to map hazard zones.