954 resultados para trend following mean reversion


Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aortic root replacement is a complex procedure, though subsequent modifications of the original Bentall procedure have made surgery more reproducible. The study aim was to examine the outcomes of a modified Bentall procedure, using the Medtronic Open PivotTM valved conduit. Whilst short-term data on the conduit and long-term data on the valve itself are available, little is known of the long-term results with the valved conduit. Patients undergoing aortic root replacement between February 1999 and February 2010, using the Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit were identified from the prospectively collected Cardiothoracic Register at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. All patients were followed up echocardiographically and clinically. The primary end-point was death, and a Cox proportional model was used to identify factors associated.with survival. Secondary end-points were valve-related morbidity (as defined by STS guidelines) and postoperative morbidity. Predictors of morbidity were identified using logistic regression. A total of 246 patients (mean age 50 years) was included in the study. The overall mortality was 12%, with actuarial 10-year survival 79% and a 10-year estimate of valve-related death of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.004, 0.07). Preoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.004, HR 4.74), urgency of operation (p = 0.038, HR 2.8) and 10% incremental decreases in ejection fraction (p = 0.046, HR 0.69) were predictive of mortality. Survival was also affected by the valve gradients, with a unit increase in peak gradient reducing mortality (p = 0.021, HR 0.93). Valve-related morbidity occurred in 11 patients. Urgent surgery (p <0.001, OR 4.12), aortic dissection (p = 0.015, OR 3.35), calcific aortic stenosis (p = 0.016, OR 2.35) and Marfan syndrome (p 0.009, OR 3.75) were predictive of postoperative morbidity. The reoperation rate was 1.2%. The Medtronic Open Pivot valved conduit is a safe and durable option for aortic root replacement, and is associated with low morbidity and 10-year survival of 79%. However, further studies are required to determine the effect of valve gradient on survival.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Purpose: Skin temperature assessment has historically been undertaken with conductive devices affixed to the skin. With the development of technology, infrared devices are increasingly utilised in the measurement of skin temperature. Therefore, our purpose was to evaluate the agreement between four skin temperature devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery. Methods: Mean skin temperature (T̅sk) was assessed in thirty healthy males during 30 min rest (24.0± 1.2°C, 56 ± 8%), 30 min cycle in the heat (38.0 ± 0.5°C, 41 ± 2%), and 45 min recovery(24.0 ± 1.3°C, 56 ± 9%). T̅sk was assessed at four sites using two conductive devices(thermistors, iButtons) and two infrared devices (infrared thermometer, infrared camera). Results: Bland–Altman plots demonstrated mean bias ± limits of agreement between the thermistors and iButtons as follows (rest, exercise, recovery): -0.01 ± 0.04, 0.26 ± 0.85, -0.37 ± 0.98°C; thermistors and infrared thermometer: 0.34 ± 0.44, -0.44 ± 1.23, -1.04 ± 1.75°C; thermistors and infrared camera (rest, recovery): 0.83 ± 0.77, 1.88 ± 1.87°C. Pairwise comparisons of T̅sk found significant differences (p < 0.05) between thermistors and both infrared devices during resting conditions, and significant differences between the thermistors and all other devices tested during exercise in the heat and recovery. Conclusions: These results indicate poor agreement between conductive and infrared devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and subsequent recovery. Infrared devices may not be suitable for monitoring T̅sk in the presence of, or following, metabolic and environmental induced heat stress.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Objectives Shift workers are prone to obesity and associated co-morbidities such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Sleep restriction associated with shift work results in dramatic endocrine and metabolic effects that predispose shift workers to these adverse health consequences. While sleep restriction has been associated with increased caloric intake, food preference may also play a key role in weight gain associated with shift work. This study examined the impact of an overnight simulated night shift on food preference. Methods Sixteen participants [mean 20.1, standard deviation (SD) 1.4 years; 8 women] underwent a simulated night shift and control condition in a counterbalanced order. On the following morning, participants were provided an opportunity for breakfast that included high- and low-fat food options (mean 64.8% and 6.4% fat, respectively). Results Participants ate significantly more high-fat breakfast items after the simulated night shift than after the control condition [167.3, standard error of the mean (SEM 28.7) g versus 211.4 (SEM 35.6) g; P=0.012]. The preference for high-fat food was apparent among the majority of individuals following the simulated night shift (81%), but not for the control condition (31%). Shift work and control conditions did not differ, however, in the total amount of food or calories consumed. Conclusions A simulated night shift leads to preference for high-fat food during a subsequent breakfast opportunity. These results suggest that food choice may contribute to weight-related chronic health problems commonly seen among night shift workers.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVE Impaired regulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and hyper-activity of this system have been described in patients with psychosis. Conversely, some psychiatric disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are characterised by HPA hypo-activity, which could be related to prior exposure to trauma. This study examined the cortisol response to the administration of low-dose dexamethasone in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients and its relationship to childhood trauma. METHOD The low-dose (0.25 mg) Dexamethasone Suppression Test (DST) was performed in 21 neuroleptic-naive or minimally treated FEP patients and 20 healthy control participants. Childhood traumatic events were assessed in all participants using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and psychiatric symptoms were assessed in patients using standard rating scales. RESULTS FEP patients reported significantly higher rates of childhood trauma compared to controls (p = 0.001) and exhibited lower basal (a.m.) cortisol (p = 0.04) and an increased rate of cortisol hyper-suppression following dexamethasone administration compared to controls (33% (7/21) vs 5% (1/20), respectively; p = 0.04). There were no significant group differences in mean cortisol decline or percent cortisol suppression following the 0.25 mg DST. This study shows for the first time that a subset of patients experiencing their first episode of psychosis display enhanced cortisol suppression. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest there may be distinct profiles of HPA axis dysfunction in psychosis which should be further explored.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background After being discharged from hospital following the acute management of a fragility fracture, older adults may re-present to hospital emergency departments in the post-discharge period. Early re-presentation to hospital, which includes hospital readmissions, and emergency department presentations without admission, may be considered undesirable for individuals, hospital institutions and society. The identification of modifiable risk factors for hospital re-representation following initial fracture management may prove useful for informing policy or practice initiatives that seek to minimise the need for older adults to re-present to hospital early after they have been discharged from their initial inpatient care. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify correlates of hospital re-presentation in older patients who have been discharged from hospital following clinical management of fragility fractures. Methods/Design The review will follow the PRISMA-P reporting guidelines for systematic reviews. Four electronic databases (Pubmed, CINAHL, Embase, and Scopus) will be searched. A suite of search terms will identify peer-reviewed articles that have examined the correlates of hospital re-presentation in older adults (mean age of 65 years or older) who have been discharged from hospital following treatment for fragility fractures. The Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies will be used to assess the quality of the studies. The strength of evidence will be assessed through best evidence synthesis. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies are likely to impede meta-analyses. Discussion The best evidence synthesis will outline correlates of hospital re-presentations in this clinical group. This synthesis will take into account potential risks of bias for each study, while permitting inclusion of findings from a range of quantitative study designs. It is anticipated that findings from the review will be useful in identifying potentially modifiable risk factors that have relevance in policy, practice and research priorities to improve the management of patients with fragility fractures. Systematic Review Registration PROSPERO CRD42015019379

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background. The majority of studies investigating the neural mechanisms underlying treatment-induced recovery in aphasia have focused on the cortical regions associated with language processing. However, the integrity of the white matter connecting these regions may also be crucial to understanding treatment mechanisms. Objective. This study investigated the integrity of the arcuate fasciculus (AF) and uncinate fasciculus (UF) before and after treatment for anomia in people with aphasia. Method. Eight people with aphasia received 12 treatment sessions to improve naming; alternating between phonologically-based and semantic-based tasks, with high angular resolution diffusion imaging conducted pre and post treatment. The mean generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA), a measure of fiber integrity, and number of fibers in the AF and UF were compared pre and post treatment, as well as with a group of 14 healthy older controls. Results. Pre treatment, participants with aphasia had significantly fewer fibers and lower mean GFA in the left AF compared with controls. Post treatment, mean GFA increased in the left AF to be statistically equivalent to controls. Additionally, mean GFA in the left AF pre and post treatment positively correlated with maintenance of the phonologically based treatment. No differences were found in the right AF, or the UF in either hemisphere, between participants with aphasia and controls, and no changes were observed in these tracts following treatment. Conclusions. Anomia treatments may improve the integrity of the white matter connecting cortical language regions. These preliminary results add to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying treatment outcomes in people with aphasia post stroke.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Stability analyses have been widely used to better understand the mechanism of traffic jam formation. In this paper, we consider the impact of cooperative systems (a.k.a. connected vehicles) on traffic dynamics and, more precisely, on flow stability. Cooperative systems are emerging technologies enabling communication between vehicles and/or with the infrastructure. In a distributed communication framework, equipped vehicles are able to send and receive information to/from other equipped vehicles. Here, the effects of cooperative traffic are modeled through a general bilateral multianticipative car-following law that improves cooperative drivers' perception of their surrounding traffic conditions within a given communication range. Linear stability analyses are performed for a broad class of car-following models. They point out different stability conditions in both multianticipative and nonmultianticipative situations. To better understand what happens in unstable conditions, information on the shock wave structure is studied in the weakly nonlinear regime by the mean of the reductive perturbation method. The shock wave equation is obtained for generic car-following models by deriving the Korteweg de Vries equations. We then derive traffic-state-dependent conditions for the sign of the solitary wave (soliton) amplitude. This analytical result is verified through simulations. Simulation results confirm the validity of the speed estimate. The variation of the soliton amplitude as a function of the communication range is provided. The performed linear and weakly nonlinear analyses help justify the potential benefits of vehicle-integrated communication systems and provide new insights supporting the future implementation of cooperative systems.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background: Alterations in energy expenditure during activity post head injury has not been investigated due primarily to the difficulty of measurement. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare energy expenditure during activity and body composition of children following acquired brain injury (ABI) with data from a group of normal controls. Design: Energy expenditure was measured using the Cosmed K4b2 in a group of 15 children with ABI and a group of 67 normal children during rest and when walking and running. Mean number of steps taken per 3 min run was also recorded and body composition was measured. Results: The energy expended during walking was not significantly different between both groups. A significant difference was found between the two groups in the energy expended during running and also for the number of steps taken as children with ABI took significantly less steps than the normal controls during a 3 min run. Conclusions: Children with ABI exert more energy per activity than healthy controls when controlled for velocity or distance. However, they expend less energy to walk and run when they are free to choose their own desirable, comfortable pace than normal controls. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Early deficits in nutritional status that might require specific treatment and early response to nutritional therapy were studied longitudinally in 25 infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) diagnosed by neonatal screening, using anthropometric and research body composition methodology, and evaluation of pancreatic function. At the time of confirmed diagnosis (mean 5.4 weeks), body mass, length, total body fat (TBF), and total body potassium (TBK) were all significantly reduced. Following diagnosis and commencement of therapy there was a normalization of weight, length, and TBK by 6-12 months of age, indicating catch-up growth. But in some individuals the response was incomplete, and as a group, mean total body fat remained significantly lower than normal at 1 year of age. Seven of 25 (28%) were pancreatic sufficient at diagnosis, and all but one had evidence of declining pancreatic function requiring the institution of pancreatic enzyme therapy during the next 1-9 months. The median age of commencement of enzyme therapy was 10 weeks (range 5 weeks to 11 months). These longitudinal assessments emphasize the dynamic changes occurring in absorptive function, body composition, and nutritional status following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis and may reflect previously described abnormalities of energy metabolism in this age group. Abnormal body composition is evident in most CF infants following diagnosis by neonatal screening but pancreatic damage may still be evolving. We suggest that early active nutritional therapy and surveillance for changes in pancreatic function are warranted in CF infants diagnosed by neonatal screening.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Measurements of the ratio of diffusion coefficient to mobility (D/ mu ) of electrons in SF6-N2 and CCl2F2-N2 mixtures over the range 80mean energies epsilon c.mix corresponding to (E/p)c.mix, are found to vary with the percentage of the electronegative gas in the mixture (F) according to the following relationship: (E/p)c.mix=(E/p)c.N(2)+((E/p)c.A-(E/p)c.N(2)) (1-exp(- beta F/100-F)) and epsilon c.mix= epsilon c.N(2)+( epsilon c.A- epsilon c.N(2)) (1-exp(- beta F/100-F)) where A refers to the attaching gas, either SF6 or CCl2F2 and beta is a constant, equal to 2.43 for SF6 mixtures and 5.12 for CCl2F2 mixtures. In the present study, it has been possible to show that beta is indeed to a factor of synergism. Estimated gamma values (secondary ionisation coefficients) did not show any significant variation with F for F<50.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Because weed eradication programs commonly take 10 or more years to complete, there is a need to evaluate progress toward the eradication objective. We present a simple model, based on information that is readily obtainable, that assesses conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria for eradication. It is applied to the program currently targeting the annual parasitic weed, branched broomrape, in South Australia. The model consists of delimitation and extirpation (E) measures plotted against each other to form an 'eradograph.' Deviations from the 'ideal' eradograph plot can inform tactical responses, e.g., increases in survey and/or control effort. Infestations progress from the active phase to the monitoring phase when no plants have been detected for at least 12 mo. They revert to the active phase upon further detection of plants. We summarize this process for the invasion as a whole in a state-and-transition model. Using this model we demonstrate that the invasion is unlikely to be delimited unless the amount of newly detected infested area decreases, on average, by at least 50% per annum. As a result of control activities implemented, on average approximately 70% (range, 44 to 86%) of active infestations progressed to the monitoring phase in the year following their detection. Simulations suggest that increasing this rate of transition will not increase E to a significant extent. The rate of reversion of infestations from the monitoring phase to the active phase decreased logarithmically with time since last detection, but it is likely that lower rates of reversion would accelerate the trend toward extirpation. Program performance with respect to the delimitation criterion has been variable; performance with respect to the extirpation criterion would be improved considerably by the development and application of cost-effective methods for eliminating branched broomrape soil seed populations.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

With improving survival rates following HSCT in children, QOL and management of short- and long-term effects need to be considered. Exercise may help mitigate fatigue and declines in fitness and strength. The aims of this study were to assess the feasibility of an inpatient exercise intervention for children undergoing HSCT and observe the changes in physical and psychological health. Fourteen patients were recruited, mean age 10 yr. A 6MWT, isometric upper and lower body strength, balance, fatigue, and QOL were assessed prior to Tx and six wk post-Tx. A supervised exercise program was offered five days per week during the inpatient period and feasibility assessed through uptake rate. The study had 100% program completion and 60% uptake rate of exercise sessions. The mean (±s.d.) weekly activity was 117.5 (±79.3) minutes. Younger children performed significantly more minutes of exercise than adolescents. At reassessment, strength and fatigue were stabilized while aerobic fitness and balance decreased. QOL revealed a non-statistical trend towards improvement. No exercise-related adverse events were reported. A supervised inpatient exercise program is safe and feasible, with potential physiological and psychosocial benefits.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

- Purpose To examine the change in corneal thickness and posterior curvature following 8 hours of miniscleral contact lens wear. - Methods Scheimpflug imaging (Pentacam HR, Oculus) was captured before, and immediately following, 8 hours of miniscleral contact lens wear for 15 young (mean age 22 ± 3 years), healthy participants with normal corneae. Natural diurnal variations were considered by measuring baseline corneal changes obtained on a separate control day without contact lens wear. - Results Over the central 6 mm of the cornea, a small, but highly statistically significant amount of edema was observed following 8 hours of miniscleral lens wear, after accounting for normal diurnal fluctuations (mean ± standard deviation percentage swelling 1.70 ± 0.98%, p < 0.0001). Posterior corneal topography remained stable following lens wear (-0.01 ± 0.07 mm steepening over the central 6 mm, p = 0.60). The magnitude of posterior corneal topographical changes following lens wear did not correlate with the extent of lens-related corneal edema (r = -0.16, p = 0.57). Similarly, the initial central corneal vault (maximum post-lens tear layer depth) was not associated with corneal swelling following lens removal (r = 0.27, p = 0.33). - Conclusions While a small amount of corneal swelling was induced following 8 hours of miniscleral lens wear (on average <2%), modern high Dk miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea do not induce clinically significant corneal edema or hypoxic related posterior corneal curvature changes during short-term wear. Longer-term studies of compromised eyes (e.g. corneal ectasia) are still required to inform the optimum lens and fitting characteristics for safe scleral lens wear to minimize corneal hypoxia.