Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

A statistical model for sea surface diurnal warming driven by numercial weather predictions fluxes and winds

A statistical model is derived relating the diurnal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) to the net surface heat flux and surface wind speed from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model is derived using fluxes and winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) NWP model and SSTs from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). In the model, diurnal warming has a linear dependence on the net surface heat flux integrated since (approximately) dawn and an inverse quadratic dependence on the maximum of the surface wind speed in the same period. The model coefficients are found by matching, for a given integrated heat flux, the frequency distributions of the maximum wind speed and the observed warming. Diurnal cooling, where it occurs, is modelled as proportional to the integrated heat flux divided by the heat capacity of the seasonal mixed layer. The model reproduces the statistics (mean, standard deviation, and 95-percentile) of the diurnal variation of SST seen by SEVIRI and reproduces the geographical pattern of mean warming seen by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). We use the functional dependencies in the statistical model to test the behaviour of two physical model of diurnal warming that display contrasting systematic errors.

A strongly attractive Fermi gas in an optical lattice

We study strongly attractive fermions in an optical lattice superimposed by a trapping potential. We calculate the densities of fermions and condensed bound molecules at zero temperature. There is a competition between dissociated fermions and molecules leading to a reduction of the density of fermions at the trap center. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solitons of two-component Bose-Einstein condensates modulated in space and time

In this Letter we present soliton solutions of two coupled nonlinear Schrodinger equations modulated in space and time. The approach allows us to obtain solitons for a large variety of solutions depending on the nonlinearity and potential profiles. As examples we show three cases with soliton solutions: a solution for the case of a potential changing from repulsive to attractive behavior, and the other two solutions corresponding to localized and delocalized nonlinearity terms, respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of the negative coupling parameter on the spectrum of a trapped Bose gas

The interest in attractive Bose-Einstein Condensates arises due to the chemical instabilities generate when the number of trapped atoms is above a critical number. In this case, recombination process promotes the collapse of the cloud. This behavior is normally geometry dependent. Within the context of the mean field approximation, the system is described by the Gross-Pitaevskii equation. We have considered the attractive Bose-Einstein condensate, confined in a nonspherical trap, investigating numerically and analytically the solutions, using controlled perturbation and self-similar approximation methods. This approximation is valid in all interval of the negative coupling parameter allowing interpolation between weak-coupling and strong-coupling limits. When using the self-similar approximation methods, accurate analytical formulas were derived. These obtained expressions are discussed for several different traps and may contribute to the understanding of experimental observations.

Route to turbulence in a trapped Bose-Einstein condensate

We have studied a Bose-Einstein condensate of (87)Rb atoms under an oscillatory excitation. For a fixed frequency of excitation, we have explored how the values of amplitude and time of excitation must be combined in order to produce quantum turbulence in the condensate. Depending on the combination of these parameters different behaviors are observed in the sample. For the lowest values of time and amplitude of excitation, we observe a bending of the main axis of the cloud. Increasing the amplitude of excitation we observe an increasing number of vortices. The vortex state can evolve into the turbulent regime if the parameters of excitation are driven up to a certain set of combinations. If the value of the parameters of these combinations is exceeded, all vorticity disappears and the condensate enters into a different regime which we have identified as the granular phase. Our results are summarized in a diagram of amplitude versus time of excitation in which the different structures can be identified. We also present numerical simulations of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation which support our observations. (C) 2011 by Astro Ltd. Published exclusively by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA

Dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates in double-well potentials

We study the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates in symmetric double-well potentials following a sudden change of the potential from the Mott-insulator to the superfluid regime. We introduce a continuum approximation that maps that problem onto the wave-packet dynamics of a particle in an anharmonic effective potential. For repulsive two-body interactions the visibility of interference fringes that result from the superposition of the two condensates following a stage of ballistic expansion exhibits a collapse of coherent oscillations onto a background value whose magnitude depends on the amount of squeezing of the initial state. Strong attractive interactions are found to stabilize the relative number dynamics. We visualize the dynamics of the system in phase space using a quasiprobability distribution that allows for an intuitive interpretation of the various types of dynamics.

Bifurcations and bistability in cavity-assisted photoassociation of Bose-Einstein-condensed molecules

We study the photoassociation of Bose-Einstein condensed atoms into molecules using an optical cavity field. The driven cavity field introduces a dynamical degree of freedom into the photoassociation process, whose role in determining the stationary behavior has not previously been considered. The semiclassical stationary solutions for the atom and molecules as well as the intracavity field are found and their stability and scaling properties are determined in terms of experimentally controllable parameters including driving amplitude of the cavity and the nonlinear interactions between atoms and molecules. For weak cavity driving, we find a bifurcation in the atom and molecule number occurs that signals a transition from a stable steady state to nonlinear Rabi oscillations. For a strongly driven cavity, there exists bistability in the atom and molecule number.

Quantum control of electromagnetically induced transparency dispersion via atomic tunneling in a double-well Bose-Einstein condensate

Electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) is an important tool for controlling light propagation and nonlinear wave mixing in atomic gases with potential applications ranging from quantum computing to table top tests of general relativity. Here we consider EIT in an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped in a double-well potential. A weak probe laser propagates through one of the wells and interacts with atoms in a three-level Lambda configuration. The well through which the probe propagates is dressed by a strong control laser with Rabi frequency Omega(mu), as in standard EIT systems. Tunneling between the wells at the frequency g provides a coherent coupling between identical electronic states in the two wells, which leads to the formation of interwell dressed states. The macroscopic interwell coherence of the BEC wave function results in the formation of two ultranarrow absorption resonances for the probe field that are inside of the ordinary EIT transparency window. We show that these new resonances can be interpreted in terms of the interwell dressed states and the formation of a type of dark state involving the control laser and the interwell tunneling. To either side of these ultranarrow resonances there is normal dispersion with very large slope controlled by g. We discuss prospects for observing these ultranarrow resonances and the corresponding regions of high dispersion experimentally.

Study of charge transport in blends of natural rubber and poly(o-methoxyaniline) based on a resistor network statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Statistical Model to DNA Melting

Um modelo estatístico para o DNA é estudado a fim de se obter informações sobre o comportamento de variáveis termodinâmicas. Atenção especial é dada à desnaturação térmica desta macromolécula.

Dynamics of bright matter-wave solitons in a Bose-Einstein condensate with inhomogeneous scattering length

We investigate dynamical effects of a bright soliton in Bose-Einstein condensed (BEC) systems with local and smooth space variations of the two-body atomic scattering length. It includes a discussion about the possible observation of a new type of standing nonlinear atomic matter wave in cigar-type traps. A rich dynamics is observed in the interaction between the soliton and an inhomogeneity. By considering an analytical time-dependent variational approach and also full numerical simulation of one-dimensional and three-dimensional Gross-Pitaevskii equations, we study processes such as trapping, reflection and transmission of the bright matter soliton due to the impurity. We also derive conditions for the collapse of the bright solitary wave, considering a quasi-one-dimensional BEC with attractive local inhomogeneity.