Simulation study of joint transition and Weibull survival model with shared parameters

This study investigates a theoretical model where a longitudinal process, that is a stationary Markov-Chain, and a Weibull survival process share a bivariate random effect. Furthermore, a Quality-of-Life adjusted survival is calculated as the weighted sum of survival time. Theoretical values of population mean adjusted survival of the described model are computed numerically. The parameters of the bivariate random effect do significantly affect theoretical values of population mean. Maximum-Likelihood and Bayesian methods are applied on simulated data to estimate the model parameters. Based on the parameter estimates, predicated population mean adjusted survival can then be calculated numerically and compared with the theoretical values. Bayesian method and Maximum-Likelihood method provide parameter estimations and population mean prediction with comparable accuracy; however Bayesian method suffers from poor convergence due to autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. ^

Estimating parameters in Markov models for longitudinal studies with missing data or surrogate outcomes

The discrete-time Markov chain is commonly used in describing changes of health states for chronic diseases in a longitudinal study. Statistical inferences on comparing treatment effects or on finding determinants of disease progression usually require estimation of transition probabilities. In many situations when the outcome data have some missing observations or the variable of interest (called a latent variable) can not be measured directly, the estimation of transition probabilities becomes more complicated. In the latter case, a surrogate variable that is easier to access and can gauge the characteristics of the latent one is usually used for data analysis. ^ This dissertation research proposes methods to analyze longitudinal data (1) that have categorical outcome with missing observations or (2) that use complete or incomplete surrogate observations to analyze the categorical latent outcome. For (1), different missing mechanisms were considered for empirical studies using methods that include EM algorithm, Monte Carlo EM and a procedure that is not a data augmentation method. For (2), the hidden Markov model with the forward-backward procedure was applied for parameter estimation. This method was also extended to cover the computation of standard errors. The proposed methods were demonstrated by the Schizophrenia example. The relevance of public health, the strength and limitations, and possible future research were also discussed. ^

An ordinal logistic regression model with misclassification of the outcome variable and categorical covariate

Ordinal outcomes are frequently employed in diagnosis and clinical trials. Clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments are a case in point using the status of mild, moderate or severe disease as outcome measures. As in many other outcome oriented studies, the disease status may be misclassified. This study estimates the extent of misclassification in an ordinal outcome such as disease status. Also, this study estimates the extent of misclassification of a predictor variable such as genotype status. An ordinal logistic regression model is commonly used to model the relationship between disease status, the effect of treatment, and other predictive factors. A simulation study was done. First, data based on a set of hypothetical parameters and hypothetical rates of misclassification was created. Next, the maximum likelihood method was employed to generate likelihood equations accounting for misclassification. The Nelder-Mead Simplex method was used to solve for the misclassification and model parameters. Finally, this method was applied to an AD dataset to detect the amount of misclassification present. The estimates of the ordinal regression model parameters were close to the hypothetical parameters. β1 was hypothesized at 0.50 and the mean estimate was 0.488, β2 was hypothesized at 0.04 and the mean of the estimates was 0.04. Although the estimates for the rates of misclassification of X1 were not as close as β1 and β2, they validate this method. X 1 0-1 misclassification was hypothesized as 2.98% and the mean of the simulated estimates was 1.54% and, in the best case, the misclassification of k from high to medium was hypothesized at 4.87% and had a sample mean of 3.62%. In the AD dataset, the estimate for the odds ratio of X 1 of having both copies of the APOE 4 allele changed from an estimate of 1.377 to an estimate 1.418, demonstrating that the estimates of the odds ratio changed when the analysis includes adjustment for misclassification. ^

Petrological parameters of sands and sandstones from DSDP and ODP holes in arc-related areas

Detrital modes for 524 deep-marine sand and sandstone samples recovered on circum-Pacific, Caribbean, and Mediterranean legs of the Deep Sea Drilling Project and the Ocean Drilling Program form the basis for an actualistic model for arc-related provenance. This model refines the Dickinson and Suczek (1979) and Dickinson and others (1983) models and can be used to interpret the provenance/tectonic history of ancient arc-related sedimentary sequences. Four provenance groups are defined using QFL, QmKP, LmLvLs, and LvfLvmiLvl ternary plots of site means: (1) intraoceanic arc and remnant arc, (2) continental arc, (3) triple junction, and (4) strike-slip-continental arc. Intraoceanic- and remnant-arc sands are poor in quartz (mean QFL%Q < 5) and rich in lithics (QFL%L > 75); they are predominantly composed of plagioclase feldspar and volcanic lithic fragments. Continental-arc sand can be more quartzofeldspathic than the intraoceanic- and remnant-arc sand (mean QFL%Q values as much as 10, mean QFL%F values as much as 65, and mean QmKP%Qm as much as 20) and has more variable lithic populations, with minor metamorphic and sedimentary components. The triple-junction and strike-slip-continental groups compositionally overlap; both are more quartzofeldspathic than the other groups and show highly variable lithic proportions, but the strike-slip-continental group is more quartzose. Modal compositions of the triple junction group roughly correlate with the QFL transitional-arc field of Dickinson and others (1983), whereas the strike-slip-continental group approximately correlates with their dissected-arc field.

Colony-specific investigations reveal highly variable responses among individual corals to ocean acidification and warming

As anthropogenic climate change is an ongoing concern, scientific investigations on its impacts on coral reefs are increasing. Although impacts of combined ocean acidification (OA) and temperature stress (T) on reef-building scleractinian corals have been studied at the genus, species and population levels, there are little data available on how individual corals respond to combined OA and anomalous temperatures. In this study, we exposed individual colonies of Acropora digitifera, Montipora digitata and Porites cylindrica to four pCO2-temperature treatments including 400 µatm-28 °C, 400 µatm-31 °C, 1000 µatm-28 °C and 1000 µatm-31 °C for 26 days. Physiological parameters including calcification, protein content, maximum photosynthetic efficiency, Symbiodinium density, and chlorophyll content along with Symbiodinium type of each colony were examined. Along with intercolonial responses, responses of individual colonies versus pooled data to the treatments were investigated. The main results were: 1) responses to either OA or T or their combination were different between individual colonies when considering physiological functions; 2) tolerance to either OA or T was not synonymous with tolerance to the other parameter; 3) tolerance to both OA and T did not necessarily lead to tolerance of OA and T combined (OAT) at the same time; 4) OAT had negative, positive or no impacts on physiological functions of coral colonies; and 5) pooled data were not representative of responses of all individual colonies. Indeed, the pooled data obscured actual responses of individual colonies or presented a response that was not observed in any individual. From the results of this study we recommend improving experimental designs of studies investigating physiological responses of corals to climate change by complementing them with colony-specific examinations.

Global Ocean Particulate Organic Carbon flux merged with satellite parameters

The efficiency of the biological pump of carbon to the deep ocean depends largely on the biologically mediated export of carbon from the surface ocean and its remineralization with depth. Global satellite studies have primarily focused on chlorophyll concentration and net primary production (NPP) to understand the role of phytoplankton in these processes. Recent satellite retrievals of phytoplankton composition now allow for the size of phytoplankton cells to be considered. Here, we improve understanding of phytoplankton size structure impacts on particle export, remineralization and transfer. Particulate organic carbon (POC) flux observations from sediment traps and 234Th are compiled across the global ocean. Annual climatologies of NPP, percent microplankton, and POC flux at four time series locations and within biogeochemical provinces are constructed, and sinking velocities are calculated to align surface variables with POC flux at depth. Parameters that characterize POC flux vs. depth (export flux ratio, labile fraction, remineralization length scale) are then fit to the aligned dataset. Times of the year dominated by different size compositions are identified and fit separately in regions of the ocean where phytoplankton cell size showed enough dynamic range over the annual cycle. Considering all data together, our findings support the paradigm of high export flux but low transfer efficiency in more productive regions and vice versa for oligotrophic regions. However, when parsing by dominant size class, we find periods dominated by small cells to have both greater export flux and lower transfer efficiency than periods when large cells comprise a greater proportion of the phytoplankton community.

Phytoplankton composition and biomass and its fluorescence parameters in waters of the Nha Trang Bay, South China Sea

Species composition and abundance of phytoplankton and chlorophyll concentration were measured at three horizons of 9 stations in the Nha Trang Bay of the South China Sea in March 1998. Vertical distribution of fluorescence parameters, temperature and irradiance were measured in the 0-18 m layer of the water column at 21 stations. It was shown that according to biomass (B) and chlorophyll concentration (Chl) the Bay is mezotrophic. B and Chl in the water column increased seaward. Mean values of Chl in the southern part of the Bay exceeded those in northern part. Mean values of B were similar. B and Chl in the bottom layer exceeded ones in the upper layer. Diatoms dominated in species diversity and abundance. Diatom Guinardia striata made the main contribution to phytoplankton biomass. Similarity of phytoplankton was high. In the upper layer phytoplankton was photoinhibited during the most part of the light period, but at the bottom photosynthetic activity was high. Water column B varied in an order of magnitude during the daily cycle mainly because of B variations in the bottom layer due to tide flow.

Optimización de la succión de sólidos sumergidos utilizando bombas centrífugas con velocidad variable

La acumulación de material sólido en embalses, cauces fluviales y en zonas marítimas hace que la extracción mecánica de estos materiales por medio de succión sea cada vez mas frecuente, por ello resulta importante estudiar el rendimiento de la succión de estos materiales analizando la forma de las boquillas y los parámetros del flujo incluyendo la bomba. Esta tesis estudia, mediante equipos experimentales, la eficacia de distintos dispositivos de extracción de sólidos (utilizando boquillas de diversas formas y bombas de velocidad variable). El dispositivo experimental ha sido desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Hidráulica de la E.T.S.I. de Caminos, C. y P. de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. Dicho dispositivo experimental incluye un lecho sumergido de distintos tipos de sedimentos, boquillas de extracción de sólidos y bomba de velocidad variable, así como un elemento de separación del agua y los sólidos extraídos. Los parámetros básicos analizados son el caudal líquido total bombeado, el caudal sólido extraído, diámetro de la tubería de succión, forma y sección de la boquilla extractora, así como los parámetros de velocidad y rendimiento en la bomba de velocidad variable. Los resultados de las medidas obtenidas en el dispositivo experimental han sido estudiados por medio del análisis dimensional y con métodos estadísticos. A partir de este estudio se ha desarrollado una nueva formulación, que relaciona el caudal sólido extraído con los diámetros de tubería y boquilla, caudal líquido bombeado y velocidad de giro de la bomba. Así mismo, desde el punto de vista práctico, se han analizado la influencia de la forma de la boquilla con la capacidad de extracción de sólidos a igualdad del resto de los parámetros, de forma que se puedan recomendar que forma de la boquilla es la más apropiada. The accumulation of solid material in reservoirs, river channels and sea areas causes the mechanical extraction of these materials by suction is becoming much more common, so it is important to study the performance of the suction of these materials analyzing the shape of the nozzles and flow parameters, including the pump. This thesis studies, using experimental equipment, the effectiveness of different solids removal devices (using nozzles of different shapes and variable speed pumps). The experimental device was developed at the Hydraulics Laboratory of the Civil University of the Polytechnic University of Madrid. The device included a submerged bed with different types of sediment solids, different removal nozzles and variable speed pump. It also includes a water separation element and the solids extracted. The key parameters analyzed are the total liquid volume pumped, the solid volume extracted, diameter of the suction pipe, a section of the nozzle and hood, and the parameters of speed and efficiency of the variable speed pump. The basic parameters analyzed are the total liquid volume pumped, the removed solid volume, the diameter of the suction pipe, the shape and cross-section of the nozzle, and the parameters of speed, efficiency and energy consumed by the variable speed pump. The measurements obtained on the experimental device have been studied with dimensional analysis and statistical methods. The outcome of this study is a new formulation, which relates the solid volume extracted with the pipe and nozzle diameters, the pumped liquid flow and the speed of the pump. Also, from a practical point of view, the influence of the shape of the nozzle was compared with the solid extraction capacity, keeping equal the rest of the parameters. So, a recommendation of the best shape of the nozzle can be given.

Variable impedance LED matrix control system for lamps in PV applications

The interest in LED lighting has been growing recently due to the high efficacy, lifelime and ruggedness that this technology offers. However the key element to guarantee those parameters with these new electronic devices is to keep under control the working temperature of the semiconductor crystal. This paper propases a LED lamp design that fulfils the requ irements of a PV lighting systems, whose main quality criteria is reliability. It uses directly as a power supply a non·stabilized constant voltage source, as batteries. An electronic control architecture is used to regulate the current applied to the LEO matri)( according to their temperature and the voltage output value of the batteries with two pulse modulation signals (PWM) signals. The first one connects and disconnects the LEOs to the power supply and the second one connects and disconnects several emitters to the electric circuit changing its overall impedance. A prototype of the LEO lamp has been implemented and tested at different temperaturas and battery voltages.

Variable structure control with chattering elimination and guaranteed stability for a generalized T-S model

In this paper, a fuzzy based Variable Structure Control (VSC) with guaranteed stability is presented. The main objective is to obtain an improved performance of highly non-linear unstable systems. The main contribution of this work is that, firstly, new functions for chattering reduction and error convergence without sacrificing invariant properties are proposed, which is considered the main drawback of the VSC control. Secondly, the global stability of the controlled system is guaranteed.The well known weighting parameters approach, is used in this paper to optimize local and global approximation and modeling capability of T-S fuzzy model.A one link robot is chosen as a nonlinear unstable system to evaluate the robustness, effectiveness and remarkable performance of optimization approach and the high accuracy obtained in approximating nonlinear systems in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential and generality of the algorithm. The application of the proposed FLC-VSC shows that both alleviation of chattering and robust performance are achieved with the proposed FLC-VSC controller. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is proven in front of disturbances and noise effects.

Variable structure control with chattering reduction of a generalized T-S model

In this paper, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) based variable structure control (VSC) is presented. The main objective is to obtain an improved performance of highly non-linear unstable systems. New functions for chattering reduction and error convergence without sacrificing invariant properties are proposed. The main feature of the proposed method is that the switching function is added as an additional fuzzy variable and will be introduced in the premise part of the fuzzy rules; together with the state variables. In this work, a tuning of the well known weighting parameters approach is proposed to optimize local and global approximation and modelling capability of the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model to improve the choice of the performance index and minimize it. The main problem encountered is that the T-S identification method can not be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This in turn restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used in control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of the T-S method. An inverted pendulum mounted on a cart is chosen to evaluate the robustness, effectiveness, accuracy and remarkable performance of the proposed estimation approach in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity and generality of the estimation method and the robustness of the chattering reduction algorithm. In this paper, we prove that the proposed estimation algorithm converge the very fast, thereby making it very practical to use. The application of the proposed FLC-VSC shows that both alleviation of chattering and robust performance are achieved.

Modelización de reacciones químicas en presencia de un campo electromagnético variable

En esta tesis se aborda el estudio del proceso de isomerización del sistema molecular LiNC/LiCN tanto aislado como en presencia de un pulso láser aplicando la teoría del estado de transición (TST). Esta teoría tiene como pilar fundamental el hecho de que el conocimiento de la dinámica en las proximidades de un punto de silla de la superficie de energía potencial permite determinar los parámetros cinéticos de la reacción objeto de estudio. Históricamente, existen dos formulaciones de la teoría del estado de transición, la versión termodinámica de Eyring (Eyr38) y la visión dinámica de Wigner (Wig38). Ésta última ha sufrido recientemente un amplio desarrollo, paralelo a los avances en sistemas dinámicos que ha dado lugar a una formulación geométrica en el espacio de fases que sirve como base al trabajo desarrollado en esta tesis. Nos hemos centrado en abordar el problema desde una visión fundamentalmente práctica, ya que la teoría del estado de transición presenta una desventaja: su elevado coste computacional y de tiempo de cálculo. Dos han sido los principales objetivos de este trabajo. El primero de ellos ha sido sentar las bases teóricas y computacionales de un algoritmo eficiente que permita obtener las magnitudes fundamentales de la TST. Así, hemos adaptado con éxito un algoritmo computacional desarrollado en el ámbito de la mecánica celeste (Jor99), obteniendo un método rápido y eficiente para la obtención de los objetos geométricos que rigen la dinámica en el espacio de fases y que ha permitido calcular magnitudes cinéticas tales como el flujo reactivo, la densidad de estados de reactivos y productos y en última instancia la constante de velocidad. Dichos cálculos han sido comparados con resultados estadísticos (presentados en (Mül07)) lo cual nos ha permitido demostrar la eficacia del método empleado. El segundo objetivo de esta tesis, ha sido la evaluación de la influencia de los parámetros de un pulso electromagnético sobre la dinámica de reacción. Para ello se ha generalizado la metodología de obtención de la forma normal del hamiltoniano cuando el sistema químico es alterado mediante una perturbación temporal periódica. En este caso el punto fijo inestable en cuya vecindad se calculan los objetos geométricos de interés para la aplicación de la TST, se transforma en una órbita periódica del mismo periodo que la perturbación. Esto ha permitido la simulación de la reactividad en presencia de un pulso láser. Conocer el efecto de esta perturbación posibilita el control de la reactividad química. Además de obtener los objetos geométricos que rigen la dinámica en una cierta vecindad de la órbita periódica y que son la clave de la TST, se ha estudiado el efecto de los parámetros del pulso sobre la reactividad en el espacio de fases global así como sobre el flujo reactivo que atraviesa la superficie divisoria que separa reactivos de productos. Así, se ha puesto de manifiesto, que la amplitud del pulso es el parámetro más influyente sobre la reactividad química, pudiendo producir la aparición de flujos reactivos a energías inferiores a las de aparición del sistema aislado y el aumento del flujo reactivo a valores constantes de energía inicial. ABSTRACT We have studied the isomerization reaction LiNC/LiCN isolated and perturbed by a laser pulse. Transition State theory (TST) is the main tool we have used. The basis of this theory is knowing the dynamics close to a fixed point of the potential energy surface. It is possible to calculate kinetic magnitudes by knowing the dynamics in a neighbourhood of the fixed point. TST was first formulated in the 30's and there were 2 points of view, one thermodynamical by Eyring (Eyr38) and another dynamical one by Wigner (Wig38). The latter one has grown lately due to the growth of the dynamical systems leading to a geometrical view of the TST. This is the basis of the work shown in this thesis. As the TST has one main handicap: the high computational cost, one of the main goals of this work is to find an efficient method. We have adapted a methodology developed in the field of celestial mechanics (Jor99). The result: an efficient, fast and accurate algorithm that allows us to obtain the geometric objects that lead the dynamics close to the fixed point. Flux across the dividing surface, density of states and reaction rate coefficient have been calculated and compared with previous statistical results, (Mül07), leading to the conclusion that the method is accurate and good enough. We have widen the methodology to include a time dependent perturbation. If the perturbation is periodic in time, the fixed point becomes a periodic orbit whose period is the same as the period of the perturbation. This way we have been able to simulate the isomerization reaction when the system has been perturbed by a laser pulse. By knowing the effect of that perturbation we will be able to control the chemical reactivity. We have also studied the effect of the parameters on the global phase space dynamics and on the flux across the dividing surface. It has been prove that amplitude is the most influent parameter on the reaction dynamics. Increasing amplitude leads to greater fluxes and to some flux at energies it would not if the systems would not have been perturbed.

Variable-density jet flows induced by concentrated sources of momentum and energy

The planar and axisymmetric variable-density flows induced in a quiescent gas by a concentrated source of momentum that is simultaneously either a source or a sink of energy are investigated for application to the description of the velocity and temperature far fields in laminar gaseous jets with either large or small values of the initial jet-to-ambient temperature ratio. The source fluxes of momentum and heat are used to construct the characteristic scales of velocity and length in the region where the density differences are of the order of the ambient density, which is slender for the large values of the Reynolds number considered herein. The problem reduces to the integration of the dimensionless boundary-layer conservation equations, giving a solution that depends on the gas transport properties but is otherwise free of parameters. The boundary conditions at the jet exit for integration are obtained by analysing the self-similar flow that appears near the heat source in planar and axisymmetric configurations and also near the heat sink in the planar case. Numerical integrations of the boundary-layer equations with these conditions give solutions that describe accurately the velocity and temperature fields of very hot planar and round jets and also of very cold plane jets in the far field region where the density and temperature differences are comparable to the ambient values. Simple scaling arguments indicate that the point source description does not apply, however, to cold round jets, whose far field region is not large compared with the jet development region, as verified by numerical integrations

Estudio y diseño de elementos acústicos para proporcionar una acústica variable en una sala multifuncional

El objetivo de este proyecto es profundizar en el estudio y diseño de sistemas relacionados con el acondicionamiento acústico para una sala multifuncional. El proyecto se compone de dos partes. Una parte teórica y una parte práctica dónde se aplican los conceptos teóricos aprendidos. La primera parte, está dividida en capítulos en los que se habla de los siguientes temas: Acústica de salas. Para obtener una acústica adecuada en un recinto destinado a varias funciones, se debe contar con una serie de características que lo definan según su uso, por lo que es necesario conocer el tiempo de reverberación y otros parámetros subjetivos para poder caracterizar ese recinto. Materiales para el acondicionamiento acústico, donde se habla de los materiales absorbentes clasificándolos según las frecuencias a las que actúan y de los distintos tipos de difusores. Métodos para conseguir una acústica variable mediante la utilización de elementos físicos variables, citando casos reales de salas multifuncionales. La segunda parte, consiste en la realización de diseños de elementos de acústica variable para una posible utilización en salas polivalentes reales. La herramienta elegida a la hora de la elaboración de estos diseños es el AutoCad. Con esta herramienta se han realizado estos diseños representados en dos y tres dimensiones. ABSTRACT. The objective of this project is to deepen the study and design of systems related to multifunctional room acoustic conditioning. The project is composed of two parts. A theoretical part and a practical part where the learned theoretical concepts are applied. The first part is divided into chapters in which we talk about the following topics: Acoustics of rooms. To obtain proper acoustics in a room intended for various functions, you must have a number of characteristics that define it according to its use, so it is necessary to know the reverberation time and other subjective parameters to characterize the hall. Materials for acoustic conditioning, where we talk about the absorbent materials classified according to frequencies that those materials act and the different types of diffusers. Methods for obtain a variable acoustic by using variable physical elements, mentioning real cases of multi-purpose rooms. The second part deals with designs execution of variable acoustic elements for a possible use in a real multipurpose room. The chosen tool to develop these designs is the AutoCad. These designs have been made with this tool, represented in two and three dimensions.