920 resultados para 1 kyr running mean
The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century
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The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.
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We study two-dimensional (2D) turbulence in a doubly periodic domain driven by a monoscale-like forcing and damped by various dissipation mechanisms of the form νμ(−Δ)μ. By “monoscale-like” we mean that the forcing is applied over a finite range of wavenumbers kmin≤k≤kmax, and that the ratio of enstrophy injection η≥0 to energy injection ε≥0 is bounded by kmin2ε≤η≤kmax2ε. Such a forcing is frequently considered in theoretical and numerical studies of 2D turbulence. It is shown that for μ≥0 the asymptotic behaviour satisfies ∥u∥12≤kmax2∥u∥2, where ∥u∥2 and ∥u∥12 are the energy and enstrophy, respectively. If the condition of monoscale-like forcing holds only in a time-mean sense, then the inequality holds in the time mean. It is also shown that for Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1), the time-mean enstrophy dissipation rate is bounded from above by 2ν1kmax2. These results place strong constraints on the spectral distribution of energy and enstrophy and of their dissipation, and thereby on the existence of energy and enstrophy cascades, in such systems. In particular, the classical dual cascade picture is shown to be invalid for forced 2D Navier–Stokes turbulence (μ=1) when it is forced in this manner. Inclusion of Ekman drag (μ=0) along with molecular viscosity permits a dual cascade, but is incompatible with the log-modified −3 power law for the energy spectrum in the enstrophy-cascading inertial range. In order to achieve the latter, it is necessary to invoke an inverse viscosity (μ<0). These constraints on permissible power laws apply for any spectrally localized forcing, not just for monoscale-like forcing.
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Hourly data (1994–2009) of surface ozone concentrations at eight monitoring sites have been investigated to assess target level and long–term objective exceedances and their trends. The European Union (EU) ozone target value for human health (60 ppb–maximum daily 8–hour running mean) has been exceeded for a number of years for almost all sites but never exceeded the set limit of 25 exceedances in one year. Second highest annual hourly and 4th highest annual 8–hourly mean ozone concentrations have shown a statistically significant negative trend for in–land sites of Cork–Glashaboy, Monaghan and Lough Navar and no significant trend for the Mace Head site. Peak afternoon ozone concentrations averaged over a three year period from 2007 to 2009 have been found to be lower than corresponding values over a three–year period from 1996 to 1998 for two sites: Cork–Glashaboy and Lough Navar sites. The EU long–term objective value of AOT40 (Accumulated Ozone Exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb) for protection of vegetation (3 ppm–hour, calculated from May to July) has been exceeded, on an individual year basis, for two sites: Mace Head and Valentia. The critical level for the protection of forest (10 ppm–hour from April to September) has not been exceeded for any site except at Valentia in the year 2003. AOT40–Vegetation shows a significant negative trend for a 3–year running average at Cork–Glashaboy (–0.13±0.02 ppm–hour per year), at Lough Navar (–0.05±0.02 ppm–hour per year) and at Monaghan (–0.03±0.03 ppm–hour per year–not statistically significant) sites. No statistically significant trend was observed for the coastal site of Mace head. Overall, with the exception of the Mace Head and Monaghan sites, ozone measurement records at Irish sites show a downward negative trend in peak values that affect human health and vegetation.
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Interpretation of ice-core records is currently limited by paucity of modelling at adequate temporal and spatial resolutions. Several key questions relate to mechanisms of polar amplification and inter-hemispheric coupling on glacial/interglacial timescales. Here, we present the first results from a large set of global ocean–atmosphere climate model ‘snap-shot’ simulations covering the last 120 000 years using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3) at up to 1 kyr temporal resolution. Two sets of simulations were performed in order to examine the roles of orbit and greenhouse gases versus ice-sheet forcing of orbital-scale climate change. A series of idealised Heinrich events were also simulated, but no changes to aerosols or vegetation were prescribed. This paper focuses on high latitudes and inter-hemispheric linkages. The simulations reproduce polar temperature trends well compared to ice-core reconstructions, although the magnitude is underestimated. Polar amplification varies with obliquity, but this variability is dampened by including variations in land ice coverage, while the overall amplification factor increases. The relatively constant amplification of Antarctic temperatures (with ice-sheet forcing included) suggests it is possible to use Antarctic temperature reconstructions to estimate global changes (which are roughly half the magnitude). Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation varies considerably only with the introduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but only weakens in the North Atlantic in the deep glacial, when ocean–sea-ice feedbacks result in the movement of the region of deep convection to lower latitudes and with the introduction of freshwater to the surface North Atlantic in order to simulate Heinrich events.
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Background—A major problem in procurement of donor hearts is the limited time a donor heart remains viable. After cardiectomy, ischemic hypoxia is the main cause of donor heart degradation. The global myocardial ischemia causes a cascade of oxygen radical formation that cumulates in an elevation in hydrogen ions (decrease in pH), irreversible cellular injury, and potential microvascular changes in perfusion. Objective—To determine the changes of prolonged storage times on donor heart microvasculature and the effects of intermittent antegrade perfusion. Materials and Methods—Using porcine hearts flushed with a Ribosol-based cardioplegic solution, we examined how storage time affects microvascular myocardial perfusion by using contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging at a mean (SD) of 6.1 (0.6) hours (n=13) or 15.6 (0.6) hours (n=11) after cardiectomy. Finally, to determine if administration of cardioplegic solution affects pH and microvascular perfusion, isolated hearts (group 1, n=9) given a single antegrade dose, were compared with hearts (group 2, n=8) given intermittent antegrade cardioplegia (150 mL, every 30 min, 150 mL/min) by a heart preservation device. Khuri pH probes in left and right ventricular tissue continuously measured hydrogen ion levels, and perfusion intensity on magnetic resonance images was plotted against time. Results—Myocardial perfusion measured via magnetic resonance imaging at 6.1 hours was significantly greater than at 15.6 hours (67% vs 30%, P= .00008). In group 1 hearts, the mean (SD) for pH at the end of 6 hours decreased to 6.2 (0.2). In group 2, hearts that received intermittent antegrade cardioplegia, pH at the end of 6 hours was higher at 6.7 (0.3) (P=.0005). Magnetic resonance imaging showed no significant differences between the 2 groups in contrast enhancement (group 1, 62%; group 2, 40%) or in the wet/dry weight ratio. Conclusion—Intermittent perfusion maintains a significantly higher myocardial pH than does a conventional single antegrade dose. This difference may translate into an improved quality of donor hearts procured for transplantation, allowing longer distance procurement, tissue matching, improved outcomes for transplant recipients, and ideally a decrease in transplant-related costs.
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Using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. Upon CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m−2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. The authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m−2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m−2 K−1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m−2 K−1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.
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The Ulysses spacecraft has shown that the radial component of the heliospheric magnetic field is approximately independent of latitude. This has allowed quantification of the total open solar flux from near-Earth observations of the interplanetary magnetic field. The open flux can also be estimated from photospheric magnetograms by mapping the fields up to the ‘‘coronal source surface’’ where the field is assumed to be radial and which is usually assumed to be at a heliocentric distance r = 2.5R_{S} (a mean solar radius, 1R_{S} = 6.96x10^{8} m). These two classes of open flux estimate will differ by the open flux that threads the heliospheric current sheet(s) inside Earth’s orbit at 2.5R_{S} < r < 1R{1} (where the mean Earth-Sun distance, 1R_{1} = 1 AU = 1.5 x 10^{11} m). We here use near-Earth measurements to estimate this flux and show that at sunspot minimum it causes only a very small (approximately 0.5%) systematic difference between the two types of open flux estimate, with an uncertainty that is of order ±24% in hourly values, ±16% in monthly averages, and between -6% and +2% in annual values. These fractions may be somewhat larger for sunspot maximum because of flux emerging at higher heliographic latitudes.
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Aims Current estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) are based largely on surficial measurements to depths of 0.3 to 1 m. Many of the world’s soils greatly exceed 1 m depth and there are numerous reports of biological activity to depths of many metres. Although SOC storage to depths of up to 8 m has been previously reported, the extent to which SOC is stored at deeper depths in soil profiles is currently unknown. This paper aims to provide the first detailed analysis of these previously unreported stores of SOC. Methods Soils from five sites in the deeply weathered regolith in the Yilgarn Craton of south-western Australia were sampled and analysed for total organic carbon by combustion chromatography. These soils ranged between 5 and 38 m (mean 21 m) depth to bedrock and had been either recently reforested with Pinus pinaster or were under agriculture. Sites had a mean annual rainfall of between 399 and 583 mm yr−1. Results The mean SOC concentration across all sites was 2.30 ± 0.26 % (s.e.), 0.41 ± 0.05 % and 0.23 ± 0.04 % in the surface 0.1, 0.1–0.5 and 0.5 to 1.0 m increments, respectively. The mean value between 1 and 5 m was 0.12 ± 0.01 %, whereas between 5 and 35 m the values decreased from 0.04 ± 0.002 % to 0.03 ± 0.003 %. Mean SOC mass densities for each of the five locations varied from 21.8–37.5 kg C m−2, and were in toto two to five times greater than would be reported with sampling to a depth of 0.5 m. Conclusions This finding may have major implications for estimates of global carbon storage and modelling of the potential global impacts of climate change and land-use change on carbon cycles. The paper demonstrates the need for a reassessment of the current arbitrary shallow soil sampling depths for assessing carbon stocks, a revision of global SOC estimates and elucidation of the composition and fate of deep carbon in response to land use and climate change
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The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0°C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold- to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.
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Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate, through histomorphometric analysis, the effect that different loading times would have on the bone response around implants. Materials and Methods: Three Replace Select implants were placed on each side of the mandible in eight dogs (n = 48 implants). One pair of implants was selected for an immediate loading protocol (IL). After 7 days, the second pair of implants received prostheses for an early loading protocol (EL). Fourteen days after implant placement, the third pair of implants received prostheses for advanced early loading (AEL). Following 12 weeks of prosthetics, counted following the positioning of the metallic crowns for the AEL group, the animals were sacrificed and the specimens were prepared for histomorphometric analysis. The differences between loading time in the following parameters were evaluated through analysis of variance: bone-to-implant contact, bone density, and crestal bone loss. Results: The mean percentage of bone-to-implant contact for IL was 77.9% +/- 1.71%, for EL it was 79.25% +/- 2.11%, and for AEL it was 79.42% +/- 1.49%. The mean percentage of bone density for IL was 69.97% +/- 3.81%, for EL it was 69.23% +/- 5.68%, and for AEL it was 69.19% +/- 2.90%. Mean crestal bone loss was 1.57 +/- 0.22 mm for IL, 1.23 +/- 0.19 mm for EL, and 1.17 +/- 0.32 mm for AEL. There was no statistical difference for any of the parameters evaluated (P > .05). Conclusion: Different early loading times did not seem to significantly affect the bone response around dental implants. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2010;25:473-481
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The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) improved HIV infection prognosis. However, adverse metabolic and morphologic effects emerged, highlighting a lack of investigation into the role of nutritional interventions among this population. The present study evaluated the impact of a nutritional counseling program on prevention of morphologic and metabolic changes in patients living with HIV/AIDS receiving HAART. A 12-month randomized clinical trial was conducted with 53 adults of both genders in use of HAART. Subjects were allocated to either an intervention group (IG) or a control group (CG). Nutritional counseling was based on the promotion of a healthy diet pattern. Anthropometrical, biochemical, blood pressure, and food intake variables were assessed on four separate occasions. Sub scapular skin-fold results showed a significant tendency for increase between time 1 (Mean IG = 14.9 mm; CG = 13.6 mm), time 3 (Mean IG = 16.7 mm; CG = 18.2 mm), and time 4 (Mean IG = 16.4 mm; CG = 17.7 mm). Lipid percentage intake presented a greater increase among controls (time 1 mean = 26.3%, time 4 mean = 29.6%) than among IG subjects (time 1 mean = 29.1%, time 4 mean = 28.9%). Moreover, participants allocated to the IG presented an increase in dietetic fiber intake of almost 10 grams. The proposed nutritional counseling program proved to be effective in improving diet by reducing fat consumption and increasing fiber intake.
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The study aimed at verifying the associated factors of self-perceived body changes in adults living with HIV in highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. This cross-sectional study was conducted among people living with HIV on HAART for at least three months. A standardized questionnaire was used for assessing self-perceived body changes. Associated factors relating to self-reported body changes in people living with HIV (PLHIV) were assessed with Student`s t-test and chi-square test. In total, 507 patients were evaluated. The mean time since diagnosis was 6.6 years [standard deviation (SD)+/-4.1], and the mean duration of HAART was 5.1 years (SD+/-3.3). Self-perceived body changes were reported by 79.5% of the participants and were associated with viral load and duration of HAART. Fibre intake was lower among males who gained in abdominal fat (p=0.035). HAART-related body changes were reported by the large majority of the population and were associated with demographic and clinical variables.
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Objective: To assess the bioequivalence of three ibuprofen formulations (Test formulation: ibuprofen (400 mg capsule) manufactured by Cardinal Health Brasil 402 Ltda. (Sorocaba, Brazil) and licensed to Boehringer Ingelheim do Brasil Quim. e Farm. Ltda. (Sao Paulo, Brazil); Reference formulation (1): ibuprofen (Advil (R); 2 x 200 mg coated tablet) from Wyeth-Whitehall Ltda. (Itapevi, Brazil); Reference formulation (2): ibuprofen (Alivium (R); 8 ml x 50 mg/ml solution) from Schering Plough S.A. (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)) in 24 healthy volunteers of both sexes. Methods: The study was conducted using an open, randomized, three-period crossover design with at least 5-day washout interval. Plasma samples were obtained over a 24-h period. Plasma ibuprofen concentrations were analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) with negative ion electrospray ionization using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). The following pharmacokinetic parameters were obtained from the ibuprofen plasma concentration vs. time curves: AUC(last), AUC(trunctmax) AUC(inf) and C-max. Results: The limit of quantification for ibuprofen was 0.1 mu g x ml(-1). The geometric mean with corresponding 90% confidence interval (CI) for Test/Reference (1) percent ratios were 114.24% (90% CI = 105.67, 123.50%) for C-max, 98.97% (90% CI = 94.69, 103.44%) for AUC(last) and 99.40% (90% CI = 95.21, 103.78%) for AUCinf. The geometric mean and respective 90% confidence interval (CI) for Test/Reference (2) percent ratios were 108.38% (90% Cl = 100.195, 117.25%) for C-max, 100.79% (90% CI = 96.39, 105.40%) for AUC(last) and 101.26% (90% CI = 96.94, 105.77%) for AUC(inf); t(max) for the 400 mg Test capsule was shorter than that for the 2 x 200 mg Reference (1) tablets (p < 0.002). Conclusion: Since the 90% CI for AUC(last), AUC(inf) and C-max ratios were within the 80 - 125% interval proposed by the US FDA, it was concluded that ibuprofen formulation manufactured by Cardinal Health Brasil 402 Ltda. and licensed to Boehringer Ingelheim do Brasil Quim. e Farm. Ltda. is bioequivalent to the Advil (R) and Alivium (R) formulations with regard to both the rate and the extent of absorption.
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As dilatações vasculares intrapulmonares (DVIP) constituem a anormalidade vascular pulmonar mais freqüente e a principal causa de hipoxemia grave em hepatopatas. A associação de doença hepática, aumento do gradiente alvéoloarterial de oxigênio e DVIP é chamada de "síndrome hepatopulmonar". O objetivo principal deste estudo foi verificar se os níveis de DVIP aferidos por ecocardiografia com contraste estão relacionados à intensidade de shunt intrapulmonar, medida por dois diferentes métodos: cintilografia com 99mTc-MAA e gasometria com O2 a 100%. Foram estudados 28 candidatos a transplante hepático portadores com DVIP identificadas e graduadas por ecocardiografia conforme escala semi-quantitativa (graus I a IV). A idade média foi de 47,5 anos, e a doença hepática foi classificada como Child-Pugh B na maioria dos casos (60,7%). A intensidade das DVIP foi classificada como I, II, III e IV em 13 (46,4%), 9 (32,1%), 2 (7,1%) e 4 (14,3%) casos, respectivamente. Dos 28 pacientes, 21 (75%) tiveram quantificação de shunt pelo método cintigráfico e gasométrico, 6 (21,4%) apenas pelo método cintigráfico e 1 caso (3,6%) pelo método gasométrico apenas. A PaO2 média entre os pacientes com DVIP graus I e II por ecocardiografia foi 89,1 ± 11,0mmHg, enquanto naqueles com DVIP classificadas como graus III e IV foi 74,7 ± 13,2mmHg (p = 0,01). A média dos valores de shunt por cintilografia nos 27 pacientes submetidos ao exame foi 14,9 ± 9,0% do débito cardíaco (mínimo 6,9% e máximo 39%), sendo 11,7 ± 3,8% nos pacientes com DVIP graus I e II, e 26,3 ± 9,7% nos pacientes com DVIP graus III e IV (p = 0,01). A média dos valores de shunt pelo teste com O2a 100% foi 9,8 ± 3,9%, sendo 8,3 ± 2,3% nos pacientes com DVIP graus I e II, e 16,3 ± 2,6% nos pacientes com DVIP graus III e IV (p < 0,001). Observou-se uma relação estatisticamente significativa entre a graduação de DVIP por ecocardiografia e o valor de shunt aferido por gasometria com O2 a 100% (rs = 0,609, p < 0,01) e por cintilografia (rs = 0,567, p < 0,001). Observou-se relação estatisticamente significativa entre os valores de shunt medidos por cintilografia e aqueles medidos por gasometria com O2 a 100% nos 21 pacientes que se submeteram à quantificação de shunt pelos 2 métodos (rs = 0,666, p < 0,001). A avaliação semi-quantitativa do grau de DVIP por ecocardiografia apresentou correlação moderada a boa com os valores de shunt aferidos pelos dois outros métodos estudados, sendo que a melhor correlação foi observada com o teste com O2 a 100%.
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Objetivou-se avaliar a produção e a qualidade do biogás e do biofertilizante obtidos em biodigestores abastecidos com dejetos de suínos, nas fases inicial, crescimento e terminação, alimentados com dietas formuladas à base de milho ou sorgo. Foram utilizados 20 biodigestores de bancada, com tempo de retenção hidráulica de 30 dias, e cargas diárias que continham 4,0 a 6,0% de sólidos totais (ST) e 3,6 a 5,2% de sólidos voláteis (SV). Nos efluentes dos biodigestores, foram verificados teores médios de ST variando de 1,6 a 2,0% e de SV entre 1,2 e 1,6%. As reduções médias de ST foram de 57,7 a 64,7% e de SV de 61,7 a 69,0%, sendo que houve diferença somente na fase de terminação, na qual as maiores reduções médias foram para biodigestores abastecidos com dejetos de animais alimentados com dietas à base de milho. Nos biodigestores abastecidos com dejetos de animais em fase inicial e de crescimento, alimentados com dietas formuladas à base de milho, foram verificadas maiores produções médias de biogás e os maiores potenciais médios de produção de biogás. Os potenciais médios obtidos foram 0,033; 0,181; 0,685; 0,788 e 1,132 m³ por kg de afluente, estrume, ST adicionados, SV adicionados e SV reduzidos, respectivamente. Não foram verificadas diferenças quanto ao teor médio de metano no biogás entre dietas e fases. As concentrações médias dos nutrientes N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Fe, Mn, Zn e Cu no afluente e efluente dos biodigestores variaram entre as dietas e fases.