Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Updating of an instrumented building model considering amplitude dependence of dynamic resonant properties extracted from seismic response records

The authors would like to express their gratitude to their supporters. Drs Jim Cousins, S.R. Uma and Ken Gledhill facilitated this research by providing access to GeoNet seismic data and structural building information. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research.

Updating of an instrumented building model considering amplitude dependence of dynamic resonant properties extracted from seismic response records

The authors would like to express their gratitude to their supporters. Drs Jim Cousins, S.R. Uma and Ken Gledhill facilitated this research by providing access to GeoNet seismic data and structural building information. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research.

Model updating using genetic algorithms with sequential niche technique

The authors would like to express their gratitude to organizations and people that supported this research. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research. Ben Ryder of Aurecon and Graeme Cummings of HEB Construction assisted in obtaining access to the bridge and information for modelling. Luke Williams and Graham Bougen, undergraduate research students, assisted with testing.

Model updating of a full-scale bridge structure using particle swarm optimization

Peer reviewed

Finite element model updating of a RC building considering seismic response trends

Peer reviewed

Neural Network Evidence for the Coupling of Presaccadic Visual Remapping to Predictive Eye Position Updating.

As we look around a scene, we perceive it as continuous and stable even though each saccadic eye movement changes the visual input to the retinas. How the brain achieves this perceptual stabilization is unknown, but a major hypothesis is that it relies on presaccadic remapping, a process in which neurons shift their visual sensitivity to a new location in the scene just before each saccade. This hypothesis is difficult to test in vivo because complete, selective inactivation of remapping is currently intractable. We tested it in silico with a hierarchical, sheet-based neural network model of the visual and oculomotor system. The model generated saccadic commands to move a video camera abruptly. Visual input from the camera and internal copies of the saccadic movement commands, or corollary discharge, converged at a map-level simulation of the frontal eye field (FEF), a primate brain area known to receive such inputs. FEF output was combined with eye position signals to yield a suitable coordinate frame for guiding arm movements of a robot. Our operational definition of perceptual stability was "useful stability," quantified as continuously accurate pointing to a visual object despite camera saccades. During training, the emergence of useful stability was correlated tightly with the emergence of presaccadic remapping in the FEF. Remapping depended on corollary discharge but its timing was synchronized to the updating of eye position. When coupled to predictive eye position signals, remapping served to stabilize the target representation for continuously accurate pointing. Graded inactivations of pathways in the model replicated, and helped to interpret, previous in vivo experiments. The results support the hypothesis that visual stability requires presaccadic remapping, provide explanations for the function and timing of remapping, and offer testable hypotheses for in vivo studies. We conclude that remapping allows for seamless coordinate frame transformations and quick actions despite visual afferent lags. With visual remapping in place for behavior, it may be exploited for perceptual continuity.

Monitoring and model updating of an FRP pedestrian truss bridge

This paper presents the results of a real bridge field experiment, carried out on a fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) pedestrian truss bridge of which nodes are reinforced with stainless steel plates. The aim of this paper is to identify the dynamic parameters of this bridge by using both conventional techniques and a model updating algorithm. In the field experiment, the bridge was instrumented with accelerometers at a number of locations on the bridge deck, recording both vertical and transverse vibrations. It was excited via jump tests at particular locations along its span and the resulting acceleration signals are used to identify dynamic parameters, such as the bridge mode shape, natural frequency and damping constant. Pedestrianinduced vibrations are also measured and utilized to identify dynamic parameters of the bridge. For a complete analysis of the bridge, a numerical model of the FRP bridge is created whose properties are calibrated utilizing a model updating algorithm. Comparable frequencies and mode shapes to those from the experiment were obtained by the FE models considering the reinforcement by increasing elastic modulus at every node of the bridge by stainless steel plate. Moreover, considering boundary conditions at both ends as fixed in the model resulted in modal properties comparable/similar to those from the experiment. This study also demonstrated that the effect of reinforcement and boundary conditions must be properly considered in an FE model to analyze real behavior of the FRP bridge.

Updating of Finite Element Models using static and dynamic optical strains with application to damage assessment

In the recent years, vibration-based structural damage identification has been subject of significant research in structural engineering. The basic idea of vibration-based methods is that damage induces mechanical properties changes that cause anomalies in the dynamic response of the structure, which measures allow to localize damage and its extension. Vibration measured data, such as frequencies and mode shapes, can be used in the Finite Element Model Updating in order to adjust structural parameters sensible at damage (e.g. Young’s Modulus). The novel aspect of this thesis is the introduction into the objective function of accurate measures of strains mode shapes, evaluated through FBG sensors. After a review of the relevant literature, the case of study, i.e. an irregular prestressed concrete beam destined for roofing of industrial structures, will be presented. The mathematical model was built through FE models, studying static and dynamic behaviour of the element. Another analytical model was developed, based on the ‘Ritz method’, in order to investigate the possible interaction between the RC beam and the steel supporting table used for testing. Experimental data, recorded through the contemporary use of different measurement techniques (optical fibers, accelerometers, LVDTs) were compared whit theoretical data, allowing to detect the best model, for which have been outlined the settings for the updating procedure.

Updating Beliefs: Are economic agents inspired by rational action or according to ones hopes and fears?.

The purpose of this investigationwas to simulate a real life scenarioand explore the way economicagents update their beliefs. Do theyupdate according to what theyhope? Or do they update inspired byrational behavior?We mimicked the environment whicha recently high school graduate faceswhen entering college to see how astudent updates his beliefs in regardsto his classroom position. We examinedhow economic agents envisagethemselves through and through collegeand see if they update their beliefsabout a hypothesis A in the lightof new evidence B, or if they updatetheir beliefs subject to what theychoose they hope. In this sense weexplored the possibility of setting asidethe neoclassical assumption thatagents are anything more than hyperrational naïve optimizers acting on perfect (and in some cases, limited information)in order to turn back to anolder tradition in economic theory, thatis agents are recognizably human.

The lipid- and lipoprotein- [LDL-Lp(a)] apheresis techniques. Updating

Therapeutic plasmapheresis allows the extracorporeal removal of plasmatic lipoproteins (Lipid-apheresis) (LA). It can be non selective (non specific), semi - selective or selective low density lipoprotein-lipoprotein(a) (specific [LDL- Lp(a)] apheresis) (Lipoprotein apheresis, LDLa). The LDL removal rate is a perfect parameter to assess the system efficiency. Plasma-Exchange (PEX) cannot be considered either specific nor, selective. In PEX the whole blood is separated into plasma and its corpuscular components usually through centrifugation or rather filtration. The corpuscular components mixed with albumin solution plus saline (NaCl 0.9%) solution at 20%-25%, are then reinfused to the patient, to substitute the plasma formerly removed. PEX eliminates atherogenic lipoproteins, but also other essential plasma proteins, such as albumin, immunoglobulins, and hemocoagulatory mediators. Cascade filtration (CF) is a method based on plasma separation and removal of plasma proteins through double filtration. During the CF two hollow–fiber filters with pores of different diameter are used to eliminate the plasma components of different weight and molecular diameter. A CF system uses a first polypropylene filter with 0.55 µm diameter pores and a second one of diacetate of cellulose with 0.02 µm pores. The first filter separates the whole blood, and the plasma is then perfused through a second filter which allows the recovery of molecules with a diameter lower than 0.02 µm, and the removal of molecules larger in diameter as apoB100–containing lipoproteins. Since both albumin and immunoglobulins are not removed, or to a negligible extent, plasma-expanders, substitution fluids, and in particular albumin, as occurs in PEX are not needed. CF however, is characterized by lower selectivity since removes also high density lipoprotein (HDL) particles which have an antiatherogenic activity. In the 80’s, a variation of Lipid-apheresis has been developed which allows the LDL-cholesterol (LDLC) (-61%) and Lp(a) (-60%) removal from plasma through processing 3 liters of filtered plasma by means of lipid-specific thermofiltration, LDL immunoadsorption, heparin-induced LDL precipitation, LDL adsorption through dextran sulphate. More recently (90’s) the DALI®, and the Liposorber D® hemoperfusion systems, effective for apoB100- containing lipoproteins removal have been developed. All the above mentioned systems are established LDL-apheresis techniques referable to the generic definition of LDLa. However, this last definition cannot describe in an appropriate manner the removal of another highly atherogenic lipoprotein particle: the Lp(a). Thus it would be better to refer the above mentioned techniques to the wider scientific and technical concept of lipoprotein apheresis. Lipid apheresis - Lipoprotein apheresis - LDL-apheresis - Severe Dyslipidemia.

Metodologia de utilização de dados de sensoriamento remoto em zonas costeiras sob influência da indústria petrolífera

Oil spills in marine environments represent immediate environmental impacts of large magnitude. For that reason the Environmental Sensitivity to Oil Maps constitute a major instrument for planning actions of containment and cleanup. For both the Environmental Sensitivity Maps always need to be updated, to have an appropriate scale and to represent accurately the coastal areas. In this context, this thesis presents a methodology for collecting and processing remote sensing data for the purpose of updating the territorial basis of thematic maps of Environmental Sensitivity to Oil. To ensure greater applicability of the methodology, sensors with complementary characteristics, which provide their data at a low financial cost, were selected and tested. To test the methodology, an area located on the northern coast of the Northeast of Brazil was chosen. The results showed that the products of ASTER data and image hybrid sensor PALSAR + CCD and HRC + CCD, have a great potential to be used as a source of cartographic information on projects that seek to update the Environmental Sensitivity Maps of Oil

Training and Updating of Education Boards in Indigenous Schools of Rural Areas: Strengthening Local Education Management

Education management in the schools of indigenous rural areas faces a number of difficulties to implement and comply with the guidelines and requirements of the laws related to budgetary management of resources allocated to Education or Administrative Boards. In addition to being located in scattered rural areas, far from the municipal heads and regional offices of the Ministry of Public Education, one of the main obstacles is that all regulations, laws and guidelines are written in Spanish, and there is people, in this indigenous rural communities, who do not speak, write, read or understand this language. This puts them at an enormous disadvantage, which has a direct impact on the indigenous children’s right to education.

Success attitudes of young ophthalmologists in the first decade of their career

PURPOSE: To describe the main success attitudes of young ophthalmologists in the first decade of their career. METHODS: This descriptive study comprised subjects selected from a sample of ophthalmologists who were participating in a congress, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The inclusion criteria were as follows: ophthalmologists under the age of 40 years, within 5-10 years from ophthalmology residency conclusion. The subjects were asked about the three main success attitudes in their personal experience during the first years of ophthalmology practice. After the initial results, the 10 most frequently mentioned attitudes were listed and volunteers were again interviewed to choose, within the latter list, the three main attitudes. RESULTS: Forty-eight ophthalmologists were interviewed, 24 (50%) were male; the mean age was 37 years (SD: 2 years, range: 33-40 years) and the mean time from ophthalmology residency conclusion was 8 years (SD: 1 year, range: 5-10 years). The frequency of such mentioned success attitudes were as follows: to invest in professional updating (22.9%), to have a good relationship with patients and professional partners (18.8%), to prioritize individual and family happiness (12.5%), initially to work in an established group (11.1%), to work in public service (9.7%), to have their own business with a homogeneous group (7.6%), to save money (7.6%), to be ready to resume work (4.2%), to get business administration skills (4.2%), and to have professional insurance (0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The three main success attitudes consisted in investing in professional updating (22.9%), maintaining a good relationship with patients and professional partners (18.8%), and prioritizing individual and family happiness (12.5%). Although these results should not be generalized, they are helpful not only for those ophthalmologists at the beginning of a career but also those who want to reflect on what to prioritize in their professional practice.

O jogo de futebol no contexto escolar e extraescolar : encontro, confronto e atualização

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física