Electoral behaviour in the 2010 Australian federal election

All elections are unique, but the Australian federal election of 2010 was unusual for many reasons. It came in the wake of the unprecedented ousting of the Prime Minister who had led the Australian Labor Party to a landslide victory, after eleven years in opposition, at the previous election in 2007. In a move that to many would have been unthinkable, Kevin Rudd’s increasing unpopularity within his own parliamentary party finally took its toll and in late June he was replaced by his deputy, Julia Gillard. Thus the second unusual feature of the election was that it was contested by Australia’s first female prime minister. The third unusual feature was that the election almost saw a first-term government, with a comfortable majority, defeated. Instead it resulted in a hung parliament, for the first time since 1940, and Labor scraped back into power as a minority government, supported by three independents and the first member of the Australian Greens ever to be elected to the House of Representatives. The Coalition Liberal and National opposition parties themselves had a leader of only eight months standing, Tony Abbott, whose ascension to the position had surprised more than a few. This was the context for an investigation of voting behaviour in the 2010 election....

Leadership change, policy issues and voter defection in the 2010 Australian election

Leadership change formed the backdrop to the 2010 Australian federal election, with the replacement of Kevin Rudd as prime minister by Julia Gillard, the country’s first female prime minister. This article uses the 2010 Australian Election Study, a post-election survey of voters, to examine patterns of voter defection between the 2007 and 2010 elections. The results show that the predominant influence on defection was how voters rated the leaders. Julia Gillard was particularly popular among female voters and her overall impact on the vote was slightly greater than that of Tony Abbott. Policy issues were second in importance after leadership, particularly for those moving from the Coalition to Labor, who were concerned about health and unemployment. Labor defectors to the Greens particularly disliked Labor’s education policies. Overall, the results point to the enduring importance of leaders as the predominant influence on how voters cast their ballot.

Gender and Leader Effects in the 2010 Australian Election

The impact of voters’ gender on leader evaluations in parliamentary systems has been largely unexplored, while the impact of female leaders on voter attitudes and preferences remains to be fully established. This paper uses Julia Gillard’s historic candidacy in the 2010 Australian federal election to explore how voters evaluated Australia’s first female prime minister, and to test the impact of their assessments on vote choice. The authors also examine whether Gillard’s high-profile candidacy affected women’s levels of political interest, awareness and engagement in what had been largely a ‘man’s game’. Their findings confirm that Gillard enjoyed a gender-affinity effect in 2010 in terms of both leader evaluations and vote choice, and women’s political engagement was significantly affected by the Gillard candidacy.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The need for ‘representative task design’ in evaluating efficacy of skills tests in sport : a comment on Russell, Benton and Kingsley (2010)

Russell, Benton and Kingsley (2010) recently suggested a new association football test comprising three different tasks for the evaluation of players' passing, dribbling and shooting skills. Their stated intention was to enhance ‘ecological validity’ of current association football skills tests allowing generalisation of results from the new protocols to performance constraints that were ‘representative’ of experiences during competitive game situations. However, in this comment we raise some concerns with their use of the term ‘ecological validity’ to allude to aspects of ‘representative task design’. We propose that in their paper the authors confused understanding of environmental properties, performance achievement and generalisability of the test and its outcomes. Here, we argue that the tests designed by Russell and colleagues did not include critical sources of environmental information, such as the active role of opponents, which players typically use to organise their actions during performance. Static tasks which are not representative of the competitive performance environment may lead to different emerging patterns of movement organisation and performance outcomes, failing to effectively evaluate skills performance in sport.

The Tashi project 2004-2010 : developing methods for creating theatre works that fully engage children aged between 3 and 10

Over a seven-year period, Mark Radvan directed a suite of children’s theatre productions adapted from the original Tashi stories by Australian writers Anna and Barbara Fienberg. The Tashi Project’s repertoire of plays performed to over 40,000 children aged between 3 and 10 years old, and their carers, in seasons at the Out of the Box Festival, at Brisbane Powerhouse and in venues across Australia in two interstate tours in 2009 and 2010. The project investigated how best to combine an exploration of theatrical forms and conventions, with a performance style evolved in a specially developed training program and a deliberate positioning of young children as audiences capable of sophisticated readings of action, symbol, theme and character. The results of this project show that when brought into appropriate relationship with the theatre artists, young children aged 3-5 can engage with sophisticated narrative forms, and with the right contextual framing they enjoy heightened dramatic and emotional tension, bringing to the event sustained and highly engaged concentration. Older children aged 6-10 also bring sustained and heightened engagement to the same stories, providing that other more sophisticated dramatic elements are woven into the construction of the performances, such as character, theme and style.

An examination of tax-deductible donations made by individual Australian taxpayers in 2010-11

Each year, The Australian Centre for Philanthropy and Nonprofit Studies (CPNS) at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) collects and analyses statistics on the amount and extent of tax-deductible donations made and claimed by Australians in their individual income tax returns to deductible gift recipients (DGRs). The information presented below is based on the amount and type of tax-deductible donations made and claimed by Australian individual taxpayers to DGRs for the period 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011. This information has been extracted mainly from the Australian Taxation Office's (ATO) publication Taxation Statistics 2010-11. The 2010-11 report is the latest report that has been made publicly available. It represents information in tax returns for the 2010-11 year processed by the ATO as at 31 October 2012.

Tax Deductible Giving in 2010 - 2011:ACPNS Current Issues Information Sheet 2013/1

Each year The Australian Centre for Philanthropy and Nonprofit Studies (ACPNS) at QUT analyses statistics on tax-deductible donations made by Australians in their individual income tax returns to Deductible Gift Recipients (DGRs). The information presented below is based on the amount and type of tax-deductible donations made by Australian taxpayers to DGRs for the period 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011 extracted from the Australian Taxation Office's publication Taxation Statistics 2010-2011.1

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Far North Queensland, Australia, 2004 to 2010 : midwives’ perinatal data most accurate source

Objectives: This study examines the accuracy of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) case-ascertainment in routinely collected data. Methods: Retrospective cohort study analysed routinely collected data from all births at Cairns Base Hospital, Australia, from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010 in the Cairns Base Hospital Clinical Coding system (CBHCC) and the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection (QPDC). GDM case ascertainment in the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) and Cairns Diabetes Centre (CDC) data were compared. Results: From 2004 to 2010, the specificity of GDM case-ascertainment in the QPDC was 99%. In 2010, only 2 of 225 additional cases were identified from the CDC and CBHCC, suggesting QPDC sensitivity is also over 99%. In comparison, the sensitivity of the CBHCC data was 80% during 2004–2010. The sensitivity of CDC data was 74% in 2010. During 2010, 223 births were coded as GDM in the QPDC, and the NDSS registered 247 women with GDM from the same postcodes, suggesting reasonable uptake on the NDSS register. However, the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women was lower than expected. Conclusion: The accuracy of GDM case ascertainment in the QPDC appears high, with lower accuracy in routinely collected hospital and local health service data. This limits capacity of local data for planning and evaluation, and developing structured systems to improve post-pregnancy care, and may underestimate resources required. Implications: Data linkage should be considered to improve accuracy of routinely collected local health service data. The accuracy of the NDSS for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women requires further evaluation.

The art of interpretation: Tracing logics of evaluation in Shaun Tan’s The Lost Thing (2000) and Andrew Ruhemann and Shaun Tan’s The Lost Thing (2010)

Celebration (and the celebritisation) of the Australian-ness of children’s authors who enjoy critical or commercial international success, and especially of those who win international prizes speaks to a desire to partake in both national and international cultural spheres. Prizing is often presumed to both guarantee and emerge from a creator's reputation at home and abroad. Australian artist and writer Shaun Tan has received a wide array of cultural and literary prizes, ranging from Australian book awards, to an Academy Award, to the Astrid Lindgren Memorial Prize. This paper considers logics of evaluation and interpretation as they can be traced in the intratextual, intertextual, and extratextual codes of Shaun Tan’s picture book, The Lost Thing (2000), the animated film adaptation of The Lost Thing (2010). It further considers the ways in which the desire for a global audience may necessitate an erasure of the national culture which is traded on in a global market.

Outdoor worker sun protection project : a comprehensive applied research project to demonstrate the effectiveness of sun protection measures which influence high risk outdoor workers in Queensland to adopt sun safe behaviour practices 2010 – 2013

The QUT Outdoor Worker Sun Protection (OWSP) project undertook a comprehensive applied health promotion project to demonstrate the effectiveness of sun protection measures which influence high risk outdoor workers in Queensland to adopt sun safe behaviours. The three year project (2010-2013) was driven by two key concepts: 1) The hierarchy of control, which is used to address risks in the workplace, advocates for six control measures that need to be considered in order of priority (refer to Section 3.4.2); and 2) the Ottawa Charter which recommends five action means to achieve health promotion (refer to Section 2.1). The project framework was underpinned by a participatory action research approach that valued peoples’ input, took advantage of existing skills and resources, and stimulated innovation (refer to Section 4.2). Fourteen workplaces (small and large) with a majority outdoor workforce were recruited across regional Queensland (Darling Downs, Northwest, Mackay and Cairns) from four industries types: 1) building and construction, 2) rural and farming, 3) local government, and 4) public sector. A workplace champion was identified at each workplace and was supported (through resource provision, regular contact and site visits) over a 14 to 18 month intervention period to make sun safety a priority in their workplace. Employees and employers were independently assessed for pre- and postintervention sun protection behaviours. As part of the intervention, an individualised sun safety action plan was developed in conjunction with each workplace to guide changes across six key strategy areas including: 1) Policy (e.g., adopt sun safety practices during all company events); 2) Structural and environmental (e.g., shade on worksites; eliminate or minimise reflective surfaces); 3) Personal protective equipment (PPE) (e.g., trial different types of sunscreens, or wide-brimmed hats); 4) Education and awareness (e.g., include sun safety in inductions and toolbox talks; send reminder emails or text messages to workers);5) Role modelling (e.g., by managers, supervisors, workplace champions and mentors); and 6) Skin examinations (e.g., allow time off work for skin checks). The participatory action process revealed that there was no “one size fits all” approach to sun safety in the workplace; a comprehensive, tailored approach was fundamental. This included providing workplaces with information, resources, skills, know how, incentives and practical help. For example, workplaces engaged in farming complete differing seasonal tasks across the year and needed to prepare for optimal sun safety of their workers during less labour intensive times. In some construction workplaces, long pants were considered a trip hazard and could not be used as part of a PPE strategy. Culture change was difficult to achieve and workplace champions needed guidance on the steps to facilitate this (e.g., influencing leaders through peer support, mentoring and role modelling). With the assistance of the project team the majority of workplaces were able to successfully implement the sun safety strategies contained within their action plans, up skilling them in the evidence for sun safety, how to overcome barriers, how to negotiate with all relevant parties and assess success. The most important enablers to the implementation of a successful action plan were a pro-active workplace champion, strong employee engagement, supportive management, the use of highly visual educational resources, and external support (provided by the project team through regular contact either directly through phone calls or indirectly through emails and e-newsletters). Identified barriers included a lack of time, the multiple roles of workplace champions, (especially among smaller workplaces), competing issues leading to a lack of priority for sun safety, the culture of outdoor workers, and costs or budgeting constraints. The level of sun safety awareness, knowledge, and sun protective behaviours reported by the workers increased between pre-and post-intervention. Of the nine sun protective behaviours that were assessed, the largest changes reported included a 26% increase in workers who “usually or always” wore a broad-brimmed hat, a 20% increase in the use of natural shade, a 19% increase in workers wearing long-sleeved collared shirts, and a 16% increase in workers wearing long trousers.

A socially just rationale for an Australian curriculum? : a critical thematic policy analysis of political speeches in education (2007-2010)

In late 2007, newly elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd placed education reform on centre stage as a key policy in the Labor Party's agenda for social reform in Australia. A major policy strategy within this 'Education Revolution' was the development of a national curriculum, the Australian Curriculum Within this political context, this study is an investigation into how social justice and equity have been used in political speeches to justify the need for, and the nature of, Australia's first official national curriculum. The aim is to provide understandings into what is said or not said; who is included or excluded, represented or misrepresented; for what purpose; and for whose benefit. The study investigates political speeches made by Education Ministers between 2008 and 201 0; that is, from the inception of the Australian Curriculum to the release of the Phase 1 F - 10 draft curriculum documents in English, mathematics, science and history. Curriculum development is defined here as an ongoing process of complex conversations. To contextualise the process of curriculum development within Australia, the thesis commences with an initial review of curriculum development in this nation over the past three decades. It then frames this review within contemporary curriculum theory; in particular it calls upon the work of William Pinar and the key notions of currere and reconceptualised curriculum. This contextualisation work is then used as a foundation to examine how social justice and equity have been represented in political speeches delivered by the respective Education Ministers Julia Gillard and Peter Garrett at key junctures of Australian Curriculum document releases. A critical thematic policy analysis is the approach used to examine selected official speech transcripts released by the ministerial media centre through the DEEWR website. This approach provides a way to enable insights and understandings of representations of social justice and equity issues in the policy agenda. Broader social implications are also discussed. The project develops an analytic framework that enables an investigation into the framing of social justice and equity issues such as inclusion, equality, quality education, sharing of resources and access to learning opportunities in political speeches aligned with the development of the Australian Curriculum Through this analysis, the study adopts a focus on constructions of educationally disadvantaged students and how the solutions of 'fixing' teachers and providing the 'right' curriculum are presented as resolutions to the perceived problem. In this way, it aims to work towards offering insights into political justifications for a national curriculum in Australia from a social justice perspective.

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.