The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

The effect of flex fuel vehicles in the Brazilian light road transportation

The retaking of the ethanol program in the year 2003 as a fuel for light road transportation in Brazil through the introduction of flex fuel vehicles fleet was a good strategy to overcome the difficulties of the ethanol production sector and did work to increase its market share relative to gasoline. This process, however, may cause a future disequilibrium on the food production and on the refining oil derivates structure. In order to analyze the substitution process resultant of the competition between two opponents fighting for the same market, in this case the gasoline/ethanol substitution process, a method derived from the biomathematics based on the non-linear differential equations (NLDE) system is utilized. A brief description of the method is presented. Numerical adherence of the method to explain several substitution phenomena that occurred in the past is presented in the previous author`s paper, in which the urban gas pipeline system substitution of bottled LPG in the dwelling sector and the substitution of the urban diesel transportation fleet by compressed natural gas (CNG) buses is presented. The proposed method is particularly suitable for prospective analysis and scenarios assessment. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PROSPECTS AND ISSUES FOR FUEL CELLS WITH FREIGHT RAIL TRANSPORTATION

Recent changes in the cost and availability of natural gas (NG) as compared to diesel have sparked interest at all levels of the commercial shipping sector. In particular, Class 1 heavy-duty rail has been researching NG as a supplement to diesel combustion. This study investigates the relative economic and emissions advantage of making use of the energy efficiencies if combustion is circumvented altogether by use of fuel cell (FC) technologies applied to NG. FC technology for the transport sector has primarily been developed for the private automobile. However, FC use in the automobile sector faces considerable economic and logistical barriers such as cost, range, durability, and refueling infrastructure. The heavy-duty freight sector may be a more reasonable setting to introduce FC technology to the transportation market. The industry has shown interest in adopting NG as a potential fuel by already investing in NG infrastructure and locomotives. The two most promising FC technologies are proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). SOFCs are more efficient and capable of accepting any kind of fuel, which makes them particularly attractive. The rail industry can benefit from the adoption of FC technology through reduced costs and emissions, as well as limiting dependence on diesel, which accounts for a large portion of operation expenses for Class 1 railroads. This report provides an economic feasibility analysis comparing the use of PEMFCs and SOFCs in heavy freight rail transport applications. The scope is to provide insight into which technologies could be pursued by the industry and to prioritize technologies that need further development. Initial results do not show economic potential for NG and fuel cells in locomotion, but some minimal potential for reduced emissions is seen. Various technology configurations and market scenarios analyzed could provide savings if the price of LNG is decreased and the price of diesel increases. The most beneficial areas of needed research include technology development for the variable output of SOFCs, and hot start-up optimization.

Transport Sector and Regional Price Differentials: A SCGE Model for Chinese Provinces

With regression formulas replaced by equilibrium conditions, a spatial CGE model can substantially reduce data requirements. Detailed regional analyses are thus possible in countries where only limited regional statistics are available. While regional price differentials play important roles in multi-regional settings, transport does not receive much attention in existing models. This paper formulates a spatial CGE model that explicitly considers the transport sector and FOB/CIF prices. After describing the model, performance of our model is evaluated by comparing the benchmark equilibrium for China with survey-based regional I-O and interregional I-O tables for 1987. The structure of Chinese economies is summarized using information obtained from the benchmark equilibrium computation. This includes regional and sectoral production distributions and price differentials. The equilibrium for 1997 facilitates discussion of changes in regional economic structures that China has experienced in the decade.

Spatial price equilibrium and the transport sector : a trade-consistent SCGE model

This paper presents a framework for an SCGE model that is compatible with the Armington assumption and explicitly considers transport activities. In the model, the trade coefficient takes the form of a potential function,and the equilibrium market price becomes similar to the price index of varietal goods in the context of new economic geography (NEG). The features of the model are investigated by using the minimal setting, which comprises two non-transport sectors and three regions. Because transport costs are given exogenously to facilitate study of their impacts, commodity prices are also determined relative to them. The model can be described as a system of homogeneous equations, where an output in one region can arbitrarily be determined similarly as a price in the Walrasian equilibrium. The model closure is sensitive to formulation consistency so that homogeneity of the system would be lost by use of an alternative form of trade coefficients.

Agglomeration and directional imbalance of freight rates : the role of density economies in the transport sector

This paper examines the conventional assumption that bilateral transport costs are symmetric. We develop an economic geography model with transport sector in which asymmetric freight rates can occur as a result of density economies. Comparing this to models without density economies, we show that agglomeration of economic activities is more likely to emerge and that multiple equilibria can emerge for some parameters. Then we show the change in its bifurcation and stability of equilibrium and conclude that economies of density in transport flows can act as an agglomeration force.

Análisis del sector y mercado gasista nacional e internacional. : el Hub ibérico y su adaptación al sistema español

Actualmente existe un gran interés orientado hacia el mercado del gas natural. Son muchas las razones por las que este combustible se posiciona como uno de los más importantes dentro del panorama energético mundial. Además de que salvaría el hueco dejado por el carbón y el petróleo, supone una alternativa mucho más limpia que se podría desarrollar aún más tanto a nivel doméstico, industrial como en el mundo de los transportes. La industria del gas natural está cambiando rápidamente fundamentalmente por la aparición del gas no convencional y sus técnicas de extracción. Por lo que se está produciendo un cambio en la economía de la producción de gas así como en la dinámica y los movimientos del GNL a lo largo de todo el planeta. El propósito de este estudio es enfocar el estado del sector y mercado del gas natural en todo el mundo y de esta forma subrayar las principales regiones que marcan la tendencia general de los precios de todo el planeta. Además, este trabajo reflejará los pronósticos esperados para los próximos años así como un resumen de las tendencias que se han seguido hasta el momento. Particularmente, se centrará la atención en el movimiento hacia los sistemas basados en forma de hub que comenzaron en EE.UU. y que llegaron a Reino Unido y al continente Europeo a principios del S.XX. Esta tendencia es la que se pretende implantar en España con el fin de conseguir una mayor competitividad, flexibilidad y liquidez en los precios y en el sistema gasista. De esta forma, poco a poco se irá construyendo la estructura hacia un Mercado Único Europeo que es el objetivo final que plantean los organismos de los estados miembros. Sin embargo, para la puesta en marcha de este nuevo modelo es necesario realizar una serie de cambios en el sistema como la modificación de la Ley de Hidrocarburos, la designación de un Operador de Mercado, elaboración de una serie de reglas para regular el mercado así como fomentar la liquidez del mercado. Cuando tenga lugar el cambio regulatorio, la liquidez del sistema español incrementará y se dará la oportunidad de crear nuevas formas para balancear las carteras de gas y establecer nuevas estrategias para gestionar el riesgo. No obstante, antes de que se hagan efectivos los cambios en la legislación, se implantaría uno de los modelos planteados en el “Gas Target Model”, el denominado “Modelo de Asignación de Capacidad Implícita”. La introducción de este modelo sería un primer paso para la integración de un mercado de gas sin la necesidad de afrontar un cambio legislativo, lo que serviría de VIII impulso para alcanzar el “Modelo de Área de Mercado” que sería el mejor para el sistema gasista español y se conectaría ampliamente con el resto de mercados europeos. Las conclusiones del estudio en relación a la formación del nuevo modelo en forma de hub plantean la necesidad de aprovechar al máximo la nueva situación y conseguir implantar el hub lo antes posible para poder dotar al sistema de mayor competencia y liquidez. Además, el sistema español debe aprovechar su gran capacidad y moderna infraestructura para convertir al país en la entrada de gas del suroeste de Europa ampliando así la seguridad de suministro de los países miembros. Otra conclusión que se puede extraer del informe es la necesidad de ampliar el índice de penetración del gas en España e incentivar el consumo frente a otros combustibles fósiles como el carbón y el petróleo. Esto situaría al gas natural como la principal energía de respaldo con respecto a las renovables y permitiría disminuir los precios del kilovatio hora del gas natural. El estudio y análisis de la dinámica que se viene dando en la industria del gas en el mundo es fundamental para poder anticiparse y planear las mejores estrategias frente a los cambios que poco a poco irán modificando el sector y el mercado gasista. ABSTRACT There is a great deal of focus on the natural gas market at the moment. Whether you view natural gas as bridging the gap between coal/oil and an altogether cleaner solution yet to be determined, or as a destination fuel which will be used not only for heating and gas fired generation but also as transportation fuel, there is no doubt that natural gas will have an increasingly important role to play in the global energy landscape. The natural gas industry is changing rapidly, as shale gas exploration changes the economics of gas production and LNG connects regions across the globe. The purpose of this study is to outline the present state of the global gas industry highlighting the differing models around the world. This study will pay particular attention to the move towards hub based pricing that has taken hold first in the US and over the past decade across the UK and Continental Europe. In the coming years the Spanish model will move towards hub based pricing. As gas market regulatory change takes hold, liquidity in the Spanish gas market will increase, bringing with it new ways to balance gas portfolios and placing an increasing focus on managing price risk. This study will in turn establish the links between the changes that have taken place in other markets as a way to better understanding how the Spanish market will evolve in the coming years.

Internet-based applications in the agri-food supply chain:a survey on the Greek canning sector

In the agri-food industry, Internet-based applications changed the way companies conduct business mainly by facilitating activities that were already taking place, rather by giving birth to virtual networks creation. Due to the specific characteristics of the sector, Internet's huge potential has not been fully exploited yet, still remaining a new communication tool. This paper aims at giving empirical insights regarding the use of Internet-based applications in the agri-food supply chain, by focusing on the Greek fruit canning sector. In particular, the paper identifies companies' perceptions regarding perceived benefits, constrained factors and motivation factors towards the use of Internet-based applications. Results indicate that companies recognise benefits arising from the use of Internet, however they still use traditional ways when communicating with their partners. Regarding transportation issues, while companies' overall satisfaction is rather moderate and differs significantly from the importance placed on a number of criteria, companies are still sceptical in using Electronic Transportation Marketplace. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective energy conservation and management in the building sector : the answer to the energy predicament

Modern civilization has developed principally through man's harnessing of forces. For centuries man had to rely on wind, water and animal force as principal sources of power. The advent of the industrial revolution, electrification and the development of new technologies led to the application of wood, coal, gas, petroleum, and uranium to fuel new industries, produce goods and means of transportation, and generate the electrical energy which has become such an integral part of our lives. The geometric growth in energy consumption, coupled with the world's unrestricted growth in population, has caused a disproportionate use of these limited natural resources. The resulting energy predicament could have serious consequences within the next half century unless we commit ourselves to the philosophy of effective energy conservation and management. National legislation, along with the initiative of private industry and growing interest in the private sector has played a major role in stimulating the adoption of energy-conserving laws, technologies, measures, and practices. It is a matter of serious concern in the United States, where ninety-five percent of the commercial and industrial facilities which will be standing in the year 2000 - many in need of retrofit - are currently in place. To conserve energy, it is crucial to first understand how a facility consumes energy, how its users' needs are met, and how all internal and external elements interrelate. To this purpose, the major thrust of this report will be to emphasize the need to develop an energy conservation plan that incorporates energy auditing and surveying techniques. Numerous energy-saving measures and practices will be presented ranging from simple no-cost opportunities to capital intensive investments.

Integration of Social Concerns in Collaborative Logistics and Transportation Networks

Part 21: Mobility and Logistics

Evolución del transporte terrestre de carga en Colombia y su impacto en empresas del sector industrial del Valle de Aburrá

El transporte es un elemento relevante en el desarrollo de los países y, en este sentido, las inversiones que se hagan en infraestructura soportarán el crecimiento económico de los mismos -- En Colombia, la evolución de la infraestructura comenzó a principios del siglo XX con la construcción de las primeras carreteras en la década de 1930 -- Años atrás se estaban haciendo enormes esfuerzos por construir diferentes ferrocarriles con el apoyo de empresas extranjeras, que finalmente consumieron todos los recursos de la Nación, sin quedar las cuantías necesarias para mantenimiento -- El transporte férreo llegó a mover el 33% de las mercancías a nivel nacional, pero problemas de una alta carga laboral, pensional y una enorme accidentalidad, terminaron llevando el sistema al abismo -- En Antioquia se vendió el ferrocarril a la Nación en la década de 1960 y desapareció completamente hacia finales de los años noventa -- Hoy en día el transporte en Colombia se hace principalmente por carretera, teniendo que sortear una topografía agreste, lo cual hace que el traslado de mercancía al interior del país sea en muchos casos más costoso que desde los puertos hasta ciudades al otro extremo del planeta -- Problemas como el alto costo de los combustibles, el estado de las vías, la edad del parque automotor y las distancias desde los principales centros productivos hasta los puertos, hacen que las empresas pierdan competitividad en el entorno globalizado de hoy, haciendo necesaria la inversión en infraestructura en el país

Evaluación técnica y económica para analizar la viabilidad del montacargas eléctrico en el sector productivo

Esta tesis pretende demostrar y describir las diferentes características de los montacargas que existen en el mercado, teniendo en cuenta sus ventajas y desventajas, logrando como objetivo analizar la viabilidad de la implementación de los montacargas eléctricos en la industria colombiana a partir de la información brindada sobre las características esenciales de los montacargas eléctricos que hay en el mercado. Así mismo, se quiere mostrar que los montacargas eléctricos generan un ahorro sustancial en comparación con los montacargas convencionales que hay hoy en día en el mercado, logrando así que la industria colombiana reduzca sus gastos en un porcentaje mediante la implementación de las nuevas referencias de montacargas eléctricos los cuales serian una alternativa para las compañías colombianas. Mediante una detallada revisión conceptual, se mostrara la viabilidad de los montacargas eléctricos frente a los otros tipos de montacargas, teniendo como premisa el conocimiento de lo que hoy en día requieren las industrias colombianas, y cumpliendo así con una detallada comparación en donde se enfatice la diferenciación de los montacargas eléctricos con otros tipos que existen y se logre brindar una clara percepción de estos junto con las ventajas de estos vehículos para lograr así brindar mayor información a la industria colombiana sobre las ventajas de la implementación de los montacargas eléctricos en la industria colombiana.

Enhancing the reliability of electric transportation motors through insulation coordination and improved qualification

The ambitious goals of increasing the efficiency, performance and power densities of transportation drives cannot be met with compromises in the motor reliability. For the insulation specialists the challenge will be critical as the use of wide-bandgap converters (WBG, based on SiC and GaN switches) and the higher operating voltages expected for the next generation drives will enhance the electrical stresses to unprecedented levels. It is expected for the DC bus in aircrafts to reach 800 V (split +/-400 V) and beyond, driven by the urban air mobility sector and the need for electrification of electro-mechanical/electro-hydraulic actuators (an essential part of the "More Electric Aircraft" concept). Simultaneously the DC bus in electric vehicles (EV) traction motors is anticipated to increase up to 1200 V very soon. The electrical insulation system is one of the most delicate part of the machine in terms of failure probability. In particular, the appearance of partial discharges (PD) is disruptive on the reliability of the drive, especially under fast repetitive transients. Extensive experimental activity has been performed to extend the body of knowledge on PD inception, endurance under PD activity, and explore and identify new phenomena undermining the reliability. The focus has been concentrated on the impact of the WGB-converter produced waveforms and the environmental conditions typical of the aeronautical sector on insulation models. Particular effort was put in the analysis at the reduced pressures typical of aircraft cruise altitude operation. The results obtained, after a critical discussion, have been used to suggest a coordination between the insulation PD inception voltage with the converter stresses and to propose an improved qualification procedure based on the existing IEC 60034-18-41 standard.

Modeling, simulation, and control of a formation of multirotor aircraft for cooperative transportation of suspended loads

The work presented in this thesis aims to contribute to innovation in the Urban Air Mobility and Delivery sector and represents a solid starting point for air logistics and its future scenarios. The dissertation focuses on modeling, simulation, and control of a formation of multirotor aircraft for cooperative load transportation, with particular attention to environmental sustainability. First, a simulation and test environment is developed to assess technologies for suspended load stabilization. Starting from the mathematical model of two identical multirotors, formation-flight-keeping and collision-avoidance algorithms are analyzed. This approach guarantees both the safety of the vehicles within the formation and that of the payload, which may be made of people in the very near future. Afterwards, a mathematical model for the suspended load is implemented, as well as an active controller for its stabilization. The key focus of this part is represented by both analysis and control of payload oscillatory motion, by thoroughly investigating load kinetic energy decay. At this point, several test cases were introduced, in order to understand which strategy is the most effective and safe in terms of future applications in the field of air logistics.

Modelo de programação quadrática para análise da movimentação logística e comercialização da soja brasileira

The purpose of this work was to analyze the logistical distribution of Brazilian soybean by applying a quadratic programming to a spatial equilibrium model. The soybean transportation system is an important part of the soybean complex in Brazil, since the major part of the costs of this commodity derives from the transportation costs. Therefore, the optimization of this part of the process is essential to a better competitiveness of the Brazilian soybean in the international market. The Brazilian soybean complex have been increasing its agricultural share in the total of the exportation value in the last ten years, but due to other countries' investments the Brazilian exportations cannot be only focused on increasing its production but it still have to be more efficient. This way, a model was reached which can project new frames by switching the transportation costs and conduce the policy makers to new investments in the sector.