Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

Ensaios sobre a estrutura a termo da taxa de juros

Esta tese é composta de três artigos que analisam a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros usando diferentes bases de dados e modelos. O capítulo 1 propõe um modelo paramétrico de taxas de juros que permite a segmentação e choques locais na estrutura a termo. Adotando dados do tesouro americano, duas versões desse modelo segmentado são implementadas. Baseado em uma sequência de 142 experimentos de previsão, os modelos propostos são comparados à benchmarks e concluí-se que eles performam melhor nos resultados das previsões fora da amostra, especialmente para as maturidades curtas e para o horizonte de previsão de 12 meses. O capítulo 2 acrescenta restrições de não arbitragem ao estimar um modelo polinomial gaussiano dinâmico de estrutura a termo para o mercado de taxas de juros brasileiro. Esse artigo propõe uma importante aproximação para a série temporal dos fatores de risco da estrutura a termo, que permite a extração do prêmio de risco das taxas de juros sem a necessidade de otimização de um modelo dinâmico completo. Essa metodologia tem a vantagem de ser facilmente implementada e obtém uma boa aproximação para o prêmio de risco da estrutura a termo, que pode ser usada em diferentes aplicações. O capítulo 3 modela a dinâmica conjunta das taxas nominais e reais usando um modelo afim de não arbitagem com variáveis macroeconômicas para a estrutura a termo, afim de decompor a diferença entre as taxas nominais e reais em prêmio de risco de inflação e expectativa de inflação no mercado americano. Uma versão sem variáveis macroeconômicas e uma versão com essas variáveis são implementadas e os prêmios de risco de inflação obtidos são pequenos e estáveis no período analisado, porém possuem diferenças na comparação dos dois modelos analisados.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Importância do gerenciamento com base em dados estudo de caso : farmácias de manipulação do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Last century Six Sigma Strategy has been the focus of study for many scientists, between the discoveries we have the importance of data process for the free of error product manufactory. So, this work focuses on data quality importance in an enterprise. For this, a descriptive-exploratory study of seventeen pharmacies of manipulations from Rio Grande do Norte was undertaken with the objective to be able to create a base structure model to classify enterprises according to their data bases. Therefore, statistical methods such as cluster and discriminant analyses were used applied to a questionnaire built for this specific study. Data collection identified four group showing strong and weak characteristics for each group and that are differentiated from each other

Sistema de gestão ambiental sob a perspectiva da resource-based view: um estudo de caso no verdegreen Hotel - João Pessoa/PB

The pressure for a new pattern of sustainable development began to require of modern organizations the conciliation between competitiveness and a environmental protection. In this sense, a tool that acts in the implementation of structured strategies is the Environmental Management System (EMS), which focuses on improving environmental performance. This improvement, in turn, can generate to the organizations many benefits , among which, obtaining competitive advantages, susceptible of measurement from different perspectives. One of these is the application of VRIO model, reasoned by the Resource-Based View (RBV), which considers that differences between companies occurs due to differences between its internal resources and capabilities. However, although was been found some studies in the literature that evaluate the competitive potential of certain organizations , such assessments are not performed on specific objects, like the SEM s. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the resources and capabilities (environmental strategies) adopted by the SGA of the Verdegreen Hotel, identifying which of these have the potential to generate competitive advantage. For this, this exploratory-descriptive character study and delineated as field research and case study was used as data collection tools: a literature survey, semi-structured interviews, document research and participant observation. The interpretation of results and consolidation of information were conducted from a qualitative approach, using two techniques of data analysis, namely: content analysis and analysis through VRIO model. The results show that the hotel is quite structured in relation to their EMS, as well as reaching related to improving the management of environmental factors, strengthening the image and gains in competitiveness benefits. On the other hand, the main difficulties for the implementation of the system are related to employees and suppliers. With regard to environmental strategies adopted, of the 25 strategies identified, 10 showed the potential to generate competitive advantage

Estabilidade e robustez de um controlador adaptativo indireto por um modelo de referência e estrutura variável

In this thesis, it is developed the robustness and stability analysis of a variable structure model reference adaptive controller considering the presence of disturbances and unmodeled dynamics. The controller is applied to uncertain, monovariable, linear time-invariant plants with relative degree one, and its development is based on the indirect adaptive control. In the direct approach, well known in the literature, the switching laws are designed for the controller parameters. In the indirect one, they are designed for the plant parameters and, thus, the selection of the relays upper bounds becomes more intuitive, whereas they are related to physical parameters, which present uncertainties that can be known easier, such as resistances, capacitances, inertia moments and friction coefficients. Two versions for the controller algorithm with the stability analysis are presented. The global asymptotic stability with respect to a compact set is guaranteed for both cases. Simulation results under adverse operation conditions in order to verify the theoretical results and to show the performance and robustness of the proposed controller are showed. Moreover, for practical purposes, some simplifications on the original algorithm are developed

Controle adaptativo robusto para um modelo desacoplado de um robô móvel

This thesis presents a new structure of robust adaptive controller applied to mobile robots (surface mobile robot) with nonholonomic constraints. It acts in the dynamics and kinematics of the robot, and it is split in two distinct parts. The first part controls the robot dynamics, using variable structure model reference adaptive controllers. The second part controls the robot kinematics, using a position controller, whose objective is to make the robot to reach any point in the cartesian plan. The kinematic controller is based only on information about the robot configuration. A decoupling method is adopted to transform the linear model of the mobile robot, a multiple-input multiple-output system, into two decoupled single-input single-output systems, thus reducing the complexity of designing the controller for the mobile robot. After that, a variable structure model reference adaptive controller is applied to each one of the resulting systems. One of such controllers will be responsible for the robot position and the other for the leading angle, using reference signals generated by the position controller. To validate the proposed structure, some simulated and experimental results using differential drive mobile robots of a robot soccer kit are presented. The simulator uses the main characteristics of real physical system as noise and non-linearities such as deadzone and saturation. The experimental results were obtained through an C++ program applied to the robot soccer kit of Microrobot team at the LACI/UFRN. The simulated and experimental results are presented and discussed at the end of the text

Uma abordagem indireta para o Controlador em Modo Dual Adaptativo Robusto

In this work is proposed an indirect approach to the DualMode Adaptive Robust Controller (DMARC), combining the typicals transient and robustness properties of Variable Structure Systems, more specifically of Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller (VS-MRAC), with a smooth control signal in steady-state, typical of conventional Adaptive Controllers, as Model Reference Adaptive Controller (MRAC). The goal is to provide a more intuitive controller design, based on physical plant parameters, as resistances, inertia moments, capacitances, etc. Furthermore, with the objective to follow the evolutionary line of direct controllers, it will be proposed an indirect version for the Binary Model Reference Adaptive Controller (B-MRAC), that was the first controller attemptting to act as MRAC as well as VS-MRAC, depending on a pre-defined fixed parameter

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The small x behavior of the gluon strucutre function from total cross-sections

Within a QCD-based eikonal model with a dynamical infrared gluon mass scale we discuss how the small x behavior of the gluon distribution function at moderate Q(2) is directly related to the rise of total hadronic cross-sections. In this model the rise of total cross-sections is driven by gluon-gluon semihard scattering processes, where the behavior of the small x gluon distribtuion function exhibits the power law xg(x, Q(2)) = h(Q(2))x(-epsilon). Assuming that the Q(2) scale is proportional to the dynamical gluon mass one, we show that the values of h(Q(2)) obtained in this model are compatible with an earlier result based on a specific nonperturbative Pomeron model. We discuss the implications of this picture for the behavior of input valence-like gluon distributions at low resolution scales.

Photogrammetric refinement of laser-based building roof contours

In this paper a photogrammetric method is proposed for refining 3D building roof contours extracted from airborne laser scanning data. It is assumed that laser-derived planar faces of roofs are potentially accurate, while laser-derived building roof contours are not well defined. First, polygons representing building roof contours are extracted from a high-resolution aerial image. In the sequence, straight-line segments delimitating each building roof polygon are projected onto the corresponding laser-derived roof planes by using a new line-based photogrammetric model. Finally, refined 3D building roof contours are reconstructed by connecting every pair of photogrammetrically- projected adjacent straight lines. The obtained results showed that the proposed approach worked properly, meaning that the integration of image data and laser scanning data allows better results to be obtained, when compared to the results generated by using only laser scanning data. © 2013 IEEE.

Informação polarimétrica PALSAR/ALOS aplicada à discriminação de espécies e estimação de parâmetros morfológicos de macrófitas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Implementação e testes de campo de um ESP digital

Neste trabalho é apresentado o desenvolvimento e os resultados da implementação e testes em campo de um estabilizador de sistema de potência (ESP) projetado com técnica de controle digital para fins de amortecimento de modos de oscilação eletromecânica observáveis em sinais de potência elétrica medido em uma unidade hidro-geradora, de 350 MVA da Usina Hidrelétrica de Tucuruí. É apresentada e aplicada a metodologia de identificação de modelos paramétricos lineares do tipo auto regressivo com entradas exógenas (ARX), para estimação de modelos com capacidade de capturar a informação relevante (amortecimento e freqüência natural) dos modos eletromecânicos dominantes do sistema. De posse do modelo paramétrico ARX, é efetuada então a síntese da lei de controle digital amortecedor para o ESP, através da técnica de deslocamento radial dos pólos da função de transferência de malha fechada. Para a síntese da lei de controle digital, utilizou-se uma estrutura canônica do tipo RST. Para os testes de campo, a lei de controle amortecedor do ESP digital foi codificada em linguagem C e embarcada em um protótipo cujo hardware é baseado em microcontrolador modelo DSPIC 30F3014, o qual incorpora um grande número de periféricos para aquisição e comunicação de dados. Para avaliar o desempenho do ESP digital desenvolvido, testes experimentais foram realizados em uma unidade geradora de 350 MVA da casa de força número 1, da UHE de Tucuruí. O estabilizador desenvolvido atua através da modulação da referência de tensão do regulador automático de tensão da respectiva unidade geradora, de acordo com as oscilações observadas através da medida de potência elétrica no estator do gerador. Os resultados de testes de campo mostraram um excelente desempenho do ESP digital no amortecimento de um modo eletromecânico, de freqüência natural de aproximadamente 1,7 Hz, observado nos teste de campo realizado.

Extração de contornos de telhado de edifícios no espaço-objeto baseada em snakes e programação dinâmica a partir de TIN/laser e imagens aéreas de alta resolução

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The 3D structure and function of digestive cathepsin L-like proteinases of Tenebrio molitor larval midgut

Cathepsin L-like proteinases (CAL) are major digestive proteinases in the beetle Tenebrio molitor. Procathepsin Ls 2 (pCAL2) and 3 (pCAL3) were expressed as recombinant proteins in Escherichia coil, purified and activated under acidic conditions. Immunoblot analyses of different T. molitor larval tissues demonstrated that a polyclonal antibody to pCAL3 recognized pCAL3 and cathepsin L 3 (CAD) only in the anterior two-thirds of midgut tissue and midgut luminal contents of T. molitor larvae. Furthermore, immunocytolocalization data indicated that pCAL3 occurs in secretory vesicles and microvilli in anterior midgut Therefore CAL3, like cathepsin L 2 (CAL2), is a digestive enzyme secreted by T. molitor anterior midgut CAD hydrolyses Z-FR-MCA and Z-RR-MCA (typical cathepsin substrates), whereas CAL2 hydrolyses only Z-FR-MCA. Active site mutants (pCAL2C25S and pCAL3C265) were constructed by replacing the catalytic cysteine with serine to prevent autocatalytic processing. Recombinant pCAL2 and pCAL3 mutants (pCAL2C25S and pCAL3C26S) were prepared, crystallized and their 3D structures determined at 1.85 and 2.1 angstrom, respectively. While the overall structure of these enzymes is similar to other members of the papain superfamily, structural differences in the S2 subsite explain their substrate specificities. The data also supported models for CAL trafficking to lysosomes and to secretory vesicles to be discharged into midgut contents. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.