Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Development of the mammalian urethra is controlled by Fgfr2-IIIb

Development of external genitalia in mammalian embryos requires tight coordination of a complex series of morphogenetic events involving outgrowth, proximodistal and dorsoventral patterning, and epithelial tubulogenesis. Hypospadias is a congenital defect of the external genitalia that results from failure of urethral tube closure. Although this is the second most common birth defect in humans, affecting one in every 250 children, the molecular mechanisms that regulate morphogenesis of the mammalian urethra are poorly understood. We report that mice lacking the IIIb isoform of fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (Fgfr2) exhibit severe hypospadias. Urethral signaling regions, as indicated by Shh and Fgf8 expression, are established in Fgfr2-IIIb null mice; however, cell proliferation arrests prematurely and maturation of the urethral epithelium is disrupted. Fgfr2-IIIb(-/-) mutants fail to maintain the progenitor cell population required for uroepithelial renewal during tubular morphogenesis. In addition, we show that antagonism of the androgen receptor (AR) leads to loss of Fgfr2-IIIb and Fgf10 expression in the urethra, and an associated hypospadias phenotype, suggesting that these genes are downstream targets of AR during external genital development. Genitourinary defects resulting from disruption of AR activity, by either genetic or environmental factors, may therefore involve negative regulation of the Fgfr2 pathway. This represents the first example of how the developing genitourinary system integrates cues from systemically circulating steroid hormones with a locally expressed growth factor pathway.

Abundance and diversity of wild bees along gradients of heavy metal pollution

1. Wild bees are one of the most important groups of pollinators in the temperate zone. Therefore, population declines have potentially negative impacts for both crop and wildflower pollination. Although heavy metal pollution is recognized to be a problem affecting large parts of the European Union, we currently lack insights into the effects of heavy metals on wild bees. 2. We investigated whether heavy metal pollution is a potential threat to wild bee communities by comparing (i) species number, (ii) diversity and (iii) abundance as well as (iv) natural mortality of emerging bees along two independent gradients of heavy metal pollution, one at Olkusz (OLK), Poland and the other at Avonmouth (AVO), UK. We used standardized nesting traps to measure species richness and abundance of wild bees, and we recorded the heavy metal concentration in pollen collected by the red mason bee Osmia rufa as a measure of pollution. 3. The concentration of cadmium, lead and zinc in pollen collected by bees ranged from a background level in unpolluted sites [OLK: 1·3, 43·4, 99·8 (mg kg−1); AVO: 0·8, 42·0, 56·0 (mg kg−1), respectively] to a high level on sites in the vicinity of the OLK and AVO smelters [OLK: 6·7, 277·0, 440·1 (mg kg−1); AVO: 9·3, 356·2, 592·4 (mg kg−1), respectively]. 4. We found that with increasing heavy metal concentration, there was a steady decrease in the number, diversity and abundance of solitary, wild bees. In the most polluted sites, traps were empty or contained single occupants, whereas in unpolluted sites, the nesting traps collected from 4 to 5 species represented by up to ten individuals. Moreover, the proportion of dead individuals of the solitary bee Megachile ligniseca increased along the heavy metal pollution gradient at OLK from 0·2 in uncontaminated sites to 0·5 in sites with a high concentration of pollution. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our findings highlight the negative relationship between heavy metal pollution and populations of wild bees and suggest that increasing wild bee richness in highly contaminated areas will require special conservation strategies. These may include creating suitable nesting sites and sowing a mixture of flowering plants as well as installing artificial nests with wild bee cocoons in polluted areas. Applying protection plans to wild pollinating bee communities in heavy metal-contaminated areas will contribute to integrated land rehabilitation to minimize the impact of pollution on the environment.

Reflections on Beckett: a centenary celebration

The essays in this collection were originally delivered as part of the Samuel Beckett lecture series at Trinity College Dublin, Samuel Beckett's alma mater. The contributors include eminent Beckett scholars such as Linda Ben-Zvi, Enoch Brater, Ruby Cohn and Stan Gontarski, theatre scholars such as Herbert Blau and Joseph Roach, practitioners such as the Irish actor, Barry McGovern, and cultural critics such as Marina Warner and Terry Eagleton. The collection sheds new light on Beckett's enigmatic theater, offering new perspectives on Beckett's use of language and silence, on his attitudes toward the body, on those who influenced him and on those he has influenced (including Suzan-Lori Parks and Femi Osofisan), and on Beckett and the art of self-collaboration. Each contributor places the playwright into a network of genealogies and legacies and his work into important historical, cultural, and aesthetic contexts. Together, the essays demonstrate Beckett's impact on theater, performance, and visual arts during the latter half of the twentieth century and serve to open up new directions for Beckett studies.

Static electric fields interfere in the viability of cells exposed to ionising radiation

Purpose: The interference of electric fields (EF) with biological processes is an issue of considerable interest. No studies have as yet been reported on the combined effect of EF plus ionising radiation. Here we report studies on this combined effect using the prokaryote Microcystis panniformis, the eukaryote Candida albicans and human cells. Materials and methods: Cultures of Microcystis panniformis (Cyanobacteria) in glass tubes were irradiated with doses in the interval 0.5-5kGy, using a 60Co gamma source facility. Samples irradiated with 3kGy were exposed for 2h to a 20Vcm-1 static electric field and viable cells were enumerated. Cultures of Candida albicans were incubated at 36C for 20h, gamma-irradiated with doses from 1-4kGy, and submitted to an electric field of 180Vcm-1. Samples were examined under a fluorescence microscope and the number of unviable (red) and viable (apple green fluorescence) cells was determined. For crossing-check purposes, MRC5 strain of lung cells were irradiated with 2 Gy, exposed to an electric field of 1250 V/cm, incubated overnight with the anti-body anti-phospho-histone H2AX and examined under a fluorescence microscope to quantify nuclei with -H2AX foci. Results: In cells exposed to EF, death increased substantially compared to irradiation alone. In C. albicans we observed suppression of the DNA repair shoulder. The effect of EF in growth of M. panniformis was substantial; the number of surviving cells on day-2 after irradiation was 12 times greater than when an EF was applied. By the action of a static electric field on the irradiated MRC5 cells the number of nuclei with -H2AX foci increased 40%, approximately. Conclusions: Application of an EF following irradiation greatly increases cell death. The observation that the DNA repair shoulder in the survival curve of C. albicans is suppressed when cells are exposed to irradiation+EF suggests that EF likely inactivate cellular recovering processes. The result for the number of nuclei with -H2AX foci in MRC5 cells indicates that an EF interferes mostly in the DNA repair mechanisms. A molecular ad-hoc model is proposed.

Isostructural M(RL)(2)(hfac)(2) complexes with RL=5-(4-[N-tert-butyl-N-aminoxyl]phenyl)pyrimidine

5-(4-(N-tert-Butyl-N-aminoxylphenyl)) pyrimidine (RL, 4PPN) forms crystallographically isostructural and isomorphic pseudo-octahedral M(RL)(2)(hfac)(2) complexes with M(hfac)(2), M = Zn, Cu, Ni, Co, and Mn. Multiple close contacts occur between sites of significant spin density of the organic radical units. Magnetic behavior of the Zn, Cu, Ni, Co complexes appears to involve multiple exchange pathways, with multiple close crystallographic contacts between sites that EPR (of 4PPN) indicates to have observable spin density. Powder EPR spectra at room temperature and low temperature are reported for each complex. Near room temperature, the magnetic moments of the complexes are roughly equal to those expected by a sum of non-interacting moments (two radicals plus ion). As temperature decreases, AFM exchange interactions become evident in all of the complexes. The closest fits to the magnetic data were found for a 1-D Heisenberg AFM chain model in the Zn(II) complex (J/k = (-)7 K), and for three-spin RL-M-RL exchange in the other complexes (J/k = (-)26 K, (-)3 K, (-) 6 K, for Cu(II), Ni(II), and Co(II) complexes, respectively). (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ciências sociais e a pragmática: diálogos sobre a recepção

Produção teórica sobre comunicação nas ciências sociais em diálogo com a teoria literária e a pragmática. O trabalho retoma um projeto seminal de Gabriel Cohn quando anunciou, em Sociologia da Comunicação, o encontro dessa área de estudos com a pragmática. Destaca a importância de uma communication turn nas ciências sociais e, ao mesmo tempo, ressalta a importância da sociologia seja na identificação das condições sociais de produção de sentido no consumo cultural, seja nas condições necessárias para sua eficácia simbólica.

Concepção, desenvolvimento e validação de instrumentos de coleta de dados para estudar a percepção do processo decisório e as diferenças culturais

A presente dissertação insere-se no contexto de um projeto global de pesquisa, em desenvolvimento no GESID-PPGA/EA/UFRGS, com a cooperação de algumas universidades estrangeiras. Tal projeto tem como tema a percepção do processo decisório individual e a influência da cultura nacional e da experiência decisória. Para estudar a inter-relação destes assuntos é preciso, antes de mais nada, elaborar um conjunto de instrumentos que permitam investigar a percepção das pessoas sobre a tomada de decisão. Este é o objetivo principal do presente trabalho, que refere-se à primeira fase desse projeto global: a partir da literatura, e do conhecimento de um grupo de pesquisadores, conceber e desenvolver um conjunto de instrumentos (quantitativos e qualitativos) válidos para estudar a decisão. E ainda estabelecer uma metodologia de aplicação desse instrumental, a qual possa determinar uma seqüência (ordem) e forma de aplicação mais adequada. Para tanto, primeiramente foram definidas as 3 questões de pesquisa, que nortearam o desenvolvimento dos instrumentos de pesquisa, as quais deverão ser investigadas no contexto do projeto global de pesquisa, e que podem ser resumidas da seguinte forma: (1) Independentemente da cultura nacional ou do nível de experiência decisória dos indivíduos é possível identificar fatores comuns (passos, princípios, insights) a respeito da forma como as pessoas percebem o processo decisório individual, especialmente se tomado o modelo de processo decisório da “Racionalidade limitada” de Simon (1947) como padrão de comparação? (2) A cultura atua como fator de diferenciação na percepção do processo decisório individual? (3) A Experiência Decisória (vivência) dos indivíduos influencia a forma como eles percebem o processo decisório individual? A definição destas 3 questões de pesquisa possibilitou a concepção dos instrumentos, nos quais posteriormente foi realizada uma validação de conteúdo (por uma comissão de juízes) e de sua seqüência de aplicação (testando-se diferentes ordens), bem como a verificação da sua fidedignidade (através do Teste-reteste). Com este processo obteve-se os seguintes resultados: (1) projeto global consolidado; (2) conjunto de instrumentos de pesquisa concebido e validado; (3) seqüência de aplicação do instrumental definida e validada; (4) quadro de construtos definido fornecendo subsídios para a definição de um protocolo de análise de dados; (5) concepção de um método para verificação da "contaminação" de instrumentos de pesquisa.

Relação entre desenvolvimento econômico e transição/consolidação democrática: revisão da literatura

A relação entre Desenvolvimento Econômico e Transição/Consolidação democrática é o tema de maior polêmica na área de Política Comparada. Esse trabalho é uma revisão da literatura, e cobre os principais autores das linhas teóricas mais importantes sobre o tema. Os autores revisados são Seymour Lipset, Karl Deutsch, Barrington Moore Jr., Juan Linz, Guillermo O’Donnell, Phillipe Schmitter, Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, Fernando Limongi, Charles Boix, Susan Stokes, Daren Acemoglu, James Robinson, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens, John D. Stephens e Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pererira

Uma trajetória brasileira na arquitetura das exposições universais dos anos 1939-1992

O presente trabalho desenvolve uma análise crítica e comparativa entre a arquitetura de quatro Pavilhões Brasileiros. Para tanto, tomando como base a participação do Brasil com pavilhões próprios nas exposições universais: Expo’39, em Nova York; Expo’58, em Bruxelas; Expo’70, em Osaka e projeto para Expo’92, em Sevilha, respectivamente, cada um dos pavilhões é analisado dentro do seu contexto histórico nacional e internacional. É uma tentativa de resgatar a importância da arquitetura efêmera brasileira, sobre a qual devem predominar registros relacionados à compreensão crítica da arquitetura nacional. As análises realizadas baseiam-se em conceitos e qualidades comuns e opostas durante a explanação de cada uma das situações documentadas. Assim, são relacionados e interpolados aspectos culturais, sociais e políticos existentes no âmbito da arquitetura nacional vigente. Os pensamentos dominantes da época, ideologias e conceitos são abordados durante o desenvolvimento desta dissertação. Ficou comprovado através das análises que, nem sempre a arquitetura dos Pavilhões Brasileiros procurou representar uma identidade nacional. Efetivamente, as análises deste trabalho comprovaram diversas influências na arquitetura dos Pavilhões Brasileiros e, muitas vezes, o resultado da representação brasileira limitou-se a refletir escolas ou correntes regionais que tiveram relevância no período da modernização brasileira.