Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

Below-ground processes in meadow soil under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide : - Greenhouse gas fluxes, N cycling and microbial communities

This thesis focuses on how elevated CO2 and/or O3 affect the below-ground processes in semi-natural vegetation, with an emphasis on greenhouse gases, N cycling and microbial communities. Meadow mesocosms mimicking lowland hay meadows in Jokioinen, SW Finland, were enclosed in open-top chambers and exposed to ambient and elevated levels of O3 (40-50 ppb) and/or CO2 (+100 ppm) for three consecutive growing season, while chamberless plots were used as chamber controls. Chemical and microbiological analyses as well as laboratory incubations of the mesocosm soils under different treatments were used to study the effects of O3 and/or CO2. Artificially constructed mesocosms were also compared with natural meadows with regards to GHG fluxes and soil characteristics. In addition to research conducted at the ecosystem level (i.e. the mesocosm study), soil microbial communities were also examined in a pot experiment with monocultures of individual species. By comparing mesocosms with similar natural plant assemblage, it was possible to demonstrate that artificial mesocosms simulated natural habitats, even though some differences were found in the CH4 oxidation rate, soil mineral N, and total C and N concentrations in the soil. After three growing seasons of fumigations, the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 were decreased in the NF+O3 treatment, and the soil NH4+-N and mineral N concentrations were lower in the NF+O3 treatment than in the NF control treatment. The mesocosm soil microbial communities were affected negatively by the NF+O3 treatment, as the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and fungal PLFA biomasses as well as the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio decreased under elevated O3. In the pot survey, O3 decreased the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and mycorrhizal PLFA biomasses in the bulk soil and affected the microbial community structure in the rhizosphere of L. pratensis, whereas the bulk soil and rhizosphere of the other monoculture, A. capillaris, remained unaffected by O3. Elevated CO2 caused only minor and insignificant changes in the GHG fluxes, N cycling, and the microbial community structure. In the present study, the below-ground processes were modified after three years of moderate O3 enhancement. A tentative conclusion is that a decrease in N availability may have feedback effects on plant growth and competition and affect the N cycling of the whole meadow ecosystem. Ecosystem level changes occur slowly, and multiplication of the responses might be expected in the long run.

Benefits and challenges of antivirulence antimicrobials at the dawn of the post-antibiotic era

In April 2014, the World Health Organization announced the beginning of a post-antibiotic era and declared antimicrobial resistance (AMR) a public health priority demanding global action. If no action is taken, by 2050 AMR will kill more people each year than cancer, with 10 million estimated annual deaths at a cost of $100 trillion to the global economy. New therapies to tackle multidrug resistant bacterial pathogens are urgently needed. Unlike traditional antibiotics, antivirulence drugs inhibit bacterial virulence instead of growth promising to offer a new class of superior therapeutics that will be ‘evolution-proof’ and ‘tailored-spectrum’. This mini-review discusses the latest emerging evidence on the promised benefits of antivirulence drugs over conventional antibiotics, also highlighting the challenges in evaluating these properties for each of the diverse virulence targets that are currently under investigation. The author argues that overcoming such challenges early in the development process constitutes an important step towards successfully progressing each of the expanding number of antivirulence strategies into next-generation therapies for common human and animal infections that are becoming increasingly refractory to all available antibiotics.

Inpatient experience of anorexia nervosa

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is an extremely serious mental illness, with a high mortality rate and many debilitating physical and psychological symptoms. While hospitalisation is sometimes required for patients with AN there remains no evidence base for “best practice’ inpatient treatment. With patients’ views recognised as critical to improving efficiency and outcomes, calls have been made for more qualitative research into inpatients’ experiences. In light of this the current paper utilised thematic analysis to examine 16 semi-structured interviews with inpatients diagnosed with AN, at a specialised eating disorders hospital unit. The study found an overarching theme of relationship ambivalence in connection with sub-themes of patients’ eating disorders, eating disorder co-patients, staff and treatment. Participants’ goals in relationship to their eating disorder and engagement in treatment shaped and were shaped by interactions with other inpatients with AN and staff. Clinical implications for this study and future research directions are discussed.

Meadow plant growth and competition under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide

The main aim of my thesis project was to assess the impact of elevated ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) on the growth, competition and community of meadow plants in northern Europe. The thesis project consisted of three separate O3 and CO2 exposure experiments that were conducted as open-top-chamber (OTC) studies at Jokioinen, SW Finland, and a smaller-scale experiment with different availabilities of resources in greenhouses in Helsinki. The OTC experiments included a competition experiment with two- and three-wise interactions, a mesocosm-scale meadow community with a large number of species, and a pot experiment that assessed intraspecific differences of Centaurea jacea ecotypes. The studied lowland hay meadow proved to be an O3-sensitive biotope, as the O3 concentrations used (40-50 ppb) were moderate, and yet, six out of nine species (Campanula rotundifolia, Centaurea jacea, Fragaria vesca, Ranunculus acris, Trifolium medium, Vicia cracca) showed either significant reductions in biomass or reproductive development, visible O3 injury or any two as a response to elevated O3. The plant species and ecotypes exhibited large intra- and interspecific variation in their response to O3, but O3 and CO2 concentrations did not cause changes in their interspecific competition or in community composition. However, the largest O3-induced growth reductions were seen in the least abundant species (C. rotundifolia and F. vesca), which may indicate O3-induced suppression of weak competitors. The overall effects of CO2 were relatively small and mainly restricted to individual species and several measured variables. Based on the present studies, most of the deleterious effects of tropospheric O3 are not diminished by a moderate increase in CO2 under low N availability, and variation exists between different species and variables. The present study indicates that the growth of several herb species decreases with increasing atmospheric O3 concentrations, and that these changes may pose a threat to the biodiversity of meadows. Ozone-induced reductions in the total community biomass production and N pool are likely to have important consequences for the nutrient cycling of the ecosystem.

Effect of phenoxy acids and their derivatives on lipid metabolism in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) leaves

The effect of four phenoxy compounds [2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid, 4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid 2-(dimethylamino)ethyl ester (centrophenoxine), and 4-chlorophenoxy ethyl 2-(dimethylamino) ethyl ether (neophenoxine)] on lipid metabolism in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) leaves was investigated under nonphotosynthetic conditions. In experiments with leaf disks, the uptake of [1-14C]acetate, [32P]orthophosphate, [35S]sulfate and [methyl-14C]choline was substantially inhibited by all the phenoxy compounds except neophenoxine. When the incorporation of these precursors into lipids was measured and expressed as percentage of total uptake, there was significant inhibition of incorporation of [1-14C]acetate and [32P]orthophosphate into lipids by all the compounds except neophenoxine. The incorporation of [methyl-14C]choline was unaffected by all except centrophenoxine which showed stastically significant stimulation. [35S]Sulfate incorporation into lipids was markedly inhibited only by centrophenoxine. The fatty acid synthetase of isolated chloroplasts assayed in the absence of light was inhibited 20–50% by the phenoxy compounds at 0.5 mM concentration. This inhibition showed a dependence on time of preincubation with the herbicide suggesting an interaction with the enzyme. It was, however, reversible and excess substrate did not prevent the inhibition, suggesting that the herbicide interaction may not be at the active site. sn-Glycerol-3-phosphate acyltransferase in the chloroplast and microsomal fractions was inhibited by 2,4-D while the phosphatidic acid phosphatase was insensitive to all the phenoxy compounds. It is concluded that phenoxy compounds affect precursor uptake, their incorporation into lipids, and the chloroplast fatty acid synthetase. The free acids were the most potent compounds while the ester (centrophenoxine) was less effective and the ether (neophenoxine) was completely ineffective in their influence on lipid metabolism.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

Heraproteiinivalmisteen vaikutus laihdutukseen ja laihdutustuloksen pysyvyyteen ylipainoisilla aikuisilla

Johdanto: Lihavuus on maailmalaajuisesti merkittävä kansanterveydellinen ja –taloudellinen ongelma. Lihavuuden ehkäisemiseksi ja epidemian leviämisen hillitsemiseksi on tärkeää tuntea lihavuuteen vaikuttavat tekijät. Yksittäisistä ruoka-aineista maidon käytön on havaittu monissa epidemiologisissa ja kokeellisissa tutkimuksissa olevan yhteydessä alhaisempaan painoon, ehkäisevän lihomista ja edistävän laihtumista. Maidon sisältämistä yhdisteistä kalsiumin vaikutuksia on tutkittu eniten. Myös heraproteiinin on esitetty olevan yksi mahdollinen painoon vaikuttava komponentti, ja näyttöä tästä on saatu eläinkokeista. Tavoitteet: Tutkimuksessa tavoitteena oli selvittää, vaikuttaako päivittäin nautittu heraproteiinia sisältävä välipalajuoma laihtumiseen tai saavutetun laihdutustuloksen pysyvyyteen ylipainoisilla aikuisilla. Aineisto ja menetelmät: Tutkimus toteutettiin osana Valio Oy:n OMPPU2-tutkimusta, joka oli satunnaistettu, lumekontrolloitu ja kaksoissokkoutettu kahden rinnakkaisen ryhmän tutkimus. Tutkimus alkoi rekrytoinneilla alkuvuodesta 2010, joissa tutkimukseen valittiin 105 ylipainoista (BMI 27–35), tervettä, 20–50-vuotiasta naista ja miestä. Tutkimushenkilöt satunnaistettiin tutkimus- ja verrokkiryhmiin, ja molemmat ryhmät nauttivat tutkimusvalmisteensa päivittäin hedelmätäysmehuun sekoitettuna (tutkimusryhmä heraproteiinijauheen ja verrokkiryhmä maltodekstriinijauheen). Tutkimus koostui kahdesta jaksosta: viiden kuukauden laihdutusjaksosta ja tätä seuranneesta kolmen kuukauden painonhallintajaksosta. Tutkimuskäynneillä tutkimuksen alussa, laihdutusjakson lopussa ja painonhallintajakson lopussa mitattiin tutkimushenkilöiden paino ja vyötärönympärys sekä määritettiin kehonkoostumus bioimpedanssilaitteella. Tutkimushenkilöiden ruoankäyttö ja ravinnonsaanti laskettiin samoissa aikapisteissä kerättyjen kolmen päivän ruokapäiväkirjojen perusteella. Tutkimushenkilöitä, joilla tutkimusvalmisteen käyttö oli alle 50 %, ei otettu huomioon tilastoanalyyseissä. Tilastollinen analyysi tehtiin käyttäen kahden riippumattoman otoksen t-testiä ja kaksisuuntaista parittaista t-testiä normaalijakautuneilla muuttujilla, ja Mann-Whitneyn U-testiä ja Wilcoxonin ttestiä ei-normaalijakautuneilla muuttujilla. Tutkimusvalmisteen ja painonmuutosten välinen korrelaatio laskettiin käyttäen Pearsonin korrelaatiokertoimia. Tulokset on ilmaistu keskiarvoina (keskihajonta). Tulokset: Molemmat ryhmät laihtuivat laihdutusjakson aikana. Heraproteiiniryhmässä painonpudotus oli 2,4 (3,8) kg (p=0,002) ja verrokkiryhmässä 3,4 (4,1) kg (p<0,001). Ryhmien välinen ero ei ollut merkitsevä. Rasvamassa väheni verrokkiryhmässä 2,4 (3,8) kg (p<0,001), mikä oli viiteellisesti enemmän (p=0,054) kuin heraproteiiniryhmässä 1,1 (3,1) kg (p=0,129). Rasvaprosentti ja viskeraalirasvan määrä pienenivät verrokkiryhmässä heraproteiiniryhmää enemmän (p<0,025). Vyötärönympärys pieneni heraproteiiniryhmässä 1,9 (3,0) cm (p=0,001) ja verrokkiryhmässä 3,8 (3,8) cm (p<0,001) ryhmien välisen eron ollessa merkitsevä (p=0,017). Maltodekstriinin käyttö korreloi käänteisesti painonmuutosten kanssa laihdutusjaksolla (r=-0,389, p=0,013). Painonhallintajaksolla painossa ei tapahtunut merkitseviä muutoksia kummassakaan ryhmässä. Heraproteiinin käytön ja painonmuutosten välisestä negatiivisesta korrelaatiosta oli viitteitä tällä jaksolla (r=-0,344, p=0,063). Kun tarkasteltiin koko tutkimuksen aikana tapahtuneita muutoksia (laihdutusjakson alusta painonhallintajakson loppuun), ei ryhmien välillä ollut merkitseviä eroja painon tai kehonkoostumuksen muutoksissa. Energiansaanti väheni molemmissa ryhmissä merkitsevästi laihdutusjakson aikana (p<0,01), mutta muutos ei eronnut ryhmien välillä. Ravintoaineista rasvan saanti väheni (p<0,001) ja C-vitamiinin saanti lisääntyi (p<0,001) molemmissa ryhmissä laihdutusjaksolla. Alkoholin saanti väheni verrokkiryhmässä (p=0,017). Proteiinin saanti lisääntyi heraproteiiniryhmässä merkitsevästi enemmän kuin verrokkiryhmässä (p=0,002). Painonhallintajaksolla energiansaanti ei muuttunut kummassakaan ryhmässä laihdutusjakson loppuun verrattuna. Fyysisessä aktiivisuudessa tutkimuksen aikana ei ollut eroa ryhmien välillä. Johtopäätökset: Heraproteiinin ei havaittu tehostavan laihdutusta maltodekstriiniin verrattuna tässä tutkimuksessa. Sen sijaan maltodekstriiniä nauttineessa ryhmässä rasvaprosentti ja erityisesti vatsan alueen rasva pienenivät heraproteiiniryhmää enemmän laihdutusjaksolla. Tulos oli lähes täysin vastakkainen tutkimushypoteesin kanssa, eikä vaikuttaisi selittyvän eroilla energiansaannissa tai fyysisessä aktiivisuudessa. Tämä tutkimus ei siis tue olettamusta, että heraproteiini osana laihdutusruokavaliota auttaisi laihdutuksessa. Painonhallintajaksolla heraproteiinin ja painonmuutosten välinen lähes merkitsevä käänteinen korrelaatio saattaa viitata heraproteiinin merkitykseen painonhallinnassa. Vapaasti elävien ihmisten kohdalla sekoittavia tekijöitä on kuitenkin vaikea vakioida, mikä vaikeuttaa johtopäätösten tekemistä.

A study of Al2O3:C films on Si(100) grown by low pressure MOCVD

We report the characterization of carbonaceous aluminium oxide, Al2O3:C, films grown on Si(100) by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition. The focus is on the study of the effects of carbon on the dielectric properties of aluminium oxide in a qualitative manner. The carbon present in the aluminium oxide film derives from aluminium acetylacetonate used as the source of aluminium. As-grown films comprise nanometer-sized grains of alumina (∼ 20–50 nm) in an amorphous carbonaceous matrix, as examined by X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The films are shiny; they are smooth as observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). An attempt has been made to explore the defects (viz., oxide charge density) in the aluminium oxide films using room temperature high frequency capacitance – voltage (C-V) and current–voltage (I-V) measurements. The hysteresis and stretch-out in the high frequency C-V plots is indicative of charge trapping. The role of heteroatoms, as characterized by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, in the transport of charge in Al2O3:C films is discussed.

Climate change and Indian forests

An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.

Model projections for household energy use in India

Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO(2) emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65-75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9-10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO(2) emissions via increased electricity use. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anti-obese activity of Butea monosperma (Lam) bark extract in experimentally induced obese rats

To study the efficacy of ethanolic extract of B. monosperma bark in cafeteria and atherogenic diet fed rats and monosodium glutamate (MSG) obese rats, different doses (200, 400 and 800 mg/kg) of ethanolic extract of B. monosperma bark showed dose dependent decrease in body weight, daily food intake, glucose, lipids, internal organs' weight and fat pad weight in cafeteria and atherogenic diet fed rats and monosodium glutamate obese rats. The results suggested that B. monosperma has significant anti-obese activity.