Analyzing convergence of Agricultural and Rural Areas in the Enlarged EU: The case of Hungary

The fall of the Berlin Wall opened the way for a reform path – the transition process – which accompanied ten former Socialist countries in Central and South Eastern Europe to knock at the EU doors. By the way, at the time of the EU membership several economic and structural weaknesses remained. A tendency towards convergence between the new Member States (NMS) and the EU average income level emerged, together with a spread of inequality at the sub-regional level, mainly driven by the backwardness of the agricultural and rural areas. Several progresses were made in evaluating the policies for rural areas, but a shared definition of rurality is still missing. Numerous indicators were calculated for assessing the effectiveness of the Common Agricultural Policy and Rural Development Policy. Previous analysis on the Central and Eastern European countries found that the characteristics of the most backward areas were insufficiently addressed by the policies enacted; the low data availability and accountability at a sub-regional level, and the deficiencies in institutional planning and implementation represented an obstacle for targeting policies and payments. The next pages aim at providing a basis for understanding the connections between the peculiarities of the transition process, the current development performance of NMS and the EU role, with particular attention to the agricultural and rural areas. Applying a mixed methodological approach (multivariate statistics, non-parametric methods, spatial econometrics), this study contributes to the identification of rural areas and to the analysis of the changes occurred during the EU membership in Hungary, assessing the effect of CAP introduction and its contribution to the convergence of the Hungarian agricultural and rural. The author believes that more targeted – and therefore efficient – policies for agricultural and rural areas require a deeper knowledge of their structural and dynamic characteristics.

The interorganizational challenge of agricultural reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The case study reported below examines USAID's "Linking Agricultural Markets with Producers" program. This program complemented Bosnia and Herzegovina's overall sustainable agriculture policies. Implementing organizations quickly recognized that sustainability must be achieved not only from an environmental perspective, but in the interorganizational domain as well. Public, private and nonprofit players had to develop the social, economic and political infrastructure required for sustainable agricultural projects to succeed. These institutional changes were at times more difficult than the sustainable agriculture policies and practices they supported. Framed within LAMP's identification of constraints and proposed solutions for agricultural reform, we explored the interorganizational linkages required for success. We identified three distinct types: 1) those within the international community, 2) those within the local community and 3) those between international and local organizations. The case illustrates the institutional and managerial obstacles to and opportunities for implementing sustainable development reforms in transition settings.

Adapting public agricultural extension services to climate change: Insights from Kenya

This paper analyses the adaptiveness of the Public Agricultural Extension Services (PAES) to climate change. Existing literature, interviews and group discussions among PAES actors in larger Makueni district, Kenya, provided the data for the analyses. The findings show that the PAES already have various elements of adaptiveness in its policies, approaches and methods of extension provision. However, the hierarchical structure of the PAES does not augur well for self-organisation at local levels of extension provision, especially under conditions of abrupt change which climate change might trigger. Most importantly, adpativeness presupposes adaptive capacity but the lack of resources in terms of funding for extension, limited mobility of extension officers, the low extension staff/farmer ratio, the aging of extension staff and significant dependence on donor funding limits the adaptiveness of the PAES. Accordingly criteria and indicators were identified in literature with which an initial assessement of the adaptiiveneess of PAES was conducted. However this assessment framework needs to be improved and future steps will integrate more specific inputs from actors in PAES in order to make the framework operational.

Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change.

Implications of biofuel support policies in Europe - a quantitative analysis in an open economy

EU biofuels support Biofuels modelling with CAPRI Scenario setting Main results Concluding remarks Biofuels production and use will remain mainly driven by public support Strong links of biofuels to agricultural markets Development of second generation technologies would ease food-fuel links

A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe

The effects of climate change will be felt by most farmers in Europe over the next decades. This study provides consistent results of the impact of climate change on arable agriculture in Europe by using high resolution climate data, socio-economic data, and impact assessment models, including farmer adaptation. All scenarios are consistent with the spatial distribution of effects, exacerbating regional disparities and current vulnerability to climate. Since the results assume no restrictions on the use of water for irrigation or on the application of agrochemicals, they may be considered optimistic from the production point of view and somewhat pessimistic from the environmental point of view. The results provide an estimate of the regional economic impact of climate change, as well as insights into the importance of mitigation and adaptation policies.

Implications of agricultural production, policy and land use changes on water resource assessment

Una gestión más eficiente y equitativa del agua a escala de cuenca no se puede centrar exclusivamente en el recurso hídrico en sí, sino también en otras políticas y disciplinas científicas. Existe un consenso creciente de que, además de la consideración de las cambiantes condiciones climáticas, es necesaria una integración de ámbitos de investigación tales como la agronomía, planificación del territorio y ciencias políticas y económicas a fin de satisfacer de manera sostenible las demandas de agua por parte de la sociedad y del medio natural. La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal motor de cambio en las tendencias de paisajes rurales y sistemas agrícolas, pero el deterioro del medio ambiente es ahora una de las principales preocupaciones. Uno de los cambios más relevantes se ha producido con la expansión e intensificación del olivar en España, principalmente con nuevas zonas de regadío o la conversión de olivares de secano a sistemas en regadío. Por otra parte, el cambio de las condiciones climáticas podría ejercer un papel importante en las tendencias negativas de las aportaciones a los ríos, pero no queda claro el papel que podrían estar jugando los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas de caudal observadas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de los efectos de la producción agrícola, política agraria y cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las condiciones de calidad del agua, respuesta hidrológica y apropiación del agua por parte de la sociedad. En primer lugar, el estudio determina las tendencias existentes de nitratos y sólidos en suspensión en las aguas superficiales de la cuenca del río Guadalquivir durante el periodo de 1998 a 2009. Desde una perspectiva de política agraria, la investigación trata de evaluar mediante un análisis de datos de panel las principales variables, incluyendo la reforma de la PAC de 2003, que están teniendo una influencia en ambos indicadores de calidad. En segundo lugar, la apropiación del agua y el nivel de contaminación por nitratos debido a la producción del aceite de oliva en España se determinan con una evaluación de la huella hídrica (HH), teniendo en cuenta una variabilidad espacial y temporal a largo de las provincias españolas y entre 1997 y 2008. Por último, la tesis analiza los efectos de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas observadas en la zona alta del Turia, cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar, durante el periodo 1973-2008 mediante una modelización ecohidrológica. En la cuenca del Guadalquivir cerca del 20% de las estaciones de monitoreo muestran tendencias significativas, lineales o cuadráticas, para cada indicador de calidad de agua. La mayoría de las tendencias significativas en nitratos están aumentando, y la mayoría de tendencias cuadráticas muestran un patrón en forma de U. Los modelos de regresión de datos de panel muestran que las variables más importantes que empeoran ambos indicadores de calidad del agua son la intensificación de biomasa y las exportaciones de ambos indicadores de calidad procedentes de aguas arriba. En regiones en las que el abandono agrícola y/o desintensificación han tenido lugar han mejorado las condiciones de calidad del agua. Para los nitratos, el desacoplamiento de las subvenciones a la agricultura y la reducción de la cuantía de las subvenciones a tierras de regadío subyacen en la reducción observada de la concentración de nitratos. Las medidas de modernización de regadíos y el establecimiento de zonas vulnerables a nitratos reducen la concentración en subcuencas que muestran una tendencia creciente de nitratos. Sin embargo, el efecto de las exportaciones de nitratos procedente de aguas arriba, la intensificación de la biomasa y los precios de los cultivos presentan un mayor peso, explicando la tendencia creciente observada de nitratos. Para los sólidos en suspensión, no queda de forma evidente si el proceso de desacoplamiento ha influido negativa o positivamente. Sin embargo, los mayores valores de las ayudas agrarias aún ligadas a la producción, en particular en zonas de regadío, conllevan un aumento de las tasas de erosión. Aunque la cuenca del Guadalquivir ha aumentado la producción agrícola y la eficiencia del uso del agua, el problema de las altas tasas de erosión aún no ha sido mitigado adecuadamente. El estudio de la huella hídrica (HH) revela que en 1 L de aceite de oliva español más del 99,5% de la HH está relacionado con la producción de la aceituna, mientras que menos del 0,5% se debe a otros componentes, es decir, a la botella, tapón y etiqueta. Durante el período estudiado, la HH verde en secano y en regadío representa alrededor del 72% y 12%, respectivamente, del total de la HH. Las HHs azul y gris representan 6% y 10%, respectivamente. La producción de aceitunas se concentra en regiones con una HH menor por unidad de producto. La producción de aceite de oliva ha aumentado su productividad del agua durante 1997-2008, incentivado por los crecientes precios del aceite, como también lo ha hecho la cantidad de exportaciones de agua virtual. De hecho, las mayores zonas productoras presentan una eficiencia alta del uso y de productividad del agua, así como un menor potencial de contaminación por nitratos. Pero en estas zonas se ve a la vez reflejado un aumento de presión sobre los recursos hídricos locales. El aumento de extracciones de agua subterránea relacionadas con las exportaciones de aceite de oliva podría añadir una mayor presión a la ya estresada cuenca del Guadalquivir, mostrando la necesidad de equilibrar las fuerzas del mercado con los recursos locales disponibles. Los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal juegan un papel importante en el balance del agua de la cuenca alta del Turia, pero no son el principal motor que sustenta la reducción observada de caudal. El aumento de la temperatura es el principal factor que explica las mayores tasas de evapotranspiración y la reducción de caudales. Sin embargo, los cambios de uso de suelo y el cambio climático han tenido un efecto compensatorio en la respuesta hidrológica. Por un lado, el caudal se ha visto afectado negativamente por el aumento de la temperatura, mientras que los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal han compensado positivamente con una reducción de las tasas de evapotranspiración, gracias a los procesos de disminución de la densidad de matorral y de degradación forestal. El estudio proporciona una visión que fortalece la interdisciplinariedad entre la planificación hidrológica y territorial, destacando la necesidad de incluir las implicaciones de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en futuros planes hidrológicos. Estos hallazgos son valiosos para la gestión de la cuenca del río Turia, y el enfoque empleado es útil para la determinación del peso de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en la respuesta hidrológica en otras regiones. ABSTRACT Achieving a more efficient and equitable water management at catchment scale does not only rely on the water resource itself, but also on other policies and scientific knowledge. There is a growing consensus that, in addition to consideration of changing climate conditions, integration with research areas such as agronomy, land use planning and economics and political science is required to meet sustainably the societal and environmental water demands. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a main driver for trends in rural landscapes and agricultural systems, but environmental deterioration is now a principal concern. One of the most relevant changes has occurred with the expansion and intensification of olive orchards in Spain, taking place mainly with new irrigated areas or with the conversion from rainfed to irrigated systems. Moreover, changing climate conditions might exert a major role on water yield trends, but it remains unclear the role that ongoing land use and land cover changes (LULCC) might have on observed river flow trends. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the effects of agricultural production, policies and LULCC on water quality conditions, hydrological response and human water appropriation. Firstly, the study determines the existing trends for nitrates and suspended solids in the Guadalquivir river basin’s surface waters (south Spain) during the period from 1998 to 2009. From a policy perspective, the research tries to assess with panel data analysis the main drivers, including the 2003 CAP reform, which are having an influence on both water quality indicators. Secondly, water appropriation and nitrate pollution level originating from the production of olive oil in Spain is determined with a water footprint (WF) assessment, considering a spatial temporal variability across the Spanish provinces and from 1997 to 2008 years. Finally, the thesis analyzes the effects of the LULCC on the observed negative trends over the period 1973-2008 in the Upper Turia basin, headwaters of the Júcar river demarcation (east Spain), with ecohydrological modeling. In the Guadalquivir river basin about 20% of monitoring stations show significant trends, linear or quadratic, for each water quality indicator. Most significant trends of nitrates are augmenting than decreasing, and most significant quadratic terms of both indicators exhibit U-shaped patterns. The panel data models show that the most important drivers that are worsening nitrates and suspended solids in the basin are biomass intensification and exports of both water quality indicators from upland regions. In regions that agricultural abandonment and/or de-intensification have taken place the water quality conditions have improved. For nitrates, the decoupling of agricultural subsidies and the reduction of the amount of subsidies to irrigated land underlie the observed reduction of nitrates concentration. Measures of irrigation modernization and establishment of vulnerable zones to nitrates ameliorate the concentration of nitrates in subbasins showing an increasing trend. However, the effect of nitrates load from upland areas, intensification of biomass and crop prices present a greater weight leading to the final increasing trend in this subbasins group, where annual crops dominate. For suspended solids, there is no clear evidence that decoupling process have influenced negatively or positively. Nevertheless, greater values of subsidies still linked to production, particularly in irrigated regions, lead to increasing erosion rates. Although agricultural production has augmented in the basin and water efficiency in the agricultural sector has improved, the issue of high erosion rates has not yet been properly faced. The water footprint (WF) assessment reveals that for 1 L Spanish olive oil more than 99.5% of the WF is related to the olive fruit production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to other components i.e. bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green WF in rainfed and irrigated systems represents about 72% and 12%, respectively, of the total WF. Blue and grey WFs represent 6% and 10%, respectively. The olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest WF per unit of product. The olive oil production has increased its apparent water productivity from 1997 to 2008 incentivized by growing trade prices, but also did the amount of virtual water exports. In fact, the largest producing areas present high water use efficiency per product and apparent water productivity as well as less nitrates pollution potential, but this enhances the pressure on the available water resources. Increasing groundwater abstractions related to olive oil exports may add further pressure to the already stressed Guadalquivir basin. This shows the need to balance the market forces with the available local resources. Concerning the effects of LULCC on the Upper Turia basin’s streamflow, LULCC play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting larger evapotranspiration rates and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and climate change have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. The research provides insight for strengthening the interdisciplinarity between hydrological and spatial planning, highlighting the need to include the implications of LULCC in future hydrological plans. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

New agri-environmental policies for the sustainability of mountainous olive farming. Evidences from Andalusia, Spain

La sostenibilidad de los sistemas olivareros situados en zonas de pendiente y montaña (SMOPS) en Andalucía se encuentra actualmente amenazada por las elevadas tasas de abandono que afectan a estos sistemas productivos. Así, la consumación de este proceso de abandono, no sólo pondría en peligro a las propias explotaciones, sino a todo el conjunto de bienes y servicios no productivos y al patrimonio cultural generado por este sistema productivo. En este contexto, la búsqueda de alternativas políticas enfocadas a revertir este proceso se erige como una necesidad categórica en aras de garantizar en el largo plazo la sostenibilidad de los olivares de montaña. Esta tesis pretende hacer frente a esta necesidad a través de la construcción de un marco político alternativo para los SMOPS, que permita la integración simultánea de todas las dimensiones que pueden influir en su desarrollo; esto es: el marco político actual, principalmente determinado por la Política Agraria Común (PAC) de la Unión Europea (UE); las preferencias de la sociedad hacia la oferta de bienes y servicios públicos generados por los SMOPS; y las preferencias y voluntad de innovación hacia nuevos manejos y sistemas de gestión de los agricultores y propietarios de las explotaciones. Para ello, se emplea una metodología de investigación mixta, que abarca la realización de cuatro encuestas (personales y online) llevadas a cabo a los agentes o grupos de interés involucrados directa o indirectamente en la gestión de los SMOPS –ciudadanos, agricultores y propietarios y expertos-; una profunda revisión de las herramientas de política agroambiental actuales y posibles alternativas a las mismas; y el desarrollo de nuevas estrategias metodológicas para dotar de mayor precisión y fiabilidad las estimaciones obtenidas a partir del Método del Experimento de Elección (MEE) en el campo de la valoración medioambiental. En general, los resultados muestran que una estrategia de política agroambiental basada en la combinación de los Contratos Territoriales de Zona Rural (CTZR) y el manejo ecológico supondría una mejora en la sostenibilidad de los sistemas olivareros de montaña andaluces, que, al mismo tiempo, propiciaría una mejor consideración de las necesidades y demandas de los agentes implicados en su gestión. Asimismo, los hallazgos obtenidos en esta investigación demandan un cambio de paradigma en los actuales pagos agroambientales, que han de pasar de una estrategia basada en la implementación de acciones, a otra enfocada al logro de objetivos, la cual, en el caso del olivar, se podría centrar en el aumento del secuestro de carbono en el suelo. Desde un punto de vista metodológico, los resultados han contribuido notablemente a mejorar la fiabilidad y precisión de las conclusiones estimadas a partir del MEE, mediante el diseño de un novedoso proceso iterativo para detectar posibles comportamientos inconsistentes por parte de los entrevistados con respecto a su máxima Disposición al Pago (DAP) para lograr la situación considerada como “óptima” en los olivares ecológicos de montaña andaluces. En líneas generales, el actual marco institucional favorece la puesta en práctica de la mayoría de las estrategias propuestas en esta tesis; sin embargo son necesarios mayores esfuerzos para reconducir los actuales Pagos Agroambientales y Climáticos de la PAC, hacia una estrategia de política agroambiental adaptada a las necesidades y requisitos del territorio en el que se aplica, enfocada al logro de objetivos y que sea capaz de integrar y coordinar al conjunto de agentes y grupos de interés involucrados -directa o indirectamente- en la gestión de los olivares de montaña. En este contexto, se espera que la puesta en práctica de nuevas estructuras y acuerdos de gobernanza territorial juegue un importante papel en el desarrollo de una política agroambiental realmente adaptada a las necesidades de los sistemas olivareros de montaña andaluces. ABSTRACT The long-term sustainability of Andalusian sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) is currently threatened by the high abandonment rates that affect these production systems. The effective occurrence of this abandonment process is indeed menacing not only farms themselves, but also the wide array of public goods and services provided by SMOPS and the cultural heritage held by this production system. The search of policy alternatives aimed at tackling this process is thus a central necessity. This thesis aims to undertake this necessity by building an alternative policy framework for SMOPS that simultaneously integrates the several dimensions that are susceptible to influence it, namely: the current policy framework, mainly determined by the European Union’s (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); the social preferences toward the supply of SMOPS’ public goods and services; and farmers’ preferences and willingness to innovate toward new management practices in their farms. For this purpose, we put into practice a mixed-method strategy that combines four face-to-face and online surveys carried out with SMOPS’ stakeholders -including citizens, farmers and experts-; in-depth analysis of current and alternative agrienvironmental policy (AEP) instruments; and the development of novel methodological approaches to advance toward more reliable Discrete Choice Experiment’s (DCE) outcomes in the field of environmental valuation. Overall, results show that a policy strategy based on the combination of Territorial Management Contracts (TMC) and organic management would further enhance Andalusian SMOPS’ sustainability by simultaneously taking into account stakeholders’ demands and needs. Findings also call for paradigm shift of the current action-oriented design of Agri-Environmental-Climate Schemes (AECS), toward a result-based approach, that in the case of olive orchards should particularly be focused on enhancing soil carbon sequestration. From a methodological perspective, results have contributed to improve the accuracy and feasibility of DCE outcomes by designing a novel and iterative procedure focused in ascertaining respondents’ inconsistent behaviour with respect to their stated maximum WTP for the attainment of an ideal situation to be achieved in organic Andalusian SMOPS. Generally, the present institutional framework favours the implementation of the main policy strategies proposed in this thesis, albeit further efforts are required to better conduct current CAP’s agri-environmental instruments toward a territorially targeted result-oriented strategy capable to integrate and coordinate the whole set of stakeholders involved in the management of SMOPS. In this regard, alternative governance structures and arrangements are expected to play a major role on the process of tackling SMOPS’ agri-environmental policy challenge.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Fuzzy control of a water pump for an agricultural plant growth system

At the present time there is a high pressure toward the improvement of all the production processes. Those improvements can be sensed in several directions in particular those that involve energy efficiency. The definition of tight energy efficiency improvement policies is transversal to several operational areas ranging from industry to public services. As can be expected, agricultural processes are not immune to this tendency. This statement takes more severe contours when dealing with indoor productions where it is required to artificially control the climate inside the building or a partial growing zone. Regarding the latter, this paper presents an innovative system that improves energy efficiency of a trees growing platform. This new system requires the control of both a water pump and a gas heating system based on information provided by an array of sensors. In order to do this, a multi-input, multi-output regulator was implemented by means of a Fuzzy logic control strategy. Presented results show that it is possible to simultaneously keep track of the desired growing temperature set-point while maintaining actuators stress within an acceptable range.

Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Report No. 4, March 2013

The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the SEMCs’ agricultural sector, with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU, productivity dynamics and their determinants. Second, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the SEMCs’ agriculture sector: animal products, fruit and vegetables, sugar and edible oils, cereals, fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean – one global player, the EU-Mediterranean area under threat and the EU and SEMCs as regional players on the global stage.

The Valuation of Agricultural Land and the Influence of Government Payments. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 10, December 2011

This study gives an overview of the theoretical foundations, empirical procedures and derived results of the literature identifying determinants of land prices. Special attention is given to the effects of different government support policies on land prices. Since almost all empirical studies on the determination of land prices refer either to the net present value method or the hedonic pricing approach as a theoretical basis, a short review of these models is provided. While the two approaches have different theoretical bases, their empirical implementation converges. Empirical studies use a broad range of variables to explain land values and we systematise those into six categories. In order to investigate the influence of different measures of government support on land prices, a meta-regression analysis is carried out. Our results reveal a significantly higher rate of capitalisation for decoupled direct payments and a significantly lower rate of capitalisation for agri-environmental payments, as compared to the rest of government support. Furthermore, the results show that taking theoretically consistent land rents (returns to land) and including non-agricultural variables like urban pressure in the regression implies lower elasticities of capitalisation. In addition, we find a significant influence of the land type, the data type and estimation techniques on the capitalisation rate.

Institutional Factors Affecting Agricultural Land Markets. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 16, February 2012

This paper analyses the main institutional factors affecting the rental and sales markets for agricultural land. Particular attention is paid to the effects of the common agricultural policy on land markets, and more specifically the underlying mechanism through which agricultural subsidies are capitalised into land values and farmland rents. This paper also provides a broad overview of the empirical studies that estimate the impact of agricultural support policies on land rents and land prices. Various other fundamental factors that affect agricultural land markets are discussed, such as land market institutions and regulations, transaction costs, credit market constraints and levels of profitability, the legal means of contract enforcement and land use alternatives.

Farms are growing larger : some relationships to individual farm planning, community development, national farm policies /

Cover title.

Sustainable agricultural production:an investigation in Brazilian semi-arid livestock farms

This paper investigates the environmental sustainability and competitiveness perceptions of small farmers in a region in northern Brazil. The main data collection instruments included a survey questionnaire and an analysis of the region's strategic plan. In total, ninety-nine goat and sheep breeding farmers were surveyed. Data analysis methods included descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and chi-squared tests. The main results relate to the impact of education, land size, and location on the farmers' perceptions of competitiveness and environmental issues. Farmers with longer periods of education have higher perception scores about business competitiveness and environmental sustainability than those with less formal education. Farmers who are working larger land areas also have higher scores than those with smaller farms. Lastly, location can yield factors that impact on farmers' perceptions. In our study, farmers located in Angicos and Lajes had higher perception scores than Pedro Avelino and Afonso Bezerra, despite the geographical proximity of these municipalities. On the other hand, three other profile variables did not impact on farmers' perceptions, namely: family income, dairy production volume, and associative condition. The authors believe the results and insights can be extended to livestock farming in other developing countries and contribute generally to fostering effective sustainable development policies, mainly in the agribusiness sector. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.