Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Bank financing of Hungarian SMEs: Getting over to credit crisis by state interventions

In this article we aimed to present and analyse the 21st century history of bank financing in the Hungarian small and medium enterprise (SME) sector in the period ranging from 2000 to 2012. The credit products offered by banks and credit unions are the most fundamental means of external financing capable of fulfilling the financing needs of a wide array of SMEs. The conditions of accessing credits and their prices exert a decisive influence on the profitability and business opportunities of SMEs. As a result of economic slowdown SMEs had to face higher interest rates, decreasing credit limits, and bank financing options that became increasingly slowly accessible alongside stricter conditions. Due to this process SMEs business performance had been falling continuously which has a destructive contribution to the national economy. In the first chapter of the article we present the dynamic development of credit financing in the Hungarian SME sector, along with the causes that triggered it, then we will continue with the negative tendencies dating from the onset of the 2008 debt crisis. In the second chapter we discuss the vicious circle, due to which the business performance of the SMEs, as well as the conditions of access to credits and their prices, have entered into a negative spiral. In the third and final chapter we make suggestions regarding the direction and means of necessary government intervention, in order to stop and reverse the negative tendencies observed in SME credit financing.

Advanced methodologies in dynamic traffic assignment modeling of managed lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. ^ Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. ^ Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. ^ With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.^

FERTILISER CREDIT AND AGROECOLOGICAL USE OF ORGANIC SOIL AMENDMENTS IN NORTHERN GHANA

Contemporary African agricultural policy embodies the African Green Revolution’s drive towards modernisation and commercialisation. Agroecologists have criticised this movement on ecological, social and political grounds. Northern Ghanaian fertiliser credit schemes provide a good example through which these critiques can be examined in a context where agricultural policy reflects the African Green Revolution’s ideals. This study aimed to determine the relationship of such credit schemes to farmers’ use of organic amendments, elucidate other factors related to organic amendment use, and comment on the relevance of this modernisation policy and its relationship to agroecology. A first research phase employed semi-structured key informant interviews. Qualitative data from these informed construction of a semi-structured questionnaire that was used in a survey of 205 farmers. Multistage sampling purposively identified five villages and selected farmers within who had joined government and donor-funded fertiliser credit schemes. The use of organic and inorganic amendments was compared to that of peers who had not taken part in such schemes. Quantitative data were used in binomial logistic regression, inferential and descriptive statistics. Qualitative data were content analysed. Credit group membership was associated with higher fertiliser application and yield, but had little influence on the extent of commercialisation. Farmers who applied organic amendments were 40% less likely to belong to a fertiliser credit scheme than not, indicating substitution between organic and inorganic fertilisers. Organic amendments were 40% more likely to be applied to compound farms than outfields and six times more likely to be applied by household heads than other household members. However, household heads also preferentially joined credit groups. This was part of an agroecological soil fertility management strategy. Household heads appreciated the soil moisture retention properties of organic amendments, and applied them to compound farms to reduce risk to their household food supply in a semi-arid environment. They simultaneously accessed fertiliser to enhance this household provisioning strategy. They appreciated the increased yields this achieved, yet complained that the repayment terms of credit schemes were unfair, fertiliser did not enhance yields in dry conditions and fertilisers were supplied late. Farmers’ use of credited fertiliser alongside their existing agroecological strategy is helpful to the extent that it raises yields, yet is problematic in that it conflicts with risk-reduction strategies based on organics. There is some potential for modernised and agroecological management paradigms to coexist. For fertiliser credit to play a role in this, schemes must use fairer repayment terms and involve a focus on simultaneous use of organic amendments.

Information Content of Bank Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Europe

This thesis examines the short-term impact of credit rating announcements on daily stock returns of 41 European banks indexed in STOXX Europe 600 Banks. The time period of this study is 2002–2015 and the ratings represent long-term issuer ratings provided by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Bank ratings are significant for a bank’s operation costs so it is interesting to investigate how investors react to changes in creditworthiness. The study objective is achieved by conducting an event study. The event study is extended with a cross-sectional linear regression to investigate other potential determinants surrounding rating changes. The research hypotheses and the motivation for additional tests are derived from prior research. The main hypotheses are formed to explore whether rating changes have an effect on stock returns, when this possible reaction occurs and whether it is asymmetric between upgrades and downgrades. The findings provide evidence that rating announcements have an impact on stock returns in the context of European banks. The results also support the existence of an asymmetry in capital market reaction to rating upgrades and downgrades. The rating downgrades are associated with statistically significant negative abnormal returns on the event day although the reaction is rather modest. No statistically significant reaction is found associated with the rating upgrades on the event day. These results hold true with both rating changes and rating watches. No anticipation is observed in the case of rating changes but there is a statistically significant cumulative negative (positive) price reaction occurring before the event day for negative (positive) watch announcements. The regression provides evidence that the stock price reaction is stronger for rating downgrades occurring within below investment grade class compared with investment grade class. This is intuitive as investors are more concerned about their investments in lower-rated companies. Besides, the price reaction of larger banks is more mitigated compared with smaller banks in the case of rating downgrades. The reason for this may be that larger banks are usually more widely followed by the public. However, the study results may also provide evidence of the existence of the so-called “too big to fail” subsidy that dampens the negative returns of larger banks.

Advanced Methodologies in Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling of Managed Lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.

A theoretical study of the tautomerism and vibrational spectra of 4,5-diamine-2,6-dimercaptopyrimidine

The 4,5-diamine-2,6-dimercaptopyrimidine (DADMcP) compound is an interesting multifunctional species exhibiting a rather complex tautomerism, encompassing nine tautomeric forms. Investigation of tautomerism in this compound has been carried out by means of FTIR spectroscopy, in association with ab-initio HF/SCF and DFT calculations. According to this study three tautomers are energetically favored; the thione form being the most stable one. The theoretical vibrational spectra of such tautomeric forms have been successfully simulated by means of DFT calculations, allowing the elucidation and assignment of the complex composition of the vibrational bands observed for the mixture of isomers.

A reliable measure of similarity based on dependency for short time series: an application to gene expression networks

Background: Microarray techniques have become an important tool to the investigation of genetic relationships and the assignment of different phenotypes. Since microarrays are still very expensive, most of the experiments are performed with small samples. This paper introduces a method to quantify dependency between data series composed of few sample points. The method is used to construct gene co-expression subnetworks of highly significant edges. Results: The results shown here are for an adapted subset of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data set with low temporal resolution and poor statistics. The method reveals common transcription factors with a high confidence level and allows the construction of subnetworks with high biological relevance that reveals characteristic features of the processes driving the organism adaptations to specific environmental conditions. Conclusion: Our method allows a reliable and sophisticated analysis of microarray data even under severe constraints. The utilization of systems biology improves the biologists ability to elucidate the mechanisms underlying celular processes and to formulate new hypotheses.

The electronic states of SeF: A reinterpretation of the chemiluminescent emission of the reaction of selenium with fluorine

The low-lying doublet and quartet electronic states of the species SeF correlating with the first dissociation channel are investigated theoretically at a high-level of electronic correlation treatment, namely, the complete active space self-consistent field/multireference single and double excitations configuration interaction (CASSCF/MRSDCI) using a quintuple-zeta quality basis set including a relativistic effective core potential for the selenium atom. Potential energy curves for (Lambda+S) states and the corresponding spectroscopic properties are derived that allows for an unambiguous assignment of the only spectrum known experimentally as due to a spin-forbidden X (2)Pi-a (4)Sigma(-) transition, and not a A (2)Pi-X (2)Pi transition as assumed so far. For the bound excited doublets, yet unknown experimentally, this study is the first theoretical characterization of their spectroscopic properties. Also the spin-orbit coupling constant function for the X (2)Pi state is derived as well as the spin-orbit coupling matrix element between the X (2)Pi and a (4)Sigma(-) states. Dipole moment functions and vibrationally averaged dipole moments show SeF to be a very polar species. An overview of the lowest-lying spin-orbit (Omega) states completes this description. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3426315]

Detailed H-1 and C-13 NMR structural assignment and relative stereochemistry determination for three closely related sesquiterpene lactones

A complete analysis of H-1 and C-13 NMR spectra of the trypanocidal sesquiterpene lactone eremantholide C and two of its analogues is described. These structurally similar sesquiterpene lactones were submitted to H-1 NMR, C-13 (H-1) NMR, gCOSY, gHSQC, gHMBC, J-resolved and DPFGSE-NOE NMR techniques. The detailed analysis of those results, correlated to some computational calculations (molecular mechanics), led to the total and unequivocal assignment of all H-1 and C-13 NMR data. The determination of all H-1/H-1 coupling constants and all signal multiplicities, together with the elimination of previous ambiguities were also achieved. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coupling of a Jahn-Teller pseudorotation with a hindered internal rotation in an isolated molecule: 9-hydroxytriptycene

The irregular vibronic structure in the S-1<--S-0 resonant two-photon ionization (R2PI) spectrum of supersonically cooled triptycene is a result of a classic Exe Jahn-Teller effect [A. Furlan et al., J. Chem. Phys. 96, 7306 (1992)]. This is well characterized and can be used as an effective probe of intramolecular perturbations. Here we examine the S-1<--S-0 R2PI spectrum of 9-hydroxytriptycene and the fluorescence from various excited state vibronic levels. In this system the pseudorotation of the Jahn-Teller vibration is strongly coupled to the torsional motion of the bridgehead hydroxy group. This torsional motion results in a tunneling splitting in both the ground and excited states. The population of the upper level in the ground electronic state results in additional vibronic transitions becoming symmetry allowed in the R2PI spectrum that are forbidden in the bare triptycene molecule. The assignment of the R2PI and fluorescence spectra allows the potential energy surfaces of these vibrational modes to be accurately quantified. The full C-3v vibronic point group must be used to interpret the spectra. The time scale of the internal rotation of the-OH group and the butterfly flapping of the Jahn-Teller pseudorotation are of similar magnitude. The tunneling between the nine minima on the three dimensional potential energy surface is such that the Jahn-Teller pseudorotation occurs in concert with the-OH internal rotation. The Berry phase that is acquired during this motion is discussed. The simple physical picture emerges of the angle between two of the three benzene moieties opening in three equivalent ways in the S-1 electronic state. This geometry follows the position of the hydroxy group, which preferentially orients itself to point between these two rings. (C) 1998 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(98)02348-4].

Molecular characterization of Drosophila C virus isolates

Reverse transcription coupled with polymerase chain reaction and restriction enzyme analysis was used to characterize 12 Drosophila C virus isolates from geographically different regions. A 1.2-kb fragment was amplified from cDNA and profiles from digestion with 20 restriction enzymes were generated. Analysis of the restriction fragment data gave estimates of nucleotide divergence of 0-10% between isolates. The isolates were grouped on the basis of genetic distance estimates derived from the restriction data. For the isolates from which a single genotype could be purified, a geographical pattern in the distribution of viral genotypes was identified. The 4 Moroccan isolates were very closely related to each other, differing in only 1 restriction profile. The 2 Australian isolates were each other's closest relatives, as were the 2 isolates first recovered in France. The PCR-RFLP technique used in this study has provided us with a simple procedure which can be used to characterize DCV isolates. A single enzyme, Tag I, generated 5 distinct and diagnostic restriction fragment patterns, which allowed easy assignment of isolates to one of the five viral genotypes identified in this study. (C) 1999 Academic Press.

Configuration of stilbene derivatives by (1)H NMR and theoretical calculation of chemical shifts

The direct E/Z configuration assignment of tri- and tetra-substituted stilbenes (and other analogous olefins) when only one of the isomers is available is a quite challenging task. Sometimes, a chemical transformation or some other tedious method is necessary for determination of the double bond substitution pattern. In this paper, we relied on theoretical calculation of chemical shifts as a complementary tool for (1)H NMR determination of the configuration of an alpha-phenylcinnamic acid prepared as a unique isomer by the Perkin reaction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A report on socioeconomic attributes and gender inequality in Kondh-dominated villages: A comparative analysis of tribals and non-tribals in the Phulbani district, Orissa, India

Reports on results of a survey, completed in 2000, of wives in three villages in the Phulbani district, Orissa, India. These villages are dominated by the Kondh scheduled tribe but some also contain members of the scheduled caste, called Dombs in Orissa. The article reports on the total responses and comparative responses of these groups to a structured questionnaire. The article provides background information for the villages surveyed, and reports information in relation to wives and their families about property rights, assets and incomes, economic conditions and survival strategies, aspects of credit, production and marketing, social dynamics and eduction. In addition, children’s affairs, including the treatment and entitlements of female and male children, are considered as well as additional aspects of the socioeconomic status of wives.

Analysis of thermodynamic non-ideality in terms of protein solvation

The effects of thermodynamic non-ideality on the forms of sedimentation equilibrium distributions for several isoelectric proteins have been analysed on the statistical-mechanical basis of excluded volume to obtain an estimate of the extent of protein solvation. Values of the effective solvation. parameter delta are reported for ellipsoidal as well as spherical models of the proteins, taken to be rigid, impenetrable macromolecular structures. The dependence of the effective solvated radius upon protein molecular mass exhibits reasonable agreement with the relationship calculated for a model in which the unsolvated protein molecule is surrounded by a 0.52-nm solvation shell. Although the observation that this shell thickness corresponds to a double layer of water molecules may be of questionable relevance to mechanistic interpretation of protein hydration, it augurs well for the assignment of magnitudes to the second virial coefficients of putative complexes in the quantitative characterization of protein-protein interactions under conditions where effects of thermodynamic non-ideality cannot justifiably be neglected. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.