Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Binder treatment and lubricant system for aluminium P/M

Organic binders are used in premixes for powder metallurgy applications to prevent dusting and segregation. This is a particular problem for aluminium powder metallurgy because the dust is a potential safety hazard. The binder must also burn out completely at low temperatures in an inert environment and not react with the metal powders. It is demonstrated that cellulose acetate, polyvinyl acetate and polyvinyl alcohol are effective dedusting agents but they react with the metal powders during sintering and decrease the sintered density. Paraffin wan is an effect dedusting agent that provided die wall lubricity, does not interfere with sintering and increases tensile strength and ductility.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.

Morphological shifts in island-dwelling birds: The roles of generalist foraging and niche expansion

Passerine birds living on islands are usually larger than their mainland counterparts, in terms of both body size and bill size. One explanation for this island rule is that shifts in morphology are an adaptation to facilitate ecological niche expansion. In insular passerines, for instance, increased bill size may facilitate generalist foraging because it allows access to a broader range of feeding niches. Here we use morphologically and ecologically divergent races of white-eyes (Zosteropidae) to test three predictions of this explanation: (1) island populations show a wider feeding niche than mainland populations; (2) island-dwelling populations are made up of individual generalists; and (3) within insular populations there is a positive association between size and degree of foraging generalism. Our results provide only partial support for the traditional explanation. In agreement with the core prediction, island populations of white-eye do consistently display a wider feeding niche than comparative mainland populations. However, observations of individually marked birds reveal that island-dwelling individuals are actually more specialized than expected by chance. Additionally, neither large body size nor large bill size are associated with generalist foraging behavior per se. These latter results remained consistent whether we base our tests on natural foraging behavior or on observations at an experimental tree, and whether we use data from single or multiple cohorts. Taken together, our results suggest that generalist foraging and niche expansion are not the full explanation for morphological shifts in island-dwelling white-eyes. Hence, we review briefly five alternative explanations for morphological divergence in insular populations: environmental determination of morphology, reduced predation pressure, physiological optimization, limited dispersal, and intraspecific dominance.

Efficacy, timing and method of application of fungicides for management of sorghum ergot caused by Claviceps africana

Trials conducted in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2002 demonstrated that fungicides belonging to the triazole group were the most effective in minimising the severity of infection of sorghum by Claviceps africana, the causal agent of sorghum ergot. Triadimenol ( as Bayfidan 250EC) at 0.125 kg a. i./ha was the most effective fungicide. A combination of the systemic activated resistance compound acibenzolar-S-methyl ( as Bion 50WG) at 0.05 kg a. i./ha and mancozeb ( as Penncozeb 750DF) at 1.5 kg a. i./ha has the potential to provide protection against the pathogen, should triazole-resistant isolates be detected. Timing and method of fungicide application are important. Our results suggest that the triazole fungicides have no systemic activity in sorghum panicles, necessitating the need for multiple applications from first anthesis to the end of flowering, whereas acibenzolar-S-methyl is most effective when applied 4 days before flowering. The flat fan nozzles tested in the trials provided higher levels of protection against C. africana and greater droplet deposition on panicles than the tested hollow cone nozzles. Application of triadimenol by a fixed wing aircraft was as efficacious as application through a tractor-mounted boom spray.

Variation of bulk properties of anaerobic granules with wastewater type

Development of a granular sludge with high strength, high biological activity and a narrow settling distribution is necessary for optimal operation of high-rate upflow anaerobic treatment systems. Several studies have compared granules produced from different wastewaters but these have largely been from laboratory-fed reactors or compared granules from full-scale reactors fed similar wastewater types. Though two authors have commented on the inferiority of granules produced by a protein-based feed, the properties of these granules have not been characterised. In this paper, granules from full-scale reactors treating fruit and vegetable cannery effluent, two brewery effluents and a pig abattoir (slaughterhouse) were compared in terms of basic composition, size distribution, density, settling velocity, shear strength, and EPS content. The results supported previous qualitative observations by other researchers that indicate granule properties depend more on wastewater type rather than reactor design or operating conditions such as pre-acidification level. The cannery-fed granules bad excellent shear strength, settling distribution and density. Granules from the two brewery-fed reactors had statistically the same bulk properties, which were still acceptable for upflow applications. The protein-grown granule had poor strength and settling velocity. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel target-field method for magnetic resonance shim coils: III. Shielded zonal and tesseral coils

This paper continues the development of a new approach for the design of shim and gradient coils, used in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) applications. A cylindrical primary coil of radius a and length 2L is placed inside a co-axial shield cylinder of radius b. An active shielding strategy is used to create a desired target field at an arbitrarily specified (cylindrical) location within the primary coil, and to annul the field at a certain radius outside the shield. The form of the interior target field may be chosen arbitrarily by the designer, although zonal and tesseral harmonics are typically used in MRI applications. The method presented here designs coil windings on both the primary and shielding cylinders, to produce fields that conform to the specified interior target field and the annulled field exterior to the shield. An additional feature of the method presented here is that the target field inside the primary coil is matched at two different radii, to improve overall accuracy. The method is illustrated by designing several shielded shim coils, for creating higher order tesseral fields located asymmetrically within the coil. The simpler case of pure zonal fields is discussed separately and applied to the design of some higher order shielded coils.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Pseudo-randomness of round-off errors in discretized linear maps on the plane

We analyze the sequences of round-off errors of the orbits of a discretized planar rotation, from a probabilistic angle. It was shown [Bosio & Vivaldi, 2000] that for a dense set of parameters, the discretized map can be embedded into an expanding p-adic dynamical system, which serves as a source of deterministic randomness. For each parameter value, these systems can generate infinitely many distinct pseudo-random sequences over a finite alphabet, whose average period is conjectured to grow exponentially with the bit-length of the initial condition (the seed). We study some properties of these symbolic sequences, deriving a central limit theorem for the deviations between round-off and exact orbits, and obtain bounds concerning repetitions of words. We also explore some asymptotic problems computationally, verifying, among other things, that the occurrence of words of a given length is consistent with that of an abstract Bernoulli sequence.