Don't make war, make elections : Franchise extension and violence in XIXth-century Colombia

This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual problems in defining and measuring democracy, but also because political institutions and violence are jointly determined. We take advantage of an experiment of history to examine the impact of one simple, measurable dimension of democracy (the size of the franchise) on con- flict, while at the same time attempting to overcome the identification problem. In 1853, Colombia established universal male suffrage. Using a simple difference-indifferences specification at the municipal level, we find that municipalities where more voters were enfranchised relative to their population experienced fewer violent political battles while the reform was in effect. The results are robust to including a number of additional controls. Moreover, we investigate the potential mechanisms driving the results. In particular, we look at which components of the proportion of new voters in 1853 explain the results, and we examine if results are stronger in places with more political competition and state capacity. We interpret our findings as suggesting that violence in nineteenth-century Colombia was a technology for political elites to compete for the rents from power, and that democracy constituted an alternative way to compete which substituted violence.

The Kasparov-World Match

The Kasparov-World match was initiated by Microsoft with sponsorship from the bank First USA. The concept was that Garry Kasparov as White would play the rest of the world on the Web: one ply would be played per day and the World Team was to vote for its move. The Kasparov-World game was a success from many points of view. It certainly gave thousands the feeling of facing the world’s best player across the board and did much for the future of the game. Described by Kasparov as “phenomenal ... the most complex in chess history”, it is probably a worthy ‘Greatest Game’ candidate. Computer technology has given chess a new mode of play and taken it to new heights: the experiment deserves to be repeated. We look forward to another game and experience of this quality although it will be difficult to surpass the event we have just enjoyed. We salute and thank all those who contributed - sponsors, moderator, coaches, unofficial analysts, organisers, technologists, voters and our new friends.

The legitimacy of foreign investors: individual attitudes toward the impact of multinational enterprises

Purpose – This article aims to analyze individual attitudes toward the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on local businesses. These individual attitudes are important in understanding voters' preferences, which studies show to affect governmental policies. MNEs' market entry location decisions are conditioned by the host's political environment. Moreover, MNEs' attempts to attain legitimacy in their host contexts ultimately affect their bottom line, so how the public perceive MNEs matters. Design/methodology/approach – Using a large-scale data set, the paper carefully delineates between a set of potential mechanisms influencing individual attitudes to globalization in the context of individuals' attitudes toward the impact of MNEs on local businesses. Findings – The article demonstrates that there is remarkable heterogeneity and complexity in individual attitudes toward the impact of MNEs on local businesses and that these attitudes differ across regions and across countries. It is found that better educated individuals, those employed in the private sector, and those who do not have nationalistic tendencies are more likely to consider that MNEs are not harming local firms, while the opposite holds for those who are employed in “less skilled” occupations, such as those working in plants or in elementary occupations. The article also provides evidence that individuals' attitudes are determined by more than the labor market calculations these individuals might have. In fact, the socializing influence of education and the socializing impact of the individuals' type/sector of occupation also significantly determine the individual attitudes under study. Originality/value – This area of research remains substantially under-developed in the literature that analyzes individual attitudes toward globalization, which focuses on individual attitudes toward trade and immigration. Thus, the article not only aims to broaden the work on individual attitudes toward globalization, but it also aims to facilitate further discussion on the specific topic of individual attitudes toward MNEs.

A paradoxical presidency: Nicolas Sarkozy, 2007-2012

The Sarkozy presidency is shot through with paradox and contrast: between a well-elected president swiftly loathed by most voters; a ‘hyper-president’ who probably weakened the office; a talented party leader who lost effective control of his party; a right-wing president who was readily compared to Tony Blair; and an ambitious reformer who promised a clean break with the indecision of his two predecessors but whose record was more timid than his rhetoric. This article interprets Sarkozy’s record in the context of the presidential office, the specific circumstances of his presidency, and of the president’s own personality, skills and shortcomings.

Risk aversion, overconfidence and private information as determinants of majority thresholds

We present and experimentally test a theoretical model of majority threshold determination as a function of voters’ risk preferences. The experimental results confirm the theoretical prediction of a positive correlation between the voter's risk aversion and the corresponding preferred majority threshold. Furthermore, the experimental results show that a voter's preferred majority threshold negatively relates to the voter's confidence about how others will vote. Moreover, in a treatment in which individuals receive a private signal about others’ voting behaviour, the confidence-related motivation of behaviour loses ground to the signal's strength.

Race as political strategy by US presidential candidates: a case study

Race has played an important part in US presidential politics in contemporary history. Different political parties and candidates have followed covert strategies playing on the prejudices of white voters both cognitively and emotionally by linking racerelated issues to the majority's individual and group interests. This elite discourse carried to the public by the mainstream media, along with media's practices of stereotyping, priming, framing and agenda setting, help to justify racial prejudice, discrimination against minorities and their marginalized status, while maintaining the status quo. Taking the social constructionist position, this case study examines the opinions expressed by a sample of undecided voters selected from different geographic locations at various stages of the 1992 US presidential campaign under the themes 'Candidates' racial prejudice' and 'Race is used as political strategy by candidates.'

The Εffects of censoring and the spiral of silence on focus group interviews: a case study of discussions on immigration

Focus groups assess the oral expressions of opinions of participants on a particular topic under discussion. They have several advantages over other qualitative research methodologies such as depth interviews because focus groups can discover people's attitudes and motivations while revealing the underlying views or values held by them. However, as focus groups elicit more socially expressed and contested opinions and discourses than Individual opinions, their discussions can be contaminated by the situational constraints and social pressures within the group. These include group dynamics, confonnity, censoring, the Group Leader Effect, the Groupthink Syndrome, the effects of the Spiral of Silence, characteristics of group members, and the climate of opinion within the group and in society at the time. This case study examines the effects of these factors on the 'horizontal interactions' between group members during a discussion with undecided voters about immigration, using two situations where focus group members took offence at comments made by another and challenged them, when the topic under discussion was personally relevant to them. Other members of the group, offending or otherwise, then remained silent, retracted their opinions to placate the challenger, and expressed neutral or conciliatory opinions in an effort to return the discussion to a state of equilibrium. It then examines some measures that can reduce such contaminations, including
methodological triangulation, where several methods and methodological
approaches are used to examine a given phenomenon, instead of just one method, such as the sole use of transcripts of focus group discussions.

Re-gendering labour: class and gender determinants of New South Wales electoral behaviour 1930-32

Historians have neglected tbe impact of female enfranchisement on Australian electoral outcomes. This papers employs multivariate analysis to explore electoral behaviour in New South Wales during the Great Depression. It argues that women were less prone to support Labor than men, but that women in paid employment constituted a partial exception to this pattern. In 1932 the conservative parties significantly eroded Labor's working-class support. Part of this success was due to the ability of employers to coerce workers with the threat of dismissal. Female wage earners were particularly vulnerable to this coercion. Conservative electoral appeals recast masculinity in terms of family responsibility rather than class assertion. Conflict in the household economy possibly influenced women to vote against Labor due to its identification with the cause of male breadwinners. Overall female voting behaviour was more stable than that of men and this despite the higb profile of issues that would have been expected particularly to influence female voters.

Elections and representations in local government: A Victorian case study

This article examines the application of different views of representation in the electoral systems at local government level: interest, corporate and mirror representation. The electoral framework underpins the process of representation, influencing both who are eligible to become voters and how their votes are collected and counted. The paper examines the  interrelationship between representation and the electoral framework in local government in Victoria. We use a historical analysis, and identify a long period of interest representation; a short, relatively recent period of corporate representation; and an attempt to introduce some elements of mirror representation. We conclude by arguing that local electoral reform needs to take into account the multiple meanings of representation.

A survey study of voting behavior and political participation in Zhejiang

Two existing models are used to conceptualize the constrained and limited participation in the communist system. The mobilization model suggests that participation was so mobilized by the party/state that it was largely meaningless, while the disengagement model supports the idea that many communist citizens adopted non-participatory behaviors such as non-voting as a means of protest. This paper attempts to demonstrate the importance of a third model – the emergent democratic culture model. The survey results show that the participation index is in proportion to the number of elections in which a villager is involved; and a growing number of voters in Zhejiang are developing citizen-initiated participation, with rights consciousness.

This research finds that the level of participation is influenced by three major factors: the perceived worth of the election itself, regularity of electoral procedures, and the fairness of electoral procedures. It also finds that parochial political culture and political apathy still exist, and the emergent democratic consciousness falls short of an ideal democratic standard. While a highly democratic culture helps to develop village democracy, the apathetic attitude continues to support the authoritarian leadership and structure in many villages. The paper also gives an account of survey research in rural China and offers a thoughtful critique of the use of voting and non-voting as the sole indicator of political participation.

The Australian class structure and Australian politics 1931 - 40

This paper presents the results of an analysis of the class structure of interwar Australia based largely on the 1933 Commonwealth census. It reviews previous analyses by academics but although contemporary journalists and political strategists. It develops an estimate of the class composition of the electorate as distinct from the general population and attempts to define the class position of voters outside of the paid workforce. It considers the question of to what extent Labor needed non-working-class votes to secure an electoral majority and how the differing social composition of the Australian states impacted on electoral outcomes and Labor strategies. It employs the method of bounds to develop some preliminary conclusions about the electoral behaviour of different social groups and concludes with some observations on the divided nature of the Australian working class and the competing strategies that parties developed in their search for an electoral majority.

The taxpayers'€™ charter : a case study in tax administration

The Australian Taxpayers'€™ Charter was introduced in 1997 and a revised version in November 2003. This is therefore an appropriate time to review the contribution of this initiative. This article traces the development of such modern charters and then specifically the development of tax charters. The Australian Taxpayers' Charter and the Australian Tax Office'€™s ("€œATO"€) experience with it are then examined. Among other possible advantages, the Charter may be used as a measure of the ATO'€™s performance. Taxpayers’ views regarding the extent to which the ATO meets its obligations under the Taxpayers'€™ Charter, as expressed in two surveys of Australian voters (N = 2,040 and 2,374), are presented. Generally the taxpayers are supportive. The results of the survey also support the ATO'€™s view that the Charter fits in with compliance policy. Finally, the Charter demonstrates how initiatives in tax administration might he successfully achieved.

The citizen's charter : how such initiatives might be more effective

In Public Policy and Administration Taylor (1999) concluded that the charter system was inadequate to safeguard consumers’ and citizens’ interests and that they would have to have a greater input to ensure success. Following its introduction in 1991, the Charter initiative certainly made an impact and by 1997 there were 40 main charters and perhaps 10,000 local ones. However since then the original Citizen’. Charter has, in the words of one commentator, ‘perished, or at least atrophied’ Drewry (2002, p.12). There is little doubt that it could have been more effective. For example, tax charters seem to have had more success - indeed the UK Taxpayers’ Charter pre-dates the Citizen’. Charter, having been introduced in 1986. This paper therefore reviews the Charter initiative in the light of the development of tax charters and describes a particularly successful one - the Australian Taxpayers’ Charter - that continues to provide a clear focus on twelve basic principles of tax administration. An important factor in the Australian success appears to be the more strategic approach taken with respect to the implementation, monitoring and development of its Taxpayers’ Charter. The paper also presents relevant results of two surveys (N = 2,040 and 2,374) on the extent to which Australian voters consider the Australian Tax Office adheres to the principles outlined in the Charter. The evidence is consistent with Taylor’. (1999) views and concludes that initiatives such as the Citizen’. Charter would benefit from more strategic or systematic preparation that incorporates the views and expertise of a wide range of stakeholders before being introduced and for the initiative to become an integral part of the approach to standards of service thereafter.

Generational change : regional security and Australian engagement with Asia

The Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has recently announced plans to develop greater regional integration and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.

Historically, Australian opinion, however, has expressed some anxiety about forging closer economic, political and security ties with Asia. Using trend data from the Australian Election Study and the Lowy Institute Poll, this article examines changes in Australian public opinion on closer engagement with Asia and whether the Australian public is likely to support the Rudd government’s push towards developing deeper regional diplomacy. The article finds a shift in opinion since the 1990s with a younger generation of voters who are moderately supportive of Australia’s engagement with Asia.

The ALP after 2004

In 2004, for the first time in the two decades for which Australian Election Study (AES) data has become available, more blue-collar workers cast their primary vote for the Coalition parties than for Labor. Blue-collar support for Labor had partially recovered under Beazley in 1998 and 2001 following its dramatic drop under Keating in 1996 but it dropped to even lower levels under Latham in 2004. This paper analyses AES survey data, the actual voting results in each federal electorate and the demographic characteristics of those electorates to discuss the nature of Labor’s latest national election defeat and the reasons for it. There is considerable disagreement among commentators as to whether Labor has lost the last four national elections because it has failed to reconnect with its traditional voter base; or because it has failed to go beyond that base. Much of the disagreement centres on how blue-collar workers are to be understood. Are they ‘battlers’ and victims of ‘globalisation’ or have they become prosperous, upwardly-mobile and ‘aspirational’? Related questions include whether the most salient issues for blue-collar voters are economic, or cultural; and whether the most important inequalities in Australian society should be measured in terms of income; or occupation; or geographic location (including degree of distance from the inner-city). This paper analyses the policies presented in the 2004 election and engages with informed journalistic analyses, and contributions from past and present politicians, in addition to the work of political scientists, to help make sense of precisely where and why Labor lost support in 2004 and the implications this has for future ALP policy and strategy. The paper also contributes to the longer-term debates about the reasons for Howard’s electoral ascendancy since 1996; and the role and constituency of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.