992 resultados para Age-structured model
Resumo:
Gas is trapped in polar ice sheets at ~50–120 m below the surface and is therefore younger than the surrounding ice. Firn densification models are used to evaluate this ice age-gas age difference (Δage) in the past. However, such models need to be validated by data, in particular for periods colder than present day on the East Antarctic plateau. Here we bring new constraints to test a firn densification model applied to the EPICA Dome C (EDC) site for the last 50 kyr, by linking the EDC ice core to the EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice core, both in the ice phase (using volcanic horizons) and in the gas phase (using rapid methane variations). We also use the structured 10Be peak, occurring 41 kyr before present (BP) and due to the low geomagnetic field associated with the Laschamp event, to experimentally estimate the Δage during this event. Our results seem to reveal an overestimate of the Δage by the firn densification model during the last glacial period at EDC. Tests with different accumulation rates and temperature scenarios do not entirely resolve this discrepancy. Although the exact reasons for the Δage overestimate at the two EPICA sites remain unknown at this stage, we conclude that current densification model simulations have deficits under glacial climatic conditions. Whatever the cause of the Δage overestimate, our finding suggests that the phase relationship between CO2 and EDC temperature previously inferred for the start of the last deglaciation (lag of CO2 by 800±600 yr) seems to be overestimated.
Resumo:
Transport of radioactive iodide 131I− in a structured clay loam soil under maize in a final growing phase was monitored during five consecutive irrigation experiments under ponding. Each time, 27 mm of water were applied. The water of the second experiment was spiked with 200 MBq of 131I− tracer. Its activity was monitored as functions of depth and time with Geiger-Müller (G-M) detectors in 11 vertically installed access tubes. The aim of the study was to widen our current knowledge of water and solute transport in unsaturated soil under different agriculturally cultivated settings. It was supposed that the change in 131I− activity (or counting rate) is proportional to the change in soil water content. Rapid increase followed by a gradual decrease in 131I− activity occurred at all depths and was attributed to preferential flow. The iodide transport through structured soil profile was simulated by the HYDRUS 1D model. The model predicted relatively deep percolation of iodide within a short time, in a good agreement with the observed vertical iodide distribution in soil. We found that the top 30 cm of the soil profile is the most vulnerable layer in terms of water and solute movement, which is the same depth where the root structure of maize can extend.
Resumo:
Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).
Resumo:
A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS 14C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300 - 11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c. 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.
Resumo:
Sediment samples from ODP Site 1085 were investigated in order to obtain more information on the initiation and development of the Benguela upwelling system during the middle and upper Miocene. In particular, our intent was to establish the causes of the upwelling as well as the response of the upwelling regime to the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Based on changes in the calcareous dinoflagellate cyst association, we found an initial increase of the dinoflagellate cyst productivity, probably related to the initiation of upwelling about 11.8 Ma ago. Two distinct increases in cyst productivity in conjunction with temperature decreases of the upper water masses reflect upwelling pulses off Namibia and occur at the end of the Miocene cooling events Mi5 (about 11.5 Ma) and Mi6 (about 10.5 Ma). Both cooling events are associated with an ice volume increase in Antarctica and are thought to have led to an increase in southeasterly winds, possibly causing these two upwelling pulses. We demonstrate a decrease in dinoflagellate cyst productivity and enhanced terrigenous input via the Orange River after the Mi5 event. At about 11.1 Ma, the dinoflagellate cyst productivity increases again. The polar cyst species Caracomia arctica occurs here for the first time. This implies an influence of subantarctic mode water and therefore a change in the quality of the upwelling water which allowed the Benguela upwelling to develop into modern conditions. From about 10.4 Ma, C. arctica forms a permanent part of the association, pointing to an establishment of the upwelling regime.
Resumo:
Modern thermohaline circulation plays a role in latitudinal heat transport and in deep-ocean ventilation, yet ocean circulation may have functioned differently during past periods of extreme warmth, such as the Cretaceous. The Late Cretaceous (100-65 Ma) was an important period in the evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean, characterized by opening ocean gateways, long-term climatic cooling and the cessation of intermittent periods of anoxia (oceanic anoxic events, OAEs). However, how these phenomena relate to deep-water circulation is unclear. We use a proxy for deep-water mass composition (neodymium isotopes; e-Nd) to show that, at North Atlantic ODP Site 1276, deep waters shifted in the early Campanian (~78-83 Ma) from e-Nd values of ~-7 to values of ~-9, consistent with a change in the style of deep-ocean circulation but >10 Myr after a change in bottom water oxygenation conditions. A similar, but more poorly dated, trend exists in e-Nd data from DSDP Site 386. The Campanian e-Nd transition observed in the North Atlantic records is also seen in the South Atlantic and proto-Indian Ocean, implying a widespread and synchronous change in deep-ocean circulation. Although a unique explanation does not exist for the change at present, we favor an interpretation that invokes Late Cretaceous climatic cooling as a driver for the formation of Southern Component Water, which flowed northward from the Southern Ocean and into the North Atlantic and proto-Indian Oceans.