Choosing among techniques for quantifying single-case intervention effectiveness

If single case experimental designs are to be used to establish guidelines for evidence-based interventions in clinical and educational settings, numerical values that reflect treatment effect sizes are required. The present study compares four recently developed procedures for quantifying the magnitude of intervention effect using data with known characteristics. Monte Carlo methods were used to generate AB designs data with potential confounding variables (serial dependence, linear and curvilinear trend, and heteroscedasticity between phases) and two types of treatment effect (level and slope change). The results suggest that data features are important for choosing the appropriate procedure and, thus, inspecting the graphed data visually is a necessary initial stage. In the presence of serial dependence or a change in data variability, the Nonoverlap of All Pairs (NAP) and the Slope and Level Change (SLC) were the only techniques of the four examined that performed adequately. Introducing a data correction step in NAP renders it unaffected by linear trend, as is also the case for the Percentage of Nonoverlapping Corrected Data and SLC. The performance of these techniques indicates that professionals" judgments concerning treatment effectiveness can be readily complemented by both visual and statistical analyses. A flowchart to guide selection of techniques according to the data characteristics identified by visual inspection is provided.

Fate of clinical research studies after ethical approval--follow-up of study protocols until publication.

BACKGROUND: Many clinical studies are ultimately not fully published in peer-reviewed journals. Underreporting of clinical research is wasteful and can result in biased estimates of treatment effect or harm, leading to recommendations that are inappropriate or even dangerous. METHODS: We assembled a cohort of clinical studies approved 2000-2002 by the Research Ethics Committee of the University of Freiburg, Germany. Published full articles were searched in electronic databases and investigators contacted. Data on study characteristics were extracted from protocols and corresponding publications. We characterized the cohort, quantified its publication outcome and compared protocols and publications for selected aspects. RESULTS: Of 917 approved studies, 807 were started and 110 were not, either locally or as a whole. Of the started studies, 576 (71%) were completed according to protocol, 128 (16%) discontinued and 42 (5%) are still ongoing; for 61 (8%) there was no information about their course. We identified 782 full publications corresponding to 419 of the 807 initiated studies; the publication proportion was 52% (95% CI: 0.48-0.55). Study design was not significantly associated with subsequent publication. Multicentre status, international collaboration, large sample size and commercial or non-commercial funding were positively associated with subsequent publication. Commercial funding was mentioned in 203 (48%) protocols and in 205 (49%) of the publications. In most published studies (339; 81%) this information corresponded between protocol and publication. Most studies were published in English (367; 88%); some in German (25; 6%) or both languages (27; 6%). The local investigators were listed as (co-)authors in the publications corresponding to 259 (62%) studies. CONCLUSION: Half of the clinical research conducted at a large German university medical centre remains unpublished; future research is built on an incomplete database. Research resources are likely wasted as neither health care professionals nor patients nor policy makers can use the results when making decisions.

Sporadic late-onset nemaline myopathy with MGUS: Long-term follow-up after melphalan and SCT.

OBJECTIVE: Sporadic late-onset nemaline myopathy (SLONM) is a rare, late-onset myopathy that progresses subacutely. If associated with a monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significance (MGUS), the outcome is unfavorable: the majority of these patients die within 1 to 5 years of respiratory failure. This study aims to qualitatively assess the long-term treatment effect of high-dose melphalan (HDM) followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (SCT) in a series of 8 patients with SLONM-MGUS. METHODS: We performed a retrospective case series study (n = 8) on the long-term (1-8 years) treatment effect of HDM followed by autologous SCT (HDM-SCT) on survival, muscle strength, and functional capacities. RESULTS: Seven patients showed a lasting moderate-good clinical response, 2 of them after the second HDM-SCT. All of them had a complete, a very good partial, or a partial hematologic response. One patient showed no clinical or hematologic response and died. CONCLUSIONS: This case series shows the positive effect of HDM-SCT in this rare disorder. Factors that may portend an unfavorable outcome are a long disease course before the hematologic treatment and a poor hematologic response. Age at onset, level and type of M protein (κ vs λ), and severity of muscle weakness were not associated with a specific outcome. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that for patients with SLONM-MGUS, HDM-SCT increases the probability of survival and functional improvement.

Medication incidents in primary care medicine: protocol of a study by the Swiss Federal Sentinel Reporting System.

BACKGROUND/RATIONALE: Patient safety is a major concern in healthcare systems worldwide. Although most safety research has been conducted in the inpatient setting, evidence indicates that medical errors and adverse events are a threat to patients in the primary care setting as well. Since information about the frequency and outcomes of safety incidents in primary care is required, the goals of this study are to describe the type, frequency, seasonal and regional distribution of medication incidents in primary care in Switzerland and to elucidate possible risk factors for medication incidents. Label="METHODS AND ANALYSIS" ="METHODS"/> <AbstractText STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We will conduct a prospective surveillance study to identify cases of medication incidents among primary care patients in Switzerland over the course of the year 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing drug treatment by 167 general practitioners or paediatricians reporting to the Swiss Federal Sentinel Reporting System. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Any erroneous event, as defined by the physician, related to the medication process and interfering with normal treatment course. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: Lack of treatment effect, adverse drug reactions or drug-drug or drug-disease interactions without detectable treatment error. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Medication incidents. RISK FACTORS: Age, gender, polymedication, morbidity, care dependency, hospitalisation. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Descriptive statistics to assess type, frequency, seasonal and regional distribution of medication incidents and logistic regression to assess their association with potential risk factors. Estimated sample size: 500 medication incidents. LIMITATIONS: We will take into account under-reporting and selective reporting among others as potential sources of bias or imprecision when interpreting the results. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No formal request was necessary because of fully anonymised data. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT0229537.

Chemotherapy and radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an update of the MAC-NPC meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A previous individual patient data meta-analysis by the Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharynx Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) collaborative group to assess the addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy showed that it improves overall survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This benefit was restricted to patients receiving concomitant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The aim of this study was to update the meta-analysis, include recent trials, and to analyse separately the benefit of concomitant plus adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Controlled Trials meta-register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and meeting proceedings to identify published or unpublished randomised trials assessing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma and obtained updated data for previously analysed studies. The primary endpoint of interest was overall survival. All trial results were combined and analysed using a fixed-effects model. The statistical analysis plan was pre-specified in a protocol. All data were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. FINDINGS: We analysed data from 19 trials and 4806 patients. Median follow-up was 7·7 years (IQR 6·2-11·9). We found that the addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy significantly improved overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·73-0·86, p<0·0001; absolute benefit at 5 years 6·3%, 95% CI 3·5-9·1). The interaction between treatment effect (benefit of chemotherapy) on overall survival and the timing of chemotherapy was significant (p=0·01) in favour of concomitant plus adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 0·65, 0·56-0·76) and concomitant without adjuvant chemotherapy (0·80, 0·70-0·93) but not adjuvant chemotherapy alone (0·87, 0·68-1·12) or induction chemotherapy alone (0·96, 0·80-1·16). The benefit of the addition of chemotherapy was consistent for all endpoints analysed (all p<0·0001): progression-free survival (HR 0·75, 95% CI 0·69-0·81), locoregional control (0·73, 0·64-0·83), distant control (0·67, 0·59-0·75), and cancer mortality (0·76, 0·69-0·84). INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm that the addition of concomitant chemotherapy to radiotherapy significantly improves survival in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis that examines the effect of concomitant chemotherapy with and without adjuvant chemotherapy as distinct groups. Further studies on the specific benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy after concomitant chemoradiotherapy are needed. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health (Programme d'actions intégrées de recherche VADS), Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, and Sanofi-Aventis.

Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis : rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients.

Main concepts : The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach defines quality of evidence as confidence in effect estimates; this conceptualization can readily be applied to bodies of evidence estimating the risk of future of events (that is, prognosis) in broadly defined populations In the field of prognosis, a body of observational evidence (including single arms of randomized controlled trials) begins as high quality evidence. The five domains GRADE considers in rating down confidence in estimates of treatment effect-that is, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias-as well as the GRADE criteria for rating up quality, also apply to estimates of the risk of future of events from a body of prognostic studies Applying these concepts to systematic reviews of prognostic studies provides a ful approach to determine confidence in estimates of overall prognosis in broad populations.

Effects of adult dysthyroidism on the morphology of hippocampal neurons.

This study investigates the effect of thyroid hormones on the morphology of hippocampal neurons in adult rats. Hypo- and hyperthyroidism were induced by adding 0.02% methimazole and 1% l-thyroxine, in drinking water from 40 days of age, respectively. When the rats were 89 days old their brains were removed and stained by a modified Golgi method and blood samples were collected in order to measure T4 serum levels. Neurons were selected and drawn using a camera lucida. Our results show that methimazole administration reduces the dendritic branching of the apical shafts of CA3 and CA1 pyramidal neurons mainly by increasing the distance to the first branch point in both types of neurons, and reducing branch points in the radius of 50 μm from the soma in CA1 neurons. Nevertheless, it was observed an increase of apical spine density in CA3 neurons from this group. Thyroxine reduces apical and basal tree of CA3 pyramidal neurons increasing the distance to the first branch point, reducing branch points in the radius of 50 μm from the soma and increases their apical and basal spine density. In CA1 field, thyroxine reduces the number of basal branch points. Both treatments seems to provoke alterations in the same direction reducing the dendritic branching and increasing spine density, although no significances appeared in some of the parameters analyzed. The effects are more evident in thyroxine than methimazole group; and in CA3 neurons than in CA1 neurons. In discussion it is pointed that the increase of spine density could be a mechanism to compensate the functionality reduction that can be provoke by the treatment effect on dendritic branching.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

Randomization tests for ABAB designs: Comparing-data-division-specific and common distributions

Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate data for ABAB designs of different lengths. The points of change in phase are randomly determined before gathering behaviour measurements, which allows the use of a randomization test as an analytic technique. Data simulation and analysis can be based either on data-division-specific or on common distributions. Following one method or another affects the results obtained after the randomization test has been applied. Therefore, the goal of the study was to examine these effects in more detail. The discrepancies in these approaches are obvious when data with zero treatment effect are considered and such approaches have implications for statistical power studies. Data-division-specific distributions provide more detailed information about the performance of the statistical technique.

Segmental Durations of Speech

This dissertation considers the segmental durations of speech from the viewpoint of speech technology, especially speech synthesis. The idea is that better models of segmental durations lead to higher naturalness and better intelligibility. These features are the key factors for better usability and generality of synthesized speech technology. Even though the studies are based on a Finnish corpus the approaches apply to all other languages as well. This is possibly due to the fact that most of the studies included in this dissertation are about universal effects taking place on utterance boundaries. Also the methods invented and used here are suitable for any other study of another language. This study is based on two corpora of news reading speech and sentences read aloud. The other corpus is read aloud by a 39-year-old male, whilst the other consists of several speakers in various situations. The use of two corpora is twofold: it involves a comparison of the corpora and a broader view on the matters of interest. The dissertation begins with an overview to the phonemes and the quantity system in the Finnish language. Especially, we are covering the intrinsic durations of phonemes and phoneme categories, as well as the difference of duration between short and long phonemes. The phoneme categories are presented to facilitate the problem of variability of speech segments. In this dissertation we cover the boundary-adjacent effects on segmental durations. In initial positions of utterances we find that there seems to be initial shortening in Finnish, but the result depends on the level of detail and on the individual phoneme. On the phoneme level we find that the shortening or lengthening only affects the very first ones at the beginning of an utterance. However, on average, the effect seems to shorten the whole first word on the word level. We establish the effect of final lengthening in Finnish. The effect in Finnish has been an open question for a long time, whilst Finnish has been the last missing piece for it to be a universal phenomenon. Final lengthening is studied from various angles and it is also shown that it is not a mere effect of prominence or an effect of speech corpus with high inter- and intra-speaker variation. The effect of final lengthening seems to extend from the final to the penultimate word. On a phoneme level it reaches a much wider area than the initial effect. We also present a normalization method suitable for corpus studies on segmental durations. The method uses an utterance-level normalization approach to capture the pattern of segmental durations within each utterance. This prevents the impact of various problematic variations within the corpora. The normalization is used in a study on final lengthening to show that the results on the effect are not caused by variation in the material. The dissertation shows an implementation and prowess of speech synthesis on a mobile platform. We find that the rule-based method of speech synthesis is a real-time software solution, but the signal generation process slows down the system beyond real time. Future aspects of speech synthesis on limited platforms are discussed. The dissertation considers ethical issues on the development of speech technology. The main focus is on the development of speech synthesis with high naturalness, but the problems and solutions are applicable to any other speech technology approaches.

Ação trófica de aditivos fitogênicos, glutamina e ácido glutâmico sobre a Bursa de Fabrícius e intestino delgado de frangos de corte

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of phytogenic additives and glutamine plus glutamic acid, associated or not, on histomorphometry of bursa of Fabricius and small intestine, oocyst count and lesion scores, and carbon turnover of duodenal mucosa of broiler chickens infected with Eimeria acervulina. A total of 450 male broiler chickens was distributed into a completely randomized design with six treatments and three replications. Treatments consisted of control diet (CD); CD + coccidiosis vaccine; CD + antibiotic performance enhancers and anticoccidial (APE/AC); CD + glutamine and glutamic acid (Gln/Glu); CD + phytogenic additives (PA); CD + Gln/Glu + PA. Birds on treatment CD + vaccine were vaccinated via drinking water at three days of age against coccidiosis. At 16 days of age all birds of all treatments were inoculated orally and individually with 500,000 oocysts of Eimeria acervulina. There was no treatment effect on lesion score in the intestinal epithelium of birds. The smaller number of excreted oocysts was observed in groups of birds fed diets containing APE/AC and PA. Were observed better results of villus height and crypt depth for duodenum and ileum of birds of treatments containing Gln/Glu at 7 days of age, and Gln/Glu and PA at 21 days of age. Higher percentage of cortical area from bursa follicles was observed in birds fed diets supplemented with Gln/Glu and PA at 7, 14 and 21 days of age. Increased turnover of intestinal mucosa was observed in treatments containing Gln/Glu, indicating acceleration in development and regeneration of damaged tissue. Glutamine plus glutamic acid and phytogenic additives can provide improvements to structure, and thus to intestinal function, as well as to better immune response against the infectious challenges. Phytogenic additives can be used for coccidiosis control of broiler chickens where the use of antibiotic performance enhancers and anticoccidials is prohibited.

Influence of levels and forms of selenium associated with levels of vitamins C and E on the performance, yield and composition of tilapia fillet

The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of vitamin C (VC), vitamin E (VE), and two selenium sources on the performance, yield, and composition of Nile tilapia fillet. The experiment was conducted in a completely randomized design consisting of six treatments with the addition of 100, 200, and 400 mg kg-1 VC and VE and 0.1, 0.2, and 0.4 of two sources of selenium. Each treatment had five replicates of 30 fish each. The diet with 200 mg kg-1 VC and VE + 0.2 mg.k-1 organic selenium resulted in weight gain, length gain, and feed conversion ratio similar to that of the treatment with 400 mg kg-1 VC and VE + 0.4 mg kg-1 organic or inorganic selenium. The addition of organic selenium to the diet improved the weight gain and feed conversion ratio in comparison with the addition of inorganic selenium. The diet with 0.2 mg kg-1 organic selenium showed glutathione peroxidase level equal to the diet with 0.4 mg kg-1 of inorganic selenium. Carcass and fillet yields were not affected by treatments; however, there was treatment effect on the fillet's chemical composition.

GLS Detrending, Efficient Unit Root Tests and Structural Change

We extend the class of M-tests for a unit root analyzed by Perron and Ng (1996) and Ng and Perron (1997) to the case where a change in the trend function is allowed to occur at an unknown time. These tests M(GLS) adopt the GLS detrending approach of Dufour and King (1991) and Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) (ERS). Following Perron (1989), we consider two models : one allowing for a change in slope and the other for both a change in intercept and slope. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests as well as that of the feasible point optimal tests PT(GLS) suggested by ERS. The asymptotic critical values of the tests are tabulated. Also, we compute the non-centrality parameter used for the local GLS detrending that permits the tests to have 50% asymptotic power at that value. We show that the M(GLS) and PT(GLS) tests have an asymptotic power function close to the power envelope. An extensive simulation study analyzes the size and power in finite samples under various methods to select the truncation lag for the autoregressive spectral density estimator. An empirical application is also provided.

Simulation-Based Finite-and Large-sample Inference Methods in Multivariate Regressions and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

In the context of multivariate regression (MLR) and seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) models, it is well known that commonly employed asymptotic test criteria are seriously biased towards overrejection. in this paper, we propose finite-and large-sample likelihood-based test procedures for possibly non-linear hypotheses on the coefficients of MLR and SURE systems.

The FCLT with Dependent Errors: an Helicopter Tour of the Quality of the Approximation

This note investigates the adequacy of the finite-sample approximation provided by the Functional Central Limit Theorem (FCLT) when the errors are allowed to be dependent. We compare the distribution of the scaled partial sums of some data with the distribution of the Wiener process to which it converges. Our setup is purposely very simple in that it considers data generated from an ARMA(1,1) process. Yet, this is sufficient to bring out interesting conclusions about the particular elements which cause the approximations to be inadequate in even quite large sample sizes.