Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

A scalable multimedia content processing framework with application to TV shopping

The advent of smart TVs has reshaped the TV-consumer interaction by combining TVs with mobile-like applications and access to the Internet. However, consumers are still unable to seamlessly interact with the contents being streamed. An example of such limitation is TV shopping, in which a consumer makes a purchase of a product or item displayed in the current TV show. Currently, consumers can only stop the current show and attempt to find a similar item in the Web or an actual store. It would be more convenient if the consumer could interact with the TV to purchase interesting items. ^ Towards the realization of TV shopping, this dissertation proposes a scalable multimedia content processing framework. Two main challenges in TV shopping are addressed: the efficient detection of products in the content stream, and the retrieval of similar products given a consumer-selected product. The proposed framework consists of three components. The first component performs computational and temporal aware multimedia abstraction to select a reduced number of frames that summarize the important information in the video stream. By both reducing the number of frames and taking into account the computational cost of the subsequent detection phase, this component component allows the efficient detection of products in the stream. The second component realizes the detection phase. It executes scalable product detection using multi-cue optimization. Additional information cues are formulated into an optimization problem that allows the detection of complex products, i.e., those that do not have a rigid form and can appear in various poses. After the second component identifies products in the video stream, the consumer can select an interesting one for which similar ones must be located in a product database. To this end, the third component of the framework consists of an efficient, multi-dimensional, tree-based indexing method for multimedia databases. The proposed index mechanism serves as the backbone of the search. Moreover, it is able to efficiently bridge the semantic gap and perception subjectivity issues during the retrieval process to provide more relevant results.^

Searching for Predictive Subgroups

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Encapsulating and Manipulating Component Object Graphics (COGs) using SVG

Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) has an imaging model similar to that of PostScript and PDF but the XML basis of SVG allows it to participate fully, via namespaces, in generalised XML documents.There is increasing interest in using SVG as a Page Description Language and we examine ways in which SVG document components can be encapsulated in contexts where SVG will be used as a rendering technology for conventional page printing.Our aim is to encapsulate portions of SVG content (SVG COGs) so that the COGs are mutually independent and can be moved around a page, while maintaining invariant graphic properties and with guaranteed freedom from side effects and mutual interference. Parellels are drawn between COG implementation within SVG's tree-based inheritance mechanisms and an earlier COG implementation using PDF.

Defense and traceback mechanisms in opportunistic wireless networks

 In this thesis, we have identified a novel attack in OppNets, a special type of packet dropping attack where the malicious node(s) drops one or more packets (not all the packets) and then injects new fake packets instead. We name this novel attack as the Catabolism attack and propose a novel attack detection and traceback approach against this attack referred to as the Anabolism defence. As part of the Anabolism defence approach we have proposed three techniques: time-based, Merkle tree based and Hash chain based techniques for attack detection and malicious node(s) traceback. We provide mathematical models that show our novel detection and traceback mechanisms to be very effective and detailed simulation results show our defence mechanisms to achieve a very high accuracy and detection rate.

A visual-numeric approach to clustering and anomaly detection for trajectory data

This paper proposes a novel application of Visual Assessment of Tendency (VAT)-based hierarchical clustering algorithms (VAT, iVAT, and clusiVAT) for trajectory analysis. We introduce a new clustering based anomaly detection framework named iVAT+ and clusiVAT+ and use it for trajectory anomaly detection. This approach is based on partitioning the VAT-generated Minimum Spanning Tree based on an efficient thresholding scheme. The trajectories are classified as normal or anomalous based on the number of paths in the clusters. On synthetic datasets with fixed and variable numbers of clusters and anomalies, we achieve 98 % classification accuracy. Our two-stage clusiVAT method is applied to 26,039 trajectories of vehicles and pedestrians from a parking lot scene from the real life MIT trajectories dataset. The first stage clusters the trajectories ignoring directionality. The second stage divides the clusters obtained from the first stage by considering trajectory direction. We show that our novel two-stage clusiVAT approach can produce natural and informative trajectory clusters on this real life dataset while finding representative anomalies.

Transcript and metabolite profiling for the evaluation of tobacco tree and poplar as feedstock for the bio-based industry

The global demand for food, feed, energy and water poses extraordinary challenges for future generations. It is evident that robust platforms for the exploration of renewable resources are necessary to overcome these challenges. Within the multinational framework MultiBioPro we are developing biorefinery pipelines to maximize the use of plant biomass. More specifically, we use poplar and tobacco tree (Nicotiana glauca) as target crop species for improving saccharification, isoprenoid, long chain hydrocarbon contents, fiber quality, and suberin and lignin contents. The methods used to obtain these outputs include GC-MS, LC-MS and RNA sequencing platforms. The metabolite pipelines are well established tools to generate these types of data, but also have the limitations in that only well characterized metabolites can be used. The deep sequencing will allow us to include all transcripts present during the developmental stages of the tobacco tree leaf, but has to be mapped back to the sequence of Nicotiana tabacum. With these set-ups, we aim at a basic understanding for underlying processes and at establishing an industrial framework to exploit the outcomes. In a more long term perspective, we believe that data generated here will provide means for a sustainable biorefinery process using poplar and tobacco tree as raw material. To date the basal level of metabolites in the samples have been analyzed and the protocols utilized are provided in this article.

Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence

We present here the first statistically calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of climate from continental Southeast Asia.The reconstructed variable is March-May (MAM) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on ring widths from 22 trees (42 radial cores) of rare and long-lived conifer, Fokienia hodginsii (Po Mu as locally called) from northern Vietnam. This is the first published tree ring chronology from Vietnam as well as the first for this species. Spanning 535 years, this is the longest cross-dated tree-ring series yet produced from continental Southeast Asia. Response analysis revealed that the annual growth of Fokienia at this site was mostly governed by soil moisture in the pre-monsoon season. The reconstruction passed the calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology, and revealed two prominent periods of drought in the mid-eighteenth and late-nineteenth enturies. The former lasted nearly 30 years and was concurrent with a similar drought over northwestern Thailand inferred from teak rings, suggesting a ``mega-drought'' extending across Indochina in the eighteenth century. Both of our reconstructed droughts are consistent with the periods of warm sea surface temperature (SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Spatial correlation analyses with global SST indicated that ENSO-like anomalies might play a role in modulating droughts over the region, with El Nio (warm) phases resulting in reduced rainfall. However, significant correlation was also seen with SST over the Indian Ocean and the north Pacific,suggesting that ENSO is not the only factor affecting the climate of the area. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks in the range of 53.9-78.8 years as well as in the ENSO-variability range of 2.0 to 3.2 years.

Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters and probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard using logic tree approach

The delineation of seismic source zones plays an important role in the evaluation of seismic hazard. In most of the studies the seismic source delineation is done based on geological features. In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard for south India was carried out using a logic tree approach. Two different types of seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the region more precisely. In order to properly account for the attenuation characteristics of the region, three different attenuation relations were used with different weightage factors. Seismic hazard evaluation was done for the probability of exceedance (PE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The spatial variation of rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2500 years for the entire study area are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at ground surface level were estimated based on different NEHRP site classes by considering local site effects.

Synoptic dendroclimatology: a process-based approach for linking tree-ring information to atmospheric circulation over the Pacific and western North America [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Synoptic dendroclimatology uses dated tree rings to study and reconstruct climate from the viewpoint of the climate's weather components and their relationship to atmospheric circulation. This approach defines a connection between large-scale circulation and ring-width variation at local sites using correlation fields, composite maps, indexing, and other circulation-based methodologies.

Unsupervised intra-lingual and cross-lingual speaker adaptation for HMM-based speech synthesis using two-pass decision tree construction

Hidden Markov model (HMM)-based speech synthesis systems possess several advantages over concatenative synthesis systems. One such advantage is the relative ease with which HMM-based systems are adapted to speakers not present in the training dataset. Speaker adaptation methods used in the field of HMM-based automatic speech recognition (ASR) are adopted for this task. In the case of unsupervised speaker adaptation, previous work has used a supplementary set of acoustic models to estimate the transcription of the adaptation data. This paper first presents an approach to the unsupervised speaker adaptation task for HMM-based speech synthesis models which avoids the need for such supplementary acoustic models. This is achieved by defining a mapping between HMM-based synthesis models and ASR-style models, via a two-pass decision tree construction process. Second, it is shown that this mapping also enables unsupervised adaptation of HMM-based speech synthesis models without the need to perform linguistic analysis of the estimated transcription of the adaptation data. Third, this paper demonstrates how this technique lends itself to the task of unsupervised cross-lingual adaptation of HMM-based speech synthesis models, and explains the advantages of such an approach. Finally, listener evaluations reveal that the proposed unsupervised adaptation methods deliver performance approaching that of supervised adaptation.