An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.

Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidence has accumulated attributing a much wider range of climate changes to human activities. Such changes are broadly consistent with theoretical understanding, and climate model simulations, of how the planet is expected to respond. This paper reviews this evidence from a regional perspective to reflect a growing interest in understanding the regional effects of climate change, which can differ markedly across the globe. We set out the methodological basis for detection and attribution and discuss the spatial scales on which it is possible to make robust attribution statements. We review the evidence showing significant human-induced changes in regional temperatures, and for the effects of external forcings on changes in the hydrological cycle, the cryosphere, circulation changes, oceanic changes, and changes in extremes. We then discuss future challenges for the science of attribution. To better assess the pace of change, and to understand more about the regional changes to which societies need to adapt, we will need to refine our understanding of the effects of external forcing and internal variability

The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

Pollinator community responses to the spatial population structure of wild plants: A pan-European approach

Land-use changes can alter the spatial population structure of plant species, which may in turn affect the attractiveness of flower aggregations to different groups of pollinators at different spatial scales. To assess how pollinators respond to spatial heterogeneity of plant distributions and whether honeybees affect visitation by other pollinators we used an extensive data set comprising ten plant species and their flower visitors from five European countries. In particular we tested the hypothesis that the composition of the flower visitor community in terms of visitation frequencies by different pollinator groups were affected by the spatial plant population structure, viz. area and density measures, at a within-population (‘patch’) and among-population (‘population’) scale. We found that patch area and population density were the spatial variables that best explained the variation in visitation frequencies within the pollinator community. Honeybees had higher visitation frequencies in larger patches, while bumblebees and hoverflies had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations. Solitary bees had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations and smaller patches. We also tested the hypothesis that honeybees affect the composition of the pollinator community by altering the visitation frequencies of other groups of pollinators. There was a positive relationship between visitation frequencies of honeybees and bumblebees, while the relationship with hoverflies and solitary bees varied (positive, negative and no relationship) depending on the plant species under study. The overall conclusion is that the spatial structure of plant populations affects different groups of pollinators in contrasting ways at both the local (‘patch’) and the larger (‘population’) scales and, that honeybees affect the flower visitation by other pollinator groups in various ways, depending on the plant species under study. These contrasting responses emphasize the need to investigate the entire pollinator community when the effects of landscape change on plant–pollinator interactions are studied.

Simulating maize yield in sub-tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model

The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km2), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km2). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural decision making, and Glam‑Maize is one of the alternatives.

Optical characterization of the growth and spatial structure of a substorm onset arc

We present a detailed case study of the characteristics of auroral forms that constitute the first ionospheric signatures of substorm expansion phase onset. Analysis of the optical frequency and along-arc (azimuthal) wave number spectra provides the strongest constraint to date on the potential mechanisms and instabilities in the near-Earth magnetosphere that accompany auroral onset and which precede poleward arc expansion and auroral breakup. We evaluate the frequency and growth rates of the auroral forms as a function of azimuthal wave number to determine whether these wave characteristics are consistent with current models of the substorm onset mechanism. We find that the frequency, spatial scales, and growth rates of the auroral forms are most consistent with the cross-field current instability or a ballooning instability, most likely triggered close to the inner edge of the ion plasma sheet. This result is supportive of a near-Earth plasma sheet initiation of the substorm expansion phase. We also present evidence that the frequency and phase characteristics of the auroral undulations may be generated via resonant processes operating along the geomagnetic field. Our observations provide the most powerful constraint to date on the ionospheric manifestation of the physical processes operating during the first few minutes around auroral substorm onset.

The residual circulation of the Southern Ocean: which spatio-temporal scales are needed?

The Southern Ocean circulation consists of a complicated mixture of processes and phenomena that arise at different time and spatial scales which need to be parametrized in the state-of-the-art climate models. The temporal and spatial scales that give rise to the present-day residual mean circulation are here investigated by calculating the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in density coordinates from an eddy-permitting global model. The region sensitive to the temporal decomposition is located between 38°S and 63°S, associated with the eddy-induced transport. The ‘‘Bolus’’ component of the residual circulation corresponds to the eddy-induced transport. It is dominated by timescales between 1 month and 1 year. The temporal behavior of the transient eddies is examined in splitting the ‘‘Bolus’’ component into a ‘‘Seasonal’’, an ‘‘Eddy’’ and an ‘‘Inter-monthly’’ component, respectively representing the correlation between density and velocity fluctuations due to the average seasonal cycle, due to mesoscale eddies and due to large-scale motion on timescales longer than one month that is not due to the seasonal cycle. The ‘‘Seasonal’’ bolus cell is important at all latitudes near the surface. The ‘‘Eddy’’ bolus cell is dominant in the thermocline between 50°S and 35°S and over the whole ocean depth at the latitude of the Drake Passage. The ‘‘Inter-monthly’’ bolus cell is important in all density classes and is maximal in the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence and the Agulhas Return Current. The spatial decomposition indicates that a large part of the Eulerian mean circulation is recovered for spatial scales larger than 11.25°, implying that small-scale meanders in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), near the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts, and near the Subtropical Front are important in the compensation of the Eulerian mean flow.

How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from flight legs typically ∼40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (∼12 km) from 26 flights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk flux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several flights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic influence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coefficients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coefficient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Office models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher fluxes and exchange coefficients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length.

Midday auroral breakup events and related energy and momentum transfer from the magnetosheath

Combined observations by meridian-scanning photometers, all-sky auroral TV camera and the EISCAT radar permitted a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial development of the midday auroral breakup phenomenon and the related ionospheric ion flow pattern within the 71°–75° invariant latitude radar field of view. The radar data revealed dominating northward and westward ion drifts, of magnitudes close to the corresponding velocities of the discrete, transient auroral forms, during the two different events reported here, characterized by IMF |BY/BZ| < 1 and > 2, respectively (IMF BZ between −8 and −3 nT and BY > 0). The spatial scales of the discrete optical events were ∼50 km in latitude by ∼500 km in longitude, and their lifetimes were less than 10 min. Electric potential enhancements with peak values in the 30–50 kV range are inferred along the discrete arc in the IMF |BY/BZ| < 1 case from the optical data and across the latitudinal extent of the radar field of view in the |BY/BZ| > 2 case. Joule heat dissipation rates in the maximum phase of the discrete structures of ∼ 100 ergs cm−2 s−1 (0.1 W m−2) are estimated from the photometer intensities and the ion drift data. These observations combined with the additional characteristics of the events, documented here and in several recent studies (i.e., their quasi-periodic nature, their motion pattern relative to the persistent cusp or cleft auroral arc, the strong relationship with the interplanetary magnetic field and the associated ion drift/E field events and ground magnetic signatures), are considered to be strong evidence in favour of a transient, intermittent reconnection process at the dayside magnetopause and associated energy and momentum transfer to the ionosphere in the polar cusp and cleft regions. The filamentary spatial structure and the spectral characteristics of the optical signature indicate associated localized ˜1-kV potential drops between the magnetopause and the ionosphere during the most intense auroral events. The duration of the events compares well with the predicted characteristic times of momentum transfer to the ionosphere associated with the flux transfer event-related current tubes. It is suggested that, after this 2–10 min interval, the sheath particles can no longer reach the ionosphere down the open flux tube, due to the subsequent super-Alfvénic flow along the magnetopause, conductivities are lower and much less momentum is extracted from the solar wind by the ionosphere. The recurrence time (3–15 min) and the local time distribution (∼0900–1500 MLT) of the dayside auroral breakup events, combined with the above information, indicate the important roles of transient magnetopause reconnection and the polar cusp and cleft regions in the transfer of momentum and energy between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

The heterogeneity of wooded-agricultural landscape mosaics influences woodland bird community assemblages

Context Landscape heterogeneity (the composition and configuration of different landcover types) plays a key role in shaping woodland bird assemblages in wooded-agricultural mosaics. Understanding how species respond to landscape factors could contribute to preventing further decline of woodland bird populations. Objective To investigate how woodland birds with different species traits respond to landscape heterogeneity, and to identify whether specific landcover types are important for maintaining diverse populations in wooded-agricultural environments. Methods Birds were sampled from woodlands in 58 2 x 2 km tetrads across southern Britain. Landscape heterogeneity was quantified for each tetrad. Bird assemblage response was determined using redundancy analysis combined with variation partitioning and response trait analyses. Results For woodland bird assemblages, the independent explanatory importance of landscape composition and landscape configuration variables were closely interrelated. When considered simultaneously during variation partitioning, the community response was better represented by compositional variables. Different species responded to different landscape features and this could be explained by traits relating to woodland association, foraging strata and nest location. Ubiquitous, generalist species, many of which were hole-nesters or ground foragers, correlated positively with urban landcover while specialists of broadleaved woodland avoided landscapes containing urban areas. Species typical of coniferous woodland correlated with large conifer plantations. Conclusions At the 2 x 2 km scale, there was evidence that the availability of resources provided by proximate landcover types was highly important for shaping woodland bird assemblages. Further research to disentangle the effects of composition and configuration at different spatial scales is advocated.

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.

Comparing species and measures of landscape structure as indicators of conservation importance

P>1. The use of indicators to identify areas of conservation importance has been challenged on several grounds, but nonetheless retains appeal as no more parsimonious approach exists. Among the many variants, two indicator strategies stand out: the use of indicator species and the use of metrics of landscape structure. While the first has been thoroughly studied, the same cannot be said about the latter. We aimed to contrast the relative efficacy of species-based and landscape-based indicators by: (i) comparing their ability to reflect changes in community integrity at regional and landscape spatial scales, (ii) assessing their sensitivity to changes in data resolution, and (iii) quantifying the degree to which indicators that are generated in one landscape or at one spatial scale can be transferred to additional landscapes or scales. 2. We used data from more than 7000 bird captures in 65 sites from six 10 000-ha landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Indicator species and landscape-based indicators were tested in terms of how effective they were in reflecting changes in community integrity, defined as deviations in bird community composition from control areas. 3. At the regional scale, indicator species provided more robust depictions of community integrity than landscape-based indicators. At the landscape scale, however, landscape-based indicators performed more effectively, more consistently and were also more transferable among landscapes. The effectiveness of high resolution landscape-based indicators was reduced by just 12% when these were used to explain patterns of community integrity in independent data sets. By contrast, the effectiveness of species-based indicators was reduced by 33%. 4. Synthesis and applications. The use of indicator species proved to be effective; however their results were variable and sensitive to changes in scale and resolution, and their application requires extensive and time-consuming field work. Landscape-based indicators were not only effective but were also much less context-dependent. The use of landscape-based indicators may allow the rapid identification of priority areas for conservation and restoration, and indicate which restoration strategies should be pursued, using remotely sensed imagery. We suggest that landscape-based indicators might often be a better, simpler, and cheaper strategy for informing decisions in conservation.

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Sao Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.