Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Accelerated ageing like a vigour test to diasporas of Myracrodruon urundeuva Fr. Allem

This work established the adequate temperature and the period of exposition for the accelerated ageing test with diasporas of Myracrodruon urundeuva from an area of the Cerrado in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Before and after the ageing, at the temperatures of 40ºC, 41ºC, 42ºC and 45ºC combined with periods of 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 hours, the water content and germination were evaluated. For each treatment, 12g of diasporas in mini chambers with 40 mL of distilled water were submitted to the accelerated ageing test. A total of 100 diasporas, divided into four replications, in plastic boxes, on two sheets of blotting paper, in germinator at 25ºC and 8 hours of photoperiod were germinated. In all treatments the content of water of the aged diasporas was superior to 20% and this value stabilized itself between 25% and 28%, from the 18 hours of exposition. Independently of the tested periods, the ageing at the temperatures of 40ºC, 41ºC and 42ºC did not affect the germination. After the ageing at 45ºC, the germination did not differ among the periods of 12, 18 and 24 hours of exposition, but in all these periods it was inferior to the control and superior to the periods of 30 and 36 hours. In these last two periods, fungi were observed. The accelerated ageing of diasporas of Myracrodruon urundeuva should be conducted at the temperature of 45ºC, during the exposition periods of 12 to 24 hours.

Detection of renal dysfunction based on serum creatinine levels in a Brazilian community: the Bambuí Health and Ageing Study

There are few population-based studies of renal dysfunction and none conducted in developing countries. In the present study the prevalence and predictors of elevated serum creatinine levels (SCr > or = 1.3 mg/dl for men and 1.1 mg/dl for women) were determined among Brazilian adults (18-59 years) and older adults (>60 years). Participants included all older adults (N = 1742) and a probabilistic sample of adults (N = 818) from Bambuí town, MG, Southeast Brazil. Predictors were investigated using multiple logistic regression. Mean SCr levels were 0.77 ± 0.15 mg/dl for adults, 1.02 ± 0.39 mg/dl for older men, and 0.81 ± 0.17 mg/dl for older women. Because there were only 4 cases (0.48%) with elevated SCr levels among adults, the analysis of elevated SCr levels was restricted to older adults. The overall prevalence of elevated SCr levels among the elderly was 5.09% (76/1494). The prevalence of hypercreatinemia increased significantly with age (chi² = 26.17, P = 0.000), being higher for older men (8.19%) than for older women (5.29%, chi² = 5.00, P = 0.02). Elevated SCr levels were associated with age 70-79 years (odds ratio [OR] = 2.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-4.42), hypertension (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.34-6.92), use of antihypertensive drugs (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.26-4.82), chest pain (OR = 3.37, 95% CI: 1.31-8.74), and claudication (OR = 3.43, 95% CI: 1.30-9.09) among men, and with age >80 years (OR = 4.88, 95% CI: 2.24-10.65), use of antihypertensive drugs (OR = 4.06, 95% CI: 1.67-9.86), physical inactivity (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.11-4.02) and myocardial infarction (OR = 3.89, 95% CI: 1.58-9.62) among women. The prevalence of renal dysfunction observed was much lower than that reported in other population-based studies, but predictors were similar. New investigations are needed to confirm the variability in prevalence and associated factors of renal dysfunction among populations.

Sleep, ageing and night work

Studies have shown that the frequency or worsening of sleep disorders tends to increase with age and that the ability to perform circadian adjustments tends to decrease in individuals who work the night shift. This condition can cause consequences such as excessive sleepiness, which are often a factor in accidents that occur at work. The present study investigated the effects of age on the daytime and nighttime sleep patterns using polysomnography (PSG) of long-haul bus drivers working fixed night or day shifts. A total of 124 drivers, free of sleep disorders and grouped according to age (<45 years, N = 85, and ≥45 years, N = 39) and PSG timing (daytime (D) PSG, N = 60; nighttime (N) PSG, N = 64) participated in the study. We observed a significant effect of bedtime (D vs N) and found that the length of daytime sleep was shorter [D: <45 years (336.10 ± 73.75 min) vs N: <45 years (398 ± 78.79 min) and D: ≥45 years (346.57 ± 43.17 min) vs N: ≥45 years (386.44 ± 52.92 min); P ≤ 0.05]. Daytime sleep was less efficient compared to nighttime sleep [D: <45 years (78.86 ± 13.30%) vs N: <45 years (86.45 ± 9.77%) and D: ≥45 years (79.89 ± 9.45%) and N: ≥45 years (83.13 ± 9.13%); P ≤ 0.05]. An effect of age was observed for rapid eye movement sleep [D: <45 years (18.05 ± 6.12%) vs D: ≥45 years (15.48 ± 7.11%) and N: <45 years (23.88 ± 6.75%) vs N: ≥45 years (20.77 ± 5.64%); P ≤ 0.05], which was greater in younger drivers. These findings are inconsistent with the notion that older night workers are more adversely affected than younger night workers by the challenge of attempting to rest during the day.

Alterations in the lipid and soluble sugar content of melanoxylon brauna seeds during natural and accelerated ageing

The decay of seeds is irreversible and at best can only be delayed by applying techniques that reduce the velocity of the metabolic reactions involved. There is little information on the biochemistry of tropical forest tree seeds related to their storability. It was investigated the influence of the composition of lipids and soluble sugars of two storage compartments, the cotyledons and the embryonic axis, of Melanoxylon brauna Schot. (Leguminosae- Caesalpinioideae), a hardwood known as black brauna, seeds stored at 20 ºC for 0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months (natural ageing) and for 0, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours at 40 ºC (accelerated ageing). The levels of fatty acids and monosaccharides varied differentially in each of the embryo storage compartments. Changes in oligosaccharide levels were similar for both types of ageing, diminishing in both compartments. Ageing can be attributed to the significant decrease of oligosaccharides and the increase of glucose in both types of ageing and both embryo compartments.

Derivative hedging strategies for bitumen price risk

The objective of the study is to extend the existing hedging literature of the commodity price risks by investigating what kind of hedging strategies can be used in companies using bitumen as raw material in their production. Five different alternative swap hedging strategies in bitumen markets are empirically tested. Strategies tested are full hedge strategy, simple, conservative, and aggressive term structure strategies, and implied volatility strategy. The effectiveness of the alternative strategies is measured by excess returns compared to no hedge strategy. In addition, the downside risk of each strategy is measured with target absolute semi-deviation. Results indicate that any of the tested strategies does not outperform the no hedge strategy in terms of excess returns in all maturities. The best-performing aggressive term structure strategy succeeds to create positive excess returns only in short maturities. However, risk seems to increase hand-in-hand with the excess returns so that the best-performing strategies get the highest risk metrics as well. This implicates that the company willing to gain from favorable price movements must be ready to bear a greater risk. Thus, no superior hedging strategy over the others is found.

Pilot Plant Studies On The Utilization Of Industrial Wastes For Industrial Bitumen Manufacture

The main objectives of the investigations reported in the present thesis are the following: (1) to find out some industrial wastes as cheaper additives to augment the air-blowing polymerization process of bitumen. This will bring down the cost of production of industrial bitumen which can be applied for the manufacture of bitumenous paints, roofing and flooring materials etc. (2) to find out suitable promoters for the above additives. This will bring down the consumption of the additives (3) to help in the industrial pollution control (4) to investigate the usefulness of the industrial bitumen produced in the production of bituminous paints (5) to find out thekinetic parameters of the reactions invovled with different additives. This is essential for the design, construction and operation of new industrial bitumen plants using the additives investigated. This will also enable us to establish the mechanism of the reactions involved in the process

The effects of ageing on self-reported aggression measures are partly explained by response bias

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Common black coatings - reflectance and ageing characteristics in the 0.32-14.3 mu m wavelength range

The diffuse and regular reflectances of five optically absorbing coatings frequently used in optical systems, were measured over the 0.32-14.3 mu m wavelength range, before and after exposure to heat and intense optical radiation. The measured coatings included Nextel Velvet Black, an anodised coating and NPL Super Black. The anodised coating exhibited substantial variations in its diffuse and regular reflectance values after thermal and simulated solar ageing. Solar and thermal ageing of the Nextel Velvet Black resulted in increases of its reflectance. However, thermal ageing tended to decrease the reflectance of the other paint samples examined. Thermal and solar ageing of the NPL Super Black resulted in only minor changes in its reflectance characteristics. All measurements are traceable to the UK National Standards.

Biological and chemical assessment of zinc ageing in field soils

As zinc (Zn) is both an essential trace element and potential toxicant, the effects of Zn fixation in soil are of practical significance. Soil samples from four field sites amended with ZnSO4 were used to investigate ageing of soluble Zn under field conditions over a 2-year period. Lability of Zn measured using 65Zn radioisotope dilution showed a significant decrease over time and hence evidence of Zn fixation in three of the four soils. However, 0.01 M CaCl2 extractions and toxicity measurements using a genetically modified lux-marked bacterial biosensor did not indicate a decrease in soluble/bioavailable Zn over time. This was attributed to the strong regulatory effect of abiotic properties such as pH on these latter measurements. These results also showed that Zn ageing occurred immediately after Zn spiking, emphasising the need to incubate freshly spiked soils before ecotoxicity assessments. Ageing effects were detected in Zn-amended field soils using 65Zn isotopic dilution as a measure of lability, but not with either CaCl2 extractions or a lux-marked bacterial biosensor.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene 3: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in nitrogen and under sealed conditions

Commercial dodecylbenzene cable fluid was aged at temperatures of 105 and 135 degrees C in dry oxygen-free nitrogen. In addition, selected samples were aged at 135 degrees C under sealed conditions where air was excluded from the headspace above the oil. A variety of analytical techniques, such as ultra-violet visible and infra-red spectroscopy, acid number and water content measurements, were then used to characterize the aged oils. In addition, their electrical properties were assessed by dielectric spectroscopy. Compared with ageing in air, the ageing rate was reduced significantly and, as expected, no major oxidation peaks were detected in the infrared spectrometer. Significantly, very little absorbance at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected in samples aged with copper and, consequentially, no large increases in dielectric loss were recorded within the ageing times considered here. This study compliments previous investigations on cable fluid and 1-phenyldodecane aged in air and show that the same ageing indicators are valid in oils aged under conditions which more closely resemble those found in high voltage plant.