Estimation of Convective Extreme Events over Germany based on Large Scale Parameters

Strong convective events can produce extreme precipitation, hail, lightning or gusts, potentially inducing severe socio-economic impacts. These events have a relatively small spatial extension and, in most cases, a short lifetime. In this study, a model is developed for estimating convective extreme events based on large scale conditions. It is shown that strong convective events can be characterized by a Weibull distribution of radar-based rainfall with a low shape and high scale parameter value. A radius of 90km around a station reporting a convective situation turned out to be suitable. A methodology is developed to estimate the Weibull parameters and thus the occurrence probability of convective events from large scale atmospheric instability and enhanced near-surface humidity, which are usually found on a larger scale than the convective event itself. Here, the probability for the occurrence of extreme convective events is estimated from the KO-index indicating the stability, and relative humidity at 1000hPa. Both variables are computed from ERA-Interim reanalysis. In a first version of the methodology, these two variables are applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution and to estimate the occurrence of a convective event. The developed method shows significant skill in estimating the occurrence of convective events as observed at synoptic stations, lightning measurements, and severe weather reports. In order to take frontal influences into account, a scheme for the detection of atmospheric fronts is implemented. While generally higher instability is found in the vicinity of fronts, the skill of this approach is largely unchanged. Additional improvements were achieved by a bias-correction and the use of ERA-Interim precipitation. The resulting estimation method is applied to the ERA-Interim period (1979-2014) to establish a ranking of estimated convective extreme events. Two strong estimated events that reveal a frontal influence are analysed in detail. As a second application, the method is applied to GCM-based decadal predictions in the period 1979-2014, which were initialized every year. It is shown that decadal predictive skill for convective event frequencies over Germany is found for the first 3-4 years after the initialization.

Toward an understanding of the atmospheric forcing uncertainties in the Mediterranean Sea

The thesis has extensively investigated for the first time the statistical distributions of atmospheric surface variables and heat fluxes for the Mediterranean Sea. After retrieving a 30-year atmospheric analysis dataset, we have captured the spatial patterns of the probability distribution of the relevant atmospheric variables for ocean atmospheric forcing: wind components (U,V), wind amplitude, air temperature (T2M), dewpoint temperature (D2M) and mean sea-level pressure (MSL-P). The study reveals that a two-parameter PDF is not a good fit for T2M, D2M, MSL-P and wind components (U,V) and a three parameter skew-normal PDF is better suited. Such distribution captures properly the data asymmetric tails (skewness). After removing the large seasonal cycle, we show the quality of the fit and the geographic structure of the PDF parameters. It is found that the PDF parameters vary between different regions, in particular the shape (connected to the asymmetric tails) and the scale (connected to the spread of the distribution) parameters cluster around two or more values, probably connected to the different dynamics that produces the surface atmospheric fields in the Mediterranean basin. Moreover, using the atmospheric variables, we have computed the air-sea heat fluxes for a 20-years period and estimated the net heat budget over the Mediterranean Sea. Interestingly, the higher resolution analysis dataset provides a negative heat budget of –3 W/m2 which is within the acceptable range for the Mediterranean Sea heat budget closure. The lower resolution atmospheric reanalysis dataset(ERA5) does not satisfy the heat budget closure problem pointing out that a minimal resolution of the atmospheric forcing is crucial for the Mediterranean Sea dynamics. The PDF framework developed in this thesis will be the basis for a future ensemble forecasting system that will use the statistical distributions to create perturbations of the atmospheric ocean forcing.

Combined Analysis Of νμ Disappearance And νμ→νe Appearance In Minos Using Accelerator And Atmospheric Neutrinos.

We report on a new analysis of neutrino oscillations in MINOS using the complete set of accelerator and atmospheric data. The analysis combines the ν(μ) disappearance and ν(e) appearance data using the three-flavor formalism. We measure |Δm(32)(2)| = [2.28-2.46] × 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and sin(2)θ(23) = 0.35-0.65 (90% C.L.) in the normal hierarchy, and |Δm(32)(2)| = [2.32-2.53] × 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and sin(2)θ(23) = 0.34-0.67 (90% C.L.) in the inverted hierarchy. The data also constrain δ(CP), the θ(23} octant degeneracy and the mass hierarchy; we disfavor 36% (11%) of this three-parameter space at 68% (90%) C.L.

Understanding Red Blood Cell Parameters In The Context Of The Frailty Phenotype: Interpretations Of The Fibra (frailty In Brazilian Seniors) Study.

Frailty and anemia in the elderly appear to share a common pathophysiology associated with chronic inflammatory processes. This study uses an analytical, cross-sectional, population-based methodology to investigate the probable relationships between frailty, red blood cell parameters and inflammatory markers in 255 community-dwelling elders aged 65 years or older. The frailty phenotype was assessed by non-intentional weight loss, fatigue, low grip strength, low energy expenditure and reduced gait speed. Blood sample analyses were performed to determine hemoglobin level, hematocrit and reticulocyte count, as well as the inflammatory variables IL-6, IL-1ra and hsCRP. In the first multivariate analysis (model I), considering only the erythroid parameters, Hb concentration was a significant variable for both general frailty status and weight loss: a 1.0g/dL drop in serum Hb concentration represented a 2.02-fold increase (CI 1.12-3.63) in an individual's chance of being frail. In the second analysis (model II), which also included inflammatory cytokine levels, hsCRP was independently selected as a significant variable. Each additional year of age represented a 1.21-fold increase in the chance of being frail, and each 1-unit increase in serum hsCRP represented a 3.64-fold increase in the chance of having the frailty phenotype. In model II reticulocyte counts were associated with weight loss and reduced metabolic expenditure criteria. Our findings suggest that reduced Hb concentration, reduced RetAbs count and elevated serum hsCRP levels should be considered components of frailty, which in turn is correlated with sarcopenia, as evidenced by weight loss.

Micronutrient And Physiologic Parameters Before And 6 Months After Rygb.

Bariatric surgery is considered an effective method for sustained weight loss, but may cause various nutritional complications. The aim of this study was to evaluate the nutritional status of minerals and vitamins, food consumption, and to monitor physiologic parameters in patients with obesity before and 6 months after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB). Thirty-six patients who had undergone RYGB were prospectively evaluated before and 6 months after surgery. At each phase their weight, height, body mass index (BMI), Electro Sensor Complex (ES Complex) data, food consumption, and total protein serum levels, albumin, prealbumin, parathyroid hormone (PTH), zinc (Zn), B12 vitamin (VitB12), iron (Fe), ferritin, copper (Cu), ionic calcium (CaI), magnesium (Mg), and folic acid were assessed. The mean weight loss from baseline to 6 months after surgery was 35.34±4.82%. Markers of autonomic nervous system balance (P<.01), stiffness index (P<.01), standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN) (P<.01), and insulin resistance (P<.001) were also improved. With regard to the micronutrients measured, 34 patients demonstrated some kind of deficiency. There was a high percentage of Zn deficiency in both pre- (55.55%) and postoperative (61.11%) patients, and 33.33% of the patients were deficient in prealbumin postoperatively. The protein intake after 6 months of surgery was below the recommended intake (<70 g/d) for 88.88% of the patients. Laboratory analyses demonstrated an average decrease in total protein (P<.05), prealbumin (P = .002), and PTH (P = .008) between pre- and postsurgery, and a decrease in the percentage of deficiencies for Mg (P<.05), CaI (P<.05), and Fe (P = .021). Despite improvements in the autonomic nervous system balance, stiffness index markers and insulin resistance, we found a high prevalence of hypozincemia at 6 months post-RYGB. Furthermore, protein supplements were needed to maintain an adequate protein intake up to 6 months postsurgery.

Intrahippocampal Infusion Of Crotamine Isolated From Crotalus Durissus Terrificus Alters Plasma And Brain Biochemical Parameters.

Crotamine is one of the main constituents of the venom of the South American rattlesnake Crotalus durissus terrificus. Here we sought to investigate the inflammatory and toxicological effects induced by the intrahippocampal administration of crotamine isolated from Crotalus whole venom. Adult rats received an intrahippocampal infusion of crotamine or vehicle and were euthanized 24 h or 21 days after infusion. Plasma and brain tissue were collected for biochemical analysis. Complete blood count, creatinine, urea, glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (GOT), glutamic pyruvic transaminase (GPT), creatine-kinase (CK), creatine kinase-muscle B (CK-MB) and oxidative parameters (assessed by DNA damage and micronucleus frequency in leukocytes, lipid peroxidation and protein carbonyls in plasma and brain) were quantified. Unpaired and paired t-tests were used for comparisons between saline and crotamine groups, and within groups (24 h vs. 21 days), respectively. After 24 h crotamine infusion promoted an increase of urea, GOT, GPT, CK, and platelets values (p ≤ 0.01), while red blood cells, hematocrit and leukocytes values decreased (p ≤ 0.01). Additionally, 21 days after infusion crotamine group showed increased creatinine, leukocytes, TBARS (plasma and brain), carbonyl (plasma and brain) and micronucleus compared to the saline-group (p ≤ 0.01). Our findings show that crotamine infusion alter hematological parameters and cardiac markers, as well as oxidative parameters, not only in the brain, but also in the blood, indicating a systemic pro-inflammatory and toxicological activity. A further scientific attempt in terms of preserving the beneficial activity over toxicity is required.

Evaluation Of Red Cell And Reticulocyte Parameters As Indicative Of Iron Deficiency In Patients With Anemia Of Chronic Disease.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of mature red cell and reticulocyte parameters under three conditions: iron deficiency anemia, anemia of chronic disease, and anemia of chronic disease associated with absolute iron deficiency. Peripheral blood cells from 117 adult patients with anemia were classified according to iron status, and inflammatory activity, and the results of a hemoglobinopathy investigation as: iron deficiency anemia (n=42), anemia of chronic disease (n=28), anemia of chronic disease associated with iron deficiency anemia (n=22), and heterozygous β thalassemia (n=25). The percentage of microcytic red cells, hypochromic red cells, and levels of hemoglobin content in both reticulocytes and mature red cells were determined. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of the parameters in differentiating between the different types of anemia. There was no significant difference between the iron deficient group and anemia of chronic disease associated with absolute iron deficiency in respect to any parameter. The percentage of hypochromic red cells was the best parameter to discriminate anemia of chronic disease with and without absolute iron deficiency (area under curve=0.785; 95% confidence interval: 0.661-0.909, with sensitivity of 72.7%, and specificity of 70.4%; cut-off value 1.8%). The formula microcytic red cells minus hypochromic red cells was very accurate in differentiating iron deficiency anemia and heterozygous β thalassemia (area under curve=0.977; 95% confidence interval: 0.950-1.005; with sensitivity of 96.2%, and specificity of 92.7%; cut-off value 13.8). The indices related to red cells and reticulocytes have a moderate performance in identifying absolute iron deficiency in patients with anemia of chronic disease.

Relationship Between Aerobic And Anaerobic Parameters From 3-minute All-out Tethered Swimming And 400-m Maximal Front Crawl Effort.

The main aim of this investigation was to verify the relationship of the variables measured during a 3-minute all-out test with aerobic (i.e., peak oxygen uptake [(Equation is included in full-text article.)] and intensity corresponding to the lactate minimum [LMI]) and anaerobic parameters (i.e., anaerobic work) measured during a 400-m maximal performance. To measure force continually and to avoid the possible influences caused by turns, the 3-minute all-out effort was performed in tethered swimming. Thirty swimmers performed the following tests: (a) a 3-minute all-out tethered swimming test to determine the final force (equivalent to critical force: CF3-MIN) and the work performed above CF3-MIN (W'3-MIN), (b) a LMI protocol to determine the LMI during front crawl swimming, and (c) a 400-m maximal test to determine the (Equation is included in full-text article.)and total anaerobic contribution (WANA). Correlations between the variables were tested using the Pearson's correlation test (p ≤ 0.05). CF3-MIN (73.9 ± 13.2 N) presented a high correlation with the LMI (1.33 ± 0.08 m·s; p = 0.01) and (Equation is included in full-text article.)(4.5 ± 1.2 L·min; p = 0.01). However, the W'3-MIN (1,943.2 ± 719.2 N·s) was only moderately correlated with LMI (p = 0.02) and (Equation is included in full-text article.)(p = 0.01). In summary, CF3-MIN determined during the 3-minute all-out effort is associated with oxidative metabolism and can be used to estimate the aerobic capacity of swimmers. In contrast, the anaerobic component of this model (W'3-MIN) is not correlated with WANA.

Reference Values For High-density Lipoprotein Particle Size And Volume By Dynamic Light Scattering In A Brazilian Population Sample And Their Relationships With Metabolic Parameters.

Current data indicate that the size of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) may be considered an important marker for cardiovascular disease risk. We established reference values of mean HDL size and volume in an asymptomatic representative Brazilian population sample (n=590) and their associations with metabolic parameters by gender. Size and volume were determined in HDL isolated from plasma by polyethyleneglycol precipitation of apoB-containing lipoproteins and measured using the dynamic light scattering (DLS) technique. Although the gender and age distributions agreed with other studies, the mean HDL size reference value was slightly lower than in some other populations. Both HDL size and volume were influenced by gender and varied according to age. HDL size was associated with age and HDL-C (total population); non- white ethnicity and CETP inversely (females); HDL-C and PLTP mass (males). On the other hand, HDL volume was determined only by HDL-C (total population and in both genders) and by PLTP mass (males). The reference values for mean HDL size and volume using the DLS technique were established in an asymptomatic and representative Brazilian population sample, as well as their related metabolic factors. HDL-C was a major determinant of HDL size and volume, which were differently modulated in females and in males.

Efeitos da ingestão de cafeína Em exercício aeróbio de alta intensidade em hipóxia : parâmetros fisiológicos e perceptuais = Effects of caffeine ingestion on high-intensity aerobic exercise in hypoxia : physiological and perceptual parameters

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Monitoramento de parâmetros imunológicos em atletas adolescentes de basquetebol durante e após a temporada esportiva= : Monitoring of immunological parameters in adolescent basketball athletes during and after a sports season

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Análise transversal da estrutura óssea e parâmetros hematológicos em futebolistas profissionais = : Cross-sectional analysis of bone structure and hematological parameters in professional soccer players

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Comparison of periodontal parameters in individuals with syndromic craniosynostosis

Craniosynostosis syndromes are characterized by premature closure of one or more cranial sutures, associated with other malformations, the most frequent of which are the Crouzon and Apert syndromes. Few studies in the literature have addressed the oral health of these individuals. The purpose of this study was to compare the periodontal status of individuals with Apert, Crouzon, Pfeiffer and Saethre-Chotzen syndromes before toothbrushing and compare the efficiency of plaque removal before and after mechanical toothbrushing. The probing depth, plaque index (according to Löe and O'Leary), clinical attachment level, gingival index (according to Silness and Löe) and amount of keratinized mucosa were evaluated before toothbrushing, and the O'Leary plaque index was assessed before and immediately after toothbrushing, on the same day, in 27 individuals aged 11 to 36 years. There was statistically significant difference in the mean probing depth and clinical attachment level among regions (p=0.00; p=0.01, respectively). The gingival index did not reveal statistically significant differences. With regard to the plaque index, the left region exhibited higher plaque index values than the right and anterior regions. No significant results were found in the analysis of keratinized mucosa. Comparison of the O'Leary plaque index before and after toothbrushing revealed statistically significant difference for all syndromes except for the Pfeiffer syndrome (p<0.05). In conclusion, there was no difference in the periodontal status among individuals with syndromic craniosynostosis. The posterior region was more affected than the anterior region as to the presence of plaque, loss of insertion and probing depth. Individuals with Pfeiffer syndrome exhibited greater toothbrushing efficiency than individuals with the other craniosynostosis syndromes.

Relationship between the southern annular mode and southern hemisphere atmospheric systems

Seasonal relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the spatial distribution of the cyclone systems over Southern Hemisphere is investigated for the period 1980 to 1999. In addition, seasonal frontogenesis and rainfall distribution over South America and South Atlantic Ocean during different SAM phases were also analyzed. It is observed that during negative SAM phases the cyclone trajectories move northward when compared to the positive one, and in the South America and South Atlantic sector there is intense frontogenetic activity and positive anomaly precipitation over the Southeast of the South America. In general, SAM positive phase shows opposite signals.

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

The quantification of the available energy in the environment is important because it determines photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and, therefore, the final yield of crops. Instruments for measuring the energy balance are costly and indirect estimation alternatives are desirable. This study assessed the Deardorff's model performance during a cycle of a sugarcane crop in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in comparison to the aerodynamic method. This mechanistic model simulates the energy fluxes (sensible, latent heat and net radiation) at three levels (atmosphere, canopy and soil) using only air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed measured at a reference level above the canopy, crop leaf area index, and some pre-calibrated parameters (canopy albedo, soil emissivity, atmospheric transmissivity and hydrological characteristics of the soil). The analysis was made for different time scales, insolation conditions and seasons (spring, summer and autumn). Analyzing all data of 15 minute intervals, the model presented good performance for net radiation simulation in different insolations and seasons. The latent heat flux in the atmosphere and the sensible heat flux in the atmosphere did not present differences in comparison to data from the aerodynamic method during the autumn. The sensible heat flux in the soil was poorly simulated by the model due to the poor performance of the soil water balance method. The Deardorff's model improved in general the flux simulations in comparison to the aerodynamic method when more insolation was available in the environment.