Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM

Secular trends of daily precipitation characteristics are considered in the transient climate change experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 for 1900-2099. The climate forcing is due to increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mean daily precipitation, precipitation intensity, probability of wet days and parameters of the gamma distribution are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the changes of heavy precipitation, Analysis of the annual mean precipitation trends for 1900-1999 revealed general agreement with observations with significant positive trends in mean precipitation over continental areas. In the 2000-2099 period precipitation trend patterns followed the tendency obtained for 1900-1999 but with significantly increased magnitudes. Unlike the annual mean precipitation trends for which negative values were found for some continental areas, the mean precipitation intensity and scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution increased over all land territories . Negative trends in the number of wet days were found over most of the land areas except high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The shape parameter of the gamma distribution in general revealed a slight negative trend in the areas of the precipitation increase. Investigation of daily precipitation revealed an unproportional increase of heavy precipitation events for the land areas including local maxima in Europe and the eastern United States.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Social work and spirituality in a secular society

• Summary: In an increasingly secular era which finds only a small minority of the population regularly participating in organized religion, there is emerging interest in how spirituality can be incorporated into social work practice. This article proposes one way in which this might occur in `deliberately secular' nations such as Australia.

• Findings: A framework in which spirituality is considered to be an aspect of lived experience is proposed. Dimensions of life which can be incorporated into such a framework include life rituals, creativity, social action, and sense of place.

• Applications : Conceptualizing spirituality in a way which does not use specifically religious language or concepts, may enable discussion of spiritual issues to be incorporated into social work practice when either practitioners or service users have or no religious background or affiliation or no shared religious background.

Does the prescriptive lifestyle of Seventh-Day Adventists provide 'immunity' from the secular effects of changes in BMI?

Objective: To examine the effect of Seventh-day Adventist (SDA) membership on ‘immunity’ to the secular effects of changes in BMI.

Design: Three independent, cross-sectional, screening surveys conducted by Sydney Adventist Hospital in 1976, 1986 and 1988 and a survey conducted among residents of Melbourne in 2006.

Subjects: Two hundred and fifty-two SDA and 464 non-SDA in 1976; 166 SDA and 291 non-SDA in 1986; 120 SDA and 300-non SDA in 1988; and 251 SDA and 294 non-SDA in 2006.

Measurements: Height and weight measured by hospital staff in 1976, 1986 and 1988; self-reported by respondents in 2006.

Results: The mean BMI of non-SDA men increased between 1986 and 2006 (P < 0·001) but did not change for SDA men or non-SDA women. Despite small increases in SDA women’s mean BMI (P = 0·030) between 1988 and 2006, this was no different to that of SDA men and non-SDA women in 2006. The diet and eating patterns of SDA men and women were more ‘prudent’ than those of non-SDA men and women, including more fruit, vegetables, grains, nuts and legumes, and less alcohol, meat, sweetened drinks and coffee. Many of these factors were found to be predictors of lower BMI.

Conclusion: The ‘prudent’ dietary and lifestyle prescriptions of SDA men appear to have ‘immunised’ them to the secular effects of changes that occurred among non-SDA men’s BMI. The dietary and lifestyle trends of SDA women did not reflect the increase in their BMI observed in 2006.

Sacred rules, secular revelations : the conceptions of rights in pre-modern Europe

This paper is an attempt to reflect on the methodological approaches that I bring to ‘reading law’ in my current project on understandings of individual rights in the legal and theological texts of the twelfth- and early thirteenth-century Middle Ages, entitled ‘Sacred Rules, Secular Revelations: The Conceptions of Rights in Pre-Modern Europe’

Advancing Australian 'shared security' : secular-religious peacebuilding networks

The role of religious leaders in promoting social cohesion and ‘shared security’ is increasingly being examined by scholars, as is the growing multifaith movement. The VIIIth World Assembly of Religions for Peace first proposed the notion of ‘shared security’ and the importance of religious leaders’ role in advancing such a concept in Kyoto 2006. A recent study, Managing the Impact of Global Crisis Events on Community Relations in Multicultural Australia (Bouma et al. 2007) has documented the impacts of international crisis events and discourses of exclusion on religiously diverse communities in Australia, in particular rising Islamophobia, migrantophobia and attacks on multiculturalism. Religious communities have been far from passive in their responses to the impact of these events initiating dialogue and educational activities to dispel negative stereotypes and attitudes. State actors, including police, have prioritized engagement with religious leaders resulting in a rise of state supported multifaith and secular-religious peacebuilding activities. This paper argues that, in response to global risks of terror and exclusion, secular-religious networks including religious leaders, state actors, educators and the media have the potential to advance ‘shared security’ in multifaith societies, by drawing on Australian experiences documented in the Global Crisis Events study.