Transportation theory and planning

The aim of this research is to analyze the transport system and its subcomponents in order to highlight which are the design tools for physical and/or organizational projects related to transport supply systems. A characteristic of the transport systems is that the change of their structures can recoil on several entities, groups of entities, which constitute the community. The construction of a new infrastructure can modify both the transport service characteristic for all the user of the entire network; for example, the construction of a transportation infrastructure can change not only the transport service characteristics for the users of the entire network in which it is part of, but also it produces economical, social, and environmental effects. Therefore, the interventions or the improvements choices must be performed using a rational decision making approach. This approach requires that these choices are taken through the quantitative evaluation of the different effects caused by the different intervention plans. This approach becomes even more necessary when the decisions are taken in behalf of the community. Then, in order to understand how to develop a planning process in Transportation I will firstly analyze the transport system and the mathematical models used to describe it: these models provide us significant indicators which can be used to evaluate the effects of possible interventions. In conclusion, I will move on the topics related to the transport planning, analyzing the planning process, and the variables that have to be considered to perform a feasibility analysis or to compare different alternatives. In conclusion I will perform a preliminary analysis of a new transit system which is planned to be developed in New York City.

Design and development of the new composite-material mainplane of the Dallara T12 race car

Abstract (US) Composite material components design and production techniques are discussed in the present graduation paper. In particular, this paper covers the design process and the production process of a carbon-fiber composite material component for a high performance car, more specifically, the Dallara T12 race car. This graduation paper is split in two. After a brief introduction on existing composite materials (their origins and applications), the first part of the present paper covers the main theoretical concepts behind the design of composite material components: particular focus will be given to carbon-fiber composites. The second part of the present paper covers the whole design and production process that the candidate carried out to create the new front mainplane of the Dallara T12 race car. This graduation paper is the result of a six-months-long internship that the candidate conducted as Design Office Trainee inside Dallara Automobili S.p.A. Abstract (ITA) La presente tesi di laurea discute le metodologie progettuali e produttive legate alla realizzazione di un componente in materiale composito. Nello specifico, viene discussa la progettazione e la produzione di un componente in fibra di carbonio destinato ad una vettura da competizione. La vettura in esame è la Dallara T12. Il lavoro è diviso in due parti. Nella prima parte, dopo una breve introduzione sull’origine e le tipologie di materiali compositi esistenti, vengono trattati i concetti teorici fondamentali su cui si basa la progettazione di generici componenti in materiale composito, con particolare riguardo ai materiali in fibra di carbonio. Nella seconda parte viene discusso tutto il processo produttivo che il candidato ha portato a termine per realizzare il nuovo alettone anteriore della Dallara T12. La presente tesi di laurea è il risultato del lavoro di progettazione che il candidato ha svolto presso l’Ufficio Tecnico di Dallara Automobili S.p.A. nel corso di un tirocinio formativo di sei mesi.

Planck stars: theory and phenomenology

General Relativity (GR) is one of the greatest scientific achievements of the 20th century along with quantum theory. Despite the elegance and the accordance with experimental tests, these two theories appear to be utterly incompatible at fundamental level. Black holes provide a perfect stage to point out these difficulties. Indeed, classical GR fails to describe Nature at small radii, because nothing prevents quantum mechanics from affecting the high curvature zone, and because classical GR becomes ill-defined at r = 0 anyway. Rovelli and Haggard have recently proposed a scenario where a negative quantum pressure at the Planck scales stops and reverts the gravitational collapse, leading to an effective “bounce” and explosion, thus resolving the central singularity. This scenario, called Black Hole Fireworks, has been proposed in a semiclassical framework. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: - Compute the bouncing time by means of a pure quantum computation based on Loop Quantum Gravity; - Extend the known theory to a more realistic scenario, in which the rotation is taken into account by means of the Newman-Janis Algorithm.

Experimental results on gravity driven fully condensing flows in vertical tubes, their agreement with theory, and their differences with shear driven flows' boundary-condition sensitivities

This doctoral thesis presents the experimental results along with a suitable synthesis with computational/theoretical results towards development of a reliable heat transfer correlation for a specific annular condensation flow regime inside a vertical tube. For fully condensing flows of pure vapor (FC-72) inside a vertical cylindrical tube of 6.6 mm diameter and 0.7 m length, the experimental measurements are shown to yield values of average heat transfer co-efficient, and approximate length of full condensation. The experimental conditions cover: mass flux G over a range of 2.9 kg/m2-s ≤ G ≤ 87.7 kg/m2-s, temperature difference ∆T (saturation temperature at the inlet pressure minus the mean condensing surface temperature) of 5 ºC to 45 ºC, and cases for which the length of full condensation xFC is in the range of 0 < xFC < 0.7 m. The range of flow conditions over which there is good agreement (within 15%) with the theory and its modeling assumptions has been identified. Additionally, the ranges of flow conditions for which there are significant discrepancies (between 15 -30% and greater than 30%) with theory have also been identified. The paper also refers to a brief set of key experimental results with regard to sensitivity of the flow to time-varying or quasi-steady (i.e. steady in the mean) impositions of pressure at both the inlet and the outlet. The experimental results support the updated theoretical/computational results that gravity dominated condensing flows do not allow such elliptic impositions.

Characterization of thermal and mechanical properties of polypropylene-based composites for fuel cell bipolar plates and development of educational tools in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies

In this project we developed conductive thermoplastic resins by adding varying amounts of three different carbon fillers: carbon black (CB), synthetic graphite (SG) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNT) to a polypropylene matrix for application as fuel cell bipolar plates. This component of fuel cells provides mechanical support to the stack, circulates the gases that participate in the electrochemical reaction within the fuel cell and allows for removal of the excess heat from the system. The materials fabricated in this work were tested to determine their mechanical and thermal properties. These materials were produced by adding varying amounts of single carbon fillers to a polypropylene matrix (2.5 to 15 wt.% Ketjenblack EC-600 JD carbon black, 10 to 80 wt.% Asbury Carbon's Thermocarb TC-300 synthetic graphite, and 2.5 to 15 wt.% of Hyperion Catalysis International's FIBRILTM multi-walled carbon nanotubes) In addition, composite materials containing combinations of these three fillers were produced. The thermal conductivity results showed an increase in both through-plane and in-plane thermal conductivities, with the largest increase observed for synthetic graphite. The Department of Energy (DOE) had previously set a thermal conductivity goal of 20 W/m·K, which was surpassed by formulations containing 75 wt.% and 80 wt.% SG, yielding in-plane thermal conductivity values of 24.4 W/m·K and 33.6 W/m·K, respectively. In addition, composites containing 2.5 wt.% CB, 65 wt.% SG, and 6 wt.% CNT in PP had an in–plane thermal conductivity of 37 W/m·K. Flexural and tensile tests were conducted. All composite formulations exceeded the flexural strength target of 25 MPa set by DOE. The tensile and flexural modulus of the composites increased with higher concentration of carbon fillers. Carbon black and synthetic graphite caused a decrease in the tensile and flexural strengths of the composites. However, carbon nanotubes increased the composite tensile and flexural strengths. Mathematical models were applied to estimate through-plane and in-plane thermal conductivities of single and multiple filler formulations, and tensile modulus of single-filler formulations. For thermal conductivity, Nielsen's model yielded accurate thermal conductivity values when compared to experimental results obtained through the Flash method. For prediction of tensile modulus Nielsen's model yielded the smallest error between the predicted and experimental values. The second part of this project consisted of the development of a curriculum in Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies to address different educational barriers identified by the Department of Energy. By the creation of new courses and enterprise programs in the areas of fuel cells and the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier, we introduced engineering students to the new technologies, policies and challenges present with this alternative energy. Feedback provided by students participating in these courses and enterprise programs indicate positive acceptance of the different educational tools. Results obtained from a survey applied to students after participating in these courses showed an increase in the knowledge and awareness of energy fundamentals, which indicates the modules developed in this project are effective in introducing students to alternative energy sources.

Plenoptic camera : theory and experimental results

The purpose of this research was to develop a working physical model of the focused plenoptic camera and develop software that can process the measured image intensity, reconstruct this into a full resolution image, and to develop a depth map from its corresponding rendered image. The plenoptic camera is a specialized imaging system designed to acquire spatial, angular, and depth information in a single intensity measurement. This camera can also computationally refocus an image by adjusting the patch size used to reconstruct the image. The published methods have been vague and conflicting, so the motivation behind this research is to decipher the work that has been done in order to develop a working proof-of-concept model. This thesis outlines the theory behind the plenoptic camera operation and shows how the measured intensity from the image sensor can be turned into a full resolution rendered image with its corresponding depth map. The depth map can be created by a cross-correlation of adjacent sub-images created by the microlenslet array (MLA.) The full resolution image reconstruction can be done by taking a patch from each MLA sub-image and piecing them together like a puzzle. The patch size determines what object plane will be in-focus. This thesis also goes through a very rigorous explanation of the design constraints involved with building a plenoptic camera. Plenoptic camera data from Adobe © was used to help with the development of the algorithms written to create a rendered image and its depth map. Finally, using the algorithms developed from these tests and the knowledge for developing the plenoptic camera, a working experimental system was built, which successfully generated a rendered image and its corresponding depth map.

Social Structural Effects on the Level and Development of the Individual Experience of Anomie in the German Population

Can one observe an increasing level of individual lack of orientation because of rapid social change in modern societies? This question is examined using data from a representative longitudinal survey in Germany conducted in 2002–04. The study examines the role of education, age, sex, region (east/west), and political orientation for the explanation of anomia and its development. First we present the different sources of anomie in modern societies, based on the theoretical foundations of Durkheim and Merton, and introduce the different definitions of anomia, including our own cognitive version. Then we deduce several hypotheses from the theory, which we test by means of longitudinal data for the period 2002–04 in Germany using the latent growth curve model as our statistical method. The empirical findings show that all the sociodemographic variables, including political orientation, are strong predictors of the initial level of anomia. Regarding the development of anomia over time (2002–04), only the region (west) has a significant impact. In particular, the results of a multi-group analysis show that western German people with a right-wing political orientation become more anomic over this period. The article concludes with some theoretical implications.

A summative evaluation of a HIV/AIDS Early Childhood Care, Education and Development Teacher Training Workshop in Mongu, Zambia

Objective. To conduct a summative evaluation of an Early Childhood Care, Education and Development (ECCED) Teacher Training Workshop in Mongu, Zambia by assessing changes in knowledge, attitudes and intent to use the information. ^ Study design. A matched cohort survey design was used with additional qualitative data collected by structured observation of workshop sessions, daily facilitator and participant debriefs and participant interviews. ^ Results. Matching pre and post tests were completed by 27 individuals in addition to daily debriefs, structured workshop observation and participant interviews with 22% of the group. The participant population was predominantly female individuals aged 15-44 years old that had completed high school and additional post-secondary training, been teaching children aged 0 – 8 years for 2-5 years in the Western Province and received other HIV/AIDS and ECCED education. Pre-tests indicated a strong understanding of ECCED principles and misconceptions regarding HIV transmission, prevention and the disease's impact on early childhood development. The workshop was found to significantly increase the participants' knowledge of topics covered by the curriculum (paired t-test, N=27, p = 0.004, 95% CI 1.8, 8.6). Participants began with a more limited understanding of HIV/AIDS than ECCED, but the mean gain was much greater at 7.4 +/- 12.3 points. Significantly more participants believed at post-test that HIV/AIDS education should increase for future educators. The 77.8% of participants that increased their knowledge scores at post-test expressed significantly less fear of having a child with HIV/AIDS in the classroom (Independent Samples t-test, N= 27, p = 0.011). Overall participant fear decreased 15.5%. 92.6% and 88.9% of participants planned at post-test to respectively use and share the taught information in their daily professional lives and reported on innovative strategies to communicate with the community. ^ Conclusions. Teacher training workshops can significantly increase HIV/AIDS awareness and promote positive attitudes in educators working with children affected by HIV/AIDS. Using participant suggested teaching techniques such as poems and songs and translating the materials to the local language could assist future facilitators to both culturally and professionally relate to the workshop audience as well as increase participant capacity to share the information with the local community. ^

The origin and development of hyperammonemia following exposure to hydrazine in rabbits

Hydrazine $\rm (N\sb2H\sb4),$ an important liquid propellant and derivative chemical for pharmaceuticals and pesticides, produces coma and convulsions sometimes resulting in death. Hyperammonia was found in rabbits exposed to 18 mg/Kg of hydrazine. Results of Part One of this study of rabbits emphasize the importance of acute ammonia toxicity during the first three hours following exposure to hydrazine. At no time during this post exposure period did a significant reduction of hydrazine to ammonia occur. Therefore, the elevated blood ammonia was apparently secondary to the effects of hydrazine on metabolic pathways. Further, the results support the theory of competitive inhibition of ammonia by hydrazine and emphasize the need to monitor plasma ammonia following toxic exposure to hydrazine.^ In Part Two, urea, ammonia, CO$\sb2,$ pH, glucose, sodium, potassium, chloride and creatinine were measured for up to 4 hours following injection of 18 mg/Kg of hydrazine in each of two groups of five rabbits. One group received normal saline and the other group received 5% dextrose and water/normal saline. Hyperammonemia, minimal metabolic acidosis and hyperglycemia without increased urea were found in the rabbits receiving normal saline intravenous infusion and hydrazine injection. Hence, hypoglycemia does not appear to play a role in the development of hyperammonemia. A significant difference in the elevated ammonia levels between the two groups receiving dextrose and water/normal saline and normal saline at 1 hour occurred. There was no significant difference in the elevated ammonia levels seen between the two groups receiving dextrose and water/normal saline and normal saline at 2.5 and 4 hours. Thus at 1 hour the group receiving dextrose was able to utilize excess glucose to detoxify ammonia, while at 2.5 and 4 hours there was no significant difference in the two groups' ability to detoxify ammonia.^ Findings support the theory that hydrazine inhibits the formation of urea resulting in hyperammonemia. Results suggest that hydrazine at 18 mg/Kg, a known hypoglycemic agent, causes serious hyperammonemia without increasing urea production during hyperglycemia. These experiments support a unified theory for the toxic mechanism of action of hydrazine, i.e., the intermediary metabolic effects of hydrazine are brought about by the formation of hydrazones which encumber ATP synthesis and vitamin B$\sb6$ enzymatic reactions. ^

Vocational guidance and development of competences

The present "post modern" socio-cultural modalities and the restrictions of the economic globalization lead us to reflect about the configuration of the transformations in the Vocational Guidance, committed to the concepts of "freedom", "epistemological knowledge", "competences of the subject and new roles of the school. This first exploratory incursion if the research has the purpose of retrieving the concept of freedom from the existential philosophers Heidegger and Sartre and of introducing the subject of "competences" from the social theory of Habermas. The aim is to establish new bonds between the Vocational Guidance and the above-mentioned philosophical lineaments: the freedom of the subjects and the possibility of development of those "competences" that allow to establish social, ethical and epistemological interrelations in the sphere of the Vocational Guidance, that promote a greater solidarity facing the "era of emptiness" of the post-modernity supported by Lipovestky.

Vocational guidance and development of competences

The present "post modern" socio-cultural modalities and the restrictions of the economic globalization lead us to reflect about the configuration of the transformations in the Vocational Guidance, committed to the concepts of "freedom", "epistemological knowledge", "competences of the subject and new roles of the school. This first exploratory incursion if the research has the purpose of retrieving the concept of freedom from the existential philosophers Heidegger and Sartre and of introducing the subject of "competences" from the social theory of Habermas. The aim is to establish new bonds between the Vocational Guidance and the above-mentioned philosophical lineaments: the freedom of the subjects and the possibility of development of those "competences" that allow to establish social, ethical and epistemological interrelations in the sphere of the Vocational Guidance, that promote a greater solidarity facing the "era of emptiness" of the post-modernity supported by Lipovestky.

Vocational guidance and development of competences

The present "post modern" socio-cultural modalities and the restrictions of the economic globalization lead us to reflect about the configuration of the transformations in the Vocational Guidance, committed to the concepts of "freedom", "epistemological knowledge", "competences of the subject and new roles of the school. This first exploratory incursion if the research has the purpose of retrieving the concept of freedom from the existential philosophers Heidegger and Sartre and of introducing the subject of "competences" from the social theory of Habermas. The aim is to establish new bonds between the Vocational Guidance and the above-mentioned philosophical lineaments: the freedom of the subjects and the possibility of development of those "competences" that allow to establish social, ethical and epistemological interrelations in the sphere of the Vocational Guidance, that promote a greater solidarity facing the "era of emptiness" of the post-modernity supported by Lipovestky.

Research on intermediate band solar cells and development of experimental techniques for their characterization under concentrated illumination

Abstract This work is a contribution to the research and development of the intermediate band solar cell (IBSC), a high efficiency photovoltaic concept that features the advantages of both low and high bandgap solar cells. The resemblance with a low bandgap solar cell comes from the fact that the IBSC hosts an electronic energy band -the intermediate band (IB)- within the semiconductor bandgap. This IB allows the collection of sub-bandgap energy photons by means of two-step photon absorption processes, from the valence band (VB) to the IB and from there to the conduction band (CB). The exploitation of these low energy photons implies a more efficient use of the solar spectrum. The resemblance of the IBSC with a high bandgap solar cell is related to the preservation of the voltage: the open-circuit voltage (VOC) of an IBSC is not limited by any of the sub-bandgaps (involving the IB), but only by the fundamental bandgap (defined from the VB to the CB). Nevertheless, the presence of the IB allows new paths for electronic recombination and the performance of the IBSC is degraded at 1 sun operation conditions. A theoretical argument is presented regarding the need for the use of concentrated illumination in order to circumvent the degradation of the voltage derived from the increase in the recombi¬nation. This theory is supported by the experimental verification carried out with our novel characterization technique consisting of the acquisition of photogenerated current (IL)-VOC pairs under low temperature and concentrated light. Besides, at this stage of the IBSC research, several new IB materials are being engineered and our novel character¬ization tool can be very useful to provide feedback on their capability to perform as real IBSCs, verifying or disregarding the fulfillment of the “voltage preservation” principle. An analytical model has also been developed to assess the potential of quantum-dot (QD)-IBSCs. It is based on the calculation of band alignment of III-V alloyed heterojunc-tions, the estimation of the confined energy levels in a QD and the calculation of the de¬tailed balance efficiency. Several potentially useful QD materials have been identified, such as InAs/AlxGa1-xAs, InAs/GaxIn1-xP, InAs1-yNy/AlAsxSb1-x or InAs1-zNz/Alx[GayIn1-y]1-xP. Finally, a model for the analysis of the series resistance of a concentrator solar cell has also been developed to design and fabricate IBSCs adapted to 1,000 suns. Resumen Este trabajo contribuye a la investigación y al desarrollo de la célula solar de banda intermedia (IBSC), un concepto fotovoltaico de alta eficiencia que auna las ventajas de una célula solar de bajo y de alto gap. La IBSC se parece a una célula solar de bajo gap (o banda prohibida) en que la IBSC alberga una banda de energía -la banda intermedia (IB)-en el seno de la banda prohibida. Esta IB permite colectar fotones de energía inferior a la banda prohibida por medio de procesos de absorción de fotones en dos pasos, de la banda de valencia (VB) a la IB y de allí a la banda de conducción (CB). El aprovechamiento de estos fotones de baja energía conlleva un empleo más eficiente del espectro solar. La semejanza antre la IBSC y una célula solar de alto gap está relacionada con la preservación del voltaje: la tensión de circuito abierto (Vbc) de una IBSC no está limitada por ninguna de las fracciones en las que la IB divide a la banda prohibida, sino que está únicamente limitada por el ancho de banda fundamental del semiconductor (definido entre VB y CB). No obstante, la presencia de la IB posibilita nuevos caminos de recombinación electrónica, lo cual degrada el rendimiento de la IBSC a 1 sol. Este trabajo argumenta de forma teórica la necesidad de emplear luz concentrada para evitar compensar el aumento de la recom¬binación de la IBSC y evitar la degradación del voltage. Lo anterior se ha verificado experimentalmente por medio de nuestra novedosa técnica de caracterización consistente en la adquisicin de pares de corriente fotogenerada (IL)-VOG en concentración y a baja temperatura. En esta etapa de la investigación, se están desarrollando nuevos materiales de IB y nuestra herramienta de caracterizacin está siendo empleada para realimentar el proceso de fabricación, comprobando si los materiales tienen capacidad para operar como verdaderas IBSCs por medio de la verificación del principio de preservación del voltaje. También se ha desarrollado un modelo analítico para evaluar el potencial de IBSCs de puntos cuánticos. Dicho modelo está basado en el cálculo del alineamiento de bandas de energía en heterouniones de aleaciones de materiales III-V, en la estimación de la energía de los niveles confinados en un QD y en el cálculo de la eficiencia de balance detallado. Este modelo ha permitido identificar varios materiales de QDs potencialmente útiles como InAs/AlxGai_xAs, InAs/GaxIni_xP, InAsi_yNy/AlAsxSbi_x ó InAsi_zNz/Alx[GayIni_y]i_xP. Finalmente, también se ha desarrollado un modelado teórico para el análisis de la resistencia serie de una célula solar de concentración. Gracias a dicho modelo se han diseñado y fabricado IBSCs adaptadas a 1.000 soles.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.