Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate - Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM

In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16A degrees N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to `upper tropospheric warming effect' predominates over the `moisture build-up effect' in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change.

IS A DEEP ONE-CELL MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION ESSENTIAL FOR THE FLUX TRANSPORT SOLAR DYNAMO?

The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation within the convection zone, with the equatorward return flow at its bottom. In view of the recent claims that the return flow occurs at a much shallower depth, we explore whether a meridional circulation with such a shallow return flow can still retain the attractive features of the flux transport dynamo (such as a proper butterfly diagram, the proper phase relation between the toroidal and poloidal fields). We consider additional cells of the meridional circulation below the shallow return flow-both the case of multiple cells radially stacked above one another and the case of more complicated cell patterns. As long as there is an equatorward flow in low latitudes at the bottom of the convection zone, we find that the solar behavior is approximately reproduced. However, if there is either no flow or a poleward flow at the bottom of the convection zone, then we cannot reproduce solar behavior. On making the turbulent diffusivity low, we still find periodic behavior, although the period of the cycle becomes unrealistically large. In addition, with a low diffusivity, we do not get the observed correlation between the polar field at the sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, which is reproduced when diffusivity is high. On introducing radially downward pumping, we get a more reasonable period and more solar-like behavior even with low diffusivity.

Ranking general circulation models for India using TOPSIS

Eleven general circulation models/global climate models (GCMs) - BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1 - are evaluated for Indian climate conditions using the performance indicator, skill score (SS). Two climate variables, temperature T (at three levels, i.e. 500, 700, 850 mb) and precipitation rate (Pr) are considered resulting in four SS-based evaluation criteria (T500, T700, T850, Pr). The multicriterion decision-making method, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, is applied to rank 11 GCMs. Efforts are made to rank GCMs for the Upper Malaprabha catchment and two river basins, namely, Krishna and Mahanadi (covered by 17 and 15 grids of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees, respectively). Similar efforts are also made for India (covered by 73 grid points of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for which an ensemble of GFDL2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, UKMO-HADCM3, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0 and GFDL2.1 is found to be suitable. It is concluded that the proposed methodology can be applied to similar situations with ease.

A ground hydrologic model with inclusion of a layer of vegetation canopy that can interact with general-circulation model

In this paper, a ground hydrologic model(GHM) is presented in which the vapor, heat and momentum exchanges between ground surface covers (including vegetation canopy) and atmosphere is described more realistically. The model is used to simulate three sets of field data and results from the numerical simulation agree with the field data well. GHM has been tested using input data generated by general circulation model (GCM) runs for both the North American regions and the Chinese regions, The results from GHM are quite different from those of GHMs in GCMs. It shows that a more active concerted effort on the land surface process study to provide a physically realistic GHM for predicting the exchange between land and atmosphere is important and necessary.

Tidal oscillations at the head of Monterey Submarine Canyon and their relation to oceanographic sampling and the circulation of water in Monterey Bay. Annual report, Part 6, September 1972

During a 25-hour hydrographic times series at two stations near the head of Monterey Submarine Canyon, an internal tide was observed with an amplitude of 80 to 115 m in water depths of 120 and 220 m respectively. These large oscillations produced daily variations in hydrographic and chemical parameters that were of the same magnitude as seasonal variations in Monterey Bay. Computed velocities associated with the internal tide were on the order of 10 em/sec, and this tidally induced circulation may have a significant role in the exchange of deep water between Monterey Submarine Canyon and the open ocean. (PDF contains 49 pages)

Modelling of the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation (Report of Working Group 7)

This review focuses on modelling ocean circulation and its variability in the subarctic North Pacific; it addresses issues specific to that region, and not the subject of ocean modelling in general. The performance of existing models is assessed in relation to observations in the upper ocean, intermediate waters and deep/abyssal waters. (PDF contains 87 pages)

The Circulation of Monterey Bay and Related Processes

(PDF contains 114 pages)

Physical circulation measurements in Pamlico Sound, used to locate new oyster sanctuaries

The population of eastern oyster, C. virginica, has declined over the last century on most areas of the east and gulf coasts. North Carolina’s restoration efforts depend on the construction of subtidal oyster reefs to be used as broodstock sanctuaries in Pamlico Sound, NC. Successful restoration of the oyster population requires several thriving reefs connected as a meta-population. C. virginica has a 2-3 week larval stage, during which it gradually settles through the water column. Larvae that can travel from one reef to another during that stage form the basis of a meta-population. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Flood circulation in oligomictic lakes: an undervalued reason for restriction of zooplankton production [Translation from: Memorie dell'Istituto Italiano di Idrobiologia Dott.Marco de Marchi 22 9-52, 1967]

Dormancy has been observed in several species of Cyclops. Animals in dormancy are characterised by almost complete inactivity of the main appendages and sluggish intestinal peristalsis. In Cyclops vicinus dormancy can take place in copepod stages III (19%), IV (78%) and V (3%) but one and the same animal only in one developmental stage. The author gives his own results between frequency of dormancy and photoperiod (20 C, 1000 lux). He concludes that dormancy in C. vicinus can be influenced by day length and can be ended prematurely by short day length.

Incidences de la modification de la circulation des eaux sur l'hydrochimie et le degré de contamination bacterienne d'un estuaire eutrophe tropical

In order to control the proliferation of floating aquatic vegetation in Côte d'Ivoire, a coastal inlet, allowing a direct communication between the Comoe river and the ocean, was created in September 1987. The impact of this operation on the hydrochemistry (salinity, nutrients, algal biomass) and the bacterial contamination level was studied in the area close to the Vridi canal.

La circulation superficielle dans la partie occidentale du Golfe de Guinée

Direct current measurements carried out for 10 years in the Gulf of Guinea clearly show the importance of transverse circulation. The general pattern of currents is characterized by an anticyclonic gyre. The seasonal variations of this circulation are calculated through the study of the 3-monthly averaged geostrophic currents. The biological consequences of such a circulation are outlined.

Circulation dans la partie orientale de l'Atlantique sud

The authors studied the circulation in the South Tropical Atlantic from hydrology and current measurements made during a cruise of the N.O. Capricorne in Nov 1971. Direct current measurements confirm the existence of the eastwards South Equatorial Counter-Current. The authors discuss the counter-current as confirmed by current measurements and high salinity core.

Variabilité, circulation et chlorophylle dans la région du Dôme d'Angola en février-mars 1971

In February-March 1971 the hydrological conditions off Angola did not display the thermal dome mapped by Mazeika's averages (1967). Cold water cells observed are connected at the surface to a sinuous boundary between low-salinity coastal waters and high-salinity tropical oceanic waters. That boundary coincides rather regularly with an area where trades and SW winds alternate; photosynthesis growths rapidly in a thermoclinal layer that rises until 10 m of the surface but never outcrops. Below a poor and permanent homogeneous surface layer, chlorophyll concentrations show a distribution which is typical of divergence areas. Geostrophical and measured currents show off a transient process in horizontal and vertical movements, however the general curvature of the circulation is propitious to upwelling. Oxygen oversaturations of about 110%, suggest a moderate potential primary production which confirms slowness and alternation of movements. Also, the regular range of the various chemical and biological levels and moderate chlorophyll concentrations suggest an ecosystem where nutrients supply rapidly equilibrate phytoplankton consumption and not at all a 'phytoplankton bloom' area as that which exists in coastal upwelling. Values of Richardson's number show that instability becomes visible at the bottom of the euphotic layer. An evaluation of the vertical motion is inferred by the peculiar distribution and diurnal alternance of the winds shows that 'doming' structures may be sustained by local meteorological events.