Measures of observation impact in non-Gaussian data assimilation

ABSTRACT Non-Gaussian/non-linear data assimilation is becoming an increasingly important area of research in the Geosciences as the resolution and non-linearity of models are increased and more and more non-linear observation operators are being used. In this study, we look at the effect of relaxing the assumption of a Gaussian prior on the impact of observations within the data assimilation system. Three different measures of observation impact are studied: the sensitivity of the posterior mean to the observations, mutual information and relative entropy. The sensitivity of the posterior mean is derived analytically when the prior is modelled by a simplified Gaussian mixture and the observation errors are Gaussian. It is found that the sensitivity is a strong function of the value of the observation and proportional to the posterior variance. Similarly, relative entropy is found to be a strong function of the value of the observation. However, the errors in estimating these two measures using a Gaussian approximation to the prior can differ significantly. This hampers conclusions about the effect of the non-Gaussian prior on observation impact. Mutual information does not depend on the value of the observation and is seen to be close to its Gaussian approximation. These findings are illustrated with the particle filter applied to the Lorenz ’63 system. This article is concluded with a discussion of the appropriateness of these measures of observation impact for different situations.

Individual assets, market structure and the drivers of return

Much UK research and market practice on portfolio strategy and performance benchmarking relies on a sector‐geography subdivision of properties. Prior tests of the appropriateness of such divisions have generally relied on aggregated or hypothetical return data. However, the results found in aggregate may not hold when individual buildings are considered. This paper makes use of a dataset of individual UK property returns. A series of multivariate exploratory statistical techniques are utilised to test whether the return behaviour of individual properties conforms to their a priori grouping. The results suggest strongly that neither standard sector nor regional classifications provide a clear demarcation of individual building performance. This has important implications for both portfolio strategy and performance measurement and benchmarking. However, there do appear to be size and yield effects that help explain return behaviour at the property level.

The timing of Neotropical speciation dynamics: A reconstruction of Myiopagis flycatcher diversification using phylogenetic and paleogeographic data

Neotropical forests have brought forth a large proportion of the world`s terrestrial biodiversity, but the underlying evolutionary mechanisms and their timing require further elucidation. Despite insights gained from phylogenetic studies, uncertainties about molecular clock rates have hindered efforts to determine the timing of diversification processes. Moreover, most molecular research has been detached from the extensive body of data on Neotropical geology and paleogeography. We here examine phylogenetic relationships and the timing of speciation events in a Neotropical flycatcher genus (Myiopagis) by using calibrations from modern geologic data in conjunction with a number of recently developed DNA sequence dating algorithms and by comparing these estimates with those based on a range of previously proposed molecular clock rates. We present a well-supported hypothesis of systematic relationships within the genus. Our age estimates of Myiopagis speciation events based on paleogeographic data are in close agreement with nodal ages derived from a ""traditional"" avian mitochondrial 2%/My clock, while contradicting other clock rates. Our comparative approach corroborates the consistency of the traditional avian mitochondrial clock rate of 2%/My for tyrant-flycatchers. Nevertheless, our results argue against the indiscriminate use of molecular clock rates in evolutionary research and advocate the verification of the appropriateness of the traditional clock rate by means of independent calibrations in individual studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographical Distribution and Demographic Characteristics of Gestational Trophoblastic Disease

OBJECTIVE: To outline the geographical distribution pattern of gestational trophoblastic disease (GTD) in a referral center in Bahia, Brazil, and determine the demographics of the disease.STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a study of data retrieved from medical records of 140 GTD patients referred to our Trophoblastic Diseases Center in 2002-2007, assessing geographical distribution across health care districts, demographics, referral sources, and previous pregnancy status.RESULTS: The most common GTD types were hydatidiform mole (106, 75.7%), invasive mole (32, 22.9%), choriocarcinoma (1, 0.7%), and placental site trophoblastic tumor (1, 0.7%). GTD incidence was 8.5 in 1,000 deliveries. Most patients originated from the coastal region (East district), which includes the state capital (77.9%). The 20-34 age group predominated (65%). Education level (67.9% attended elementary school only) and employment rate (42.9%) were low. Secondary hospitals were the principal source of referral (84.3%), followed by self-referrals (15.7%). Regarding previous pregnancy status, 42.1% (n = 59) had had term pregnancy, 39.3% (n = 55) no pregnancy, 15% (n = 21) miscarriage, and 0.7% (n = 1) ectopic pregnancy; 4 patients (2.9%) had previous hydatidiform mole.CONCLUSION: GTD predominated in the peak fertility age group and among patients of unfavorable sociodemographic status. (J Reprod Med 2010;55:305-310)

Referral letters in oral medicine: an approach for the general dental practitioner

The aim of this study was to analyze the contents of referral letters related to clinical history and reason for consultation. A total of 236 consecutive referral letters were evaluated. Analysis of the referral letters was based on key items concerning patient identification. chief complaint, previous consultation. laboratory investigation and use of drugs for the chief complaint. A database was organized (Epinfo 6.04) and the chi (2) test (a = 0.05) was applied to the results. of the 800 files examined. only 30%, (236) had a referral letter. of the 236 referral letters. 67% were from dentists, 22% from physicians and 11% from unidentified professionals. Patient age did not appear in 70%, of the letters and the chief complaint was mentioned only in 55%. The letters had no details such as description of the oral lesion (80%), anatomical site (34%), size (99%), symptoms (83%), or period of evolution (92%). Clinical diagnosis was not included in 84% of the letters. Less than 5% of the referral letters contained information about previous consultation and laboratory investigation. The chi (2) test showed significant differences for ail items of the referral letter. Referral letters did not satisfy minimal requirements about clinical history or reason for consultation. leading to failed communication among professionals. Based on this study, we suggest that standard letters are important to improve the quality of the letters, reducing the rate of omission of relevant items.

The contribution of biofuels to the sustainability of development in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Case study of children of referrals to health services: an individualizing design?

Nowadays education for all is recommended as an international action. However in Brazil one can observe homogeneous practices for a heterogeneous public. When the student has learning difficulties, there seems to be an attempt to normalization and pathologization by the means of referral, many times being indiscriminate, to health services. This case study aimed to analyze records of pedagogical strategies to meet the students educational needs before sending them to health services. Two records sent to a multidisciplinary team of a Regional Specialty Clinic (ARE) in a city of the state of São Paulo/Brazil, were used. The results reflect that the records of the educators do not show the pedagogical strategies used with the students and that the education system still seeks homogeneous classes, devaluating the diversity present in its context.

Student Reactions to Professor Use of Facebook

Mazer, Murphy and Simonds (2007) recently demonstrated that high self-disclosure, compared to low self-disclosure, on a fictitious professor's Facebook profile was related to students' expectations of a positive classroom environment and high levels of motivation. These findings raise the question of whether all types of self-disclosure would have the same effect. This study examined college students' perceptions of specific ways that professors might use Facebook. We created six Facebook profiles for a fictitious male professor, each with a specific emphasis: Republican, Democrat, religious, family- oriented, socially oriented, or professional only. While viewing a printed version of one of the randomly distributed profiles, participants responded to questions that assessed their perceptions of the professors' teaching ability, classroom demeanor and appropriateness of self-disclosure, as well as their own Facebook use. Students responded most negatively, but sometimes with greatest interest, to professors' posting of social and political information. Appropriate use of Facebook, including professional and family information, increased students' respect for the professor and his classroom. These findings could be very helpful in guiding professor Facebook use.

Translocation of nine-banded armadillos

During the last 150 years, nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) have increased their range and abundance in the southeastern United States. When foraging, armadillos cause damage to agricultural crops as, as well as cause structural damage to driveways and foundations. Homeowners frequently use translocation to reduce local armadillo abundance. Despite its popularity with the general public, however, the appropriateness of nuisance wildlife translocation presents concerns for biologists. Our objective was to address some of these concerns by examining survival and movements of translocated armadillos. We translocated 12 armadillos (9 male, 3 female) equipped with radio-transmitters and compared their survival and movements to that of 29 (11 male, 18 female) resident armadillos. Most (92%) of the translocated animals dispersed from their release site within the fi rst few days after release. Resident armadillos generally maintained stable home ranges. We found evidence that translocated animals were abl to return to their original capture sites. We, therefore, recommend against translocating nuisance armadillos.

Evaluation of quality of life in severely obese patients after bariatric surgery carried out in the public healthcare system

Objectives: To assess QoL of obese patients in the Brazilian public healthcare system, before and after bariatric surgery, and to determine the appropriateness of the Moorehead-Ardelt Questionnaire II (M-A-QoLQII) compared with the Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Subjects and methods: Forty-one severe obese patients in a waiting-list, and 84 patients who underwent bariatric surgery were included. Correlations were tested and reliability determined by the Cronbach's coefficient. Results: BMI differed between the pre- and post-surgery groups (52.3 +/- 8.3 kg/m(2) vs. 32.5 +/- 6.4 kg/m(2), p < 0.001). The latter showed better scores in the SF-36 domains than in the pre-surgery. SF-36 and M-A-QoLQII categories were correlated (r = 0.53, 0.49 and 0.47, for vitality, mental health, and general health domains, p < 0.001). In the logistic regression, age, previous BMI, and loss of excess weight were associated with functional capacity. Conclusions:The outcomes of bariatric surgery obtained in a Brazilian public healthcare center were successful. M-A-QoLII represents a useful tool to assess surgery outcomes, including QoL. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(1):33-8

Assessment of referrals to an OT consultation-liaison service: a retrospective and comparative study

The objective was to conduct a retrospective and comparative study of the requests for consultation-liaison (RCLs), during a period of six years, sent to the Occupational Therapy (OT) team that acts as the Consultation-liaison Service in Mental Health. During the studied period 709 RCLs were made and 633 patients received OT consultations. The comparison group was extended to 1 129 consecutive referrals to the psychiatric CL service, within the same period and that were also retrospectively reviewed. Regarding to RCLs to the OT team, most of the subjects were women with incomplete elementary schooling, with a mean age of 39.2 years, and were self-employed or retired. Internal Medicine was responsible for most of the RCLs. The mean length of hospitalization was 51 days and the mean rate of referral was 0.5%, with the most frequent reason for the request being related to the emotional aspects and the most frequent psychiatric diagnosis was mood disorder. It is concluded that there is a clear demand for the development of consultation-liaison in OT, particularly with regard to the promotion of mental health in general hospitals.

RHYTHM-AF: design of an international registry on cardioversion of atrial fibrillation and characteristics of participating centers

Background: Atrial fibrillation is a serious public health problem posing a considerable burden to not only patients, but the healthcare environment due to high rates of morbidity, mortality, and medical resource utilization. There are limited data on the variation in treatment practice patterns across different countries, healthcare settings and the associated health outcomes. Methods/design: RHYTHM-AF was a prospective observational multinational study of management of recent onset atrial fibrillation patients considered for cardioversion designed to collect data on international treatment patterns and short term outcomes related to cardioversion. We present data collected in 10 countries between May 2010 and June 2011. Enrollment was ongoing in Italy and Brazil at the time of data analysis. Data were collected at the time of atrial fibrillation episode in all countries (Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom), and cumulative follow-up data were collected at day 60 (+/- 10) in all but Spain. Information on center characteristics, enrollment data, patient demographics, detail of atrial fibrillation episode, medical history, diagnostic procedures, acute treatment of atrial fibrillation, discharge information and the follow-up data on major events and rehospitalizations up to day 60 were collected. Discussion: A total of 3940 patients were enrolled from 175 acute care centers. 70.5% of the centers were either academic (44%) or teaching (26%) hospitals with an overall median capacity of 510 beds. The sites were mostly specialized with anticoagulation clinics (65.9%), heart failure (75.1%) and hypertension clinics (60.1%) available. The RHYTHM-AF registry will provide insight into regional variability of antiarrhythmic and antithrombotic treatment of atrial fibrillation, the appropriateness of such treatments with respect to outcomes, and their cost-efficacy. Observations will help inform strategies to improve cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

Population based screening - the difficulty of how to do more good than harm and how to achieve it

Screening people without symptoms of disease is an attractive idea. Screening allows early detection of disease or elevated risk of disease, and has the potential for improved treatment and reduction of mortality. The list of future screening opportunities is set to grow because of the refinement of screening techniques, the increasing frequency of degenerative and chronic diseases, and the steadily growing body of evidence on genetic predispositions for various diseases. But how should we decide on the diseases for which screening should be done and on recommendations for how it should be implemented? We use the examples of prostate cancer and genetic screening to show the importance of considering screening as an ongoing population-based intervention with beneficial and harmful effects, and not simply the use of a test. Assessing whether screening should be recommended and implemented for any named disease is therefore a multi-dimensional task in health technology assessment. There are several countries that already use established processes and criteria to assess the appropriateness of screening. We argue that the Swiss healthcare system needs a nationwide screening commission mandated to conduct appropriate evidence-based evaluation of the impact of proposed screening interventions, to issue evidence-based recommendations, and to monitor the performance of screening programmes introduced. Without explicit processes there is a danger that beneficial screening programmes could be neglected and that ineffective, and potentially harmful, screening procedures could be introduced.

Infliximab for Crohn's disease in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study: clinical management and appropriateness

Antitumor necrosis factor a agents have significantly improved the management of Crohn's disease (CD), but not all patients benefit from this therapy. We used data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study and predefined appropriateness criteria to examine the appropriateness of use of infliximab (IFX) in CD patients.