A modified test for small-study effects in meta-analyses of controlled trials with binary endpoints

Publication bias and related bias in meta-analysis is often examined by visually checking for asymmetry in funnel plots of treatment effect against its standard error. Formal statistical tests of funnel plot asymmetry have been proposed, but when applied to binary outcome data these can give false-positive rates that are higher than the nominal level in some situations (large treatment effects, or few events per trial, or all trials of similar sizes). We develop a modified linear regression test for funnel plot asymmetry based on the efficient score and its variance, Fisher's information. The performance of this test is compared to the other proposed tests in simulation analyses based on the characteristics of published controlled trials. When there is little or no between-trial heterogeneity, this modified test has a false-positive rate close to the nominal level while maintaining similar power to the original linear regression test ('Egger' test). When the degree of between-trial heterogeneity is large, none of the tests that have been proposed has uniformly good properties.

Effects of dexamethasone on mRNA abundance of nuclear receptors and hepatic nuclear receptor target genes in neonatal calves

Hepatic nuclear receptors (NR), particularly constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) and pregnane X receptor (PXR), are involved in the coordinated transcriptional control of genes that encode proteins involved in the metabolism and detoxification of xeno- and endobiotics. A broad spectrum of metabolic processes are mediated by NR acting in concert with ligands such as glucocorticoids. This study examined the role of dexamethasone on hepatic mRNA expression of CAR, PXR and several NR target genes. Twenty-eight male calves were allotted to one of four treatment groups in a 2 x 2 arrangement of treatments: feed source (colostrum or milk-based formula) and glucocorticoid administration (twice daily intramuscular dexamethasone). Liver biopsies were obtained at 5 days of age. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction was used to quantify mRNA abundances. No effects of feed source on mRNA abundances were observed. For the NR examined, mRNA abundance of both CAR and PXR in dexamethasone-treated calves was lower (p < 0.05) by 39% and 40%, respectively, than in control calves. Abundance of NR target genes exhibited a mixed response. SULT1A1 mRNA abundance was 39% higher (p < 0.05) in dexamethasone-treated calves compared with control calves. mRNA abundance of CYP2C8 tended also to be higher (+44%; p = 0.053) after dexamethasone treatment. No significant treatment effects (p > 0.10) were observed for mRNA abundances of CYP3A4, CYP2E1, SULT2A1, UGT1A1 or cytochrome P450 reductase (CPR). In conclusion, an enhanced glucocorticoid status, induced by pharmacological amounts of dexamethasone, had differential and in part unexpected effects on NR and NR target systems in 5-day-old calves. Part of the unexpected responses may be due the immaturity of NR and NR receptor target systems.

Topical caspofungin for treatment of keratitis caused by Candida albicans in a rabbit model

Candida albicans is the most frequent cause of fungal keratitis in temperate regions. Caspofungin has potent activity against Candida spp. in a variety of clinical settings. Little is known, however, about its activity against fungal keratitis. We compared the efficacy of topical caspofungin with that of topical amphotericin B (AMB) in a rabbit model of experimental keratomycosis. Keratitis was induced with a standardized inoculum of Candida albicans (SC 5314) placed on the debrided cornea. Twenty-four hours after infection, animals were randomly assigned to treatment with 0.15% caspofungin, 0.5% caspofungin, 0.15% AMB, and a saline control (n = 12 rabbits in each group). For the first 12 h, treatment was repeated every 30 min and, after a 12-h pause, was resumed at hourly intervals for another 12 h. The animals were examined and killed 12 h after administration of the last dose. Treatment effects were evaluated by clinical assessment, fungal culture, and histopathology. Drug treatment significantly reduced corneal fungal recovery from 3.78 log10 CFU in saline-treated animals to 2.97, 1.76, and 1.18 log10 CFU in animals treated with 0.15% caspofungin, 0.5% caspofungin, and 0.15% AMB, respectively. By histopathology, the mean hyphal density was significantly lower in the corneas of treated animals than in those of the controls; there was no difference in hyphal densities between the different treatment groups. The depth of corneal invasion was not significantly reduced by the antifungal treatments. By clinical assessment, keratitis progressed in animals treated with saline, whereas disease progression was inhibited by all drug treatment regimens. In our rabbit model, 0.5% caspofungin was as effective as 0.15% AMB for the topical treatment of Candida keratitis. The potential clinical efficacy of caspofungin awaits further investigation.

The effects of excluding patients from the analysis in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether excluding patients from the analysis of randomised trials are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects and higher heterogeneity between trials. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study based on a collection of meta-analyses of randomised trials. DATA SOURCES: 14 meta-analyses including 167 trials that compared therapeutic interventions with placebo or non-intervention control in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee and used patient reported pain as an outcome. METHODS: Effect sizes were calculated from differences in means of pain intensity between groups at the end of follow-up, divided by the pooled standard deviation. Trials were combined by using random effects meta-analysis. Estimates of treatment effects were compared between trials with and trials without exclusions from the analysis, and the impact of restricting meta-analyses to trials without exclusions was assessed. RESULTS: 39 trials (23%) had included all patients in the analysis. In 128 trials (77%) some patients were excluded from the analysis. Effect sizes from trials with exclusions tended to be more beneficial than those from trials without exclusions (difference -0.13, 95% confidence interval -0.29 to 0.04). However, estimates of bias between individual meta-analyses varied considerably (tau(2)=0.07). Tests of interaction between exclusions from the analysis and estimates of treatment effects were positive in five meta-analyses. Stratified analyses indicated that differences in effect sizes between trials with and trials without exclusions were more pronounced in meta-analyses with high between trial heterogeneity, in meta-analyses with large estimated treatment benefits, and in meta-analyses of complementary medicine. Restriction of meta-analyses to trials without exclusions resulted in smaller estimated treatment benefits, larger P values, and considerable decreases in between trial heterogeneity. CONCLUSION: Excluding patients from the analysis in randomised trials often results in biased estimates of treatment effects, but the extent and direction of bias is unpredictable. Results from intention to treat analyses should always be described in reports of randomised trials. In systematic reviews, the influence of exclusions from the analysis on estimated treatment effects should routinely be assessed.

Treatment and outcomes of acute basilar artery occlusion in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS): a prospective registry study

BACKGROUND: Treatment strategies for acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) are based on case series and data that have been extrapolated from stroke intervention trials in other cerebrovascular territories, and information on the efficacy of different treatments in unselected patients with BAO is scarce. We therefore assessed outcomes and differences in treatment response after BAO. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO between November 1, 2002, and October 1, 2007. Stroke severity at time of treatment was dichotomised as severe (coma, locked-in state, or tetraplegia) or mild to moderate (any deficit that was less than severe). Outcome was assessed at 1 month. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale score of 4 or 5, or death. Patients were divided into three groups according to the treatment they received: antithrombotic treatment only (AT), which comprised antiplatelet drugs or systemic anticoagulation; primary intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), including subsequent intra-arterial thrombolysis; or intra-arterial therapy (IAT), which comprised thrombolysis, mechanical thrombectomy, stenting, or a combination of these approaches. Risk ratios (RR) for treatment effects were adjusted for age, the severity of neurological deficits at the time of treatment, time to treatment, prodromal minor stroke, location of the occlusion, and diabetes. FINDINGS: 619 patients were entered in the registry. 27 patients were excluded from the analyses because they did not receive AT, IVT, or IAT, and all had a poor outcome. Of the 592 patients who were analysed, 183 were treated with only AT, 121 with IVT, and 288 with IAT. Overall, 402 (68%) of the analysed patients had a poor outcome. No statistically significant superiority was found for any treatment strategy. Compared with outcome after AT, patients with a mild-to-moderate deficit (n=245) had about the same risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.60-1.45) or after IAT (adjusted RR 1.29, 0.97-1.72) but had a worse outcome after IAT compared with IVT (adjusted RR 1.49, 1.00-2.23). Compared with AT, patients with a severe deficit (n=347) had a lower risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.88, 0.76-1.01) or IAT (adjusted RR 0.94, 0.86-1.02), whereas outcomes were similar after treatment with IAT or IVT (adjusted RR 1.06, 0.91-1.22). INTERPRETATION: Most patients in the BASICS registry received IAT. Our results do not support unequivocal superiority of IAT over IVT, and the efficacy of IAT versus IVT in patients with an acute BAO needs to be assessed in a randomised controlled trial. FUNDING: Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht.

The Effect of Heat Treatment of Forages on Degradation Kinetics and Escape Protein Concentration

An in situ study was conducted to evaluate the effects of heat treatments on the degradation kinetics and escape protein concentrations of forages (alfalfa and berseem clover). Alfalfa collected at 4 and 7 weeks post-harvest and berseem clover collected at 5 and 7 weeks postharvest were freeze-dried and then heated to 100, 125, and 150o C for 2 hours. Heat treatment effects were determined by placing two bags of sample (for each treatment, maturity, and forage species for a given incubation times) into the rumen of one fistulated steer fed alfalfa hay. Bags were incubated for periods of 0 to 48 hours. Increasing levels of heat treatments of forages increased concentrations of neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), and acid detergent insoluble nitrogen (ADIN) and non-degradable protein (NDP), potentially degradable protein proportion (PDP), and protein escaping rumen degradation (PEP) while decreasing water soluble protein (WSP) and the rates of crude protein (CP), except immature berseem clover and cell wall (CW) degradation. PEP was greater and rate of CP degradation was lower at 100 and 150o C compared to 125o C in immature berseem clover.

Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

Comparative effects of teriparatide and ibandronate on spine bone mineral density (BMD) and microarchitecture (TBS) in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: a 2-year open-label study

UNLABELLED Treatment effects over 2 years of teriparatide vs. ibandronate in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were compared using lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS). Teriparatide induced larger increases in BMD and TBS compared to ibandronate, suggesting a more pronounced effect on bone microarchitecture of the bone anabolic drug. INTRODUCTION The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitecture, independent of bone mineral density (BMD), calculated from anteroposterior spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. The potential role of TBS for monitoring treatment response with bone-active substances is not established. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of recombinant human 1-34 parathyroid hormone (teriparatide) and the bisphosphonate ibandronate (IBN), on lumbar spine (LS) BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. METHODS Two patient groups with matched age, body mass index (BMI), and baseline LS BMD, treated with either daily subcutaneous teriparatide (N = 65) or quarterly intravenous IBN (N = 122) during 2 years and with available LS BMD measurements at baseline and 2 years after treatment initiation were compared. RESULTS Baseline characteristics (overall mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age 67.9 ± 7.4 years, body mass index 23.8 ± 3.8 kg/m(2), BMD L1-L4 0.741 ± 0.100 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.208 ± 0.100. Over 24 months, teriparatide induced a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN (+7.6 % ± 6.3 vs. +2.9 % ± 3.3 and +4.3 % ± 6.6 vs. +0.3 % ± 4.1, respectively; P < 0.0001 for both). LS BMD and TBS were only weakly correlated at baseline (r (2) = 0.04) with no correlation between the changes in BMD and TBS over 24 months. CONCLUSIONS In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, a 2-year treatment with teriparatide led to a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN, suggesting that teriparatide had more pronounced effects on bone microarchitecture than IBN.

Assessment of ultra-high resolution optical coherence tomography for monitoring tissue effects caused by laser photocoagulation of ex-vivo porcine retina

Retinal laser photocoagulation is an established and successful treatment for a variety of retinal diseases. While being a valuable treatment modality, laser photocoagulation shows the drawback of employing high energy lasers which are capable of physically destroying the neural retina. For reliable therapy, it is therefore crucial to closely monitor the therapy effects caused in the retinal tissue. A depth resolved representation of optical tissue properties as provided by optical coherence tomography may provide valuable information about the treatment effects in the retinal layers if recorded simultaneously to laser coagulation. Therefore, in this work, the use of ultra-high resolution optical coherence tomography to represent tissue changes caused by conventional and selective retinal photocoagulation is investigated. Laser lesions were placed on porcine retina ex-vivo using a 577 nm laser as well as a pulsed laser at 527 nm built for selective treatment of the retinal pigment epithelium. Applied energies were varied to generate lesions best representing the span from under- to overtreatment. The lesions were examined using a custom-designed optical coherence tomography system with an axial resolution of 1.78 μm and 70 kHz Ascan rate. Optical coherence tomography scans included volume scans before and after irradiation, as well as time lapse scans (Mscan) of the lesions. Results show OCT lesion visibility thresholds to be below the thresholds of ophthalmoscopic inspection. With the ultra-high resolution OCT, 42% - 44% of ophthalmoscopically invisible lesions could be detected and lesions that were under- or overexposed could be distinguished using the OCT data.

Cognitive rehabilitation of working memory in juvenile multiple sclerosis-effects on cognitive functioning, functional MRI and network related connectivity.

PURPOSE To assess possible effects of working memory (WM) training on cognitive functionality, functional MRI and brain connectivity in patients with juvenile MS. METHODS Cognitive status, fMRI and inter-network connectivity were assessed in 5 cases with juvenile MS aged between 12 and 18 years. Afterwards they received a computerized WM training for four weeks. Primary cognitive outcome measures were WM (visual and verbal) and alertness. Activation patterns related to WM were assessed during fMRI using an N-Back task with increasing difficulty. Inter-network connectivity analyses were focused on fronto-parietal (left and right), default-mode (dorsal and ventral) and the anterior salience network. Cognitive functioning, fMRI and inter-network connectivity were reassessed directly after the training and again nine months following training. RESULTS Response to treatment was seen in two patients. These patients showed increased performance in WM and alertness after the training. These behavioural changes were accompanied by increased WM network activation and systematic changes in inter-network connectivity. The remaining participants were non-responders to treatment. Effects on cognitive performance were maintained up to nine months after training, whereas effects observed by fMRI disappeared. CONCLUSIONS Responders revealed training effects on all applied outcome measures. Disease activity and general intelligence may be factors associated with response to treatment.

Effectiveness of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of pain in knee and hip osteoarthritis: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the backbone of osteoarthritis pain management. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of different preparations and doses of NSAIDs on osteoarthritis pain in a network meta-analysis. METHODS For this network meta-analysis, we considered randomised trials comparing any of the following interventions: NSAIDs, paracetamol, or placebo, for the treatment of osteoarthritis pain. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the reference lists of relevant articles for trials published between Jan 1, 1980, and Feb 24, 2015, with at least 100 patients per group. The prespecified primary and secondary outcomes were pain and physical function, and were extracted in duplicate for up to seven timepoints after the start of treatment. We used an extension of multivariable Bayesian random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons with a random effect at the level of trials. For the primary analysis, a random walk of first order was used to account for multiple follow-up outcome data within a trial. Preparations that used different total daily dose were considered separately in the analysis. To assess a potential dose-response relation, we used preparation-specific covariates assuming linearity on log relative dose. FINDINGS We identified 8973 manuscripts from our search, of which 74 randomised trials with a total of 58 556 patients were included in this analysis. 23 nodes concerning seven different NSAIDs or paracetamol with specific daily dose of administration or placebo were considered. All preparations, irrespective of dose, improved point estimates of pain symptoms when compared with placebo. For six interventions (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 30 mg/day, 60 mg/day, and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 mg/day and 50 mg/day), the probability that the difference to placebo is at or below a prespecified minimum clinically important effect for pain reduction (effect size [ES] -0·37) was at least 95%. Among maximally approved daily doses, diclofenac 150 mg/day (ES -0·57, 95% credibility interval [CrI] -0·69 to -0·46) and etoricoxib 60 mg/day (ES -0·58, -0·73 to -0·43) had the highest probability to be the best intervention, both with 100% probability to reach the minimum clinically important difference. Treatment effects increased as drug dose increased, but corresponding tests for a linear dose effect were significant only for celecoxib (p=0·030), diclofenac (p=0·031), and naproxen (p=0·026). We found no evidence that treatment effects varied over the duration of treatment. Model fit was good, and between-trial heterogeneity and inconsistency were low in all analyses. All trials were deemed to have a low risk of bias for blinding of patients. Effect estimates did not change in sensitivity analyses with two additional statistical models and accounting for methodological quality criteria in meta-regression analysis. INTERPRETATION On the basis of the available data, we see no role for single-agent paracetamol for the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis irrespective of dose. We provide sound evidence that diclofenac 150 mg/day is the most effective NSAID available at present, in terms of improving both pain and function. Nevertheless, in view of the safety profile of these drugs, physicians need to consider our results together with all known safety information when selecting the preparation and dose for individual patients. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405340-104762) and Arco Foundation, Switzerland.

Multivariate methods for correlated effects sizes

Current statistical methods for estimation of parametric effect sizes from a series of experiments are generally restricted to univariate comparisons of standardized mean differences between two treatments. Multivariate methods are presented for the case in which effect size is a vector of standardized multivariate mean differences and the number of treatment groups is two or more. The proposed methods employ a vector of independent sample means for each response variable that leads to a covariance structure which depends only on correlations among the $p$ responses on each subject. Using weighted least squares theory and the assumption that the observations are from normally distributed populations, multivariate hypotheses analogous to common hypotheses used for testing effect sizes were formulated and tested for treatment effects which are correlated through a common control group, through multiple response variables observed on each subject, or both conditions.^ The asymptotic multivariate distribution for correlated effect sizes is obtained by extending univariate methods for estimating effect sizes which are correlated through common control groups. The joint distribution of vectors of effect sizes (from $p$ responses on each subject) from one treatment and one control group and from several treatment groups sharing a common control group are derived. Methods are given for estimation of linear combinations of effect sizes when certain homogeneity conditions are met, and for estimation of vectors of effect sizes and confidence intervals from $p$ responses on each subject. Computational illustrations are provided using data from studies of effects of electric field exposure on small laboratory animals. ^

Effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification on early life stages of marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma)

The potential effects of elevated CO2 level and reduced carbonate saturation state in marine environment on fishes and other non-calcified organisms are still poorly known. In present study, we investigated the effects of ocean acidification on embryogenesis and organogenesis of newly hatched larvae of marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) after 21 d exposure of eggs to different artificially acidified seawater (pH 7.6 and 7.2, respectively), and compared with those in control group (pH 8.2). Results showed that CO2-driven seawater acidification (pH 7.6 and 7.2) had no detectable effect on hatching time, hatching rate, and heart rate of embryos. However, the deformity rate of larvae in pH 7.2 treatment was significantly higher than that in control treatment. The left and right sagitta areas did not differ significantly from each other in each treatment. However, the mean sagitta area of larvae in pH 7.6 treatment was significantly smaller than that in the control (p = 0.024). These results suggest that although marine medaka might be more tolerant of elevated CO2 than some other fishes, the effect of elevated CO2 level on the calcification of otolith is likely to be the most susceptibly physiological process of pH regulation in early life stage of marine medaka.

Effects of ocean acidification caused by rising CO2 on the early development of three mollusks

Increasing atmospheric CO2 can decrease seawater pH and carbonate ions, which may adversely affect the larval survival of calcareous animals. In this study, we simulated future atmospheric CO2 concentrations (800, 1500, 2000 and 3000 ppm) and examined the effects of ocean acidification on the early development of 3 mollusks (the abalones Haliotis diversicolor and H. discus hannai and the oyster Crassostrea angulata). We showed that fertilization rate, hatching rate, larval shell length, trochophore development, veliger survival and metamorphosis all decreased significantly at different pCO2 levels (except oyster hatching). H. discus hannai were more tolerant of high CO2 compared to H. diversicolor. At 2000 ppm CO2, 79.2% of H. discus hannai veliger larvae developed normally, but only 13.3% of H. diversicolor veliger larvae. Tolerance of C. angulata to ocean acidification was greater than the 2 abalone species; 50.5% of its D-larvae developed normally at 3000 ppm CO2. This apparent resistance of C. angulata to ocean acidification may be attributed to their adaptability to estuarine environments. Mechanisms underlying the resistance to ocean acidification of both abalones requires further investigation. Our results suggest that ocean acidification may decrease the yield of these 3 economically important shellfish if increasing CO2 is a future trend.