Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979–2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall

This work presents a description of the 1979–2002 tropical Atlantic (TA) SST variability modes coupled to the anomalous West African (WA) rainfall during the monsoon season. The time-evolving SST patterns, with an impact on WA rainfall variability, are analyzed using a new methodology based on maximum covariance analysis. The enhanced Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset, which includes measures over the ocean, gives a complete picture of the interannual WA rainfall patterns for the Sahel dry period. The leading TA SST pattern, related to the Atlantic El Niño, is coupled to anomalous precipitation over the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, which corresponds to the second WA rainfall principal component. The thermodynamics and dynamics involved in the generation, development, and damping of this mode are studied and compared with previous works. The SST mode starts at the Angola/Benguela region and is caused by alongshore wind anomalies. It then propagates westward via Rossby waves and damps because of latent heat flux anomalies and Kelvin wave eastward propagation from an off-equatorial forcing. The second SST mode includes the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean, showing how the Mediterranean SST anomalies are those that are directly associated with the Sahelian rainfall. The global signature of the TA SST patterns is analyzed, adding new insights about the Pacific– Atlantic link in relation to WA rainfall during this period. Also, this global picture suggests that the Mediterranean SST anomalies are a fingerprint of large-scale forcing. This work updates the results given by other authors, whose studies are based on different datasets dating back to the 1950s, including both the wet and the dry Sahel periods.

Identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events over northwest Italy: the role of Atlantic moisture

An objective identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events for Northwest Italy is established using time series of annual precipitation maxima for 1938–2002 at over 200 stations. Rainfall annual maxima are considered for five reference durations (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h). In a first step, a day is classified as an extraordinary rainfall day when a regional threshold calculated on the basis of a two-components extreme value distribution is exceeded for at least one of the stations. Second, a clustering procedure taking into account the different rainfall durations is applied to the identified 163 events. Third, a division into six clusters is chosen using Ward's distance criteria. It is found that two of these clusters include the seven strongest events as quantified from a newly developed measure of intensity which combines rainfall intensities and spatial extension. Two other clusters include the weakest 72% historical events. The obtained clusters are analyzed in terms of typical synoptic characteristics. The two top clusters are characterized by strong and persistent upper air troughs inducing not only moisture advection from the North Atlantic into the Western Mediterranean but also strong northward flow towards the southern Alpine ranges. Humidity transports from the North Atlantic are less important for the weaker clusters. We conclude that moisture advection from the North Atlantic plays a relevant role in the magnitude of the extraordinary events over Northwest Italy.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

The impact of diurnal variability in sea surface temperature on the atlantic air-sea CO2 flux

The effect of diurnal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) on the air-sea flux of CO2 over the central Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea (60 S–60 N, 60 W–45 E) is evaluated for 2005–2006. We use high spatial resolution hourly satellite ocean skin temperature data to determine the diurnal warming (ΔSST). The CO2 flux is then computed using three different temperature fields – a foundation temperature (Tf, measured at a depth where there is no diurnal variation), Tf, plus the hourly ΔSST and Tf, plus the monthly average of the ΔSSTs. This is done in conjunction with a physically-based parameterisation for the gas transfer velocity (NOAA-COARE). The differences between the fluxes evaluated for these three different temperature fields quantify the effects of both diurnal warming and diurnal covariations. We find that including diurnal warming increases the CO2 flux out of this region of the Atlantic for 2005–2006 from 9.6 Tg C a−1 to 30.4 Tg C a−1 (hourly ΔSST) and 31.2 Tg C a−1 (monthly average of ΔSST measurements). Diurnal warming in this region, therefore, has a large impact on the annual net CO2 flux but diurnal covariations are negligible. However, in this region of the Atlantic the uptake and outgassing of CO2 is approximately balanced over the annual cycle, so although we find diurnal warming has a very large effect here, the Atlantic as a whole is a very strong carbon sink (e.g. −920 Tg C a−1 Takahashi et al., 2002) making this is a small contribution to the Atlantic carbon budget.

A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December–February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June–August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (24%) and JJA (22%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cy- clones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed.

On the relationship between decadal buoyancy anomalies and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Owing to the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean heat transport, AMOC variability is thought to play a role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales. This paper focuses on the potential role of the AMOC in climate variability on decadal time scales. Coupled and ocean-only general circulation models run in idealized geometries are utilized to study the relationships between decadal AMOC and buoyancy variability and determine whether the AMOC plays an active role in setting sea surface temperature on decadal time scales.DecadalAMOC variability is related to changes in the buoyancy field along the western boundary according to the thermal wind relation. Buoyancy anomalies originate in the upper ocean of the subpolar gyre and travel westward as baroclinic Rossby waves. When the buoyancy anomalies strike the western boundary, they are advected southward by the deep western boundary current, leading to latitudinally coherent AMOC variability. The AMOC is observed to respond passively to decadal buoyancy anomalies: although variability of the AMOC leads to meridional ocean heat transport anomalies, these transports are not responsible for creating the buoyancy anomalies in the subpolar gyre that drive AMOC variability.

Investigating hydrological regimes and processes in a set of catchments with temporary waters in Mediterranean Europe

Seven catchments of diverse size in Mediterranean Europe were investigated in order to understand the main aspects of their hydrological functioning. The methods included the analysis of daily and monthly precipitation, monthly potential evapotranspiration rates, flow duration curves, rainfall runoff relationships and catchment internal data for the smaller and more instrumented catchments. The results showed that the catchments were less dry than initially considered. Only one of them was really semi-arid throughout the year. All the remaining catchments showed wet seasons when precipitation exceeded potential evapotrans-piration, allowing aquifer recharge, wet runoff generation mechanisms and relevant baseflow contribution. Nevertheless, local infiltration excess (Hortonian) overland flow was inferred during summer storms in some catchments and urban overland flow in some others. The roles of karstic groundwater, human disturbance and low winter temperatures were identified as having an important impact on the hydrological regime in some of the catchments.

Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

Palisada flagellifera (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from the Canary Islands, Spain: a new record for the eastern Atlantic Ocean based on morphological and molecular evidence

Palisada flagellifera (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) is recorded for the first time in the eastern Atlantic Ocean off Tenerife, La Gomera, La Palma and Fuerteventura, Canary Islands, Spain. The specimens were collected in 2006-2009 growing from the lower intertidal to subtidal zones to 2 m depth at sites exposed to wave action. The species possesses a palisade-like arrangement of cortical cells in cross section, lacks secondary pit connections between them, and has tetrasporangia produced by three fertile pericentral cells (the third and the fourth additional and the second that becomes fertile), and a right-angled arrangement of tetrasporangia. Gametangia were not observed. The phylogenetic relationships were inferred by analyses of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences from 46 taxa. The Canarian and Brazilian P. flagellifera specimens formed a highly supported clade with a low level of genetic variation in the rbcL sequences (0.02-0.04%), confirming that they are the same taxonomic entity. This study expands the geographical distribution of P. flagellifera to the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Evidence for the conspecificity of Palisada papillosa with P. perforata (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean on the basis of morphological and molecular analyses

Morphological and molecular studies were carried out on Palisada papillosa and P. perforata from the Canary Islands (type locality of P. perforata), Mexico and Brazil. The two species have been distinguished by features of their external morphology such as size and degree of compactness of the thalli, presence or absence of arcuate branches, branching pattern and basal system. A detailed morphological comparison between these taxa showed that none of the vegetative anatomical or reproductive characters was sufficient to separate these species. The presence or absence of cortical cells in a palisade-like arrangement, also previously used to. distinguish these species, is not applicable. The species present all characters typical of the genus, and both share production of the first pericentral cell underneath the basal cell of the trichoblast, production of two fertile pericentral cells (the second and the third additional, the first remaining sterile), spermatangial branches produced from one of two laterals on the suprabasal cell of trichoblasts, and the procarpbearing segment with four pericentral cells. Details of the procarp are described for the species for the first time. The phylogenetic position of these species was inferred by analysis of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences from 39 taxa, using one other Rhodomelacean taxon and two Ceramiaceae as outgroups. Relationships within the clade formed by P. papillosa and P. perforata have not been resolved due to the low level of genetic variation in their rbcL sequences (0-0.4%). Considering this and the morphological similarities, we conclude that P. papillosa is a taxonomic synonym of P. perforata. The phylogenetic analyses also supported the nomenclatural transfer of two species of Chondrophycus to Palisada, namely, P. patentiramea (Montagne) Cassano, Senties, Gil-Rodriguez & M.T. Fujii comb. nov. and P. thuyoides (Kutzing) Cassano, Senties, Gil-Rodriguez & M.T. Fujii comb. nov.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

Successional stage and geographic features determine floristic similarity among Atlantic Forest remnants, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Analysis of floristic similarity relationships between plant communities can detect patterns of species occurrence and also explain conditioning factors. Searching for such patterns, floristic similarity relationships among Atlantic Forest sites situated at Ibiuna Plateau, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, were analyzed by multivariate techniques. Twenty one forest fragments and six sites within a continuous Forest Reserve were included in the analyses. Floristic composition and structure of the tree community (minimum dbh 5 cm) were assessed using the point centered quarter method. Two methods were used for multivariate analysis: Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN). Similarity relationships among the study areas were based on the successional stage of the community and also on spatial proximity. The more similar the successional stage of the communities, the higher the floristic similarity between them, especially if the communities are geographically close. A floristic gradient from north to south was observed, suggesting a transition between biomes, since northern indicator species are mostly heliophytes, occurring also in cerrado vegetation and seasonal semideciduous forest, while southern indicator species are mostly typical ombrophilous and climax species from typical dense evergreen Atlantic Forest.

A new genus and new species of fan worms (Polychaeta: Sabellidae) from Atlantic and Pacific Oceans-the formal treatment of taxon names as explanatory hypotheses

Members of Parasabella minuta Treadwell, 1941, subsequently moved to Perkinsiana, were collected during a survey of rocky intertidal polychaetes along the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Additional specimens, which are referred to two new species, were also found in similar habitats from the Bocas del Toro Archipelago, Caribbean Panama, and Oahu Island, Hawaii. A phylogenetic analysis of Sabellinae, including members of P. minuta and the two new species, provided justification for establishing a new generic hypothesis, Sabellomma gen. nov., for these individuals. Formal definitions are also provided for Sabellomma minuta gen. nov., comb. nov., S. collinae gen. nov., spec. nov., and S. harrisae gen. nov., spec. nov., along with descriptions of individuals to which these hypotheses apply. The generic name Aracia nom. nov., is provided to replace Kirkia Nogueira, Lopez and Rossi, 2004, pre-occupied by a mollusk.