How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

Application of the Hidden Markov Model for Innovative Projects "Viability" Analysis

This master thesis deals with determining of innovative projects "viability". "Viability" is the probability of innovative project being implemented. Hidden Markov Models are used for evaluation of this factor. The problem of determining parameters of model, which produce given data sequence with the highest probability, are solving in this research. Data about innovative projects contained in reports of Russian programs "UMNIK", "START" and additional data obtained during study are used as input data for determining of model parameters. The Baum-Welch algorithm which is one implementation of expectation-maximization algorithm is used at this research for calculating model parameters. At the end part of the master thesis mathematical basics for practical implementation are given (in particular mathematical description of the algorithm and implementation methods for Markov models).

The Problem Sensitization Robotic Complex Drilling and Milling of Sandwich Shells of Polymer Composites

In clause is given robotic a complex for drilling and milling sandwich shells from polymeric composites. The machining of polymeric composite materials has technological problems. At drilling sandwich shells there is a probability of destruction of a drill from hit of the tool in a partition. The system sensibilization robotic complex for increase of reliability of work of the cutting tool of the small size is offered.

Search of Method for Analyzing "Viability" of Innovative Projects

Questions of "viability" evaluation of innovation projects are considered in this article. As a method of evaluation Hidden Markov Models are used. Problem of determining model parameters, which reproduce test data with highest accuracy are solving. For training the model statistical data on the implementation of innovative projects are used. Baum-Welch algorithm is used as a training algorithm.

Pollen record and age determiation of sediments from the Labaz Lake area

Pollen records from perennially frozen sequences provide vegetation and climate reconstruction for the last 48,000 14C years in the central part of Taymyr Peninsula. Open larch forest with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana grew during the Kargin (Middle Weichselian) Interstade, ca. 48,000-25,000 14C yr B.P. The climate was generally warmer and wetter than today. Open steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Poaceae, Asteraceae, and herb tundralike communities with dwarf Betula and Salix dominated during the Sartan (Late Weichselian) Stade, ca. 24,000-10,300 14C yr B.P. The statistical information method used for climate reconstruction shows that the coldest climate was ca. 20,000-17,000 14C yr B.P. A warming (Allerød Interstade?) with mean July temperature ca. 1.5°C warmer than today occurred ca. 12,000 14C yr B.P. The following cooling with temperatures about 3°-4°C cooler than present and precipitation about 100 mm lower corresponds well with the Younger Dryas Stade. Tundra-steppe vegetation changed to Betula nana-Alnus fruticosa shrub tundra ca. 10,000 14C yr B.P. Larch appeared in the area ca. 9400 14C yr B.P. and disappeared after 2900 14C yr B.P. Cooling events ca. 10,500, 9600, and 8200 14C yr B.P. characterized the first half of the Holocene. A significant warming occurred ca. 8500 14C yr B.P., but the Holocene temperature maximum was at about 6000-4500 14C yr B.P. The vegetation cover approximated modern conditions ca. 2800 14C yr B.P. Late Holocene warming events occurred at ca. 3500, 2000, and 1000 14C yr B.P. A cooling (Little Ice Age?) took place between 500 and 200 14C yr ago.

Cinquième quatuor, en re, pour deux violons, alto et violoncelle.

Mode of access: Internet.

Bibli oteka dli a chteni i a : zhurnal slovesnosti, nauk, khudozhestv, promyshlennosti, novostei i mod.

Editors: O.I. Senkovskii , 1934-1857; A.V. Druzhinin, 1858-1860; A.F. Pisemskii , 1861-1862; P.D. Boborykin, 1863-1865.

A short grammar of Church Slavonic.

Mode of access: Internet.

History of the Byzantine Empire, 324-1453.

Bibliography: p. 735-799.

The Russian attack on Constantinople in 860.

Includes bibliographical references.

The Goths in the Crimea

"The publication of this book was made possible by grants of funds to the Academy from the Carnegie corporation of New York and the American council of learned societies."

The Goths in the Crimea /

"The publication of this book was made possible by grants of funds to the academy from the Carnegie corporation of New York and the American council of learned societies."