Human thermal comfort: an irreversibility-based approach emulating empirical clothed-body correlations and the conceptual energy balance equation

Exergetic analysis can provide useful information as it enables the identification of irreversible phenomena bringing about entropy generation and, therefore, exergy losses (also referred to as irreversibilities). As far as human thermal comfort is concerned, irreversibilities can be evaluated based on parameters related to both the occupant and his surroundings. As an attempt to suggest more insights for the exergetic analysis of thermal comfort, this paper calculates irreversibility rates for a sitting person wearing fairly light clothes and subjected to combinations of ambient air and mean radiant temperatures. The thermodynamic model framework relies on the so-called conceptual energy balance equation together with empirical correlations for invoked thermoregulatory heat transfer rates adapted for a clothed body. Results suggested that a minimum irreversibility rate may exist for particular combinations of the aforesaid surrounding temperatures. By separately considering the contribution of each thermoregulatory mechanism, the total irreversibility rate rendered itself more responsive to either convective or radiative clothing-influenced heat transfers, with exergy losses becoming lower if the body is able to transfer more heat (to the ambient) via convection.

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Confocal microscopy applied to the study of single entity fluorescence and light scattering

A sample scanning confocal optical microscope (SCOM) was designed and constructed in order to perform local measurements of fluorescence, light scattering and Raman scattering. This instrument allows to measure time resolved fluorescence, Raman scattering and light scattering from the same diffraction limited spot. Fluorescence from single molecules and light scattering from metallic nanoparticles can be studied. First, the electric field distribution in the focus of the SCOM was modelled. This enables the design of illumination modes for different purposes, such as the determination of the three-dimensional orientation of single chromophores. Second, a method for the calculation of the de-excitation rates of a chromophore was presented. This permits to compare different detection schemes and experimental geometries in order to optimize the collection of fluorescence photons. Both methods were combined to calculate the SCOM fluorescence signal of a chromophore in a general layered system. The fluorescence excitation and emission of single molecules through a thin gold film was investigated experimentally and modelled. It was demonstrated that, due to the mediation of surface plasmons, single molecule fluorescence near a thin gold film can be excited and detected with an epi-illumination scheme through the film. Single molecule fluorescence as close as 15nm to the gold film was studied in this manner. The fluorescence dynamics (fluorescence blinking and excited state lifetime) of single molecules was studied in the presence and in the absence of a nearby gold film in order to investigate the influence of the metal on the electronic transition rates. The trace-histogram and the autocorrelation methods for the analysis of single molecule fluorescence blinking were presented and compared via the analysis of Monte-Carlo simulated data. The nearby gold influences the total decay rate in agreement to theory. The gold presence produced no influence on the ISC rate from the excited state to the triplet but increased by a factor of 2 the transition rate from the triplet to the singlet ground state. The photoluminescence blinking of Zn0.42Cd0.58Se QDs on glass and ITO substrates was investigated experimentally as a function of the excitation power (P) and modelled via Monte-Carlo simulations. At low P, it was observed that the probability of a certain on- or off-time follows a negative power-law with exponent near to 1.6. As P increased, the on-time fraction reduced on both substrates whereas the off-times did not change. A weak residual memory effect between consecutive on-times and consecutive off-times was observed but not between an on-time and the adjacent off-time. All of this suggests the presence of two independent mechanisms governing the lifetimes of the on- and off-states. The simulated data showed Poisson-distributed off- and on-intensities, demonstrating that the observed non-Poissonian on-intensity distribution of the QDs is not a product of the underlying power-law probability and that the blinking of QDs occurs between a non-emitting off-state and a distribution of emitting on-states with different intensities. All the experimentally observed photo-induced effects could be accounted for by introducing a characteristic lifetime tPI of the on-state in the simulations. The QDs on glass presented a tPI proportional to P-1 suggesting the presence of a one-photon process. Light scattering images and spectra of colloidal and C-shaped gold nano-particles were acquired. The minimum size of a metallic scatterer detectable with the SCOM lies around 20 nm.

Follicle flushing in monofollicular in vitro fertilization almost doubles the number of transferable embryos

Follicle flushing has been proved to be ineffective in polyfollicular in vitro fertilization. To analyze the effect of flushing in monofollicular in vitro fertilization we aspirated and then flushed the follicles in 164 cycles. Total oocyte yield/aspiration was 44.5% in the aspirate, 20.7% in the 1(st) flush, 10.4% in the 2(nd) flush and 4.3% in the 3(rd) flush. By flushing, the total oocyte yield increased (p < 0.01) by 80.9%, from 44.5 to 80.5%. The total transfer rate increased (p < 0.01) by 91.0%, from 20.1 to 38.4%. The results indicate that the oocyte yield and the number of transferable embryos can be increased significantly by flushing.

Patients with erythrophobia (fear of blushing) show abnormal autonomic regulation in mental stress conditions

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to analyze the autonomic functions of patients with erythrophobia. METHODS: Forty patients with a diagnosis of erythrophobia (female/male ratio 18/22) without any other organic lesions and 20 healthy volunteers (female/male ratio 10/10) were assessed. Clinical evaluation was performed using a modified version of semistructured interviews. Autonomic testing was performed by means of spectral analysis of heart rate and continuous blood pressure by sparse discrete Fourier transformation at rest and under mental stress. RESULTS: There were no significant difference between the two samples in age, sex distribution, BMI, resting systolic, or diastolic blood pressure, nor was there a difference in autonomic baseline functioning between the 40 patients with erythrophobia and the control subjects. On the other hand, patients with erythrophobia consistently showed higher pulse rates (88 +/- 20 vs. 78 +/- 9 bpm, p <.05), higher total heart rate power values (8.40 +/- 0.63 vs. 8.07 +/- 1.02 p <.05), higher midfrequency spectral values (7.38 +/- 0.66 vs. 7.02 +/- 1.18, p <.01), higher high-frequency spectral values (6.89 +/- 0.86 vs. 6.48 +/- 1.44, p <.05), and lower baroreceptor sensitivity (8.62 +/- 8.16 vs. 11.65 +/- 4.42, p <.005) than the healthy subjects. ANOVA showed a significant group interaction (p <.0001) between the samples. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for abnormal autonomic functioning in patients with erythrophobia when under mental stress.

A systematic review of the clinical performance of CAD/CAM single-tooth restorations

PURPOSE: This systematic review sought to determine the long-term clinical survival rates of single-tooth restorations fabricated with computer-aided design/computer-assisted manufacture (CAD/CAM) technology, as well as the frequency of failures depending on the CAD/CAM system, the type of restoration, the selected material, and the luting agent. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An electronic search from 1985 to 2007 was performed using two databases: Medline/PubMed and Embase. Selected keywords and well-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria guided the search. All articles were first reviewed by title, then by abstract, and subsequently by a full text reading. Data were assessed and extracted by two independent examiners. The pooled results were statistically analyzed and the overall failure rate was calculated by assuming a Poisson-distributed number of events. In addition, reported failures were analyzed by CAD/CAM system, type of restoration, restorative material, and luting agent. RESULTS: From a total of 1,957 single-tooth restorations with a mean exposure time of 7.9 years and 170 failures, the failure rate was 1.75% per year, estimated per 100 restoration years (95% CI: 1.22% to 2.52%). The estimated total survival rate after 5 years of 91.6% (95% CI: 88.2% to 94.1%) was based on random-effects Poisson regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term survival rates for CAD/CAM single-tooth Cerec 1, Cerec 2, and Celay restorations appear to be similar to conventional ones. No clinical studies or randomized clinical trials reporting on other CAD/CAM systems currently used in clinical practice and with follow-up reports of 3 or more years were found at the time of the search.

River loads and modern denudation of the Alps — A review

This paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of sediment and dissolved load across an entire mountain range. We investigate patterns and rates of modern denudation of the European Alps based on a compilation of data about river loads and reservoir sedimentation from 202 drainage basins that are between ca. 1 to 10,000 km2 large. The study basins cover about 50% of the total area of the Alps. Modern glaciated basins have the highest sediment yields of up to 7000 t km− 2 a− 1, which are on average 5 to 10 times higher than in non-glaciated basins. Likewise sediment yield and glacial cover are positively correlated. Instead, relief is a relatively weak predictor of sediment yield. The strong glacial impact in the correlations is due to glacier recession since the 19th century as well as due to glacial conditioning during repeated Quaternary glaciations which have produced the strong transient state of the Alpine landscape. We suggest that this is the major cause for ca. 3 fold enhanced denudation of the western compared to the eastern Alps. Chemical denudation rates are highest in the external Alps dominated by carbonate sedimentary rocks, where they make up about one third of total denudation. The high rates cannot be explained without anhydrite dissolution. We estimated that only 45% of the sediments mobilized in headwaters are exported out off the Alps, most sediments being trapped in artificial reservoirs. The total amount of sediment annually trapped within the Alps equates to 43 Mt. When corrected for sediment storage, we obtain an area-weighted mean total denudation rate for the Alps of about 0.32 mm a− 1. The pre-dam rate might be as high as 0.42 mm a− 1. In total, ca. 35 plus 23 Mt of mass are exported each year out of the Alps as solids and solutes, respectively. These rates are not enough to out pace modern rock uplift. Nevertheless, pattern of sediment yield across the Alps coincides roughly with the intensity of glacial conditioning and modern rock uplift, supporting the hypothesis of an erosion-driven uplift of the Alps.

Comparison of 3D kinetic and hydrodynamic models to ROSINA-COPS measurements of the neutral coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a Jupiter-family comet and the object of investigation of the European Space Agency mission Rosetta. This report presents the first full 3D simulation results of 67P’s neutral gas coma. In this study we include results from a direct simulation Monte Carlo method, a hydrodynamic code, and a purely geometric calculation which computes the total illuminated surface area on the nucleus. All models include the triangulated 3D shape model of 67P as well as realistic illumination and shadowing conditions. The basic concept is the assumption that these illumination conditions on the nucleus are the main driver for the gas activity of the comet. As a consequence, the total production rate of 67P varies as a function of solar insolation. The best agreement between the model and the data is achieved when gas fluxes on the night side are in the range of 7% to 10% of the maximum flux, accounting for contributions from the most volatile components. To validate the output of our numerical simulations we compare the results of all three models to in situ gas number density measurements from the ROSINA COPS instrument. We are able to reproduce the overall features of these local neutral number density measurements of ROSINA COPS for the time period between early August 2014 and January 1 2015 with all three models. Some details in the measurements are not reproduced and warrant further investigation and refinement of the models. However, the overall assumption that illumination conditions on the nucleus are at least an important driver of the gas activity is validated by the models. According to our simulation results we find the total production rate of 67P to be constant between August and November 2014 with a value of about 1 × 10²⁶ molecules s⁻¹.

Reporting and handling missing outcome data in mental health: a systematic review of Cochrane systematic reviews and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES The purpose of the study was to provide empirical evidence about the reporting of methodology to address missing outcome data and the acknowledgement of their impact in Cochrane systematic reviews in the mental health field. METHODS Systematic reviews published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews after January 1, 2009 by three Cochrane Review Groups relating to mental health were included. RESULTS One hundred ninety systematic reviews were considered. Missing outcome data were present in at least one included study in 175 systematic reviews. Of these 175 systematic reviews, 147 (84%) accounted for missing outcome data by considering a relevant primary or secondary outcome (e.g., dropout). Missing outcome data implications were reported only in 61 (35%) systematic reviews and primarily in the discussion section by commenting on the amount of the missing outcome data. One hundred forty eligible meta-analyses with missing data were scrutinized. Seventy-nine (56%) of them had studies with total dropout rate between 10 and 30%. One hundred nine (78%) meta-analyses reported to have performed intention-to-treat analysis by including trials with imputed outcome data. Sensitivity analysis for incomplete outcome data was implemented in less than 20% of the meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS Reporting of the techniques for handling missing outcome data and their implications in the findings of the systematic reviews are suboptimal.

Age models, accumulation rates, sand and carbonates at DSDP Leg 74 holes

Accumulation rates for the five sites drilled during Leg 74 of the Glomar Challenger are presented on a common timescale based on calibration of datum levels to paleomagnetic records in Leg 74 sediments for the Paleogene, and a new compilation by Berggren et al. (1985), for the Neogene, and using the seafloor-spreading magnetic anomaly timescale of Kent (1985). We present data on accumulation of total sediment, of foraminifers, of the noncarbonate portion, and of fish teeth that give a history of productivity, winnowing, carbonate dissolution, and nonbiogenic input to what was then a part of the South Atlantic at about 30 deg S.

Sampling data, experimental data and fecal pellet characteristics of water pump samples in the strait of Øresund between Denmark and Sweden during 2004/2005

Copepod fecal pellets are often degraded at high rates within the upper part of the water column. However, the identity of the degraders and the processes governing the degradation remain unresolved. To identify the pellet degraders we collected water from Øresund (Denmark) approximately every second month from July 2004 to July 2005. These water samples were divided into 5 fractions (<0.2, <2, <20, <100, <200 µm) and total (unfractionated). We determined fecal pellet degradation rate and species composition of the plankton from triplicate incubations of each fraction and a known, added amount of fecal pellets. The total degradation rate of pellets by the natural plankton community of Øresund followed the phytoplankton biomass, with maximum degradation rate during the spring bloom (2.5 ± 0.49 d**-1) and minimum (0.52 ± 0.14 d**-1) during late winter. Total pellet removal rate ranged from 22% d**-1 (July 2005) to 87% d**-1 (May). Protozooplankton (dinoflagellates and ciliates) in the size range of 20 to 100 µm were the key degraders of the fecal pellets, contributing from 15 to 53% of the total degradation rate. Free-living in situ bacteria did not affect pellet degradation rate significantly; however, culture-originating bacteria introduced in association with the pellets contributed up to 59% of the total degradation rate. An effect of late-stage copepod nauplii (>200 µm) was indicated, but this was not a dominating degradation process. Mesozooplankton did not contribute significantly to the degradation. However, grazing of mesozooplankton on the pellet degraders impacts pellet degradation rate indirectly. In conclusion, protozooplankton seems to include the key organisms for the recycling of copepod fecal pellets in the water column, both through the microbial loop and, especially, by functioning as an effective 'protozoan filter' for fecal pellets.

Primary productivity and phytoplankton pigment measurements in the North Sea

During the culmination of the phytoplankton spring bloom in the Fladen Ground area in April-Mai 1976, gross primary production was between 1500 and 2000 mg particulate C m**-2 day**-1, at a crop density (mainly diatoms of the genus Chaetoceros) of about 1500-3500 mg C m**-2. Estimates of the C:chlorophyll a ratio in living cells were much lower than those reported in the literature, possibly because part of what is measured as "chlorophyll a" by the common fluorometric method is associated with particles that are not reported as cells. Most of the dark 14C fixation during the bloom's climax was due to abiotic processes. Excretion of 14C-labeled carbohydrates did not account for a significant fraction of the total photosynthetic rate. The low crop after the bloom period, in June, corresponded with nutrient depletion of the euphotic zone. The low photosynthetic efficiency in June may have been a gross underestimate. The presence of relatively high concentrations of chlorophyll derivatives signifies that the algal crop was consumed by heterotrophs, but at a lower rate in April/May than during the June cruise when particularly high molar ratios of phaeophorbide a and phaeophytin a relative to chlorophyll a were found. The high respiratory rate relative to autotrophic production in June manifested itself also in high dark 14C fixation values. The high concentration of phaeophorbide a in the upper 40 m and its scarcity below this depth during the spring bloom climax in April/May implies that copepod grazing at that time took place principally in the euphotic zone. The remarkably high concentration of chlorophyllide a in the surface layer during the bloom period indicates that the part of the crop that was destroyed by the grazers while eating was occasionally as high as the part that was actually ingested.

Petrography and geochemical composition of the Atlantis II Fracture Zone

SeaBeam echo sounding, seismic reflection, magnetics, and gravity profiles were run along closely spaced tracks (5 km) parallel to the Atlantis II Fracture Zone on the Southwest Indian Ridge, giving 80% bathymetric coverage of a 30- * 170-nmi strip centered over the fracture zone. The southern and northern rift valleys of the ridge were clearly defined and offset north-south by 199 km. The rift valleys are typical of those found elsewhere on the Southwest Indian Ridge, with relief of more than 2200 m and widths from 22 to 38 km. The ridge-transform intersections are marked by deep nodal basins lying on the transform side of the neovolcanic zone that defines the present-day spreading axis. The walls of the transform generally are steep (25°-40°), although locally, they can be more subdued. The deepest point in the transform is 6480 m in the southern nodal basin, and the shallowest is an uplifted wave-cut terrace that exposes plutonic rocks from the deepest layer of the ocean crust at 700 m. The transform valley is bisected by a 1.5-km-high median tectonic ridge that extends from the northern ridge-transform intersection to the midpoint of the active transform. The seismic survey showed that the floor of the transform contains up to 0.5 km of sediment. Piston-coring at two locations on the transform floor recovered more than 1 m of sand and gravel, which appears to be turbidites shed from the walls of the fracture zone. Extensive dredging showed that more than two-thirds of the crust exposed in the transform valley and its walls were plutonic rocks, principally gabbros and residual mantle peridotites. In contrast, based on dredging and seafloor morphology, only relatively undisrupted pillow basalt flows have been exposed on crust of the same age spreading away from the transform. Magnetic anomalies are well defined out to 11 m.y. over the flanking transverse ridges and transform valley, even where layer 2 appears to be absent. The total opening rate is 1.6 cm/yr, but the arrangement of the anomalies indicates that the spreading for each ridge is asymmetric, with the ridge flanks facing the transform spreading at a rate of 1.0 cm/yr. Such an asymmetric spreading pattern requires that both the northern and southern ridges migrate away from each other at 0.2 cm/yr, thus lengthening the transform at 0.4 cm/yr for the last 11 m.y. To the north, the fracture zone valley is oriented differently from the present-day transform, indicating a paleospreading direction change at 17 m.y. from N10°E to due north-south. This change placed the transform into extension for the 11-m.y. period required for simple orthogonal ridge-transform geometry to be reestablished and produced a large transtensional basin within the transform valley. This basin was split by continued transform slip after 11 m.y., with the larger half moving to the north with the African Plate.

European sea bass, Dicentrarchus labrax, in a changing ocean

Ocean acidification, caused by rising concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), is widely considered to be a major global threat to marine ecosystems. To investigate the potential effects of ocean acidification on the early life stages of a commercially important fish species, European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), 12 000 larvae were incubated from hatch through metamorphosis under a matrix of two temperatures (17 and 19 °C) and two seawater pCO2 levels (ambient and 1,000 µatm) and sampled regularly for 42 days. Calculated daily mortality was significantly affected by both temperature and pCO2, with both increased temperature and elevated pCO2 associated with lower daily mortality and a significant interaction between these two factors. There was no significant pCO2 effect noted on larval morphology during this period but larvae raised at 19 °C possessed significantly larger eyes and lower carbon:nitrogen ratios at the end of the study compared to those raised under 17 °C. Similarly, when the incubation was continued to post-metamorphic (juvenile) animals (day 67-69), fish raised under a combination of 19 °C and 1000 µatm pCO2 were significantly heavier. However, juvenile D. labrax raised under this combination of 19 °C and 1000 µatm pCO2 also exhibited lower aerobic scopes than those incubated at 19 °C and ambient pCO2. Most studies investigating the effects of near-future oceanic conditions on the early life stages of marine fish have used incubations of relatively short durations and suggested that these animals are resilient to ocean acidification. Whilst the increased survival and growth observed in this study supports this view, we conclude that more work is required to investigate whether the differences in juvenile physiology observed in this study manifest as negative impacts in adult fish.

Estrategias de monitorización de CO2 y otros gases en los estudios de análogos naturales

La Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) y la Università degli Studi di Firenze (UniFi), bajo la coordinación técnica de AMPHOS21, participan desde 2009 en el proyecto de investigación “Estrategias de Monitorización de CO2 y otros gases en el estudio de Análogos Naturales”, financiado por la Fundación Ciudad de la Energía (CIUDEN) en el marco del Proyecto Compostilla OXYCFB300 (http://www.compostillaproject.eu), del Programa “European Energy Program for Recovery - EEPR”. El objetivo principal del proyecto fue el desarrollo y puesta a punto de metodologías de monitorización superficiales para su aplicación en el seguimiento y control de los emplazamientos donde se realice el almacenamiento geológico de CO2, analizando técnicas que permitan detectar y cuantificar las posibles fugas de CO2 a la atmósfera. Los trabajos se realizaron tanto en análogos naturales (españoles e italianos) como en la Planta de Desarrollo Tecnológico de Almacenamiento de CO2 de Hontomín. Las técnicas analizadas se centran en la medición de gases y aguas superficiales (de escorrentía y manantiales). En cuanto a la medición de gases se analizó el flujo de CO2 que emana desde el suelo a la atmósfera y la aplicabilidad de trazadores naturales (como el radón) para la detección e identificación de las fugas de CO2. En cuanto al análisis químico de las aguas se analizaron los datos geoquímicos e isotópicos y los gases disueltos en las aguas de los alrededores de la PDT de Hontomín, con objeto de determinar qué parámetros son los más apropiados para la detección de una posible migración del CO2 inyectado, o de la salmuera, a los ambientes superficiales. Las medidas de flujo de CO2 se realizaron con la técnica de la cámara de acúmulo. A pesar de ser una técnica desarrollada y aplicada en diferentes ámbitos científicos se estimó necesario adaptar un protocolo de medida y de análisis de datos a las características específicas de los proyectos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2 (CAC). Donde los flujos de CO2 esperados son bajos y en caso de producirse una fuga habrá que detectar pequeñas variaciones en los valores flujo con un “ruido” en la señal alto, debido a actividad biológica en el suelo. La medida de flujo de CO2 mediante la técnica de la cámara de acúmulo se puede realizar sin limpiar la superficie donde se coloca la cámara o limpiando y esperando al reequilibrio del flujo después de la distorsión al sistema. Sin embargo, los resultados obtenidos después de limpiar y esperar muestran menor dispersión, lo que nos indica que este procedimiento es el mejor para la monitorización de los complejos de almacenamiento geológico de CO2. El protocolo de medida resultante, utilizado para la obtención de la línea base de flujo de CO2 en Hontomín, sigue los siguiente pasos: a) con una espátula se prepara el punto de medición limpiando y retirando el recubrimiento vegetal o la primera capa compacta de suelo, b) se espera un tiempo para la realización de la medida de flujo, facilitando el reequilibrio del flujo del gas tras la alteración provocada en el suelo y c) se realiza la medida de flujo de CO2. Una vez realizada la medición de flujo de CO2, y detectada si existen zonas de anomalías, se debe estimar la cantidad de CO2 que se está escapando a la atmósfera (emanación total), con el objetivo de cuantificar la posible fuga. Existen un amplio rango de metodologías para realizar dicha estimación, siendo necesario entender cuáles son las más apropiadas para obtener el valor más representativo del sistema. En esta tesis se comparan seis técnicas estadísticas: media aritmética, estimador insegado de la media (aplicando la función de Sichel), remuestreo con reemplazamiento (bootstrap), separación en diferentes poblaciones mediante métodos gráficos y métodos basados en criterios de máxima verosimilitud, y la simulación Gaussiana secuencial. Para este análisis se realizaron ocho campañas de muestreo, tanto en la Planta de Desarrollo Tecnológico de Hontomón como en análogos naturales (italianos y españoles). Los resultados muestran que la simulación Gaussiana secuencial suele ser el método más preciso para realizar el cálculo, sin embargo, existen ocasiones donde otros métodos son más apropiados. Como consecuencia, se desarrolla un procedimiento de actuación para seleccionar el método que proporcione el mejor estimador. Este procedimiento consiste, en primer lugar, en realizar un análisis variográfico. Si existe una autocorrelación entre los datos, modelizada mediante el variograma, la mejor técnica para calcular la emanación total y su intervalo de confianza es la simulación Gaussiana secuencial (sGs). Si los datos son independientes se debe comprobar la distribución muestral, aplicando la media aritmética o el estimador insesgado de la media (Sichel) para datos normales o lognormales respectivamente. Cuando los datos no son normales o corresponden a una mezcla de poblaciones la mejor técnica de estimación es la de remuestreo con reemplazamiento (bootstrap). Siguiendo este procedimiento el máximo valor del intervalo de confianza estuvo en el orden del ±20/25%, con la mayoría de valores comprendidos entre ±3,5% y ±8%. La identificación de las diferentes poblaciones muestrales en los datos de flujo de CO2 puede ayudar a interpretar los resultados obtenidos, toda vez que esta distribución se ve afectada por la presencia de varios procesos geoquímicos como, por ejemplo, una fuente geológica o biológica del CO2. Así pues, este análisis puede ser una herramienta útil en el programa de monitorización, donde el principal objetivo es demostrar que no hay fugas desde el reservorio a la atmósfera y, si ocurren, detectarlas y cuantificarlas. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el mejor proceso para realizar la separación de poblaciones está basado en criterios de máxima verosimilitud. Los procedimientos gráficos, aunque existen pautas para realizarlos, tienen un cierto grado de subjetividad en la interpretación de manera que los resultados son menos reproducibles. Durante el desarrollo de la tesis se analizó, en análogos naturales, la relación existente entre el CO2 y los isótopos del radón (222Rn y 220Rn), detectándose en todas las zonas de emisión de CO2 una relación positiva entre los valores de concentración de 222Rn en aire del suelo y el flujo de CO2. Comparando la concentración de 220Rn con el flujo de CO2 la relación no es tan clara, mientras que en algunos casos aumenta en otros se detecta una disminución, hecho que parece estar relacionado con la profundidad de origen del radón. Estos resultados confirmarían la posible aplicación de los isótopos del radón como trazadores del origen de los gases y su aplicación en la detección de fugas. Con respecto a la determinación de la línea base de flujo CO2 en la PDT de Hontomín, se realizaron mediciones con la cámara de acúmulo en las proximidades de los sondeos petrolíferos, perforados en los ochenta y denominados H-1, H-2, H-3 y H-4, en la zona donde se instalarán el sondeo de inyección (H-I) y el de monitorización (H-A) y en las proximidades de la falla sur. Desde noviembre de 2009 a abril de 2011 se realizaron siete campañas de muestreo, adquiriéndose más de 4.000 registros de flujo de CO2 con los que se determinó la línea base y su variación estacional. Los valores obtenidos fueron bajos (valores medios entre 5 y 13 g•m-2•d-1), detectándose pocos valores anómalos, principalmente en las proximidades del sondeo H-2. Sin embargo, estos valores no se pudieron asociar a una fuente profunda del CO2 y seguramente estuvieran más relacionados con procesos biológicos, como la respiración del suelo. No se detectaron valores anómalos cerca del sistema de fracturación (falla Ubierna), toda vez que en esta zona los valores de flujo son tan bajos como en el resto de puntos de muestreo. En este sentido, los valores de flujo de CO2 aparentemente están controlados por la actividad biológica, corroborado al obtenerse los menores valores durante los meses de otoño-invierno e ir aumentando en los periodos cálidos. Se calcularon dos grupos de valores de referencia, el primer grupo (UCL50) es 5 g•m-2•d-1 en las zonas no aradas en los meses de otoño-invierno y 3,5 y 12 g•m-2•d-1 en primavera-verano para zonas aradas y no aradas, respectivamente. El segundo grupo (UCL99) corresponde a 26 g•m-2•d- 1 durante los meses de otoño-invierno en las zonas no aradas y 34 y 42 g•m-2•d-1 para los meses de primavera-verano en zonas aradas y no aradas, respectivamente. Flujos mayores a estos valores de referencia podrían ser indicativos de una posible fuga durante la inyección y posterior a la misma. Los primeros datos geoquímicos e isotópicos de las aguas superficiales (de escorrentía y de manantiales) en el área de Hontomín–Huermeces fueron analizados. Los datos sugieren que las aguas estudiadas están relacionadas con aguas meteóricas con un circuito hidrogeológico superficial, caracterizadas por valores de TDS relativamente bajos (menor a 800 mg/L) y una fácie hidrogeoquímica de Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3 −. Algunas aguas de manantiales se caracterizan por concentraciones elevadas de NO3 − (concentraciones de hasta 123 mg/l), lo que sugiere una contaminación antropogénica. Se obtuvieron concentraciones anómalas de of Cl−, SO4 2−, As, B y Ba en dos manantiales cercanos a los sondeos petrolíferos y en el rio Ubierna, estos componentes son probablemente indicadores de una posible mezcla entre los acuíferos profundos y superficiales. El estudio de los gases disueltos en las aguas también evidencia el circuito superficial de las aguas. Estando, por lo general, dominado por la componente atmosférica (N2, O2 y Ar). Sin embargo, en algunos casos el gas predominante fue el CO2 (con concentraciones que llegan al 63% v/v), aunque los valores isotópicos del carbono (<-17,7 ‰) muestran que lo más probable es que esté relacionado con un origen biológico. Los datos geoquímicos e isotópicos de las aguas superficiales obtenidos en la zona de Hontomín se pueden considerar como el valor de fondo con el que comparar durante la fase operacional, la clausura y posterior a la clausura. En este sentido, la composición de los elementos mayoritarios y traza, la composición isotópica del carbono del CO2 disuelto y del TDIC (Carbono inorgánico disuelto) y algunos elementos traza se pueden considerar como parámetros adecuados para detectar la migración del CO2 a los ambientes superficiales. ABSTRACT Since 2009, a group made up of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM; Spain) and Università degli Studi Firenze (UniFi; Italy) has been taking part in a joint project called “Strategies for Monitoring CO2 and other Gases in Natural analogues”. The group was coordinated by AMPHOS XXI, a private company established in Barcelona. The Project was financially supported by Fundación Ciudad de la Energía (CIUDEN; Spain) as a part of the EC-funded OXYCFB300 project (European Energy Program for Recovery -EEPR-; www.compostillaproject.eu). The main objectives of the project were aimed to develop and optimize analytical methodologies to be applied at the surface to Monitor and Verify the feasibility of geologically stored carbon dioxide. These techniques were oriented to detect and quantify possible CO2 leakages to the atmosphere. Several investigations were made in natural analogues from Spain and Italy and in the Tecnchnological Development Plant for CO2 injection al Hontomín (Burgos, Spain). The studying techniques were mainly focused on the measurements of diffuse soil gases and surface and shallow waters. The soil-gas measurements included the determination of CO2 flux and the application to natural trace gases (e.g. radon) that may help to detect any CO2 leakage. As far as the water chemistry is concerned, geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of the PDT of Hontomín were analyzed to determine the most suitable parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into the near-surface environments. The accumulation chamber method was used to measure the diffuse emission of CO2 at the soil-atmosphere interface. Although this technique has widely been applied in different scientific areas, it was considered of the utmost importance to adapt the optimum methodology for measuring the CO2 soil flux and estimating the total CO2 output to the specific features of the site where CO2 is to be stored shortly. During the pre-injection phase CO2 fluxes are expected to be relatively low where in the intra- and post-injection phases, if leakages are to be occurring, small variation in CO2 flux might be detected when the CO2 “noise” is overcoming the biological activity of the soil (soil respiration). CO2 flux measurements by the accumulation chamber method could be performed without vegetation clearance or after vegetation clearance. However, the results obtained after clearance show less dispersion and this suggests that this procedure appears to be more suitable for monitoring CO2 Storage sites. The measurement protocol, applied for the determination of the CO2 flux baseline at Hontomín, has included the following steps: a) cleaning and removal of both the vegetal cover and top 2 cm of soil, b) waiting to reduce flux perturbation due to the soil removal and c) measuring the CO2 flux. Once completing the CO2 flux measurements and detected whether there were anomalies zones, the total CO2 output was estimated to quantify the amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere in each of the studied areas. There is a wide range of methodologies for the estimation of the CO2 output, which were applied to understand which one was the most representative. In this study six statistical methods are presented: arithmetic mean, minimum variances unbiased estimator, bootstrap resample, partitioning of data into different populations with a graphical and a maximum likelihood procedures, and sequential Gaussian simulation. Eight campaigns were carried out in the Hontomín CO2 Storage Technology Development Plant and in natural CO2 analogues. The results show that sequential Gaussian simulation is the most accurate method to estimate the total CO2 output and the confidential interval. Nevertheless, a variety of statistic methods were also used. As a consequence, an application procedure for selecting the most realistic method was developed. The first step to estimate the total emanation rate was the variogram analysis. If the relation among the data can be explained with the variogram, the best technique to calculate the total CO2 output and its confidence interval is the sequential Gaussian simulation method (sGs). If the data are independent, their distribution is to be analyzed. For normal and log-normal distribution the proper methods are the arithmetic mean and minimum variances unbiased estimator, respectively. If the data are not normal (log-normal) or are a mixture of different populations the best approach is the bootstrap resampling. According to these steps, the maximum confidence interval was about ±20/25%, with most of values between ±3.5% and ±8%. Partitioning of CO2 flux data into different populations may help to interpret the data as their distribution can be affected by different geochemical processes, e.g. geological or biological sources of CO2. Consequently, it may be an important tool in a monitoring CCS program, where the main goal is to demonstrate that there are not leakages from the reservoir to the atmosphere and, if occurring, to be able to detect and quantify it. Results show that the partitioning of populations is better performed by maximum likelihood criteria, since graphical procedures have a degree of subjectivity in the interpretation and results may not be reproducible. The relationship between CO2 flux and radon isotopes (222Rn and 220Rn) was studied in natural analogues. In all emissions zones, a positive relation between 222Rn and CO2 was observed. However, the relationship between activity of 220Rn and CO2 flux is not clear. In some cases the 220Rn activity indeed increased with the CO2 flux in other measurements a decrease was recognized. We can speculate that this effect was possibly related to the route (deep or shallow) of the radon source. These results may confirm the possible use of the radon isotopes as tracers for the gas origin and their application in the detection of leakages. With respect to the CO2 flux baseline at the TDP of Hontomín, soil flux measurements in the vicinity of oil boreholes, drilled in the eighties and named H-1 to H-4, and injection and monitoring wells were performed using an accumulation chamber. Seven surveys were carried out from November 2009 to summer 2011. More than 4,000 measurements were used to determine the baseline flux of CO2 and its seasonal variations. The measured values were relatively low (from 5 to 13 g•m-2•day-1) and few outliers were identified, mainly located close to the H-2 oil well. Nevertheless, these values cannot be associated to a deep source of CO2, being more likely related to biological processes, i.e. soil respiration. No anomalies were recognized close to the deep fault system (Ubierna Fault) detected by geophysical investigations. There, the CO2 flux is indeed as low as other measurement stations. CO2 fluxes appear to be controlled by the biological activity since the lowest values were recorded during autumn-winter seasons and they tend to increase in warm periods. Two reference CO2 flux values (UCL50 of 5 g•m-2•d-1 for non-ploughed areas in autumn-winter seasons and 3.5 and 12 g•m-2•d-1 for in ploughed and non-ploughed areas, respectively, in spring-summer time, and UCL99 of 26 g•m-2•d-1 for autumn-winter in not-ploughed areas and 34 and 42 g•m-2•d-1 for spring-summer in ploughed and not-ploughed areas, respectively, were calculated. Fluxes higher than these reference values could be indicative of possible leakage during the operational and post-closure stages of the storage project. The first geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of Hontomín–Huermeces (Burgos, Spain) are presented and discussed. The chemical and features of the spring waters suggest that they are related to a shallow hydrogeological system as the concentration of the Total Dissolved Solids approaches 800 mg/L with a Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3 − composition, similar to that of the surface waters. Some spring waters are characterized by relatively high concentrations of NO3 − (up to 123 mg/L), unequivocally suggesting an anthropogenic source. Anomalous concentrations of Cl−, SO4 2−, As, B and Ba were measured in two springs, discharging a few hundred meters from the oil wells, and in the Rio Ubierna. These contents are possibly indicative of mixing processes between deep and shallow aquifers. The chemistry of the dissolved gases also evidences the shallow circuits of the Hontomín– Huermeces, mainly characterized by an atmospheric source as highlighted by the contents of N2, O2, Ar and their relative ratios. Nevertheless, significant concentrations (up to 63% by vol.) of isotopically negative CO2 (<−17.7‰ V-PDB) were found in some water samples, likely related to a biogenic source. The geochemical and isotopic data of the surface and spring waters in the surroundings of Hontomín can be considered as background values when intra- and post-injection monitoring programs will be carried out. In this respect, main and minor solutes, the isotopic carbon of dissolved CO2 and TDIC (Total Dissolved Inorganic Carbon) and selected trace elements can be considered as useful parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into near-surface environments.