delta O-18, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca records of Porites lutea corals from Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea, and their applicability as paleoclimatic indicators

Combined seasonal to monthly resolution coral skeletal delta(18)O, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Ca records are reported for one modem and two late Holocene Porites lutea corals from a fringing reef at Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea (SCS). All the profiles for the period 1989-2000 reveal annual cycles well correlated with instrumental sea surface temperatures (SST), and display broad peaks in summer and narrow troughs in winter, reflecting seasonal growth rate variations. Calibration against instrumental SST yields the following equations: delta(18)O=-0.174(+/- 0.010)xSST(degrees C)-1.02(+/- 0.27) (MSWD=5.8), Sr/Ca-(mmol/mol)=-0.0424(+/- 0.0031)xSST(degrees C)+9.836(+/- 0.082) (MSWD=8.6), and Mg/Ca-(mmol/mol)=0.110(+/- 0.009)XSST(degrees C)+ 1.32(+/- 0.23) (MSWD=55). The scatter in the Mg/Ca-SST relationship is much larger than analytical uncertainties can account for, suggesting the presence of SST-unrelated components in the Mg/Ca variation. Calculated Sr/Ca-SST values for two later Holocene Porites lutea samples (U-series ages similar to 541 BC and similar to 487 AD, respectively) from the same reef suggest that SST in the SCS at similar to 541 BC was nearly as warm as in the 1990s (the warmest decade of the last century), but at similar to 487 AD, it was significantly cooler. This observation is consistent with climatic data reported in Chinese historic documents, confirming that the Sr/Ca-SST relationship is a reliable thermometer. Removing the SST component in the delta(18)O variation based on calculated Sr/Ca-SST values, the residual delta(18)O reflects the deviation of the Holocene seawater delta(18)O from the modem value, which is also a measure of the Holocene sea surface salinity (SSS) or the summer monsoon moisture level in mainland China. Such residual delta(18)O was close to zero at similar to 541 BC and -0.3 parts per thousand at similar to 487 AD, suggesting that it was as wet as in the 1990s at similar to 541 BC but significantly drier at similar to 487 AD in mainland China, which are also consistent with independent historic records. Calculated Mg/Ca-SST values for the two late Holocene corals are significantly lower than the Sr/Ca-SST values and are also in conflict with Chinese historic records, suggesting that coral Mg/Ca is not reliable proxy for SST. At comparable Sr/Ca ranges, fossil corals always display negative Mg/Ca offsets if compared with the modem coral of the same site. We interpret this observation as due to preferential loss of Mg during meteoric dissolution of cryptic Mg-calcite-bearing microbialites in the exposed fossil corals. Microbialites (MgO up to 17%, Sr only 100-300 ppm) are ubiquitous during reef-building processes and their presence in only a trace amount will have a significant impact on coral Mg/Ca ratios without detectable influence on coral Sr/Ca ratios. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling broccoli development, yield and quality

Broccoli is a vegetable crop of increasing importance in Australia, particularly in south-east Queensland and farmers need to maintain a regular supply of good quality broccoli to meet the expanding market. A predictive model of ontogeny, incorporating climatic data including frost risk, would enable farmers to predict harvest maturity date and select appropriate cultivar – sowing date combinations. To develop procedures for predicting ontogeny, yield and quality, field studies using three cultivars, ‘Fiesta’, ‘Greenbelt’ and ‘Marathon’, were sown on eight dates from 11 March to 22 May 1997, and grown under natural and extended (16 h) photoperiods at the University of Queensland, Gatton Campus. Cultivar, rather than the environment, mainly determined head quality attributes of head shape and branching angle. Yield and quality were not influenced by photoperiod. A better understanding of genotype and environmental interactions will help farmers optimise yield and quality, by matching cultivars with time of sowing. The estimated base and optimum temperature for broccoli development were 0°C and 20 °C, respectively, and were consistent across cultivars, but thermal time requirements for phenological intervals were cultivar specific. Differences in thermal time requirement from floral initiation to harvest maturity between cultivars were small and of little importance, but differences in thermal time requirement from emergence to floral initiation were large. Sensitivity to photoperiod and solar radiation was low in the three cultivars used. This research has produced models to assist broccoli farmers in crop scheduling and cultivar selection in south-east Queensland.

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

Modeling the future distribution of Mediterranean Pinus species

The potential future distribution of four Mediterranean pines was aimed to be modeled supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The studied species were Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, and Pinus pinea. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The model results show explicit shift of the distributions to the north in case of three of the four studied species. The future (2041-70) climate of Western Hungary seems to be suitable for Pinus pinaster.

Potential urban distribution of Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi and Phlebotomus neglectus Tonn. (Diptera: Psychodidae) in 2021–50 in Budapest, Hungary

Background & Objective: The most northern populations of two sand fly species (Phlebotomus mascittii and Phlebotomus neclectus) in the Carpathian Basin are known from Central Hungary. The most important limiting factor of the distribution of Phlebotomus species in the region is the annual minimum temperature which may be positively affected by the urban heat island and the climate change in the future. Method: Based on the latest case reports of the species, Climate Envelope Model was done for the period 1961-1990 and 2025-2050 to project the potential urban distribution of the species. The climatic data were obtained from RegCM regional climate model and MODIS satellite images. Results: The recent occurrence of the species in Central Hungary indicates that Phlebotomus species can overwinter in non-heated shelters in the built environment. Interpretation & Conclusion: Jointly heat island and future climate change seem to be able to provide suitable environment for the studied species in urban areas in a great extent.

Energia eólica em alto mar: distribuição dos recursos e complementaridade hídrica

The stabilization of energy supply in Brazil has been a challenge for the operation of the National Interconnected System in face of hydrological and climatic variations. Thermoelectric plants have been used as an emergency source for periods of water scarcity. The utilization of fossil fuels, however, has elevated the cost of electricity. On the other hand, offshore wind energy has gained importance in the international context and is competitive enough to become a possibility for future generation in Brazil. In this scenario, the main goal of this thesis was to investigate the magnitude and distribution of offshore wind resources, and also verify the possibilities of complementing hydropower. A data series of precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Blended Sea Winds from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC/NOAA) were used. According to statistical criteria, three types of complementarity were found in the Brazilian territory: hydro × hydro, wind × wind and hydro × wind. It was noted a significant complementarity between wind and hydro resources (r = -0.65), mainly for the hydrographical basins of the southeast and central regions with Northeastern Brazil winds. To refine the extrapolation of winds over the ocean, a method based on the Monin-Obukhov theory was used to model the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer. Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Flux (OAFLUX) datasets for heat flux, temperature and humidity, and also sea level pressure data from NCEP/NCAR were used. The ETOPO1 from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC/NOAA) provided bathymetric data. It was found that shallow waters, between 0-20 meters, have a resource estimated at 559 GW. The contribution of wind resources to hydroelectric reservoir operation was investigated with a simplified hybrid wind-hydraulic model, and reservoir level, inflow, outflow and turbine production data. It was found that the hybrid system avoids drought periods, continuously saving water from reservoirs through wind production. Therefore, from the results obtained, it is possible to state that the good winds from the Brazilian coast can, besides diversifying the electric matrix, stabilize the hydrological fluctuations avoiding rationing and blackouts, reducing the use of thermal power plants, increasing the production cost and emission of greenhouse gases. Public policies targeted to offshore wind energy will be necessary for its full development.

Archaeological otoliths as environmental recorders: high resolution sampling of pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) otoliths from Kiska Island, Alaska

Archaeological fish otoliths have the potential to serve as proxies for both season of site occupation and palaeoclimate conditions. By sampling along the distinctive sub-annual seasonal bands of the otolith and completing a stable isotope (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C) analysis, variations within the fish’s environment can be identified. Through the analysis of cod otoliths from two archaeological sites on Kiska Island, Gertrude Cove (KIS-010) and Witchcraft Point (KIS-005), this research evaluates a micromilling methodological approach to extracting climatic data from archaeological cod otoliths. In addition, δ¹⁸Ootolith data and radiocarbon dates frame a discussion of Pacific cod harvesting, site occupation, and changing climatic conditions on Kiska Island. To aid in the interpretation of the archaeological Pacific cod results, archaeological and modern Atlantic cod otoliths were also analyzed as a component of this study to develop. The Atlantic cod otoliths provided the methodological and interpretative framework for the study, and also served to assess the efficacy of this sampling strategy for archaeological materials and to add time-depth to existing datasets. The δ¹⁸Ootolith values successfully illustrate relative variation in ambient water temperature. The Pacific cod δ¹⁸O values demonstrate a weak seasonal signal identifiable up to year 3, followed by relatively stable values until year 6/7 when values continuously increase. Based on the δ¹⁸O values, the Pacific cod were exposed to the coldest water temperatures immediately prior to capture. The lack of a clear cycle of seasonal variation and the continued increase in values towards the otolith edge obscures the season of capture, and indicates that other behavioural, environmental, or methodological factors influenced the otolith δ¹⁸O values. It is suggested that Pacific cod would have been harvested throughout the year, and the presence of cod remains in Aleutian archaeological sites cannot be used as a reliable indicator of summer occupation. In addition, when the δ¹⁸O otolith values are integrated with radiocarbon dates and known climatic regimes, it is demonstrated that climatic conditions play an integral role in the pattern of occupation at Gertrude Cove. Initial site occupation coincides with the end of a neoglacial cooling period, and the most recent and continuous occupation coincides with the end of a localized warming period and the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA).

Resistance and resilience to droughts : hydropedological controls on catchment storage and run-off response

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Maria Blumstock, Claire Tunaley and Jason Lessels for assistance with the field work and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation and temperature data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). We are grateful for the careful and constructive comments of two anonymous reviewers that helped to improve an earlier version of this manuscript. The European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910) is thanked for funding.

Resistance and resilience to droughts : hydropedological controls on catchment storage and run-off response

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Maria Blumstock, Claire Tunaley and Jason Lessels for assistance with the field work and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation and temperature data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). We are grateful for the careful and constructive comments of two anonymous reviewers that helped to improve an earlier version of this manuscript. The European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910) is thanked for funding.

Stable oxygen isotope record of coral core RUS-95 from the Red Sea

A 245-year coral oxygen isotope record from the northern Red Sea (Ras Umm Sidd/Egypt, ~28°N) in bimonthly resolution is presented. The mean annual coral delta18O signal apparently reflects varying proportions of both sea surface temperature and delta18Oseawater variability. In conjunction with instrumental observations of climate the coral record suggests for interannual and longer timescales that colder periods are accompanied by more arid conditions in the northern Red Sea but increased rainfall in the southeastern Mediterranean, whereas warmer periods are accompanied by decreased rainfall in the latter and less arid conditions in the northern Red Sea. A ~70-year oscillation of probably North Atlantic origin dominates the coral time series. Interannual to interdecadal variability is correlated with instrumental indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Pacific climate variability. The results suggest that these modes contributed consistently to Middle East climate variability since at least 1750, preferentially at a period of ~5.7 years.

Geotechnical properties of the Cassino Beach mud

Knowledge of the marine soils properties, together with hydrodynamic and climatic data, plays an important role for a better understanding of the dynamic behavior of sandy and muddy coasts. This paper deals with reporting and basic interpretation of two campaigns of exploration and characterization of the mud of Cassino Beach, southern Brazil, carried out during the years of 2004 and 2005. Samples were obtained by means of cores collected at some locations offshore, and were submitted to various laboratory geotechnical tests, including determination of the physical index, grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, and shear resistance by both triaxial and shear vane tests. Results confirm the existence of a very soft soil deposit offshore Cassino Beach, highly plastic, compressible, and viscous, forming an important database for further studies.

Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.

An investigation of environmental conditions experienced during the life of high-value wood components and products

Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips (for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in temperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe (including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design.

A Modeling Approach to Quantify the Effects of Stomatal Behavior and Mesophyll Conductance on Leaf Water Use Efficiency

Water use efficiency (WUE) is considered as a determinant of yield under stress and a component of crop drought resistance. Stomatal behavior regulates both transpiration rate and net assimilation and has been suggested to be crucial for improving crop WUE. In this work, a dynamic model was used to examine the impact of dynamic properties of stomata on WUE. The model includes sub-models of stomatal conductance dynamics, solute accumulation in the mesophyll, mesophyll water content, and water flow to the mesophyll. Using the instantaneous value of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and transpiration rate were simulated using a biochemical model and Penman-Monteith equation, respectively. The model was parameterized for a cucumber leaf and model outputs were evaluated using climatic data. Our simulations revealed that WUE was higher on a cloudy than a sunny day. Fast stomatal reaction to light decreased WUE during the period of increasing light (e.g., in the morning) by up to 10.2% and increased WUE during the period of decreasing light (afternoon) by up to 6.25%. Sensitivity of daily WUE to stomatal parameters and mesophyll conductance to CO2 was tested for sunny and cloudy days. Increasing mesophyll conductance to CO2 was more likely to increase WUE for all climatic conditions (up to 5.5% on the sunny day) than modifications of stomatal reaction speed to light and maximum stomatal conductance.

Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida

This study computed trends in extreme precipitation events of Florida for 1950-2010. Hourly aggregated rainfall data from 24 stations of the National Climatic Data Centre were analyzed to derive time-series of extreme rainfalls for 12 durations, ranging from 1 hour to 7 day. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen Approach were applied to detect the significance of trends in annual maximum rainfalls, number of above threshold events and average magnitude of above threshold events for four common analysis periods. Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach was applied to remove the serial correlations and bootstrap resampling approach was used to detect the field significance of trends. The results for annual maximum rainfall revealed dominant increasing trends at the statistical significance level of 0.10, especially for hourly events in longer period and daily events in recent period. The number of above threshold events exhibited strong decreasing trends for hourly durations in all time periods.