Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction - A Comparative Study on the Basis of the First Hungarian Bankruptcy Model

The article attempts to answer the question whether or not the latest bankruptcy prediction techniques are more reliable than traditional mathematical–statistical ones in Hungary. Simulation experiments carried out on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy prediction model clearly prove that bankruptcy models built using artificial neural networks have higher classification accuracy than models created in the 1990s based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The article presents the main results, analyses the reasons for the differences and presents constructive proposals concerning the further development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi – a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE® (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest™ (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-offlight mass spectrometry). Data sources: Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. Review methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results: For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Limitations: Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. Conclusions: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

The Traceless Oldroyd viscoelastic model

In the traceless Oldroyd viscoelastic model, the viscoelastic extra stress tensor is decomposed into its traceless (deviatoric) and spherical parts, leading to a reformulation of the classical Oldroyd model. The equivalence of the two models is established comparing model predictions for simple test cases. The new model is validated using several 2D benchmark problems. The structure and behavior of the new model are discussed and the future use of the new model in envisioned, both on the theoretical and numerical perspectives.

A traceless variant of the Johnson-Segalman viscoelastic model

A traceless variant of the Johnson-Segalman viscoelastic model is presented. The viscoelastic extra stress tensor is de composed into its traceless (deviatoric) and spherical parts, leading to a reformulation of the classical Johnson-Segalman model. The equivalente of the two models is established comparing model predictions for simple test cases. The new model is validated using several 2D benchmark problems.The structure and behavior of the new model are discussed.

The Lea Grating Test In Assessing Detection Grating Acuity In Normal Infants Less Than 4 Months Of Age.

To assess binocular detection grating acuity using the LEA GRATINGS test to establish age-related norms in healthy infants during their first 3 months of life. In this prospective, longitudinal study of healthy infants with clear red reflex at birth, responses to gratings were measured at 1, 2, and 3 months of age using LEA gratings at a distance of 28 cm. The results were recorded as detection grating acuity values, which were arranged in frequency tables and converted to a one-octave scale for statistical analysis. For the repeated measurements, analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the detection grating acuity results between ages. A total of 133 infants were included. The binocular responses to gratings showed development toward higher mean values and spatial frequencies, ranging from 0.55 ± 0.70 cycles per degree (cpd), or 1.74 ± 0.21 logMAR, in month 1 to 3.11 ± 0.54 cpd, or 0.98 ± 0.16 logMAR, in month 3. Repeated ANOVA indicated differences among grating acuity values in the three age groups. The LEA GRATINGS test allowed assessment of detection grating acuity and its development in a cohort of healthy infants during their first 3 months of life.

Immune cells and oxidative stress in the endotoxin tolerance mouse model

Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response that can lead to tissue damage and death. In order to increase our understanding of sepsis, experimental models are needed that produce relevant immune and inflammatory responses during a septic event. We describe a lipopolysaccharide tolerance mouse model to characterize the cellular and molecular alterations of immune cells during sepsis. The model presents a typical lipopolysaccharide tolerance pattern in which tolerance is related to decreased production and secretion of cytokines after a subsequent exposure to a lethal dose of lipopolysaccharide. The initial lipopolysaccharide exposure also altered the expression patterns of cytokines and was followed by an 8- and a 1.5-fold increase in the T helper 1 and 2 cell subpopulations. Behavioral data indicate a decrease in spontaneous activity and an increase in body temperature following exposure to lipopolysaccharide. In contrast, tolerant animals maintained production of reactive oxygen species and nitric oxide when terminally challenged by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Survival study after CLP showed protection in tolerant compared to naive animals. Spleen mass increased in tolerant animals followed by increases of B lymphocytes and subpopulation Th1 cells. An increase in the number of stem cells was found in spleen and bone marrow. We also showed that administration of spleen or bone marrow cells from tolerant to naive animals transfers the acquired resistance status. In conclusion, lipopolysaccharide tolerance is a natural reprogramming of the immune system that increases the number of immune cells, particularly T helper 1 cells, and does not reduce oxidative stress.

Dependence of the crossover exponent with the diffusion rate in the generalized contact process model

We study how the crossover exponent, phi, between the directed percolation (DP) and compact directed percolation (CDP) behaves as a function of the diffusion rate in a model that generalizes the contact process. Our conclusions are based in results pointed by perturbative series expansions and numerical simulations, and are consistent with a value phi = 2 for finite diffusion rates and phi = 1 in the limit of infinite diffusion rate.

Influência do consumo alimentar na gestação sobre a retenção de peso pós-parto

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a influência da alimentação durante a gestação sobre a retenção de peso pós-parto. MÉTODOS: Foram acompanhadas 82 gestantes adultas e saudáveis que iniciaram o pré-natal em serviço público de saúde no Município de São Paulo, SP, entre abril e junho de 2005. As medidas de peso e estatura foram aferidas na primeira entrevista (até 16 semanas de gestação) e a medida de peso foi repetida em visita domiciliar 15 dias após o parto. O Recordatório de 24 horas foi usado para avaliar o consumo alimentar e foi aplicado nos três trimestres da gestação. Foi calculado o consumo médio de gordura saturada, fibras, açúcar adicionado, refrigerantes, alimentos processados, frutas, verduras e legumes, e a densidade energética da dieta. A retenção de peso foi obtida pela diferença entre a medida de peso pós-parto e a primeira medida realizada. A influência da alimentação sobre a retenção de peso pós-parto foi avaliada por meio de análise de regressão linear múltipla e foi realizado o teste para tendência linear. As variáveis utilizadas para ajuste do modelo foram: índice de massa corporal no início da gestação, estatura, renda familiar per capita, tabagismo, idade e escolaridade. RESULTADOS: O índice de massa corporal inicial médio foi de 24 kg/m² e a retenção média de peso foi de 1,9 kg. O aumento do consumo de gordura saturada (p = 0,005) e alimentos processados (p = 0,014) elevou de forma significativa a retenção de peso pós-parto, após ajuste pelas variáveis de controle. As demais variáveis de consumo alimentar não apresentaram relação significativa com a variável desfecho. CONCLUSÕES: O maior consumo de alimentos não saudáveis, como alimentos processados, e de gordura saturada influencia a elevação da retenção de peso pós-parto.

The Rg1 allele as a valuable tool for genetic transformation of the tomato 'Micro-Tom' model system

Background: The cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) is regarded as a model system for tomato genetics due to its short life cycle and miniature size. However, efforts to improve tomato genetic transformation have led to protocols dependent on the costly hormone zeatin, combined with an excessive number of steps. Results: Here we report the development of a MT near-isogenic genotype harboring the allele Rg1 (MT-Rg1), which greatly improves tomato in vitro regeneration. Regeneration was further improved in MT by including a two-day incubation of cotyledonary explants onto medium containing 0.4 mu M 1-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA) before cytokinin treatment. Both strategies allowed the use of 5 mu M 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP), a cytokinin 100 times less expensive than zeatin. The use of MT-Rg1 and NAA pre-incubation, followed by BAP regeneration, resulted in high transformation frequencies (near 40%), in a shorter protocol with fewer steps, spanning approximately 40 days from Agrobacterium infection to transgenic plant acclimatization. Conclusions: The genetic resource and the protocol presented here represent invaluable tools for routine gene expression manipulation and high throughput functional genomics by insertional mutagenesis in tomato.

Charm and longitudinal structure functions within the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi model

We use the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi (KLN) model of the low x gluon distributions to fit recent HERA data on F(L) and F(2)(c)(F(2)(b)). Having checked that this model gives a good description of the data, we use it to predict F(L) and F(2)(c) to be measured in a future electron-ion collider. The results are similar to those obtained with the de Florian-Sassot and Eskola-Paukkunen-Salgado nuclear gluon distributions. The conclusion of this exercise is that the KLN model, simple as it is, may still be used as an auxiliary tool to make estimates for both heavy-ion and electron-ion collisions.

Critical behavior of the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice

By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic asynchronous susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is found to be c(0)=0.176 500 5(10), where c is the probability a chosen infected site spontaneously recovers rather than tries to infect one neighbor. This point corresponds to an infection/recovery rate of lambda(c)=(1-c(0))/c(0)=4.665 71(3) and a net transmissibility of (1-c(0))/(1+3c(0))=0.538 410(2), which falls between the rigorous bounds of the site and bond thresholds. The critical behavior of the model is consistent with the two-dimensional percolation universality class, but local growth probabilities differ from those of dynamic percolation cluster growth, as is demonstrated explicitly.

Diffusion anomaly and dynamic transitions in the Bell-Lavis water model

In this paper we investigate the dynamic properties of the minimal Bell-Lavis (BL) water model and their relation to the thermodynamic anomalies. The BL model is defined on a triangular lattice in which water molecules are represented by particles with three symmetric bonding arms interacting through van der Waals and hydrogen bonds. We have studied the model diffusivity in different regions of the phase diagram through Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that the model displays a region of anomalous diffusion which lies inside the region of anomalous density, englobed by the line of temperatures of maximum density. Further, we have found that the diffusivity undergoes a dynamic transition which may be classified as fragile-to-strong transition at the critical line only at low pressures. At higher densities, no dynamic transition is seen on crossing the critical line. Thus evidence from this study is that relation of dynamic transitions to criticality may be discarded. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3479001]

Network of recurrent events for the Olami-Feder-Christensen model

We numerically study the dynamics of a discrete spring-block model introduced by Olami, Feder, and Christensen (OFC) to mimic earthquakes and investigate to what extent this simple model is able to reproduce the observed spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity. Following a recently proposed method to characterize such clustering by networks of recurrent events [J. Davidsen, P. Grassberger, and M. Paczuski, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L11304 (2006)], we find that for synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model these networks have many nontrivial statistical properties. This includes characteristic degree distributions, very similar to what has been observed for real seismicity. There are, however, also significant differences between the OFC model and earthquake catalogs, indicating that this simple model is insufficient to account for certain aspects of the spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity.

The accuracy of the Clock Drawing Test compared to that of standard screening tests for Alzheimer`s disease: results from a study of Brazilian elderly with heterogeneous educational backgrounds

Background: Although the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is the second most used test in the world for the screening of dementia, there is still debate over its sensitivity specificity, application and interpretation in dementia diagnosis. This study has three main aims: to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the CDT in a sample composed of older adults with Alzheimer`s disease (AD) and normal controls; to compare CDT accuracy to the that of the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), and to test whether the association of the MMSE with the CDT leads to higher or comparable accuracy as that reported for the CAMCOG. Methods: Cross-sectional assessment was carried out for 121 AD and 99 elderly controls with heterogeneous educational levels from a geriatric outpatient clinic who completed the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorder of the Elderly (CAMDEX). The CDT was evaluated according to the Shulman, Mendez and Sunderland scales. Results: The CDT showed high sensitivity and specificity. There were significant correlations between the CDT and the MMSE (0.700-0.730; p < 0.001) and between the CDT and the CAMCOG (0.753-0.779; p < 0.001). The combination of the CDT with the MMSE improved sensitivity and specificity (SE = 89.2-90%; SP = 71.7-79.8%). Subgroup analysis indicated that for elderly people with lower education, sensitivity and specificity were both adequate and high. Conclusions: The CDT is a robust screening test when compared with the MMSE or the CAMCOG, independent of the scale used for its interpretation. The combination with the MMSE improves its performance significantly, becoming equivalent to the CAMCOG.

Association Between Urinary Incontinence in Elderly Patients and Caregiver Burden in the City of Sao Paulo/Brazil: Health, Wellbeing, and Ageing Study

Aim: Some elderly patients with incontinence require the care of third parties, known as caregivers. Such care can occur on a daily basis leaving little opportunity for the caregiver to take care of himself/herself. The aims are to assess the association between urinary incontinence in elderly patients and caregiver burden and identify independent factors for caregiver`s burden in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: The Pan-American Health Organization and World Health Organization coordinated a multicenter study named Health, Wellbeing and Aging (SABE Study) in elderly people living in seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. In Brazil, the study population carried out in Sao Paulo in the year 2000 and reassessed in 2006 (COHORT A). Urinary incontinence was assessed by ICIQ-SF and caregiver burden by means of Zarit Burden Scale. Results: A total of 327 patients with caregivers were included in the study. The general prevalence of urinary incontinence was 25.8%, higher among the women. There was a significant positive association between caregiver burden and incontinent patients, demonstrating that urinary incontinence in elderly patients produced greater caregiver burden. In the present study, the variables with significant correlations were assessed using the multivariate logistic regression model. Category 2 of the ICIQ-SF (incontinent patients) increased the chances of caregiver burden 1.96-fold in comparison to Category 1 (continent patients). Likewise, the category of impaired cognition increased the chances of caregiver burden 2.34-fold. Conclusions: Urinary incontinence and cognitive impairment in elderly patients were associated to an increase in caregiver burden. Neurourol. Urodynam. 30:1281-1285, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.