Análise da mortalidade e das internações por doenças cardiovasculares em Niterói, entre 1998 e 2007

FUNDAMENTO: A redução da mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares é observada no Brasil há anos, atribuída à queda nos fatores de risco, melhora na terapêutica e diminuição da mortalidade hospitalar. OBJETIVO: Comparar a mortalidade populacional, o coeficiente de internação e a mortalidade hospitalar em unidades do Sistema Único de Saúde, para doença isquêmica do coração (DIC), doenças cerebrovasculares (DCBV) e insuficiência cardíaca (IC), no município de Niterói, entre 1998 e 2007. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados o número de óbitos e o de internações e mortalidade hospitalar de residentes em Niterói para o capítulo IX do CID10 e causas específicas disponíveis no Datasus, na população de 30 anos e mais. A diferença entre a magnitude dos indicadores foi calculada para homens e mulheres considerando a média do primeiro triênio menos a média do segundo triênio. RESULTADOS: Houve queda dos coeficientes de mortalidade populacional em homens e mulheres, para todas as faixas etárias, nos três grupos de causas e para o capítulo IX. A tendência à queda dos coeficientes diminuiu com a idade. Para DIC houve queda na mortalidade hospitalar. Para DCBV e IC, aumento. Os coeficientes de internação hospitalar por DIC diminuíram, com exceção de algumas faixas. CONCLUSÃO: O presente estudo permitiu esclarecer alguns aspectos da morbimortalidade cardiovascular em Niterói. A redução da mortalidade populacional e hospitalar por DIC indica haver melhor qualidade na abordagem dessa condição. O aumento da mortalidade hospitalar por DCBV e IC aponta para a necessidade de se dar maior atenção à qualidade do cuidado hospitalar para esses grupos de doenças.

Tendência de mortalidade por infarto agudo do miocárdio em Curitiba (PR) no período de 1998 a 2009

FUNDAMENTO: O Infarto Agudo do Miocárdio (IAM) é a principal causa isolada de óbito entre as doenças crônicas não transmissíveis no Brasil. O conhecimento das tendências de mortalidade é necessário para o planejamento de estratégias de prevenção. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência de mortalidade por infarto do miocárdio no período de 1998 a 2009 na cidade de Curitiba (PR), sua distribuição por gênero, faixa etária e seu impacto na redução do número absoluto de mortes por essa doença nesse período. MÉTODOS: Dados demográficos foram obtidos do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e dados de óbitos foram obtidos no Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde, considerando gênero, faixa etária e residência. A partir do ajuste de um modelo de Regressão de Poisson foram estimadas taxas de mortalidade e número de mortes esperadas que não foram observadas. RESULTADOS: Foi encontrada tendência de declínio significativa (p < 0,001) no período. A estimativa da redução média na taxa de óbito por IAM a cada ano foi de 3,8% (IC 95%: 3,2% - 4,5%). Não houve diferença significativa entre os gêneros (p = 0,238); entretanto, a evolução das taxas padronizadas específicas por idade diferiu significativamente entre as faixas etárias (p = 0,018). Estima-se que a redução anual de 3,8% na taxa de mortalidade tenha resultado em 2.168 mortes aquém do número esperado, considerando a taxa de mortalidade observada em 1998 e projetando esse número sobre o crescimento populacional ocorrido no período estudado. CONCLUSÃO: Embora permaneça como causa importante de óbito, a mortalidade por IAM apresentou queda significativa no período avaliado

Impacto da mortalidade da doença da aorta torácica no estado de São Paulo no período de 1998 a 2007

FUNDAMENTO: Ainda não foram analisadas as características epidemiológicas das doenças da aorta torácica (DAT) no estado de São Paulo e no Brasil, assim como o seu impacto na sobrevida desses pacientes. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar o impacto da mortalidade das DAT e caracterizá-la epidemiologicamente. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva dos dados do Sistema Único de Saúde para os códigos de DAT do registro de internações, de procedimentos e dos óbitos, a partir do Código Internacional de Doenças (CID-10), registrados na Secretaria de Saúde do Estado de São Paulo durante o período de janeiro de 1998 a dezembro de 2007. RESULTADOS: Foram 9.465 óbitos por DAT, 5.500 homens (58,1%) e 3.965 mulheres (41,9%); 6.721 dissecções (71%) e 2.744 aneurismas, 86,3% diagnosticados no IML. Foram 6.109 internações, 67,9% do sexo masculino, sendo que 21,2% evoluíram a óbito (69% homens), com proporções semelhantes de dissecção e aneurisma entre os sexos, respectivamente 54% e 46%, porém com mortalidade distinta. Os homens com DAT morrem mais que as mulheres (OR = 1,5). A distribuição etária para óbitos e internações foi semelhante, com predomínio na sexta década. Foram 3.572 operações (58% das internações) com mortalidade de 20,3% (os pacientes mantidos em tratamento medicamentoso apresentaram mortalidade de 22,6%; p = 0,047). O número de internações, de cirurgias, de óbitos dos pacientes internados e geral de óbitos por DAT foi progressivamente superior ao aumento populacional no decorrer do tempo. CONCLUSÕES: Atuações específicas na identificação precoce desses pacientes, assim como a viabilização do seu atendimento, devem ser implementadas para reduzir a aparente progressiva mortalidade por DAT imposta à nossa população.

Parteien - Scharniere im Bundesstaat? : die Interessendurchsetzung am Beispiel der SPD geführten Landesregierung von Sachsen-Anhalt in den Jahren von 1998 bis 2002

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Geistes-, Sozial- und Erziehungswiss., Diss., 2007

Stereotaktische Strahlentherapie beim Akustikusneurinom : Langzeitbeobachtung nach Behandlungen von 1998 bis 2011

Universität Magdeburg, Univ., Dissertation, 2016

The Instrumental voter goes to the news-agent: demand for information, election closeness, and the media

This paper studies the impact of instrumental voting on information demand and mass media behaviour during electoral campaigns. If voters act instrumentally then information demand should increase with the closeness of an election. Mass media are modeled as profit-maximizing firms that take into account information demand, the value of customers to advertisers and the marginal cost of customers. Information supply should be larger in electoral constituencies where the contest is expected to be closer, there is a higher population density, and customers are on average more profitable for advertisers. The impact of electorate size is theoretically undetermined. These conclusions are then tested with comfortable results on data from the 1997 general election in Britain.

The 2004 election in Spain: terrorism, accountability, and voting

In this paper the electoral consequences of the Islamist terrorist attacks on March 11, 2004 are analysed. According to a quantitative analysis based on a post-electoral survey, we show the causal mechanisms that transform voters’ reactions to the bombings into a particular electoral behaviour and estimate their relevance in the electoral results on March 14, 2004

Elevated blood pressure prevalence in children did not follow the increase in overweight: results from a school-based study in a rapidly developing country, 1998-2006

Background: Blood pressure (BP) is strongly associated with body weight and there is concern that the pediatric overweight epidemic could lead to an increase in children's mean BP. Objectives: We analyzed BP trends from 1998 to 2006 among children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing middle-income country in Africa. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th years of compulsory school). We used the CDC criteria to define "overweight" (BMI _95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria for "elevated BP" (BP _95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile). Methods for height, weight, and BP measurements were identical over the study period. The trends in mean BMI and mean systolic/diastolic BP were assessed with linear regression. Results: 27,703 children aged 4-18 years (participation rate: 79%) contributed 43,927 observations on weight, height, and BP. The prevalence of overweight increased from 5.1% in 1998-2000 to 8.1% in 2004-2006 among boys, and from 6.1% to 9.1% among girls, respectively. The prevalence of elevated BP was 8.4% in 1998-2000 and 6.9% in 2004-2006 among boys; 9.8% and 7.8% among girls, respectively. Over the 9-years study period, age-adjusted body mass index (BMI) increased by 0.078 kg/m2/year in boys and by 0.083 kg/m2/year in girls (both sexes, P_0.001). Age- and height-adjusted systolic BP decreased by -0.37 mmHg/year in boys and by -0.34 mmHg/year in girls (both sexes, P_0.001). Diastolic BP did not change in boys (-0.02 mmHg/year, P: 0.40) and slightly increased in girls (0.07 mmHg/year, P: 0.003). These trend estimates were altered modestly upon further adjustment for BMI or if analyses were based on median rather than mean values. Conclusion: Although body weight increased markedly between 1998 and 2006 in this population, systolic BP decreased and diastolic BP changed only marginally. This suggests that population increases in body weight are not necessarily associated with corresponding rises in BP in children.

The disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

Inter-Connectedness In The Scottish Economy, 1998-2004

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one inputoutput table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how inter-connectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2009 of a consistent series of inputoutput tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2004. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. It is shown that although the aggregate results might appear to indicate a degree of import substitution was taking place this result is not robust to industrial disaggregation. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to an eleven sector disaggregation of the Scottish economy in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector. It is shown that for the majority of sectors the degree of interconnectedness with the rest of the Scottish economy has grown for others, in particular Financial Services and Energy and Water Supply it has not.

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy, 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis.

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

Transplantation rénale pédiatrique: expérience lausannoise de 1971 à 1998 [Pediatric renal transplantation: Experience in Lausanne 1971 to 1998].

AIMS OF THE STUDY: Analysis of indications and results of paediatric renal transplantation in a single centre, before and after the introduction of cyclosporine A (CSA). METHODS: Historical retrospective study. RESULTS: 19 transplantations were performed in 14 patients (5 second grafts) between 1971 and 1987 (group I). 13 patients were transplanted between 1988 and 1998 (no second transplant) (group II). In group II, all the patients had immunosuppression with CSA, but none in group I. Group II, with CSA, showed better renal survival than patients without CSA. In group I, obstructive uropathies (posterior urethral valves, pyelo-ureteral junction stenosis, vesico-ureteral reflux) represent a common cause (35%) of terminal chronic renal failure (TCRF), whereas in group II they represent only 15% of the causes and chronic glomerulonephritis is the most common cause (69%) of TCRF. Acute and chronic graft rejections were the cause of 9 and 1 graft losses in group I and II respectively. Living related donors account for 14% of all renal transplantations in group I and 46% in group II. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of paediatric patients referred to Lausanne for TCRF is stable. We have observed a constant and steady decrease in obstructive uropathies leading to TCRF and renal transplantations, whereas glomerulonephritis are increasingly frequent. Graft survival has much improved since the introduction of cyclosporine A, without an increase in morbidity. In carefully selected cases, intrafamilial renal transplantation provides good results and helps to shorten the time spent on dialysis.