Endemic malaria: an 'indoor' disease in northern Europe

Background: Endemic northern malaria reached 68°N latitude in Europe during the 19th century, where the summer mean temperature only irregularly exceeded 16°C, the lower limit needed for sporogony of Plasmodium vivax. Because of the available historical material and little use of quinine, Finland was suitable for an analysis of endemic malaria and temperature. Methods: Annual malaria death frequencies during 1800–1870 extracted from parish records were analysed against long-term temperature records in Finland, Russia and Sweden. Supporting data from 1750–1799 were used in the interpretation of the results. The life cycle and behaviour of the anopheline mosquitoes were interpreted according to the literature. Results: Malaria frequencies correlated strongly with the mean temperature of June and July of the preceding summer, corresponding to larval development of the vector. Hatching of imagoes peaks in the middle of August, when the temperature most years is too low for the sporogony of Plasmodium. After mating some of the females hibernate in human dwellings. If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings. Conclusion: Northern malaria existed in a cold climate by means of summer dormancy of hypnozoites in humans and indoor transmission of sporozoites throughout the winter by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climatic conditions did not affect this relationship. The epidemics, however, were regulated by the population size of the mosquitoes which, in turn, ultimately was controlled by the temperatures of the preceding summer.

Geographical Distribution Patterns of Amphibians in the Western Ghats, India

The Western Ghats of India are very rich in amphibian species with 117 species of frogs, toads and caecilians. Eighty-nine species are endemic to this biogeographical region. Analysis of ranges and patterns of geographical distribution of amphibians on the Western Ghats suggest that the southern half of the Western Ghats and the low-medium elevation hills are more diverse in species than the northern half and higher hills. This is attributed to the more widespread rainfall and the less variable climatic conditions in the south. About half the species are apparently localized. Of those species with wider ranges, a majority show patchy distribution. Species preferring the moist evergreen forests as habitats tend to have patchy distributions. This appears to be a result of habitat destruction and fragmentation. The overall patterns of species richness and local endemism are rather different from those of the angiosperms and birds. In birds and angiosperms, a significant proportion of endemics are found on the higher hills. On the contrary, endemic amphibian species are found in the lower altitudinal range of 0-1000 m, with a majority between 800 and 1000 m.

The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Parameter estimation of a two-horizon soil profile by combining crop canopy and surface soil moisture observations using GLUE

Estimation of soil parameters by inverse modeling using observations on either surface soil moisture or crop variables has been successfully attempted in many studies, but difficulties to estimate root zone properties arise when heterogeneous layered soils are considered. The objective of this study was to explore the potential of combining observations on surface soil moisture and crop variables - leaf area index (LAI) and above-ground biomass for estimating soil parameters (water holding capacity and soil depth) in a two-layered soil system using inversion of the crop model STICS. This was performed using GLUE method on a synthetic data set on varying soil types and on a data set from a field experiment carried out in two maize plots in South India. The main results were (i) combination of surface soil moisture and above-ground biomass provided consistently good estimates with small uncertainity of soil properties for the two soil layers, for a wide range of soil paramater values, both in the synthetic and the field experiment, (ii) above-ground biomass was found to give relatively better estimates and lower uncertainty than LAI when combined with surface soil moisture, especially for estimation of soil depth, (iii) surface soil moisture data, either alone or combined with crop variables, provided a very good estimate of the water holding capacity of the upper soil layer with very small uncertainty whereas using the surface soil moisture alone gave very poor estimates of the soil properties of the deeper layer, and (iv) using crop variables alone (else above-ground biomass or LAI) provided reasonable estimates of the deeper layer properties depending on the soil type but provided poor estimates of the first layer properties. The robustness of combining observations of the surface soil moisture and the above-ground biomass for estimating two layer soil properties, which was demonstrated using both synthetic and field experiments in this study, needs now to be tested for a broader range of climatic conditions and crop types, to assess its potential for spatial applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Flying between Sky Islands: The Effect of Naturally Fragmented Habitat on Butterfly Population Structure

High elevation montane areas are called ``sky islands'' when they occur as a series of high mountains separated by lowland valleys. Different climatic conditions at high elevations makes sky islands a specialized type of habitat, rendering them naturally fragmented compared to more continuous habitat at lower elevations. Species in sky islands face unsuitable climate in the intervening valleys when moving from one montane area to another. The high elevation shola-grassland mosaic in the Western Ghats of southern India form one such sky island complex. The fragmented patches make this area ideal to study the effect of the spatial orientation of suitable habitat patches on population genetic structure of species found in these areas. Past studies have suggested that sky islands tend to have genetically structured populations, possibly due to reduced gene flow between montane areas. To test this hypothesis, we adopted the comparative approach. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we compared population genetic structures of two closely related, similar sized butterfly species: Heteropsis oculus, a high elevation shola-grassland specialist restricted to the southern Western Ghats, and Mycalesis patnia, found more continuously distributed in lower elevations. In all analyses, as per expectation the sky island specialist H. oculus exhibited a greater degree of population genetic structure than M. patnia, implying a difference in geneflow. This difference in geneflow in turn appears to be due to the natural fragmentation of the sky island complexes. Detailed analysis of a subset of H. oculus samples from one sky island complex (the Anamalais) showed a surprising genetic break. A possible reason for this break could be unsuitable conditions of higher temperature and lower rainfall in the intervening valley region. Thus, sky island species are not only restricted by lack of habitat continuity between montane areas, but also by the nature of the intervening habitat.

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass-extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative C-13 anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high-resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn-extinction and post-extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal-beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.

Rapid divergence of ecotypes of an invasive plant

Invasive species demonstrate rapid evolution within a very short period of time allowing one to understand the underlying mechanism(s). Lantana camara, a highly invasive plant of the tropics and subtropics, has expanded its range and successfully established itself almost throughout India. In order to uncover the processes governing the invasion dynamics, 218 individuals from various locations across India were characterized with six microsatellites. By integrating genetic data with niche modelling, we examined the effect of drift and environmental selection on genetic divergence. We found multiple genetic clusters that were non-randomly distributed across space. Spatial autocorrelation revealed a strong fine-scale structure, i.e. isolation by distance. In addition, we obtained evidence of inhibitory effects of selection on gene flow, i.e. isolation by environmental distance. Perhaps, local adaptation in response to selection is offsetting gene flow and causing the populations to diverge. Niche models suggested that temperature and precipitation play a major role in the observed spatial distribution of this plant. Based on a non-random distribution of clusters, unequal gene flow among them and different bioclimatic niche requirements, we concluded that the emergence of ecotypes represented by two genetic clusters is underway. They may be locally adapted to specific climatic conditions, and perhaps at the very early stages of ecological divergence.

Assessing impact of material transition and thermal comfort models on embodied and operational energy in vernacular dwellings (India)

Vernacular dwellings are well-suited climate-responsive designs that adopt local materials and skills to support comfortable indoor environments in response to local climatic conditions. These naturally-ventilated passive dwellings have enabled civilizations to sustain even in extreme climatic conditions. The design and physiological resilience of the inhabitants have coevolved to be attuned to local climatic and environmental conditions. Such adaptations have perplexed modern theories in human thermal-comfort that have evolved in the era of electricity and air-conditioned buildings. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Types of energy use associated with a buildings life cycle include its embodied energy, operational and maintenance energy, demolition and disposal energy. Embodied Energy (EE) represents total energy consumption for construction of building, i.e., embodied energy of building materials, material transportation energy and building construction energy. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. Operational energy (OE) in buildings mainly contributed by space conditioning and lighting requirements, depends on the climatic conditions of the region and comfort requirements of the building occupants. Less energy intensive natural materials are used for traditional buildings and the EE of traditional buildings is low. Transition in use of materials causes significant impact on embodied energy of vernacular dwellings. Use of manufactured, energy intensive materials like brick, cement, steel, glass etc. contributes to high embodied energy in these dwellings. This paper studies the increase in EE of the dwelling attributed to change in wall materials. Climatic location significantly influences operational energy in dwellings. Buildings located in regions experiencing extreme climatic conditions would require more operational energy to satisfy the heating and cooling energy demands throughout the year. Traditional buildings adopt passive techniques or non-mechanical methods for space conditioning to overcome the vagaries of extreme climatic variations and hence less operational energy. This study assesses operational energy in traditional dwelling with regard to change in wall material and climatic location. OE in the dwellings has been assessed for hot-dry, warm humid and moderate climatic zones. Choice of thermal comfort models is yet another factor which greatly influences operational energy assessment in buildings. The paper adopts two popular thermal-comfort models, viz., ASHRAE comfort standards and TSI by Sharma and Ali to investigate thermal comfort aspects and impact of these comfort models on OE assessment in traditional dwellings. A naturally ventilated vernacular dwelling in Sugganahalli, a village close to Bangalore (India), set in warm - humid climate is considered for present investigations on impact of transition in building materials, change in climatic location and choice of thermal comfort models on energy in buildings. The study includes a rigorous real time monitoring of the thermal performance of the dwelling. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Results of the study and appraisal for appropriate thermal comfort standards for computing operational energy has been presented and discussed in this paper. (c) 2014 K.I. Praseeda. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Discerning heat transfer in building materials

The function of a building is to ensure safety and thermal comfort for healthy living conditions. Buildings primarily comprise an envelope, which acts as an interface separating the external environment from the indoors environment. The building envelope is primarily responsible for regulating indoor thermal comfort in response to external climatic conditions. It usually comprises a configuration of building materials to thus far provide requisite structural performance. However, studies into building-envelope configurations to provide a particular thermal performance are limited. As the building envelope is exposed to the external environment there will be heat and moisture transfer to the indoor environment through it. The overall phenomenon of heat and moisture transfer depends on the microstructure and configuration within the building material. Further, thermal property of a material is generally dependent on its microstructure, which comprises a network of pores and particles arranged in a definite structure. Thermal behaviour of a building material thus depends on the thermal conductivities of the solid particles, pore micro-structure and its constituent fluid (air and/or moisture). The thermal response of a building envelope is determined by the thermal characteristics of the individual building materials and its configuration. Understanding the heat transfer influenced by the complex networks of pores and particles is a relatively new study in the area of building climatic-response. The current study reviews the heat-transfer mechanisms that determine the thermal performance of a building material attributed to its micro-structure. A theoretical basis for the same is being evolved and its relevance in regulating heat-transfer through building envelopes, walls in particular, is reviewed in this paper. (C) 2014 N.C. Balaji. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Embodied and operational energy of urban residential buildings in India

Globally, buildings consume nearly half of the total energy produced, and consequently responsible for a large share of CO2 emissions. A building's life cycle energy (LCE) comprises its embodied energy (EE) and operational energy (OE). The building design, prevalent climatic conditions and occupant behaviour primarily determines its LCE. Thus, for the identification of appropriate emission-reduction strategies, studies into building LCE are crucial. While OE reflects the energy utilized in operating a, EE comprises the initial capital energy involved in its construction (material and burden associated with material consumption in buildings. Assessment of EE and OE in buildings is crucial towards identifying appropriate design and operational strategies for reduction of the building's life cycle energy. This paper discusses EE and OE assessment of a few residential buildings in different climatic locations in India. The study shows that share of OE and EE in LCE greatly depends upon the types of materials used in construction and extent of space conditioning adopted. In some cases EE can exceed life cycle OE. Buildings with reinforced concrete frame and monolithic reinforced concrete walls have very high EE. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mögliche Ursachen des geringen Heringsnachwuchses in der Nordsee

Though the stocks of North Sea herring seemed to have recovered from small numbers since the mid-1990s we do recently observe a new decline in the spawning stock biomass. This is mainly caused by four consecutive years of small reproduction. Whilst the adults produce enough eggs and larvae only few survive until mature stages. The reasons for the bad recruitment are not clear. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate conditions, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that obviously triggers the interaction between the size of the spawning stock and the abundance of larvae. We show that approximately 60 % of the recruitment variance can be explained by specific constellations of spawning stock size and climatic conditions. Beside physical factors we also discuss several working hypotheses shedding light on the influence of biological variables on the fluctuation of herring offspring.

The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

44 p.

Dinâmica de crescimento de Cedrela odorata L. (Meliaceae) na Floresta Atlântica do Estado do Rio de Janeiro: fenologia, atividade cambial e dendrocronologia

Ao longo do século XX, poucos estudos de dendrocronologia foram desenvolvidos com espécies de ambientes tropicais, em função da crença de que as condições climáticas nessas regiões não apresentavam variações suficientemente marcantes e regulares para induzir um ritmo anual de crescimento radial. A realização de trabalhos sobre esse tema nas últimas décadas revelou que a formação de anéis de crescimento anuais nos trópicos pode estar associada a fatores diversos, como: existência de estação seca bem definida, ocorrência de inundações sazonais, respostas ao comportamento fenológico, respostas ao fotoperíodo e a ritmos endógenos. O presente estudo tem por objetivo compreender a dinâmica de crescimento radial de uma espécie da Mata Atlântica se desenvolvendo em ambiente natural. Para tanto, propôs-se: i) investigar a periodicidade da atividade cambial e dos fatores que a influenciam; ii) estimar a idade e taxa de crescimento diamétrico e iii) correlacionar os fatores ambientais com os anéis de crescimento, em indivíduos de Cedrela odorata L. Para o estudo da atividade cambial, foram obtidas amostras de caule a 1,30 m do solo, contendo periderme, faixa cambial e xilema e floema secundários, por métodos não destrutivos. A fenologia vegetativa e a frutificação dos indivíduos amostrados foram acompanhadas durante todo o período do experimento. O material coletado foi processado segundo técnicas usuais em Anatomia Vegetal e analisado sob microscopia óptica e de fluorescência. Os dados de fotoperíodo, precipitação, temperatura e fenologia vegetativa foram correlacionados à atividade cambial. Para o estudo dos anéis de crescimento, as coletas também foram realizadas a 1,30 m do solo, por meio de sonda de Pressler. As amostras obtidas foram polidas e analisadas sob microscópio estereoscópio, para demarcação e aferição do número de anéis de crescimento, e a largura dos anéis foi mensurada para a determinação das taxas de crescimento radial. A série histórica de temperatura e precipitação foi correlacionada à cronologia dos anéis de crescimento. Os resultados indicaram que a atividade cambial segue um ritmo anual de crescimento, correlacionado à sazonalidade do fotoperíodo, da precipitação e da fenologia vegetativa. A análise dos anéis de crescimento permitiu estimar a idade dos indivíduos e determinar a taxa média de incremento e as taxas de incremento diamétrico acumulado e incremento médio anual para a espécie no sítio de estudo. Os dados de incremento radial evidenciaram a ausência de relação entre a idade e o diâmetro das árvores. A análise da variação na largura dos anéis não apresentou correlações significativas com os fatores climáticos analisados.

The importance of periodic droughts for maintaining diversity in the freshwater environment

Whereas some species may rely on periodic drought conditions for part of their life histories, or have life strategies suited to exploiting the habitat or changed environmental conditions that are created by drought, for other organisms it is a time of stress. Periodic drought conditions therefore generate a series of waves of colonization and extinctions. Studies on lowland wet grassland, in winterbournes and in the toiche zone of both ponds and rivers, also demonstrate that different organisms are competitively favoured with changing hydrological conditions, and that this process prevents any one species from overwhelming its competitors. Competitive impacts may be inter- and intraspecific. It is therefore apparent that the death of organisms such as adult fish during severe drought conditions, though traumatic for human onlookers and commercial interests, may be merely a regular occurrence to which the ecosystem is adapted. The variability of climatic conditions thereby provides a direct influence on the maintenance of biological diversity, and it is this very biodiversity that provides the ecosystem with the resilience to respond to environmental changes in both the short and the longer term.