Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Some causes of unreliability of fishery statistics on the African great lakes and possible ways of bettering the statistics

This paper is based on a two year's intensive statistical data collection survey on Lake Kyoga, observations made on Lake Victoria over the last decade occasional visits on Lake Albert (Mobutu) and Lake Malawi. World over, scientists have kept doubting the fisheries statistical figures presented by various African countries. Some countries fail to present any figures. This paper, therefore, narrates most of the causes and possible solutions to those problems.

Past and recent trends in the exploitation of the great lakes fisheries of Uganda

Uganda's fish production has shown a substantial increase from a level of 61,500 tonnes in 1961 to a total of 214,302 tonnes in 1988. During this period significant changes also occurred in species composition, fishing factors, and patterns of utilisation. This paper briefly summarises the fisheries of Uganda's great lakes and reviews past and present trends in their exploitation, as reflected in available catch and effort data collected through the Fisheries Department statistical reporting system.

On dangers to rational exploitation and development of the resources of the great lakes of Africa

The major dangers facing the resources of the Great Lakes of Africa include over exploitation, falling species diversity, accumulating pollution, and a probable decline in fishery productivity. These dangers may be viewed as accentuated by: i) Inadequate scientific knowledge on the exploited resources ii) Reluctance to apply even the limited scientific information available, by fishery administrators iii) Constant increase in the demand for fish and other aquatic resources. iv) Lack of commitment to active collaboration and co-operation by riparian states regarding development and management of the shared resources. This paper discusses the above factors in relation to the dangerous trends facing the resources of the Great Lakes of Africa. The discussion is intended to contribute to the promotion of rational and sustainable utilisation of the aquatic resources of these lakes.

African 2, a clonal complex of Mycobacterium bovis epidemiologically important in East Africa

We have identified a clonal complex of Mycobacterium bovis isolated at high frequency from cattle in Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. We have named this related group of M. bovis strains the African 2 (Af2) clonal complex of M. bovis. Af2 strains are defined by a specific chromosomal deletion (RDAf2) and can be identified by the absence of spacers 3 to 7 in their spoligotype patterns. Deletion analysis of M. bovis isolates from Algeria, Mali, Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, and Mozambique did not identify any strains of the Af2 clonal complex, suggesting that this clonal complex of M. bovis is localized in East Africa. The specific spoligotype pattern of the Af2 clonal complex was rarely identified among isolates from outside Africa, and the few isolates that were found and tested were intact at the RDAf2 locus. We conclude that the Af2 clonal complex is localized to cattle in East Africa. We found that strains of the Af2 clonal complex of M. bovis have, in general, four or more copies of the insertion sequence IS6110, in contrast to the majority of M. bovis strains isolated from cattle, which are thought to carry only one or a few copies.

Asociación de las violencias física, sexual y comunitaria con el embarazo en adolescentes: análisis multinivel

Objetivos Determinar si existe asociación entre la exposición a violencia, experimentada a nivel individual o municipal, y el embarazo adolescente en mujeres Colombianas entre 13 y 19 años de edad que contestaron la Encuesta de Demografía y Salud en el año 2010. Métodos Estudio de corte transversal, nacional y multinivel. Se tomaron datos de dos niveles jerárquicos: Nivel- 1: Datos individuales de una muestra representativa de 13.313 mujeres entre 13 y 19 años de edad provenientes de La Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud del año 2010 y Nivel- 2: Datos municipales de 258 municipios provenientes de las estadísticas vitales del DANE. Resultados La prevalencia del embarazo adolescente fue del 16.8% IC 95% [16.2-17.4]. El análisis mostró que la asociación entre embarazo adolescente y violencia tanto individual, representada como violencia sexual [OR= 6.99 IC99% 4.80-10.10] y violencia física [OR= 1.74 IC99% 1.47-2.05] así como la violencia municipal medida con tasas de homicidios altas [OR= 1.99 IC99% 1.29-3.07] y muy altas [OR= 2.10 IC99% 1.21-3.61] se mantuvo estadísticamente significativa después de ajustar por las variables: Edad [OR= 1.81 IC99% 1.71-1.91], ocupación [OR= 1.62 IC99% 1.37-1.93], educación primaria o sin educación [OR= 2.20 IC99% 1.47-3.30], educación secundaria [OR= 1.70 IC99% 1.24-2.32], asistir al colegio [OR= 0.18 IC99% 0.15-0.21], conocimiento en la fisiología reproductiva [OR= 1.28 IC99% 1.06-1.54], el índice de riqueza Q1, Q2, Q3 [OR= 2.18 IC99% 1.42-3.34], [OR= 2.00 IC99% 1.39-2.28], [OR= 1.82 IC99% 1.92-2.25] y alto porcentaje de Necesidades básicas insatisfechas a nivel municipal [OR= 2.34 IC99% 1.55-3.52]. Conclusiones Este estudio mostró una relación significativamente estadística entre la violencia sexual y física con el inicio de relaciones sexuales y embarazo adolescente después de controlar por factores sociodemográficos y conocimientos en reproducción sexual en mujeres colombianas de 13 a 19 años en el año 2010. Esta asociación debe continuar siendo estudiada para lograr optimizar las estrategias de prevención y disminuir la tasa actual de embarazos adolescentes en el país y sus consecuencias.