Chemopreventive activity of systemically administered curcumin on oral cancer in the 4-nitroquinoline 1-oxide model

Curcumin has therapeutic potential in preventing several types of cancer, including colon, liver, prostate, and breast. The goal of this study was to evaluate the chemopreventive activity of systemically administered curcumin on oral carcinogenesis induced by 4-nitroquinolone-1-oxide (4-NQO). A total of 50 male albino rats, Rattus norvegicus, (Holtzman), were divided into five groups (n=10 per group). Four of these groups were exposed to 50 ppm 4-NQO in their drinking water ad libitum for 8 or 12 weeks, two groups were treated with curcumin by oral gavage at 30 or 100 mg/kg per day, and one group was treated with corn oil (vehicle) only. The negative control group was euthanized at baseline. Tongues of all animals were removed after euthanasia and used in the subsequent analysis because the tongue is the primary site of carcinogenesis in this model. Descriptive histological analysis and immunohistochemistry for PCNA, Bcl-2, SOCS1 e-3, and STAT3 were performed to assess the oncogenic process. The gene expression of Vimentin, E-cadherin, N-cadherin, or TWIST1 was assessed using RT-qPCR as a representative of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) events. The administration of curcumin at 100 mg/kg during the 12 weeks markedly decreased the expression of PCNA, Bcl-2, SOCS1 e -3, and STAT3. Curcumin also minimized the cellular atypia under microscopic analysis and diminished the expression of the genes associated with EMT. These findings demonstrate that the systemic administration of curcumin has chemopreventive activity during oral carcinogenesis induced by 4-NQO.

Chemopreventive Activity of Systemically Administered Curcumin on Oral Cancer in the 4-Nitroquinoline 1-Oxide Model

Curcumin has therapeutic potential in preventing several types of cancer, including colon, liver, prostate, and breast. The goal of this study was to evaluate the chemopreventive activity of systemically administered curcumin on oral carcinogenesis induced by 4-nitroquinolone-1-oxide (4-NQO). A total of 50 male albino rats, Rattus norvegicus, (Holtzman), were divided into five groups (n = 10 per group). Four of these groups were exposed to 50 ppm 4-NQO in their drinking water ad libitum for 8 or 12 weeks, two groups were treated with curcumin by oral gavage at 30 or 100 mg/kg per day, and one group was treated with corn oil (vehicle) only. The negative control group was euthanized at baseline. Tongues of all animals were removed after euthanasia and used in the subsequent analysis because the tongue is the primary site of carcinogenesis in this model. Descriptive histological analysis and immunohistochemistry for PCNA, Bcl-2, SOCS1 e-3, and STAT3 were performed to assess the oncogenic process. The gene expression of Vimentin, E-cadherin, N-cadherin, or TWIST1 was assessed using RT-qPCR as a representative of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) events. The administration of curcumin at 100 mg/kg during the 12 weeks markedly decreased the expression of PCNA, Bcl-2, SOCS1 e-3, and STAT3. Curcumin also minimized the cellular atypia under microscopic analysis and diminished the expression of the genes associated with EMT. These findings demonstrate that the systemic administration of curcumin has chemopreventive activity during oral carcinogenesis induced by 4-NQO. J. Cell. Biochem. 116: 787-796, 2015. (C) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Antifibrotic Effect of Tamoxifen in a Model of Progressive Renal Disease

Tamoxifen, a selective estrogen receptor modulator, has antifibrotic properties; however, whether it can attenuate renal fibrosis is unknown. In this study, we tested the effects of tamoxifen in a model of hypertensive nephrosclerosis (chronic inhibition of nitric oxide synthesis with L-NAME). After 30 days, treated rats had significantly lower levels of albuminuria as well as lower histologic scores for glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis than untreated controls. Tamoxifen was renoprotective despite having no effect on the sustained, severe hypertension induced by L-NAME. Tamoxifen prevented the accumulation of extracellular matrix by decreasing the expression of collagen I, collagen III, and fibronectin mRNA and protein. These renoprotective effects associated with inhibition of TGF-beta 1 and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and with a significant reduction in a-smooth muscle actin-positive cells in the renal interstitium. Furthermore, tamoxifen abrogated IL-1 beta- and angiotensin-II-induced proliferation of fibroblasts from both kidney explants and from the NRK-49F cell line. Tamoxifen also inhibited the expression of extracellular matrix components and the production and release of TGF-beta 1 into the supernatant of these cells. In summary, tamoxifen exhibits antifibrotic effects in the L-NAME model of hypertensive nephrosclerosis, likely through the inhibition of TGF-beta 1, suggesting that it may have therapeutic use in CKD treatment.

Angiotensin II Facilitates Breast Cancer Cell Migration and Metastasis

Breast cancer metastasis is a leading cause of death by malignancy in women worldwide. Efforts are being made to further characterize the rate-limiting steps of cancer metastasis, i.e. extravasation of circulating tumor cells and colonization of secondary organs. In this study, we investigated whether angiotensin II, a major vasoactive peptide both produced locally and released in the bloodstream, may trigger activating signals that contribute to cancer cell extravasation and metastasis. We used an experimental in vivo model of cancer metastasis in which bioluminescent breast tumor cells (D3H2LN) were injected intra-cardiacally into nude mice in order to recapitulate the late and essential steps of metastatic dissemination. Real-time intravital imaging studies revealed that angiotensin II accelerates the formation of metastatic foci at secondary sites. Pre-treatment of cancer cells with the peptide increases the number of mice with metastases, as well as the number and size of metastases per mouse. In vitro, angiotensin II contributes to each sequential step of cancer metastasis by promoting cancer cell adhesion to endothelial cells, trans-endothelial migration and tumor cell migration across extracellular matrix. At the molecular level, a total of 102 genes differentially expressed following angiotensin II pretreatment were identified by comparative DNA microarray. Angiotensin II regulates two groups of connected genes related to its precursor angiotensinogen. Among those, up-regulated MMP2/MMP9 and ICAM1 stand at the crossroad of a network of genes involved in cell adhesion, migration and invasion. Our data suggest that targeting angiotensin II production or action may represent a valuable therapeutic option to prevent metastatic progression of invasive breast tumors.

Transcriptional effects of 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D3 physiological and supra-physiological concentrations in breast cancer organotypic culture

Background Vitamin D transcriptional effects were linked to tumor growth control, however, the hormone targets were determined in cell cultures exposed to supra physiological concentrations of 1,25(OH)2D3 (50-100nM). Our aim was to evaluate the transcriptional effects of 1,25(OH)2D3 in a more physiological model of breast cancer, consisting of fresh tumor slices exposed to 1,25(OH)2D3 at concentrations that can be attained in vivo. Methods Tumor samples from post-menopausal breast cancer patients were sliced and cultured for 24 hours with or without 1,25(OH)2D3 0.5nM or 100nM. Gene expression was analyzed by microarray (SAM paired analysis, FDR≤0.1) or RT-qPCR (p≤0.05, Friedman/Wilcoxon test). Expression of candidate genes was then evaluated in mammary epithelial/breast cancer lineages and cancer associated fibroblasts (CAFs), exposed or not to 1,25(OH)2D3 0.5nM, using RT-qPCR, western blot or immunocytochemistry. Results 1,25(OH)2D3 0.5nM or 100nM effects were evaluated in five tumor samples by microarray and seven and 136 genes, respectively, were up-regulated. There was an enrichment of genes containing transcription factor binding sites for the vitamin D receptor (VDR) in samples exposed to 1,25(OH)2D3 near physiological concentration. Genes up-modulated by both 1,25(OH)2D3 concentrations were CYP24A1, DPP4, CA2, EFTUD1, TKTL1, KCNK3. Expression of candidate genes was subsequently evaluated in another 16 samples by RT-qPCR and up-regulation of CYP24A1, DPP4 and CA2 by 1,25(OH)2D3 was confirmed. To evaluate whether the transcripitonal targets of 1,25(OH)2D3 0.5nM were restricted to the epithelial or stromal compartments, gene expression was examined in HB4A, C5.4, SKBR3, MDA-MB231, MCF-7 lineages and CAFs, using RT-qPCR. In epithelial cells, there was a clear induction of CYP24A1, CA2, CD14 and IL1RL1. In fibroblasts, in addition to CYP24A1 induction, there was a trend towards up-regulation of CA2, IL1RL1, and DPP4. A higher protein expression of CD14 in epithelial cells and CA2 and DPP4 in CAFs exposed to 1,25(OH)2D3 0.5nM was detected. Conclusions In breast cancer specimens a short period of 1,25(OH)2D3 exposure at near physiological concentration modestly activates the hormone transcriptional pathway. Induction of CYP24A1, CA2, DPP4, IL1RL1 expression appears to reflect 1,25(OH)2D3 effects in epithelial as well as stromal cells, however, induction of CD14 expression is likely restricted to the epithelial compartment.

Radiation induced apoptosis and initial DNA damage are inversely related in locally advanced breast cancer patients

[EN] Background: DNA-damage assays, quantifying the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced by radiation, have been proposed as a predictive test for radiation-induced toxicity. Determination of radiation-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes by flow cytometry analysis has also been proposed as an approach for predicting normal tissue responses following radiotherapy. The aim of the present study was to explore the association between initial DNA damage, estimated by the number of double-strand breaks induced by a given radiation dose, and the radio-induced apoptosis rates observed. Methods: Peripheral blood lymphocytes were taken from 26 consecutive patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma. Radiosensitivity of lymphocytes was quantified as the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced per Gy and per DNA unit (200 Mbp). Radio-induced apoptosis at 1, 2 and 8 Gy was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Results: Radiation-induced apoptosis increased in order to radiation dose and data fitted to a semi logarithmic mathematical model. A positive correlation was found among radio-induced apoptosis values at different radiation doses: 1, 2 and 8 Gy (p < 0.0001 in all cases). Mean DSB/Gy/DNA unit obtained was 1.70 ± 0.83 (range 0.63-4.08; median, 1.46). A statistically significant inverse correlation was found between initial damage to DNA and radio-induced apoptosis at 1 Gy (p = 0.034). A trend toward 2 Gy (p = 0.057) and 8 Gy (p = 0.067) was observed after 24 hours of incubation. Conclusions: An inverse association was observed for the first time between these variables, both considered as predictive factors to radiation toxicity.

Mitochondrial dysfunction in a cell model of thyroid oncocytoma

The role of mitochondrial dysfunction in cancer has long been a subject of great interest. In this study, such dysfunction has been examined with regards to thyroid oncocytoma, a rare form of cancer, accounting for less than 5% of all thyroid cancers. A peculiar characteristic of thyroid oncocytic cells is the presence of an abnormally large number of mitochondria in the cytoplasm. Such mitochondrial hyperplasia has also been observed in cells derived from patients suffering from mitochondrial encephalomyopathies, where mutations in the mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA) encoding the respiratory complexes result in oxidative phosphorylation dysfunction. An increase in the number of mitochondria occurs in the latter in order to compensate for the respiratory deficiency. This fact spurred the investigation into the presence of analogous mutations in thyroid oncocytic cells. In this study, the only available cell model of thyroid oncocytoma was utilised, the XTC-1 cell line, established from an oncocytic thyroid metastasis to the breast. In order to assess the energetic efficiency of these cells, they were incubated in a medium lacking glucose and supplemented instead with galactose. When subjected to such conditions, glycolysis is effectively inhibited and the cells are forced to use the mitochondria for energy production. Cell viability experiments revealed that XTC-1 cells were unable to survive in galactose medium. This was in marked contrast to the TPC-1 control cell line, a thyroid tumour cell line which does not display the oncocytic phenotype. In agreement with these findings, subsequent experiments assessing the levels of cellular ATP over incubation time in galactose medium, showed a drastic and continual decrease in ATP levels only in the XTC-1 cell line. Furthermore, experiments on digitonin-permeabilised cells revealed that the respiratory dysfunction in the latter was due to a defect in complex I of the respiratory chain. Subsequent experiments using cybrids demonstrated that this defect could be attributed to the mitochondrially-encoded subunits of complex I as opposed to the nuclearencoded subunits. Confirmation came with mtDNA sequencing, which detected the presence of a novel mutation in the ND1 subunit of complex I. In addition, a mutation in the cytochrome b subunit of complex III of the respiratory chain was detected. The fact that XTC-1 cells are unable to survive when incubated in galactose medium is consistent with the fact that many cancers are largely dependent on glycolysis for energy production. Indeed, numerous studies have shown that glycolytic inhibitors are able to induce apoptosis in various cancer cell lines. Subsequent experiments were therefore performed in order to identify the mode of XTC-1 cell death when subjected to the metabolic stress imposed by the forced use of the mitochondria for energy production. Cell shrinkage and mitochondrial fragmentation were observed in the dying cells, which would indicate an apoptotic type of cell death. Analysis of additional parameters however revealed a lack of both DNA fragmentation and caspase activation, thus excluding a classical apoptotic type of cell death. Interestingly, cleavage of the actin component of the cytoskeleton was observed, implicating the action of proteases in this mode of cell demise. However, experiments employing protease inhibitors failed to identify the specific protease involved. It has been reported in the literature that overexpression of Bcl-2 is able to rescue cells presenting a respiratory deficiency. As the XTC-1 cell line is not only respiration-deficient but also exhibits a marked decrease in Bcl-2 expression, it is a perfect model with which to study the relationship between Bcl-2 and oxidative phosphorylation in respiratory-deficient cells. Contrary to the reported literature studies on various cell lines harbouring defects in the respiratory chain, Bcl-2 overexpression was not shown to increase cell survival or rescue the energetic dysfunction in XTC-1 cells. Interestingly however, it had a noticeable impact on cell adhesion and morphology. Whereas XTC-1 cells shrank and detached from the growth surface under conditions of metabolic stress, Bcl-2-overexpressing XTC-1 cells appeared much healthier and were up to 45% more adherent. The target of Bcl-2 in this setting appeared to be the actin cytoskeleton, as the cleavage observed in XTC-1 cells expressing only endogenous levels of Bcl-2, was inhibited in Bcl-2-overexpressing cells. Thus, although unable to rescue XTC-1 cells in terms of cell viability, Bcl-2 is somehow able to stabilise the cytoskeleton, resulting in modifications in cell morphology and adhesion. The mitochondrial respiratory deficiency observed in cancer cells is thought not only to cause an increased dependency on glycolysis but it is also thought to blunt cellular responses to anticancer agents. The effects of several therapeutic agents were thus assessed for their death-inducing ability in XTC-1 cells. Cell viability experiments clearly showed that the cells were more resistant to stimuli which generate reactive oxygen species (tert-butylhydroperoxide) and to mitochondrial calcium-mediated apoptotic stimuli (C6-ceramide), as opposed to stimuli inflicting DNA damage (cisplatin) and damage to protein kinases(staurosporine). Various studies in the literature have reported that the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-coactivator 1(PGC-1α), which plays a fundamental role in mitochondrial biogenesis, is also involved in protecting cells against apoptosis caused by the former two types of stimuli. In accordance with these observations, real-time PCR experiments showed that XTC-1 cells express higher mRNA levels of this coactivator than do the control cells, implicating its importance in drug resistance. In conclusion, this study has revealed that XTC-1 cells, like many cancer cell lines, are characterised by a reduced energetic efficiency due to mitochondrial dysfunction. Said dysfunction has been attributed to mutations in respiratory genes encoded by the mitochondrial genome. Although the mechanism of cell demise in conditions of metabolic stress is unclear, the potential of targeting thyroid oncocytic cancers using glycolytic inhibitors has been illustrated. In addition, the discovery of mtDNA mutations in XTC-1 cells has enabled the use of this cell line as a model with which to study the relationship between Bcl-2 overexpression and oxidative phosphorylation in cells harbouring mtDNA mutations and also to investigate the significance of such mutations in establishing resistance to apoptotic stimuli.

Stem cell pathways in the basal-like breast carcinoma: the role of beta-catenin and HIF-1alpha

Basal-like tumor is an aggressive breast carcinoma subtype that displays an expression signature similar to that of the basal/myoepithelial cells of the breast tissue. Basal-like carcinoma are characterized by over-expression of the Epidermal Growth Factor receptor (EGFR), high frequency of p53 mutations, cytoplasmic/nuclear localization of beta-catenin, overexpression of the Hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1alpha target Carbonic Anhydrase isoenzime 9 (CA9) and a gene expression pattern similar to that of normal and cancer stem cells, including the over-expression of the mammary stem cell markers CD44. In this study we investigated the role of p53, EGFR, beta-catenin and HIF-1alpha in the regulation of stem cell features and genes associated with the basal-like gene expression profile. The findings reported in this investigation indicate that p53 inactivation in ductal breast carcinoma cells leads to increased EGFR mRNA and protein levels. In our experimental model, EGFR overexpression induces beta-catenin cytoplasmatic stabilization and transcriptional activity and, by that, leads to increased aggressive features including mammosphere (MS) forming and growth capacity, invasive potential and overexpression of the mammary stem cell gene CD44. Moreover we found that EGFR/beta-catenin axis promotes hypoxia survival in breast carcinoma cells via increased CA9 expression. Indeed beta-catenin positively regulates CA9 expression upon hypoxia exposure. Interestingly we found that beta-catenin inhibits HIF-1alpha transcriptional activity. Looking for the mechanism, we found that CA9 expression is promoted by HIF-1alpha and cytoplasmatic beta-catenin further increased it post-transcriptionally, via direct mRNA binding and stabilization. These data reveal a functional beta-catenin/HIF-1alpha interplay among hallmarks of basal-like tumors and unveil a new functional role for cytoplasmic beta-catenin in the phenotype of such tumors. Therefore it can be proposed that the interplay here described among EGFR/beta-catenin and HIF-1alpha may play a role in breast cancer stem cell survival and function.

Lesion detection and classification in breast cancer: evaluation of approaches based on morphological features, tracer kinetic modelling and semi-quantitative parameters in MR functional imaging (DCE-MRI)

The diagnosis, grading and classification of tumours has benefited considerably from the development of DCE-MRI which is now essential to the adequate clinical management of many tumour types due to its capability in detecting active angiogenesis. Several strategies have been proposed for DCE-MRI evaluation. Visual inspection of contrast agent concentration curves vs time is a very simple yet operator dependent procedure, therefore more objective approaches have been developed in order to facilitate comparison between studies. In so called model free approaches, descriptive or heuristic information extracted from time series raw data have been used for tissue classification. The main issue concerning these schemes is that they have not a direct interpretation in terms of physiological properties of the tissues. On the other hand, model based investigations typically involve compartmental tracer kinetic modelling and pixel-by-pixel estimation of kinetic parameters via non-linear regression applied on region of interests opportunely selected by the physician. This approach has the advantage to provide parameters directly related to the pathophysiological properties of the tissue such as vessel permeability, local regional blood flow, extraction fraction, concentration gradient between plasma and extravascular-extracellular space. Anyway, nonlinear modelling is computational demanding and the accuracy of the estimates can be affected by the signal-to-noise ratio and by the initial solutions. The principal aim of this thesis is investigate the use of semi-quantitative and quantitative parameters for segmentation and classification of breast lesion. The objectives can be subdivided as follow: describe the principal techniques to evaluate time intensity curve in DCE-MRI with focus on kinetic model proposed in literature; to evaluate the influence in parametrization choice for a classic bi-compartmental kinetic models; to evaluate the performance of a method for simultaneous tracer kinetic modelling and pixel classification; to evaluate performance of machine learning techniques training for segmentation and classification of breast lesion.

Microwave breast imaging reconstruction

In this thesis I analyzed the microwave tomography method to recognize breast can- cer. I study how identify the dielectric permittivity, the Helmoltz equation parameter used to model the real physic problem. Through a non linear least squares method I solve a problem of parameters identification; I show the theoric approach and the devel- opment to reach the results. I use the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, applied on COMSOL software to multiphysic models; so I do numerical proofs on semplified test problems compared to the specific real problem to solve.

Tomographic 3D reconstruction through linear inversion for breast microwave imaging

In the present thesis we address the problem of detecting and localizing a small spherical target with characteristic electrical properties inside a volume of cylindrical shape, representing female breast, with MWI. One of the main works of this project is to properly extend the existing linear inversion algorithm from planar slice to volume reconstruction; results obtained, under the same conditions and experimental setup are reported for the two different approaches. Preliminar comparison and performance analysis of the reconstruction algorithms is performed via numerical simulations in a software-created environment: a single dipole antenna is used for illuminating the virtual breast phantom from different positions and, for each position, the corresponding scattered field value is registered. Collected data are then exploited in order to reconstruct the investigation domain, along with the scatterer position, in the form of image called pseudospectrum. During this process the tumor is modeled as a dielectric sphere of small radius and, for electromagnetic scattering purposes, it's treated as a point-like source. To improve the performance of reconstruction technique, we repeat the acquisition for a number of frequencies in a given range: the different pseudospectra, reconstructed from single frequency data, are incoherently combined with MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) method which returns an overall enhanced image. We exploit multi-frequency approach to test the performance of 3D linear inversion reconstruction algorithm while varying the source position inside the phantom and the height of antenna plane. Analysis results and reconstructed images are then reported. Finally, we perform 3D reconstruction from experimental data gathered with the acquisition system in the microwave laboratory at DIFA, University of Bologna for a recently developed breast-phantom prototype; obtained pseudospectrum and performance analysis for the real model are reported.

Inhibition of the AKT/mTOR and erbB pathways by gefitinib, perifosine and analogs of gonadotropin-releasing hormone I and II to overcome tamoxifen resistance in breast cancer cells

Endocrine resistance in breast cancer remains a major clinical problem and is caused by crosstalk mechanisms of growth factor receptor cascades, such as the erbB and PI3K/AKT pathways. The possibilities a single breast cancer cell has to achieve resistance are manifold. We developed a model of 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen (OHT)‑resistant human breast cancer cell lines and compared their different expression patterns, activation of growth factor receptor pathways and compared cells by genomic hybridization (CGH). We also tested a panel of selective inhibitors of the erbB and AKT/mTOR pathways to overcome OHT resistance. OHT‑resistant MCF-7-TR and T47D-TR cells showed increased expression of HER2 and activation of AKT. T47D-TR cells showed EGFR expression and activated MAPK (ERK-1/2), whereas in resistant MCF-7-TR cells activated AKT was due to loss of CTMP expression. CGH analyses revealed remarkable aberrations in resistant sublines, which were predominantly depletions. Gefitinib inhibited erbB signalling and restored OHT sensitivity in T47D-TR cells. The AKT inhibitor perifosine restored OHT sensitivity in MCF-7-TR cells. All cell lines showed expression of receptors for gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) I and II, and analogs of GnRH-I/II restored OHT sensitivity in both resistant cell lines by inhibition of erbB and AKT signalling. In conclusion, mechanisms to escape endocrine treatment in breast cancer share similarities in expression profiling but are based on substantially different genetic aberrations. Evaluation of activated mediators of growth factor receptor cascades is helpful to predict response to specific inhibitors. Expression of GnRH-I/II receptors provides multi-targeting treatment strategies.

Predicting perceived vulnerability for breast cancer among women with an average breast cancer risk

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the present study was to investigate predictors of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer in women with an average risk for breast cancer. On the basis of empirical findings that suggested which variables might be associated with perceived vulnerability for breast cancer, we investigated whether knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, cancer worry, intrusions about breast cancer, optimism about not getting cancer and perceived health status have a predictive value for perceived breast cancer vulnerability. DESIGN: In a 3-step approach, we recruited 292 women from the general public in Germany who had neither a family history of breast cancer nor breast cancer themselves. After receiving an initial informational letter about study objectives, the women were interviewed by telephone and then asked to fill in a self-administered questionnaire. METHODS: We used structural equation modelling and hypothesized that each of the included variables has a direct influence on perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. RESULTS: We found a valid model with acceptable fit indices. Optimism about not getting cancer, intrusions about breast cancer and women's perceived health status explained 32% of the variance of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. Cancer worry and knowledge about breast cancer did not influence perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Perceived vulnerability for breast cancer is associated with health-related variables more than with knowledge about breast cancer risk factors.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MULTIPLE MODEL EVALUATION ABSENT THE GOLD STANDARD VIA MODEL COMBINATION

We describe a method for evaluating an ensemble of predictive models given a sample of observations comprising the model predictions and the outcome event measured with error. Our formulation allows us to simultaneously estimate measurement error parameters, true outcome — aka the gold standard — and a relative weighting of the predictive scores. We describe conditions necessary to estimate the gold standard and for these estimates to be calibrated and detail how our approach is related to, but distinct from, standard model combination techniques. We apply our approach to data from a study to evaluate a collection of BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction scores. In this example, genotype is measured with error by one or more genetic assays. We estimate true genotype for each individual in the dataset, operating characteristics of the commonly used genotyping procedures and a relative weighting of the scores. Finally, we compare the scores against the gold standard genotype and find that Mendelian scores are, on average, the more refined and better calibrated of those considered and that the comparison is sensitive to measurement error in the gold standard.