Cost of an emerging epidemic: an economic analysis of atrial fibrillation in the UK

Objective: To evaluate the cost of atrial fibrillation (AF) to health and social services in the UK in 1995 and, based on epidemiological trends, to project this estimate to 2000. Design, setting, and main outcome measures: Contemporary estimates of health care activity related to AF were applied to the whole population of the UK on an age and sex specific basis for the year 1995. The activities considered ( and costs calculated) were hospital admissions, outpatient consultations, general practice consultations, and drug treatment ( including the cost of monitoring anticoagulant treatment). By adjusting for the progressive aging of the British population and related increases in hospital admissions, the cost of AF was also projected to the year 2000. Results: There were 534 000 people with AF in the UK during 1995. The direct'' cost of health care for these patients was pound 244 million (similar toE350 million) or 0.62% of total National Health Service ( NHS) expenditure. Hospitalisations and drug prescriptions accounted for 50% and 20% of this expenditure, respectively. Long term nursing home care after hospital admission cost an additional pound46.4 million (similar toE66 million). The direct cost of AF rose to pound459 million (similar toE655 million) in 2000, equivalent to 0.97% of total NHS expenditure based on 1995 figures. Nursing home costs rose to pound111 million (similar toE160 million). Conclusions: AF is an extremely costly public health problem.

Is pulse palpation helpful in detecting atrial fibrillation? A systematic review

Background Atrial fibrillation in the elderly is common and potentially life threatening. The classical sign of atrial fibrillation is an irregularly irregular pulse. Objective The objective of this research was to determine the accuracy of pulse palpation to detect atrial fibrillation. Methods We searched Medline, EMBASE, and the reference lists of review articles for studies that compared pulse palpation with the electrocardiogram (ECG) diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. Two reviewers independently assessed the search results to determine the eligibility of studies, extracted data, and assessed the quality of the studies. Results We identified 3 studies (2385 patients) that compared pulse palpation with ECG. The estimated sensitivity of pulse palpation ranged from 91% to 100%, while specificity ranged from 70% to 77%. Pooled sensitivity was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 84%-97%) and pooled specificity was 72% (95% CI 69%-75%). The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 3.39, while the pooled negative likelihood ratio was 0.10. Conclusions Pulse palpation has a high sensitivity but relatively low specificity for atrial fibrillation. It is therefore useful for ruling out atrial fibrillation. It may also be a useful screen to apply opportunistically for previously undetected atrial fibrillation. Assuming a prevalence of 3% for undetected atrial fibrillation in patients older than 65 years, and given the test's sensitivity and specificity, opportunistic pulse palpation in this age group would detect an irregular pulse in 30% of screened patients, requiring further testing with ECG. Among screened patients, 0.2% would have atrial fibrillation undetected with pulse palpation.

Prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

We present a novel method for prediction of the onset of a spontaneous (paroxysmal) atrial fibrilation episode by representing the electrocardiograph (ECG) output as two time series corresponding to the interbeat intervals and the lengths of the atrial component of the ECG. We will then show how different entropy measures can be calulated from both of these series and then combined in a neural network trained using the Bayesian evidence procedure to form and effective predictive classifier.

TRial of an Educational intervention on patients' knowledge of Atrial fibrillation and anticoagulant therapy, INR control, and outcome of Treatment with warfarin (TREAT)

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with a high risk of stroke are recommended anticoagulation with warfarin. However, the benefit of warfarin is dependent upon time spent within the target therapeutic range (TTR) of their international normalised ratio (INR) (2.0 to 3.0). AF patients possess limited knowledge of their disease and warfarin treatment and this can impact on INR control. Education can improve patients' understanding of warfarin therapy and factors which affect INR control. Methods/Design Randomised controlled trial of an intensive educational intervention will consist of group sessions (between 2-8 patients) containing standardised information about the risks and benefits associated with OAC therapy, lifestyle interactions and the importance of monitoring and control of their International Normalised Ratio (INR). Information will be presented within an 'expert-patient' focussed DVD, revised educational booklet and patient worksheets. 200 warfarin-naïve patients who are eligible for warfarin will be randomised to either the intervention or usual care groups. All patients must have ECG-documented AF and be eligible for warfarin (according to the NICE AF guidelines). Exclusion criteria include: aged < 18 years old, contraindication(s) to warfarin, history of warfarin USE, valvular heart disease, cognitive impairment, are unable to speak/read English and disease likely to cause death within 12 months. Primary endpoint is time spent in TTR. Secondary endpoints include measures of quality of life (AF-QoL-18), anxiety and depression (HADS), knowledge of AF and anticoagulation, beliefs about medication (BMQ) and illness representations (IPQ-R). Clinical outcomes, including bleeding, stroke and interruption to anticoagulation will be recorded. All outcome measures will be assessed at baseline and 1, 2, 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Discussion More data is needed on the clinical benefit of educational intervention with AF patients receiving warfarin. Trial registration ISRCTN93952605

Advancing age and bleeding risk are the strongest barriers to anticoagulant prescription in atrial fibrillation

In clinical practice many patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at high thromboembolic risk fail to receive adequate oral anticoagulation (OAC) [1]. The complex management of anticoagulant therapy [frequent international normalised ratio (INR) monitoring because of narrow therapeutic window, interaction with food and alcohol, concomitant medications and comorbities], the overestimation of bleeding risk and the underestimation of stroke risk, may partially explain physicians' reluctance to prescribe anticoagulation. In the current issue of Age and Ageing, Pugh and Mead [2] report a systematic review on physicians' attitudes concerning anticoagulant treatment among AF patients. Through surveys (questionnaire, clinical vignette and interview) on hypothetical case scenarios, they have identified the barriers to effective anticoagulant prescription, as follows: increasing age, bleeding risk or previous bleeding, fall risk, co-morbidities (e.g. chronic alcoholism or cognitive impairment) and lack of compliance. In particular, advanced age has been reported as the most striking reason for with-holding anticoagulation, while risk of falls and previous bleeding are also disproportionate barriers to warfarin prescription.

Educational and behavioural interventions for anticoagulant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background Current guidelines recommend oral anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, however anticoagulation control (time in therapeutic range (TTR)) is dependent on many factors. Educational and behavioural interventions may impact on patients’ ability to maintain their International Normalised Ratio (INR) control. Objectives To evaluate the effects on TTR of educational and behavioural interventions for oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) in The Cochrane Library (2012, Issue 7 of 12), MEDLINE Ovid (1950 to week 4 July 2012), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE Ovid (1947 to Week 31 2012), PsycINFO Ovid (1806 to 2012 week 5 July) on 8 August 2012 and CINAHL Plus with Full Text EBSCO (to August 2012) on 9 August 2012. We applied no language restrictions. Selection criteria The primary outcome analysed was TTR. Secondary outcomes included decision conflict (patient's uncertainty in making health-related decisions), percentage of INRs in the therapeutic range, major bleeding, stroke and thromboembolic events, patient knowledge, patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and anxiety. Data collection and analysis The two review authors independently extracted data. Where insufficient data were present to conduct a meta-analysis, effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs) of the included studies were reported. Data were pooled for two outcomes, TTR and decision conflict. Main results Eight trials with a total of 1215 AF patients (number of AF participants included in the individual trials ranging from 14 to 434) were included within the review. Studies included education, decision aids, and self-monitoring plus education. For the primary outcome of TTR, data for the AF participants in two self-monitoring plus education trials were pooled and did not favour self-monitoring plus education or usual care in improving TTR, with a mean difference of 6.31 (95% CI -5.63 to 18.25). For the secondary outcome of decision conflict, data from two decision aid trials favoured usual care over the decision aid in terms of reducing decision conflict, with a mean difference of -0.1 (95% CI -0.2 to -0.02). Authors' conclusions This review demonstrated that there is insufficient evidence to draw definitive conclusions regarding the impact of educational or behavioural interventions on TTR in AF patients receiving OAT. Thus, more trials are needed to examine the impact of interventions on anticoagulation control in AF patients and the mechanisms by which they are successful. It is also important to explore the psychological implications for patients suffering from this long-term chronic condition.

Patients’ and health professionals’ views and experiences of atrial fibrillation and oral-anticoagulant therapy:a qualitative meta-synthesis

Objective - Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are prescribed oral-anticoagulant (OAC) therapy, often warfarin, to reduce stroke risk. We explored existing qualitative evidence about patients’ and health professionals’ experiences of OAC therapy. Methods - Systematic searches of eight bibliographic databases were conducted. Quality was appraised using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool and data from ten studies were synthesised qualitatively. Results - Four third-order constructs, emerged from the final step in the analysis process: (1) diagnosing AF and the communication of information, (2) deciding on OAC therapy, (3) challenges revolving around patient issues, and (4) healthcare challenges. Synthesis uncovered perspectives that could not be achieved through individual studies. Conclusion - Physicians’ and patients’ experiences present a dichotomy of opinion on decision-making, which requires further exploration and changes in practice. Outcomes of workload pressure on both health professionals and patients should be investigated. The need for on-going support and education to patients and physicians is critical to achieve best practice and treatment adherence. Practice implications - Such research could encourage health professionals to understand and attend better to the needs and concerns of the patient. Additionally these findings can be used to inform researchers and healthcare providers in developing educational interventions with both patients and health professionals.

Development and trialling of a behavioural intervention for patients with atrial fibrillation initiating oral anticoagulation:the 'treat' study

Purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart arrhythmia and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. Stroke risk is commonly treated with oral anticoagulation (OAC) with a narrow therapeutic range (INR 2.0 to 3.0); which is poorly controlled in practice. Barriers to adherence include poor knowledge, and inaccurate perceptions surrounding illness and medications. Trial registration: ISRCTN93952605. Systematic review: Seven trials of educational, self-monitoring and decision aid interventions were included in a systematic review. Pooled analysis suggested education OR, 95% CI 7.89 (5.54-10.24) and self monitoring OR (95% CI) 5.47(2.55-8.39) significantly improve TTR; whereas decision aids are no more effective in reducing decision conflict than usual care, OR (95% CI) -0.10 (-0.17 to -0.02). Intervention development: The intervention was theoretically-driven (utilising the common sense and beliefs about medication models) and developed with expert patient feedback. Described using behavioural change techniques, the one-off group session included an educational booklet, ‘expert-patient’ focussed DVD, and worksheet. Methods: Ninety seven warfarin-naïve AF patients were randomised to receive the intervention (n=43), or usual care (n=54). The primary endpoint was time within therapeutic range (TTR), secondary endpoints included knowledge, quality of life (AF-QoL-18), beliefs about medication (BMQ), illness perceptions (IPQ-B), and anxiety and depression (HADS). Results: Intervention group had significantly higher TTR than usual care (78.5% vs. 66.7%; p=0.01). Knowledge changed significantly across time (F (3, 47) = 6.4; p<0.01), but not between groups (F (1, 47) = 3.3; p = 0.07). At six months knowledge predicted TTR (r=0.245; p=0.04). Illness concern negatively correlated with TTR (r= - 0.199; p=0.05). General Harm scores at one month predicted TTR (F (1, 72) = 4.08; p=0.048). There were significant differences in emotional representations (F (3, 49) = 3.3 (3, 49); p= 0.03), anxiety (F (3, 46) = 25.2; p<0.01) and depression (F (3, 46) = 37.7; p<0.01) across time. Conclusion: A theory-driven educational intervention can improve TTR in AF patients and potentially reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Improving education provision for AF patients is essential to ensure efficacious treatment.

Patients’ and physicians’ experiences of atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation therapy:a qualitative journey

Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) however it is often underutilized and sometimes refused by patients. This programme of work included a meta-synthesis and two inter-linking studies aiming to explore patients’ and physicians’ experiences of AF and OAC. Methods: A meta-synthesis of qualitative evidence was conducted which informed the empirical work. Semi-structured individual interviews were utilised. Study 1: Three AF patient sub-groups were interviewed; accepted (n=4), refused (n=4), or discontinued (n=3) warfarin. Study 2: Four physician sub-groups (n=4 each group) prescribing OAC to AF patients were interviewed: consultant cardiologists, consultant general physicians, general practitioners and cardiology registrars. Data was analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Results: Study 1: Three over-arching themes comprised patients’ experiences: (1) the initial consultation, (2) life after the consultation, and (3) patients’ reflections. Patients commented on the relief and reassurance experienced during the consultation but they perceived the decision making process mostly led by the physician. Lack of education and take-home materials distributed during the initial consultation was highlighted. Patients who had experienced stroke themselves or were caregivers, were more receptive to education aimed towards stroke risk reduction rather than bleeding risk. Warfarin monitoring was challenging for patients, however some patients perceived it as beneficial as it served to enhance patient-physician relationship. Study 2: Two over-arching themes emerged from physicians’ experiences: (1) communicating information and (2) challenges with OAC prescription for AF. Physicians’ approach to the consultation style shifted through a continuum of compliance-adherence-concordance during the consultation. They aimed for concordance, however challenges such as time and the perceived patient trust in them as the expert, led to physicians adopting a paternalistic approach. Physicians also pointed out challenges associated with guideline adherence and the need to adopt a multi-disciplinary approach, where other health professionals could provide on-going education. Conclusion: This programme of work has illustrated the benefit of taking an in depth phenomenological approach to understanding the lived experience of the physician-patient consultation. Together with the meta-synthesis, this work has strengthened the evidence base and demonstrated that there is a need to target patients' and physicians' ability to communicate with each other in a comprehensible way.