The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State. OSW Point of View Number 52, August 2015

Since June 2014, Islamic State (IS) has been regarded as the principal security threat in the Middle East and one of the most important problems for European and global security. Islamic State, which for many years was just one of many terror organisations with links to al-Qaeda, has succeeded in achieving much more than other similar organisations: it has taken over control of large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq by military means, created its own para-state structures in that area, and become the greatest civilisational challenge for the region in a century as it established a self-proclaimed caliphate and credibly pledged to expand further on a global scale. Those successes have been accompanied by widely publicised acts of systemic brutality which meets the definition of crimes against humanity. One outcome of these developments is the emergence of an exotic informal alliance to combatthe Islamic State, which has brought together all the states from the Middle East and many from beyond the region. However, contrary to what could have been predicted, after almost a year of the declared war against IS, the Caliphate still holds most of the ground it gained in 2014.

Cadence, war and security

An increased incidence of attack has been identified as a major characteristic of the new threat posed by terrorist groups such as al Qaeda. This article considers what such a change means for Western national security systems by examining bow different parts of the system change over time. It becomes evident that Western national security systems are structured on an assumption of comparatively slow state-based threats. In contrast, terrorist franchises operate at a faster pace, are more 'lightweight' and can adapt within the operational and capability cycles of Western governments. Neither network-centric warfare nor an improved assessment of the threat, called for by some, offers a panacea in this regard. Rather, it is clear that not only do Western governments need to adjust their operational and capability cycles, but that they also need a greater diversity of responses to increase overall national security resilience and offer more tools for policy-makers.

Islamist Cyber Networks in Spanish-Speaking Latin America

Despite significant concern among policy, law enforcement and intelligence communities in the United States (U.S.) over the possible spread of radical Islamist thought throughout the world as part of a global jihad movement, there has been little investigation into the growing cyber networks in Latin America that promote strong anti-Semitic and anti-U.S. messages. This paper offers an overview of that network, focusing on the structure of Shi’ite websites that promote not only religious conversion but are also supportive of Iran -- a designated State-sponsor of terrorism – its nuclear program. Hezbollah, and the “Bolivarian revolution” led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his allies in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. There is also a smaller group of Sunni Muslim websites, mostly tied to the legacy organizations of the Muslim Brotherhood. Many of the Shi’ite websites are linked to each other consistently portray Israel as a Nazi State, and the United States as an imperialist war monger. The Palestinian issue is frequently juxtaposed with the anti-imperialist struggle that those states supporting Chávez’ Bolivarian revolution claim to wage against the United States. Some of the Islamist websites claim thousands of new convert, but such claims are difficult to verify. Most of the websites visited touted the conversion of one or two individuals as significant victories and signs of progress, implying that there are few, if any, mass conversions. While conducting this research, no websites directly claiming to be linked to Hezbollah were found, although there numerous sites hosted by that group that were active until around 2006. Several of the inactive links are supportive of Hezbollah as a political party. No websites linked to al Qaeda were found. Yet a substantial Internet network remains operational. Much of the outreach for Shi’ite Muslims, closely tied to Iran, is sponsored on numerous websites across the region, including El Salvador, Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico and Bolivia. Numerous Facebook forums for discussion are also hosted around Latin America. These links must be viewed in the context of the rapidly expanding diplomatic, intelligence, political and economic ties of Iran in recent years with the self-proclaimed Bolivarian states. Given the sparse literature available and the rich vein of un-mined information on the sites cited as well as others that one could find with additional research, the cyber network of Islamist groups remains one of the least understood or studied facets of their presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. It merits significantly more investigation.

La Ciberseguridad como factor crítico en la Seguridad de la Unión Europea

El ciberespacio es un escenario de conflicto altamente complejo al estar en constante evolución. Ni la Unión Europea ni ningún otro actor del sistema internacional se encuentra a salvo de las amenazas procedentes del ciberespacio. Pero los pasos dados desde la UE en el mundo de la ciberseguridad no son en absoluto suficientes. Europa necesita que su Estrategia de ciberseguridad sea realmente capaz de integrar a las diferentes Estrategias nacionales. Es urgente una mayor determinación, unos mayores recursos y unos mejores instrumentos que permitan a la Unión implementar una gestión de crisis y una prevención de ciberconflictos verdaderamente eficaz.

Jogos de guerra : o uso da estratég militar na competição empresarial

A dificuldade de ação do comando central perante as várias medidas associadas à “Guerra Global ao Terrorismo”, levou à simultânea descentralização e desterritorialização estrutural da al-Qaeda. O comando foi perdendo proeminência. Todavia, para uma efetiva consecução da vitória, a aplicação coletiva da força jihadista deverá ser orquestrada. Quando a ação parte do comando central ainda se garante a transmissão certa da mensagem operacional e estratégica. Com a decapitação das cúpulas e o quase ruir da estrutura central, esta dinâmica tornou-se quase impossível. Ainda assim, a al-Qaeda mantém-se operacional e uma ameaça. Se a orquestração operacional depender de uma estrutura de cadeia de comando e controlo aumenta o grau de vulnerabilidade da organização. Mas a descentralização e a liberalização da jihad global dificultam a coordenação com prioridades estratégicas e impedem ações resultantes de boa aplicação de sinergias, como por exemplo, ataques em larga escala. Este artigo procura compreender de que forma é que a al-Qaeda mantem a uniformidade da ação armada jihadista, não obstante a ausência de uma estrutura que conceba uma doutrina militar.

Consecuencias literarias del 11-S: la representación de la violencia en la novela angloamericana

In my eight years as a professional journalist, I have been a front line observer of the extreme level of violence which occurs everyday in our society. As victims, consumers or perpetrators of violence, this phenomenon is now a part of our existence. As a reporter for the Spanish national newspaper El País I have been witness to the most terrible acts of violence. In Venezuela, with one of the highest rates of criminality in the world, I saw piles of bodies stacked up in mortuaries. In Argentina, I reported on the most brutal crimes including the rape of children by policemen. I believe that my interest in the manifestations and causes of violence was aroused during my time as a journalist. On a personal level, I was deeply affected by the twin poles of attraction/repulsion which the violent images produced in me. The first time I visited New York in 2003, I talked to various people who were selling photos of the victims of the Twin Tower attacks. They had laid out their wares along the wire fence that separated Ground Zero from the main public areas. One particular photograph made an indelible impression on my mind: a ghost like corpse covered in white dust which was streaked with blood. It is an image I will never forget. If I remember well, a complete album of these gruesome images cost about ten dollars. At the same time, I also became interested in islamic terrorism: its complexity and the great impact it has made on Western society. One only has to look at the front page of the press around the world to read about war, terrorism or the constant violation of human rights. The words Al-Qaeda, Daesh, Boko Haram and Islamic State have sadly become parts of our everyday language. The nihilistic philosophy which promisess eternal life in exchange for self-inmolation is a new, highly worrying reality, especially painful when it involves young people who become indoctrinated through the social media. They have become the most loyal supporters of a fanatical and uncompromising version of Islam. The stark reality is that these young recruits to Jihad (holy war) were born in places like London, Paris, Rome or Madrid...

Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.

Estado Islámico: erosión de la estatalidad en Iraq y Siria y la aparición de una estatalidad paralela desde la proclamación del Califato hasta la caída de Kobane

El interés de este estudio de caso es analizar la naturaleza del Estado Islámico y su impacto en la estatalidad y soberanía de Iraq y Siria. Se estudia y explica cómo ha sido la evolución y expansión del Estado Islámico y el impacto que este proceso ha tenido sobre Iraq y Siria generando de esta manera la aparición de una estatalidad paralela a través de la construcción de un aparato institucional por parte del Estado Islámico, lo que contribuye al desarrollo de un “para-estado”. Siguiendo la línea argumentativa, finalmente se demuestra que en la evolución del Estado Islámico se logra crear una forma primitiva de Estado, adquiriendo poco a poco niveles de estatalidad, lo que lleva a que los Estados de Iraq y Siria pierdan atributos de estatalidad y de un Estado soberano.

A new low temperature synthesis route of fraipontite (Zn,Al)3(Si,Al)2O5(OH)4

A low temperature synthesis method based on the decomposition of urea at 90°C in water has been developed to synthesise fraipontite. This material is characterised by a basal reflection 001 at 7.44 Å. The trioctahedral nature of the fraipontite is shown by the presence of a 06l band around 1.54 Å, while a minor band around 1.51 Å indicates some cation ordering between Zn and Al resulting in Al-rich areas with a more dioctahedral nature. TEM and IR indicate that no separate kaolinite phase is present. An increase in the Al content however, did result in the formation of some SiO2 in the form of quartz. Minor impurities of carbonate salts were observed during the synthesis caused by to the formation of CO32- during the decomposition of urea.

Synthesis and Raman spectroscopic study of Mg/Al,Fe hydrotalcites with variable cationic ratios

Hydrotalcites of formula Mg6 (Fe,Al)2(OH)16(CO3).4H2O formed by intercalation with the carbonate anion as a function of divalent/trivalent cationic ratio have been successfully synthesised. The XRD patterns show variation in the d-spacing attributed to the size of the cation. Raman and infrared bands in the OH stretching region are assigned to (a) brucite layer OH stretching vibrations (b) water stretching bands and (c) water strongly hydrogen bonded to the carbonate anion. Multiple (CO3)2- symmetric stretching bands suggest that different types of (CO3)2- exist in the hydrotalcite interlayer. Increasing the cation ratio (Mg/Al,Fe) resulted in an increase in the combined intensity of the 2 Raman bands at around 3600 cm-1, attributed to Mg-OH stretching modes, and a shift of the overall band profile to higher wavenumbers. These observations are believed to be a result of the increase in magnesium in the structure. Raman spectroscopy shows a reduction in the symmetry of the carbonate, leading to the conclusion that the anions are bonded to the brucite-like hydroxyl surface and to the water in the interlayer. Water bending modes are identified in the infrared spectra at positions greater than 1630 cm-1, indicating the water is strongly hydrogen bonded to both the interlayer anions and the brucite-like surface.

Indentation size effect and strain rate sensitivity of nanocrystalline Mg-Al alloys

Deformation Behaviour of microcrystalline (mc) and nanocrystalline (nc) Mg-5%Al alloys produced by hot extrusion of ball-milled powders were investigated using instrumented indentation tests. The hardness values of the mc and nc metals exhibited indentation size effect (ISE), with nc alloys showing weaker ISE. The highly localized dislocation activities resulted in a small activation volume, hence enhanced strain rate sensitivity. Relative higher strain rate sensitivity and the negative Hall-Petch Relationship suggested the increasingly important role of grain boundary mediated mechanisms when the grain size decreased to nanometer region.

Compressive behaviour of nanocrystallilne Mg-5%Al alloys

Magnesium alloys are attracting increasing research interests due to their low density, high specific strength and good mechineability and availability as compared to other structural materials. However, the deformation and failure mechanisms of nanocrystalline Mg alloys have not been well understood. In this work, the deformation behavior of nanocrystalline Mg-5% Al alloys was investigated using compression test, with a focus on the effects of grain size. The average grain size of the Mg-Al alloy was changed from 13 µm to 50 nm via mechanical milling. The results showed that grain size had a significant influence on the yield stress and ductility of the Mg alloys, and the materials exhibited increased strain rate sensitivity with decrease of grain size. The deformation mechanisms were also strongly dependent with the grain sizes.

A participant’s response : recreating the circle with We Al-Li: a program for sharing and regeneration

Personal reflections on the We Al-Li Program

Molecular structure of Mg-Al, Mn-Al and Zn-Al halotrichites : an infrared spectroscopic study

Near infrared (NIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and infrared (IR) spectroscopy have been applied to halotrichites of the formula MgAl2(SO4)4∙22H2O, MnAl2(SO4)4∙22H2O and ZnAl2(SO4)4∙22H2O. Comparison of the halotrichites in different spectral regions has shown that the incorporation of a divalent transition metal into the halotrichite structure causes a shift in OH stretching band positions to lower wavenumbers. Therefore, an increase in hydrogen bonded water is observed for divalent cations with a larger molecular mass. XRD has confirmed the formation of halotrichite for all three samples and characteristic peaks of halotrichite have been identified at 18.5 and 24.5° 2θ, along with a group of six peaks between 5 and 15° 2θ. It has been observed that Mg-Al and Mn-Al halotrichite are very similar in structure, while Zn-Al showed several differences particularly in the NIR spectra. This work has shown that halotrichite structures can be synthesised and characterised by infrared and NIR spectroscopy.