Methods and code for 'classical' age-modelling of radiocarbon sequences.

Age–depth models form the backbone of most palaeoenvironmental studies. However, procedures for constructing chronologies vary between studies, they are usually not explained sufficiently, and some are inadequate for handling calibrated radiocarbon dates. An alternative method based on importance sampling through calibrated dates is proposed. Dedicated R code is presented which works with calibrated radiocarbon as well as other dates, and provides a simple, systematic, transparent, documented and customizable alternative. The code automatically produces age–depth models, enabling exploration of the impacts of different assumptions (e.g., model type, hiatuses, age offsets, outliers, and extrapolation).

A revised age for the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key marker for the Last Glacial Maximum in New Zealand

The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra (KOT) is a key chronostratigraphic marker in terrestrial and marine deposits of the New Zealand (NZ) sector of the southwest Pacific. Erupted early during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the wide distribution of the KOT enables inter-regional alignment of proxy records and facilitates comparison between NZ climatic variations and those from well-dated records elsewhere. We present 22 new radiocarbon ages for the KOT from sites and materials considered optimal for dating, and apply Bayesian statistical methods via OxCal4.1.7 that incorporate stratigraphic information to develop a new age probability model for KOT. The revised calibrated age, ±2 standard deviations, for the eruption of the KOT is 25,360 ± 160 cal yr BP. The age revision provides a basis for refining marine reservoir ages for the LGM in the southwest Pacific.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Calibrated integrated backscatter and myocardial fibrosis in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Objective - The reported association between calibrated integrated backscatter (cIB) and myocardial fibrosis is based on study of patients with dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and extensive (mean 15–34%) fibrosis. Its association with lesser degrees of fibrosis is unknown. We examined the relationship between cIB and myocardial fibrosis in patients with coronary artery disease.

Methods - Myocardial histology was examined in left ventricular epicardial biopsies from 40 patients (29 men and 11 women) undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery, who had preoperative echocardiography with cIB measurement.

Results - Total fibrosis (picrosirius red staining) varied from 0.7% to 4%, and in contrast to previous reports, cIB showed weak inverse associations with total fibrosis (r=−0.32, p=0.047) and interstitial fibrosis (r=−0.34, p=0.03). However, cIB was not significantly associated with other histological parameters, including immunostaining for collagens I and III, the advanced glycation end product (AGE) Nε-(carboxymethyl)lysine (CML) and the receptor for AGEs (RAGE). When biomarkers were examined, cIB was weakly associated with log plasma levels of amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (r=0.34, p=0.03), creatinine (r=0.33, p=0.04) and glomerular filtration rate (r=−0.33, p=0.04), and was more strongly associated with log plasma levels of soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (sVEGFR-1) (r=0.44, p=0.01) and soluble RAGE (r=0.53, p=0.002).

Conclusions - Higher cIB was not a marker of increased myocardial fibrosis in patients with coronary artery disease, but was associated with higher plasma levels of sVEGFR-1 and soluble RAGE. The role of cIB as a non-invasive index of fibrosis in clinical studies of patients without extensive fibrosis is, therefore, questionable.

IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace ImCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than ImCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to ImCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the C-14 age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine 04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).

Cyclamen: time, sea and speciation biogeography using a temporally calibrated phylogeny

Aim The Mediterranean region is a species-rich area with a complex geographical history. Geographical barriers have been removed and restored due to sea level changes and local climatic change. Such barriers have been proposed as a plausible mechanism driving the high levels of speciation and endemism in the Mediterranean basin. This raises the fundamental question: is allopatric isolation the mechanism by which speciation occurs? This study explores the potential driving influence of palaeo-geographical events on the speciation of Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group with most species endemic to the Mediterranean region. Cyclamen species have been shown experimentally to have few genetic barriers to hybridization. Location The Mediterranean region, including northern Africa, extending eastwards to the Black Sea coast. Methods A generic level molecular phylogeny of Myrsinaceae and Primulaceae is constructed, using Bayesian approximation, to produce a secondary age estimate for the stem lineage of Cyclamen. This estimate is used to calibrate temporally an infrageneric phylogeny of Cyclamen, built with nrDNA ITS, cpDNA trnL-F and cpDNA rps16 sequences. A biogeographical analysis of Cyclamen is performed using dispersal-vicariance analysis. Results The emergence of the Cyclamen stem lineage is estimated at 30.1-29.2 Ma, and the crown divergence at 12.9-12.2 Ma. The average age of Cyclamen species is 3.7 Myr. Every pair of sister species have mutually exclusive, allopatric distributions relative to each other. This pattern appears typical of divergence events throughout the evolutionary history of the genus. Main conclusions Geographical barriers, such as the varying levels of the Mediterranean Sea, are the most plausible explanation for speciation events throughout the phylogenetic history of Cyclamen. The genus demonstrates distributional patterns congruent with the temporally reticulate palaeogeography of the Mediterranean region.

Age-related changes in postural control sensory reweighting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A comparison between neutron-fluence measurements using metal-activation monitors and standard glasses calibrated via thin uranium-fission monitors and via ηq method

The two fundamental approaches to fission-track dating involve either an explicit determination of the thermal neutron fluence (φ-method) or a calibration against age standards (ζ-method). The neutron fluence measurements are carried out with metal-activation monitors or with uranium-fission monitors, co-irradiated with the samples. Uranium-fission monitors consist of either a thin mono-atomic) film, or a thick fission source (standard uranium glass) irradiated against a muscovite external track detector. In this work, different techniques for performing neutron-fluence measurements were compared: based on thin-film calibration, based on thick-source calibration, and based on gamma spectrometry of co-irradiated metal monitors (Au, Co). The results suggest that more experiments are needed to make all calibrations consistent, including new measurements of the length of etched induced tracks in mica. Also the standard glass calibration carried out with thin films should be confirmed with a greater number of calibrating irradiations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age of First Dental Visit and Predictors for Oral Healthcare Utilisation in Preschool Children

Purpose: To assess the age the of the first dental visit and the association of self-perceived oral health, socioeconomic and clinical indicators with healthcare utilisation in Brazilian preschool children. Materials and Methods: An epidemiological survey with 455 5- to 59-month-old children was conducted on National Children's Vaccination Day in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Data about age and reasons for the first dental visit, healthcare utilisation, socioeconomic status and self-perceived oral health were collected by means of a parental semi-structured questionnaire. Calibrated examiners evaluated the prevalence of dental caries (WHO) and dental trauma. The assessment of the association used Poisson regression models (prevalence ratio; 95% confidence interval [Cl]). Results: A total of 24.2% (95% Cl: 20.3% to 28.4%) of the study sample had already had a first dental visit. Older children, those with dental caries and dental trauma and whose mothers had a higher level of education were more likely to have gone to the dentist. Children of low socioeconomic status were more likely to have visited public than private healthcare services. The reasons for the first dental visit were associated with clinical indicators of the sample. The distribution of utilisation of the types of oral healthcare services (public or private) varied across the socioeconomic groups. Non-white children with dental caries and dental trauma tended to visit a dentist only for treatment reasons. Conclusion: Socioeconomic and clinical indicators are associated with the use of dental services, indicating the need for strategies to promote public health and reorientation of services that facilitate dental access for preschool children.

Age of cichlids: new dates for ancient lake fish radiations

Timing divergence events allow us to infer the conditions under which biodiversity has evolved and gain important insights into the mechanisms driving evolution. Cichlid fishes are a model system for studying speciation and adaptive radiation, yet, we have lacked reliable timescales for their evolution. Phylogenetic reconstructions are consistent with cichlid origins prior to Gondwanan landmass fragmentation 121-165 MYA, considerably earlier than the first known fossil cichlids (Eocene). We examined the timing of cichlid evolution using a relaxed molecular clock calibrated with geological estimates for the ages of 1) Gondwanan fragmentation and 2) cichlid fossils. Timescales of cichlid evolution derived from fossil-dated phylogenies of other bony fishes most closely matched those suggested by Gondwanan breakup calibrations, suggesting the Eocene origins and marine dispersal implied by the cichlid fossil record may be due to its incompleteness. Using Gondwanan calibrations, we found accumulation of genetic diversity within the radiating lineages of the African Lakes Malawi, Victoria and Barombi Mbo, and Palaeolake Makgadikgadi began around or after the time of lake basin formation. These calibrations also suggest Lake Tanganyika was colonized independently by the major radiating cichlid tribes that then began to accumulate genetic diversity thereafter. These results contrast with the widely accepted theory that diversification into major lineages took place within the Tanganyika basin. Together, this evidence suggests that ancient lake habitats have played a key role in generating and maintaining diversity within radiating lineages and also that lakes may have captured preexisting cichlid diversity from multiple sources from which adaptive radiations have evolved.

Planktonic and benthic stables Isotopes, age model and carbon analysis of HUD91/039 from the northernmost Baffin Bay

A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS 14C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300 - 11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c. 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.

Age determination and grain size distribution of sediment core GeoB3375-1

The palaeoclimatic conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of southern South America and especially latitudinal shifts of the southern westerly wind belt are still discussed controversially. Longer palaeoclimatic records covering the Late Quaternary are rare. A particularly sensitive area to Late Quaternary climatic changes is the Norte Chico, northern Chile, because of its extreme climatic gradients. Small shifts of the present climatic zonation could cause significant variations of the terrestrial sedimentary environment which would be recorded in marine terrigenous sediments. To unveil the history of shifting climatic zones in northern Chile, we present a sedimentological study of a marine sediment core (GeoB 3375-1) from the continental slope off the Norte Chico (27.5°S). Sedimentological investigations include bulk- and silt grain-size determinations by sieving, Atterberg separation, and detailed SediGraph analyses. Additionally, clay mineralogical parameters were obtained by X-ray diffraction methods. The 14C-dated core, covering the time span from approximately 10,000 to 120,000 cal. yr B.P., consists of hemipelagic sediments. Terrigenous sedimentological parameters reveal a strong cyclicity, which is interpreted in terms of variations of sediment provenance, modifications of the terrestrial weathering regimes, and modes of sediment input to the ocean. These interpretations imply cyclic variations between comparatively arid climates and more humid conditions with seasonal precipitation for northern Chile (27.5°S) through the Late Quaternary. The cyclicity of the terrigenous sediment parameters is strongly dominated by precessional cycles. For the palaeoclimatic signal, this means that more humid conditions coincide with maxima of the precession index, as e.g. during the LGM. Higher seasonal precipitation for this part of Chile is most likely derived from frontal winter rain of the Southern Westerlies. Thus, the data presented here favour not only an equatorward shift of this atmospheric circulation system during the LGM, but also precession-controlled latitudinal movements throughout the Late Quaternary. Precessional forcing of latitudinal movements of the westerly atmospheric circulation system may be conceivable through teleconnections to the Northern Hemisphere monsoonal system in the Atlantic Ocean region.

Age determination of ODP Hole 145-887

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were significantly lower during glacial periods than during intervening interglacial periods, but the mechanisms responsible for this difference remain uncertain. Many recent explanations call on greater carbon storage in a poorly ventilated deep ocean during glacial periods (Trancois et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/40073; Toggweiler, 1999, doi:10.1029/1999PA900033; Stephens and Keeling, 2000, doi:10.1038/35004556; Marchitto et al., 2007, doi:10.1126/science.1138679; Sigman and Boyle, 2000, doi:10.1038/35038000), but direct evidence regarding the ventilation and respired carbon content of the glacial deep ocean is sparse and often equivocal (Broecker et al., 2004, doi:10.1126/science.1102293). Here we present sedimentary geochemical records from sites spanning the deep subarctic Pacific that -together with previously published results (Keigwin, 1998, doi:10.1029/98PA00874)- show that a poorly ventilated water mass containing a high concentration of respired carbon dioxide occupied the North Pacific abyss during the Last Glacial Maximum. Despite an inferred increase in deep Southern Ocean ventilation during the first step of the deglaciation (18,000-15,000 years ago) (Marchitto et al., 2007, doi:10.1126/science.1138679; Monnin et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.112), we find no evidence for improved ventilation in the abyssal subarctic Pacific until a rapid transition ~14,600 years ago: this change was accompanied by an acceleration of export production from the surface waters above but only a small increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (Monnin et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.112). We speculate that these changes were mechanistically linked to a roughly coeval increase in deep water formation in the North Atlantic (Robinson et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1114832; Skinner nd Shackleton, 2004, doi:10.1029/2003PA000983; McManus et al., 2004, doi:10.1038/nature02494), which flushed respired carbon dioxide from northern abyssal waters, but also increased the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean, leading to greater carbon dioxide sequestration at mid-depths and stalling the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with hypotheses invoking a deglacial flushing of respired carbon dioxide from an isolated, deep ocean reservoir periods (Trancois et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/40073; Toggweiler, 1999, doi:10.1029/1999PA900033; Stephens and Keeling, 2000, doi:10.1038/35004556; Marchitto et al., 2007, doi:10.1126/science.1138679; Sigman and Boyle, 2000, doi:10.1038/35038000; Boyle, 1988, doi:10.1038/331055a0), but suggest that the reservoir may have been released in stages, as vigorous deep water ventilation switched between North Atlantic and Southern Ocean source regions.

Age determination and Heinrich Events in sediment cores SU90-08 and KET80-03

The Mediterranean Sea hydrology at the time of the Heinrich formation in the North Atlantic Ocean was analyzed by comparing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and oxygen isotope composition of seawater (dw) changes during the past 75 kyr in two marine cores. These were compared to the palynological variations derived in the Mediterranean Sea core. During the last glacial the two oceanic SST records show similar and synchronous patterns, with several long-term cooling periods, ending by abrupt SST increases. At the time of the Heinrich events, cold SSTs and low salinity prevailed in the Mediterranean Sea. The freshwater budget was similar to the modern one, permitting the presence of a mixed forest on the Mediterranean borderlands. The post-Heinrich periods are marked by a freshwater budget decrease, limiting oak and fir tree growth in the Mediterranean region. Increase of precipitation or reduction of evaporation is observed before the Heinrich episode, and is associated with a well-developed mixed Mediterranean forest.

Age determination, planktic foraminifera and stable istopes of sediment core MSM05/5_712-2

A sediment core from the West Spitsbergen continental margin was studied to reconstruct climate and paleoceanographic variability during the last ~9 ka in the eastern Fram Strait. Our multiproxy evidence suggests that the establishment of the modern oceanographic configuration in the eastern Fram Strait occurred stepwise, in response to the postglacial sea-level rise and the related onset of modern sea-ice production on the shallow Siberian shelves. The late Early and Mid Holocene interval (9 to 5 ka) was generally characterized by relatively unstable conditions. High abundance of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalita quinqueloba implies strong intensity of Atlantic Water (AW) inflow with high productivity and/or high AW temperatures, resulting in a strong heat flux to the Arctic. A series of short-lived cooling events (8.2, 6.9. and 6.1 ka) occurred superimposed on the warm late Early and Mid Holocene conditions. Our proxy data imply that simultaneous to the complete postglacial flooding of Arctic shallow shelves and the initiation of modern sea-ice production, strong advance of polar waters initiated modern oceanographic conditions in the eastern Fram Strait at ~5.2 ka. The Late Holocene was marked by the dominance of the polar planktic foraminifer species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a significant expansion of sea ice/icebergs, and strong stratification of the water column. Although planktic foraminiferal assemblages as well as sea surface and subsurface temperatures suggest a return of slightly strengthened advection of subsurface Atlantic Water after 3 ka, a relatively stable cold-water layer prevailed at the sea surface and the study site was probably located within the seasonally fluctuating marginal ice zone during the Neoglacial period.