Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections

Structural differences among models account for much of the uncertainty in projected climate changes, at least until the mid-twenty-first century. Recent observations encompass too limited a range of climate variability to provide a robust test of the ability to simulate climate changes. Past climate changes provide a unique opportunity for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. Palaeo-evaluation has shown that the large-scale changes seen in twenty-first-century projections, including enhanced land–sea temperature contrast, latitudinal amplification, changes in temperature seasonality and scaling of precipitation with temperature, are likely to be realistic. Although models generally simulate changes in large-scale circulation sufficiently well to shift regional climates in the right direction, they often do not predict the correct magnitude of these changes. Differences in performance are only weakly related to modern-day biases or climate sensitivity, and more sophisticated models are not better at simulating climate changes. Although models correctly capture the broad patterns of climate change, improvements are required to produce reliable regional projections.

Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach

Precipitation over western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the 21st century. These changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large-scale circulation, e.g., jet stream, cyclone activity, and blocking frequencies. A novel weather typing within the sector (30°W–10°E, 25–70°N) is used for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes. A k-means clustering on daily mean sea level pressure was undertaken for ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2014). Eight weather types are identified: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1, and B2 (blocking-like types). Their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large-scale precipitation-driving mechanisms. Simulations with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for recent climate conditions show biases in reproducing the observed seasonality of weather types. In particular, an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow is identified. Considering projections following the (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP8.5 scenario over 2071–2100, the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2, and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (−3%). These changes explain most of the precipitation projections over WE. However, a weather type-independent background signal is identified (increase/decrease in precipitation over northern/southern WE), suggesting modifications in precipitation-generating processes and/or model inability to accurately simulate these processes. Despite these caveats in the precipitation scenarios for WE, which must be duly taken into account, our approach permits a better understanding of the projected trends for precipitation over WE.

Forebrain projections to brainstem nuclei involved in the control of mandibular movements in rats

Mandibular movements occur through the triggering of trigeminal motoneurons. Aberrant movements by orofacial muscles are characteristic of orofacial motor disorders, such as nocturnal bruxism (clenching or grinding of the dentition during sleep). Previous studies have suggested that autonomic changes occur during bruxism episodes. Although it is known that emotional responses increase jaw movement, the brain pathways linking forebrain limbic nuclei and the trigeminal motor nucleus remain unclear. Here we show that neurons in the lateral hypothalamic area, in the central nucleus of the amygdala, and in the parasubthalamic nucleus, project to the trigeminal motor nucleus or to reticular regions around the motor nucleus (Regio h) and in the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus. We observed orexin co-expression in neurons projecting from the lateral hypothalamic area to the trigeminal motor nucleus. In the central nucleus of the amygdala, neurons projecting to the trigeminal motor nucleus are innervated by corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. We also observed that the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus receives dense innervation from orexin and corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. Therefore, forebrain nuclei related to autonomic control and stress responses might influence the activity of trigeminal motor neurons and consequently play a role in the physiopathology of nocturnal bruxism.

Melanin-concentrating hormone projections to areas involved in somatomotor responses

The lateral hypothalamic area (LHA) participates in the integration of sensory information and somatomotor responses associated with hunger and thirst. Although the LHA is neurochemically heterogeneous, a particularly high number of cells express melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH), which has been reported to play a role in energy homeostasis. Treatment with MCH increases food intake, and MCH mRNA is overexpressed in leptin-deficient (ob/ob) mice. Mice lacking both MCH and leptin present reduced body fat, mainly due to increased resting energy expenditure and locomotor activity. Dense MCH innervation of the cerebral motor cortex (MCx) and the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPT), both related to motor function, has been reported. Therefore, we postulated that a specific group of MCH neurons project to these areas. To investigate our hypothesis, we injected retrograde tracers into the MCx and the PPT of rats, combined with immunohistochemistry. We found that 25% of the LHA neurons projecting to the PPT were immunoreactive for MCH, and that 75% of the LHA neurons projecting to the MCx also contained MCH. Few MCH neurons were found to send collaterals to both areas. We also found that 15% of the incerto-hypothalamic neurons projecting to the PPT expressed MCH immunoreactivity. Those neurons preferentially innervated the rostral PPT. In addition, we observed that the MCH neurons express glutamic acid decarboxylase mRNA, a gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) synthesizing enzyme. We postulate that MCH/GABA neurons are involved in the inhibitory modulation of the innervated areas, decreasing motor activity in states of negative energy balance. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

THE ROLE OF THE SUPERIOR COLLICULUS IN PREDATORY HUNTING

Combining the results of behavioral, neuronal immediate early gene activation, lesion and neuroanatomical experiments, we have presently investigated the role of the superior colliculus (SC) in predatory hunting. First, we have shown that insect hunting is associated with a characteristic large increase in Fos expression in the lateral part of the intermediate gray layer of the SC (Wig). Next, we have shown that animals with bilateral NMDA lesions of the lateral parts of the SC presented a significant delay in starting to chase the prey and longer periods engaged in other activities than predatory hunting. They also showed a clear deficit to orient themselves toward the moving prey and lost the stereotyped sequence of actions seen for capturing, holding and killing the prey. Our Phaseolus vulgaris-leucoagglutinin analysis revealed that the lateral SCig, besides providing the well-documented descending crossed pathway to premotor sites in brainstem and spinal cord, projects to a number of midbrain and diencephalic sites likely to influence key functions in the context of the predatory behavior, such as general levels of arousal, motivational level to hunt or forage, behavioral planning, appropriate selection of the basal ganglia motor plan to hunt, and motor output of the primary motor cortex. In contrast to the lateral SC lesions, medial SC lesions produced a small deficit in predatory hunting, and compared to what we have seen for the lateral SCig, the medial SCig has a very limited set of projections to thalamic sites related to the control of motor planning or motor output, and provides conspicuous inputs to brainstem sites involved in organizing a wide range of anti-predatory defensive responses. Overall, the present results served to clarify how the different functional domains in the SC may mediate the decision to pursue and hunt a prey or escape from a predator. (C) 2010 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ablation of primary afferent neurons by neonatal capsaicin treatment reduces the susceptibility of the portal hypertensive gastric mucosa to ethanol-induced injury in cirrhotic rats

Primary sensory afferent neurons modulate the hyperdynamic circulation in Cirrhotic rats with portal hypertension.The stomach of cirrhotic rats is prone to damage induced by ethanol, a phenomenon associated with reduced gastric hyperemic response to acid-back diffusion. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of ablation of capsaicin-sensitive neurons and the tachykinin NK(1) receptor antagonist A5330 on the susceptibility of the portal hypertensive gastric mucosa, to ethanol-induced injury and its effects on gastric cyclooxygenase (COX) and nitric oxide synthase (NOS) mRNA expression. Capsaicin was administered to neonatal, male, Wistar rats and the animals were allowed to grow. Cirrhosis was then induced by bile duct ligation in adult rats while controls had sham operation. Ethanol-induced gastric damage was assessed using ex vivo gastric chamber experiments. Gastric blood flow was measured as well as COX/NOS mRNA expression. Topical application of ethanol produced significant gastric damage in cirrhotic rats compared to controls, which was reversed in capsaicin- and A5330-treated animals. Mean arterial and portal pressure was normalized in capsaicin-treated cirrhotic rats. Capsaicin and A5330 administration restored gastric blood flow responses to topical application of ethanol followed by acid in cirrhotic rats. Differential COX and NOS mRNA expression was noted in bile duct ligated rats relative to controls. Capsaicin treatment significantly modified gastric eNOS/iNOS/COX-2 mRNA expression in cirrhotic rats. Capsaicin-sensitive neurons modulate the susceptibility of the portal hypertensive gastric mucosa to injury induced by ethanol via tachykinin NK(1) receptors and signalling of prostaglandin and NO production/release. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Organization of ventral tegmental area projections to the ventral tegmental area-nigral complex in the rat

The ventral tegmental area (VTA) is a nodal link in reward circuitry. Based on its striatal output, it has been subdivided in a caudomedial part which targets the ventromedial striatum, and a lateral part which targets the ventrolateral striatum [Ikemoto S (2007) Dopamine reward circuitry: two projection systems from the ventral midbrain to the nucleus accumbens-olfactory tubercle complex. Brain Res Rev 56:27-78]. Whether these two VTA parts are interconnected and to what extent the VTA innervates the substantia nigra compacta (SNc) and retrorubral nucleus (RR) are critical issues for understanding information processing in the basal ganglia. Here, VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex were examined in rats, using Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin (PHA-L) as anterograde tracer. The results show that the dorsolateral VTA projects to itself, as well as to the dorsal tier of the SNc and RR, largely avoiding the caudomedial VTA. The ventrolateral VTA innervates mainly the interfascicular nucleus. The components of the caudomedial VTA (the interfascicular, paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) are connected with each other. In addition, the caudomedial VTA (especially the paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) innervates the lateral VTA, and, to a lesser degree, the SNc and RR. The caudal pole of the VTA sends robust, bilateral projections to virtually all the VTA-nigral complex, which terminate in the dorsal and ventral tiers. Modest inputs from the medial supramammillary nucleus to ventromedial parts of the VTA-nigral complex were also identified. In double-immunostained sections, PHA-L-labeled varicosities were sometimes found apposed to tyrosine hydroxylase-positive neurons in the ventral mesencephalon. Overall, the results underscore that VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex are substantial and topically organized. In general, these projections, like the spiralated striato-nigro-striatal loops, display a medial-to-lateral organization. This anatomical arrangement conceivably permits the ventromedial striatum to influence the activity of the lateral striatum. The caudal pole of the VTA appears to be a critical site for a global recruitment of the mesotelencephalic system. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Exploring Multidimensional Data with 3D Projections

Visualization of high-dimensional data requires a mapping to a visual space. Whenever the goal is to preserve similarity relations a frequent strategy is to use 2D projections, which afford intuitive interactive exploration, e. g., by users locating and selecting groups and gradually drilling down to individual objects. In this paper, we propose a framework for projecting high-dimensional data to 3D visual spaces, based on a generalization of the Least-Square Projection (LSP). We compare projections to 2D and 3D visual spaces both quantitatively and through a user study considering certain exploration tasks. The quantitative analysis confirms that 3D projections outperform 2D projections in terms of precision. The user study indicates that certain tasks can be more reliably and confidently answered with 3D projections. Nonetheless, as 3D projections are displayed on 2D screens, interaction is more difficult. Therefore, we incorporate suitable interaction functionalities into a framework that supports 3D transformations, predefined optimal 2D views, coordinated 2D and 3D views, and hierarchical 3D cluster definition and exploration. For visually encoding data clusters in a 3D setup, we employ color coding of projected data points as well as four types of surface renderings. A second user study evaluates the suitability of these visual encodings. Several examples illustrate the framework`s applicability for both visual exploration of multidimensional abstract (non-spatial) data as well as the feature space of multi-variate spatial data.