Taxonomy for rainfall events based on pollutant wash-off potential in urban areas

Conventional rainfall classification for modelling and prediction is quantity based. This approach can lead to inaccuracies in stormwater quality modelling due to the assignment of stochastic pollutant parameters to a rainfall event. A taxonomy for natural rainfall events in the context of stormwater quality is presented based on an in-depth investigation of the influence of rainfall characteristics on stormwater quality. In the research study, the natural rainfall events were classified into three types based on average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration and the classification was found to be independent of the catchment characteristics. The proposed taxonomy provides an innovative concept in stormwater quality modelling and prediction and will contribute to enhancing treatment design for stormwater quality mitigation.

Undrained sediment loading key to long-runout submarine mass movements : evidence from the Caribbean Volcanic Arc

Long undersea debris runout can be facilitated by a boundary layer formed by weak marine sediments under a moving slide mass. Undrained loading of such offshore sediment results in a profound drop of basal shear resistance, compared to subaerial shear resistance, enabling long undersea runout. Thus large long-runout submarine landslides are not truly enigmatic (Voight and Elsworth 1992, 1997), but are understandable in terms of conventional geotechnical principles. A corollary is that remoulded undrained strength, and not friction angle, should be used for basal resistance in numerical simulations. This hypothesis is testable via drilling and examining the structure at the soles of undersea debris avalanches for indications of incorporation of sheared marine sediments, by tests of soil properties, and by simulations. Such considerations of emplacement process are an aim of ongoing research in the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean Sea), where multiple offshore debris avalanche and dome-collapse debris deposits have been identified since 1999 on swath bathymetric surveys collected in five oceanographic cruises. This paper reviews the prehistoric and historic collapses that have occurred offshore of Antilles arc islands and summarizes ongoing research on emplacement processes.

Reconstructing the event stratigraphy from the complex structural - stratigraphic architecture of an Archaean volcanic – intrusive – sedimentary succession : the Boorara Domain, Eastern Goldfields Superterrane, Western Australia

Two main deformational phases are recognised in the Archaean Boorara Domain of the Kalgoorlie Terrane, Eastern Goldfields Superterrane, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, primarily involving southover- north thrust faulting that repeated and thickened the stratigraphy, followed by east northeast – west-southwest shortening that resulted in macroscale folding of the greenstone lithologies. The domain preserves mid-greenschist facies metamorphic grade, with an increase to lower amphibolite metamorphic grade towards the north of the region. As a result of the deformation and metamorphism, individual stratigraphic horizons are difficult to trace continuously throughout the entire domain. Volcanological and sedimentological textures and structures, primary lithological contacts, petrography and geochemistry have been used to correlate lithofacies between faultbounded structural blocks. The correlated stratigraphic sequence for the Boorara Domain comprises quartzo-feldspathic turbidite packages, overlain by high-Mg tholeiitic basalt (lower basalt), coherent and clastic dacite facies, intrusive and extrusive komatiite units, an overlying komatiitic basalt unit (upper basalt), and at the stratigraphic top of the sequence, volcaniclastic quartz-rich turbidites. Reconstruction of the stratigraphy and consideration of emplacement dynamics has allowed reconstruction of the emplacement history and setting of the preserved sequence. This involves a felsic, mafic and ultramafic magmatic system emplaced as high-level intrusions, with localised emergent volcanic centres, into a submarine basin in which active sedimentation was occurring.

Contraceptive changes after reproductive events among Australian women born in 1973 to 1978: A longitudinal study from 1996 to 2009

Background Women change contraception as they try to conceive, space births, and limit family size. This longitudinal analysis examines contraception changes after reproductive events such as birth, miscarriage or termination among Australian women born from 1973 to 1978 to identify potential opportunities to increase the effectiveness of contraceptive information and service provision. Methods Between 1996 and 2009, 5,631 Australian women randomly sampled from the Australian universal health insurance (Medicare) database completed five self-report postal surveys. Three longitudinal logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between reproductive events (birth only, birth and miscarriage, miscarriage only, termination only, other multiple events, and no new event) and subsequent changes in contraceptive use (start using, stop using, switch method) compared with women who continued to use the same method. Results After women experienced only a birth, or a birth and a miscarriage, they were more likely to start using contraception. Women who experienced miscarriages were more likely to stop using contraception. Women who experienced terminations were more likely to switch methods. There was a significant interaction between reproductive events and time indicating more changes in contraceptive use as women reach their mid-30s. Conclusion Contraceptive use increases after the birth of a child, but decreases after miscarriage indicating the intention for family formation and spacing between children. Switching contraceptive methods after termination suggests these pregnancies were unintended and possibly due to contraceptive failure. Women’s contact with health professionals around the time of reproductive events provides an opportunity to provide contraceptive services.

Living through extreme weather events and natural disasters: How resilient are our high-rise high-density typologies?

The inner city Brisbane suburbs of the West End peninsula are poised for redevelopment. Located within walking distance to CBD workplaces, home to Queensland’s highest value cultural precinct, and high quality riverside parklands, there is currently a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to redevelop parts of the suburb to create a truly urban neighbourhood. According to a local community association, local residents agree and embrace the concept of high-density living, but are opposed to the high-rise urban form (12 storeys) advocated by the City’s planning authority (BCC, 2011) and would prefer to see medium-rise (5-8 storeys) medium-density built form. Brisbane experienced a major flood event which inundated the peninsula suburbs of West End in summer January 2011. The vulnerability of taller buildings to the vagaries of climate and more extreme weather events and their reliance on main electricity was exposed when power outages immediately before, during and after the flood disaster seriously limited occupants’ access and egress when elevators were disabled. Not all buildings were flooded but dwellings quickly became unliveable due to disabled air-conditioning. Some tall buildings remained uninhabitable for several weeks after the event. This paper describes an innovative design research method applied to the complex problem of resilient, sustainable neighbourhood form in subtropical cities, in which a thorough comparative analysis of a range of multiple-dwelling types has revealed the impact that government policy regarding design of the physical environment has on a community’s resilience. The outcomes advocate the role of climate-responsive design in averting the rising human capital and financial costs of natural disasters and climate change.

Modelling web-server Flash Events

A Flash Event (FE) represents a period of time when a web-server experiences a dramatic increase in incoming traffic, either following a newsworthy event that has prompted users to locate and access it, or as a result of redirection from other popular web or social media sites. This usually leads to network congestion and Quality-of-Service (QoS) degradation. These events can be mistaken for Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks aimed at disrupting the server. Accurate detection of FEs and their distinction from DDoS attacks is important, since different actions need to be undertaken by network administrators in these two cases. However, lack of public domain FE datasets hinders research in this area. In this paper we present a detailed study of flash events and classify them into three broad categories. In addition, the paper describes FEs in terms of three key components: the volume of incoming traffic, the related source IP-addresses, and the resources being accessed. We present such a FE model with minimal parameters and use publicly available datasets to analyse and validate our proposed model. The model can be used to generate different types of FE traffic, closely approximating real-world scenarios, in order to facilitate research into distinguishing FEs from DDoS attacks.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

Timing and emplacement dynamics of newly recognised mass flow deposits at ~ 8–12 ka offshore Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat : how submarine stratigraphy can complement subaerial eruption histories

This contribution describes two mass movement deposits (total volume ~0.5 km3) identified in seven marine cores located 8 to 15 km offshore southern Montserrat, West Indies. The deposits were emplaced in the last 35 ka and have not previously been recognised in either the subaerial or distal submarine records. Age constraints, provided by radiocarbon dating, show that an explosive volcanic eruption occurred at ca 8–12 ka, emplacing a primary eruption-related deposit that overlies a large (~0.3 km3) reworked bioclastic and volcaniclastic flow deposit, formed from a shelf collapse between 8 and 35 ka. The origin of these deposits has been deduced through the correlation of marine sediment cores, component analysis and geochemical analysis. The 8–12 ka primary volcanic deposit was likely derived from a highly-erosive pyroclastic flow from the Soufrière Hills volcano that entered the ocean and mixed with the water column forming a water-supported density current. Previous investigations of the eruption record suggested that there was a hiatus in activity at the Soufrière Hills volcano between 16 and 6 ka. The ca 8–12 ka eruptive episode identified here shows that this hiatus was shorter than previously hypothesised, and thus highlights the importance of obtaining an accurate and completemarine record of events offshore from volcanic islands and incorporating such data into eruption history reconstructions. Comparisons with the submarine deposit characteristics of the 2003 dome collapse also suggests that the ~8–12 ka eruptive episode was more explosive than eruptions from the current eruptive episode.

Large igneous provinces and silicic large igneous provinces : progress in our understanding over the last 25 years

Large Igneous Provinces are exceptional intraplate igneous events throughout Earth’s history. Their significance and potential global impact is related to the total volume of magma intruded and released during these geologically brief events (peak eruptions are often within 1-5 Myrs duration) where millions to tens of millions of cubic kilometers of magma are produced. In some cases, at least 1% of the Earth’s surface has been directly covered in volcanic rock, being equivalent to the size of small continents with comparable crustal thicknesses. Large Igneous Provinces are thus important, albeit episodic episodes of new crust addition. However, most magmatism is basaltic so that contributions to crustal growth will not always be picked up in zircon geochronology studies that better trace major episodes of extension-related silicic magmatism and the silicic Large Igneous Provinces. Much headway has been made on our understanding of these anomalous igneous events over the last 25 years, driving many new ideas and models. This includes their: 1) global spatial and temporal distribution, with a long-term average of one event approximately every 20 Myrs, but a clear clustering of events at times of supercontinent break-up – Large Igneous Provinces are thus an integral part of the Wilson cycle and are becoming an increasingly important tool in reconnecting dispersed continental fragments; 2) compositional diversity that in part reflects their crustal setting of ocean basins, and continental interiors and margins where in the latter setting, LIP magmatism can be silicicdominant; 3) mineral and energy resources with major PGE and precious metal resources being hosted in these provinces, as well as magmatism impacting on the hydrocarbon potential of volcanic basins and rifted margins through enhancing source rock maturation, providing fluid migration pathways, and trap formation; 4) biospheric, hydrospheric and atmospheric impacts, with Large Igneous Provinces now widely regarded as a key trigger mechanism for mass extinctions, although the exact kill mechanism(s) are still being resolved; 5) role in mantle geodynamics and thermal evolution of the Earth, by potentially recording the transport of material from the lower mantle or core-mantle boundary to the Earth's surface and being a fundamental component in whole mantle convection models; and 6) recognition on the inner planets where the lack of plate tectonics and erosional processes and planetary antiquity means that the very earliest record of LIP events during planetary evolution may be better preserved than on Earth.