Time of emergence of climate signals

The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.

Investigation into the adoption intention of social CRM in Saudi banks

The growth of Web 2.0 generation will have influence on developing strong relationships with customers. Even though Web 2.0 technologies and applications have gained significant attention recently by academics and practitioners, research into its potential integration with CRM system remains a poorly investigated subject. This paper aims to investigate the adoption intention of social CRM system, focusing on Saudi banks. A conceptual model was proposed based on technology organisation and environment (TOE) framework. A qualitative approach was applied to validate the research model. The finding suggests that technology infrastructure, and competitive pressures tend to be the most influential drivers to adopt social CRM. In contrast, the limited number of IT experts, security concerns, and organisational structure were found to negatively affect social CRM adoption intention.

Changes of the equilibrium line altitude since the Little Ice Age in the Nepalese Himalayas

Changes of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in eastern Nepal have been studied using glacier inventory data. The toe-to-headwall altitude ratios (THARs) for individual glaciers were calculated for 1992, and used to estimate the ELA in 1959 and at the end of the LIA. THAR for debris-free glaciers is found to be smaller than for debris-covered glaciers. The ELAs for debris-covered glaciers are higher than those for debris-free glaciers in eastern Nepal. There is considerable variation in the reconstructed change in ELA (ΔELA) between glaciers within specific regions and between regions. This is not related to climate gradients, but results from differences in glacier aspect: southeast- and south-facing glaciers show larger ΔELAs in eastern Nepal than north- or west-facing glaciers. The data suggest that the rate of ELA rise may have accelerated in the last few decades. The limited number of climate records from Nepal, and analyses using a simple ELA–climate model, suggest that the higher rate of the ΔELA between 1959 and 1992 is a result of increased warming that occurred after the 1970s at higher altitudes in Nepal.

New Species of Earless Lizard Genus Heterodactylus (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae) from the Highlands of Chapada Diamantina, State of Bahia, Brazil

A new species of Heterodactylus is described based on two specimens obtained in the highlands of Chapada Diamantina, state of Bahia, Brazil. The new lizard is characterized by very elongate body and tail, absence of external ear opening, presence of moveable eyelids, absence of prefrontals and frontoparietals, a vestigial interparietal, 37-39 dorsal and 27-29 ventral transverse scale rows, 23-25 scales around midbody, six gular scale rows, and 10-11 and 14-15 fourth finger and fourth toe infradigital lamellae, respectively. The new species is most similar to Heterodactylus lundii from which it differs by the absence of contact between frontal and interparietal, by having wider than long parietals, smooth posterior dorsal scales, posterior ventral scales almost twice longer than wide, a lower number of scales around midbody, last supralabial in contact with the granules of the ear depression, and a more elongate body. The new species occurs about 1,100 km north of the northernmost known record of H. lundii. Species of Heterodactylus seem to be restricted to areas of cold climates associated with high latitudes and mountainous areas of eastern Brasil.

ON THE IDENTITY OF CYCLORAMPHUS JORDANENSIS HEYER, 1983 (ANURA: CYCLORAMPHIDAE)

Cycloramphus jordanensis was described based on a single preserved specimen from Campos do Jordao (22 degrees 44` S ,45 degrees 35` W), State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. While examining the holotype; we noticed the presence of toe and tarsal fringes. Because these characters are absent in Cycloramphus, we suspected that the species was mistakenly placed in the genus. X-ray images of the holotype revealed T-shaped terminal phalanges and fang-like teeth. Together with the presence of toe and tarsal fringes, these characters squarely place the specimen in the genus Megaelasia. Considering the striking niche differences between Cycloramphus and Megaclosia, we expect the new combination will facilitate location of new individuals of this rare frog.

A new microteiid lizard of the genus Acratosaura (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae) from Serra do Sincora, State of Bahia, Brazil

A new species of the genus Acratosaura is described on the basis of two specimens obtained at the ""campos rupestres"" (rocky meadows) near Mucuge municipality, state of Bahia, Brazil. Acratosaura spinosa sp. nov., has ear openings and eyelids, pentadactyl limbs lacking a claw on first toe, a single frontonasal, prefrontals, frontoparietals, parietals, interparietals, occipitals, no collar fold, three pairs of genials, three supraoculars and three superciliaries and is further characterized by presenting 28-31 rows of strongly keeled, lanceolate and imbricate dorsal scales, sides of the neck with keeled scales, striate temporal scales, four longitudinal and 17-18 transverse rows of smooth ventral scales, 28-30 scales around the body, 14 and 19-20 infradigital lamellae under finger IV and toe IV, respectively, 13 total preanal and femoral pores in male, absent in female. The new species differs strikingly in color pattern from its only congener A. mentalis. The two species occur sympatricaly in the high altitude open habitats near the type locality.

Psicologia institucional: dificuldades e limites: análise da atuação do psicólogo escolar no Município do Rio de Janeiro

o trabalho dos psicólogos escolares da Secretaria Municipal de Educação e Cultura do Rio de Janeiro ~ pretensamente orientado por uma visão institucional, apoiada nas idéias de J. Bleger. O que este trabalho procura mostrar que esta pretensão não resiste a uma análise dos fatos. Inicialmente, apresentamos uma visão critica da instituição escolar, considerada como Aparelho Ideológico Estado e procuramos mostrar as consequências práticas de tal postura teórica no decorrer de todo este trabalho. Em seguida, faz-se um sumário, o mais detalhado possível, das atividades realizadas pelos psicólogos escolares no município do Rio de Janeiro e esta prática á comparada com alguns aspectos da teoria de J. Bleger. Embora as evidências disponíveis em documentos ofi ciais, e as palavras dos elementos que dirigem e coordenam o trabalho dos psicólogos escolares no citado município, apontem no sentido de adequação deste trabalho com a teoria institucional, tal realmente não ocorre. São analisados e discutidos os possÍveis motivos de tal discrepância entre o que É dito e o que É efetivamente feito, ou seja, o que dificulta, limita e mesmo impede em termos práticos uma atuação a nível institucional. A conclusão á de que no momento, o melhor trabalho que se pode fazer dentro da escola á, sem dúvida, dentro de uma perspectiva institucional entretanto, é importante que se tenha consciência de suas dificuldades e limites e principalmente que se saiba o papel e a função do Aparelho Ide~ lógico Escolar.

Estudo comparativo da injeção de água usando poços verticais e horizontais

Oil recovery using waterflooding has been until now the worldwide most applied method, specially for light oil recovery, its success is mainly because of the low costs involved and the facilities of the injection process. The Toe- To-Heel Waterflooding TTHWTM method uses a well pattern of vertical injector wells completed at the bottom of the reservoir and horizontal producer wells completed at the top of it. The main producing mechanism is gravitational segregation in short distance. This method has been studied since the early 90´s and it had been applied in Canada with positive results for light heavy oils, nevertheless it hasn´t been used in Brazil yet. In order to verify the applicability of the process in Brazil, a simulation study for light oil was performed using Brazilian northwest reservoirs characteristics. The simulations were fulfilled using the STARS module of the Computer Modelling Group Software, used to perform improved oil recovery studies. The results obtained in this research showed that the TTHWTM well pattern presented a light improvement in terms of recovery factor when compared to the conventional 5- Spot pattern, however, it showed lower results in the economic evaluation

Corrective shoeing in horses: analysis of the adaptation period to the new condition imposed

O ferrageamento corretivo é um método comumente ma Dvideow. O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. No utilizado para alterar o padrão do andamento dos animais, presente estudo, não houve diferença significativa entre os assim como na terapêutica de diversas afecções do siste-dias avaliados, a elevação em seis graus da pinça ou talões ma locomotor dos equinos. No entanto, não existem, até não gerou desconforto durante a passada, portanto, os ani o momento, estudos científicos que revelem o período de mais podem retornar às atividades regulares de exercício e adaptação do andamento dos animais a este tipo de in-treinamento imediatamente após o ferrageamento. tervenção.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o período de adaptação à ferraduras com elevação em seis graus da pinça ou talões em equinos caminhando em esteira rolante. O período de adaptação à ferradura foi avaliado nos tempos 0, 48 e 96 horas após cada tipo de ferrageamento proposto. Os animais foram gravados caminhando em esteira rolante. O comprimento da passada e a análise qualitativa do andamento foram realizados com o auxílio do programa Dvideow. O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. No presente estudo, não houve diferença significativa entre os dias avaliados, a elevação em seis graus da pinça ou talões não gerou desconforto durante a passada, portanto, os animais podem retornar às atividades regulares de exercício e treinamento imediatamente após o ferrageamento.

Effects of caffeine on locomotor activity of horses: Determination of the no-effect threshold

Caffeine is the legal stimulant consumed most extensively by the human world population and may be found eventually in the urine and/or blood of race horses, the fact that caffeine is in foods led us to determine the highest no-effect dose (HNED) of caffeine on the spontaneous locomotor activity of horses and then to quantify this substance in urine until it disappeared. We built two behavioural stalls equipped with juxtaposed photoelectric sensors that emit infrared beams that divide the stall into nine sectors in a 'tic-tac-toe' fashion. Each time a beam was interrupted by a leg of the horse, a pulse was generated; the pulses were counted at 5-min intervals and stored by a microcomputer. Environmental effects were minimized by installing exhaust fans producing white noise that obscured outside sounds. One-way observation windows prevented the animals from seeing outside. The sensors were turned on 45 min before drug administration (saline control or caffeine), the animals were observed for up to 8 h after i.v. administration of 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 or 5.0 mg caffeine kg(-1). The HNED of caffeine for stimulation of the spontaneous locomotor activity of horses was 2.0 mg kg(-1). The quantification of caffeine in urine and plasma samples was done by gradient HPLC with UV detection. The no-effect threshold should not be greater than 2.0 mug caffeine ml(-1) plasma or 5.0 mug caffeine ml(-1) urine. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efeitos da adição de carga no treino de marcha na esteira em indivíduos com Doença de Parkinson: ensaio clínico controlado randomizado

Introduction: The intrinsic gait disorders in individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) are one of the most disabling motor symptoms. Among the therapeutic approaches used in attempts to improve the motor function, especially the gait pattern of individuals, stands out the treadmill gait training associated with the addition of load. However, there are few findings that elucidate the benefits arising from such practice. Objective: To assess the effects of adding load on the treadmill gait training in individuals with PD. Material and Methods: A controlled, randomized and blinded clinical trial, was performed with a sample of 27 individuals (18 men and 9 women) with PD, randomly assigned to three experimental conditions, namely: treadmill gait training (n=9), treadmill gait training associated with addition of 5% load (n=9) and treadmill gait training associated with addition of 10% load (n=9). All volunteers were assessed, during phase on of Parkinson's medication, regarding to demographic, clinical and anthropometric (identification form) data, level of disability (Hoehn and Yahr Modified Scale), cognitive function (Mini Mental State Examination), clinical functional - in those areas activity of daily living and motor examination (Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale - UPDRS) and gait cinematic analysis was performed through Qualisys Motion Capture System®. The intervention protocol consisted of gait training in a period of 4 consecutive weeks, with three weekly sessions, lasting 30 minutes each. The post-intervention assessment occurred the next day after the last training session, which was performed cinematic analysis of gait and the UPDRS. Data analysis was performed using the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences® (SPSS) 17.0. Results: The age of volunteers ranged from 41 to 75 years old (62,26 ± 9,07) and the time of clinical diagnosis of PD between 2 to 9 years (4,56 ± 2,42). There was a reduction regarding the score from motor exam domain (p=0,005), only when training with the addition of a 5% load. As for the space-time variables there was no significant difference between groups (p>0,120); however, the training with addition of 5% load presented the following changes: increase in stride length (p=0,028), in step length (p=0,006), in time balance of the most affected member (p=0,006) and reduction in support time of the referred member (p=0,007). Regarding angular variables significant differences between groups submitted to treadmill gait training without addition load and with 5% of load were observed in angle of the ankle at initial contact (p=0,019), in plantar flexion at toe-off (p=0,003) and in the maximum dorsiflexion in swing (p=0,005). While within groups, there was a reduction in amplitude of motion of the ankle (p=0,048), the only workout on the treadmill. Conclusion: The treadmill gait training with addition of 5% load proved to be a better experimental condition than the others because it provided greater gains in a number of variables (space-time and angular gait) and in the motion function, becoming a therapy capable of effectively improving the progress of individuals with PD

Influence of visual information on optimal obstacle crossing

Human motion seems to be guided by some optimal principles. In general, it is assumed that human walking is generated with minimal energy consumption. However, in the presence of disturbances during gait, there is a trade-off between stability (avoiding a fall) and energy-consumption. This work analyses the obstacle-crossing with the leading foot. It was hypothesized that energy-saving mechanisms during obstacle-crossing are modulated by the requirement to avoid a fall using the available sensory information, particularly, by vision. A total of fourteen subjects, seven with no visual impairment and seven blind, walked along a 5 meter flat pathway with an obstacle of 0.26 m height located at 3 m from the starting point. The seven subjects with normal vision crossed the obstacle successfully 30 times in two conditions: blindfolded and with normal vision. The seven blind subjects did the same 30 times. The motion of the leading limb was recorded by video at 60 Hz. There were markers placed on the subject's hip, knee, ankle, rear foot, and forefoot. The motion data were filtered with a fourth order Butterworth filter with a cut-off frequency of 4 Hz. The following variables were calculated: horizontal distance between the leading foot and the obstacle at toe-off prior to (DHPO) and after (DHOP) crossing, minimal vertical height from the foot to the obstacle (DVPO), average step velocity (VELOm). The segmental energies were also calculated and the work consumed by the leading limb during the crossing obstacle was computed for each trial. A statistical analysis repeated-measures ANOVA was conducted on these dependent variables revealing significant differences between the vision and non-vision conditions in healthy subjects. In addition, there were no significant differences between the blind and people with vision blindfolded. These results indicate that vision is crucial to determine the optimal trade-off between energy consumption and avoiding a trip during obstacle crossing.

Avaliação da fissuração por fadiga em tubos durante transporte marítimo

Tubos de aço são transportados diariamente em todo o mundo, por caminhão, trem ou navio. Conseqüentemente, danos de transporte, podem ocorrer com freqüência e regularidade. O tipo de dano particular selecionado para este estudo foi o de trinca por fadiga, o qual é considerado como um dos mais críticos. Neste trabalho foram estudados tubos de aço fabricados de acordo com os requisitos da norma API 5L [1]. Foram efetuadas caracterizações químicas, mecânicas e metalográficas de um tubo com diâmetro 609,6 mm e espessura 15,87 mm grau X-65. A simulação do transporte por navio de tubos de aço foi feita submetendo-se seções de tubo com comprimento igual a 0,1 metro, a ciclos de fadiga por meio de máquina servo-hidráulica. Foi possível concluir que em tubos soldados, a região adjacente ao cordão de solda é a mais crítica, e que quando o posicionamento do tubo na carga é efetuado de maneira que a solda fique apoiada sobre alguma superfície rígida, a ocorrência de trinca por fadiga torna-se possível principalmente se os procedimentos de manuseio, carregamento e transporte não forem executados da maneira como recomendada pelos fabricantes de tubos e pela norma API [2].

Effects of several TIG weld repairs on the axial fatigue strength of AISI 4130 aeronautical steel-welded joints

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Fatigue strength of tungsten inert gas-repaired weld joints in airplane critical structures

In this work the effect of Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) repairs on the axial fatigue strength of an AISI 4130 steel welded joint used in airframe critical to the flight-safety was investigated. Fatigue tests were performed at room temperature on 0.89 mm thick hot-rolled plates with constant amplitude and load ratio of R = 0.1, at 20 Hz frequency. Monotonic tensile tests, optical metallography and microhardness, residual stress and weld geometric factors measurements were also performed. The fatigue strength decreased with the number of GTAW repairs, and was related to microstructural and microhardness changes, as well as residual stress field and weld profile geometry factors, which gave origin to high stress concentration at the weld toe. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.