Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Tax policy stance over the business cycle: evidence from Europe

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Statistics as a basis for discrimination in the insurance business

The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

Empirical evidence on the difference between the effective and the statutory tax rates for listed groups in Germany

The difference between the statutory and effective tax rate for listed groups is a complex variable influenced by a variety of factors. This paper aims to analyze whether this difference exists for listed groups in the German market and tests which factors have an impact on it. Thus the sample consists of 130 corporations listed in the three major German stock indices. The findings suggest that the companies that pay less than the statutory rate clearly outweigh the ones that pay more, and that the income earned from associated companies has a significant impact on this difference.

Reporting Income Taxes in the Banking Sector In Angola - Accounting, Tax Regulation and Financial Reporting Evidences

This research provides an insight into income taxes reporting in Angola, based on hand collected data from the annual reports of banks. Empirical studies on Angolan companies are scarce, in part due to the limited access to data. The results show that income taxes’ reporting has improved over the years 2010-2013, becoming more reliable and understandable. The Angolan Government is boosting the economic growth through tax benefits in the investment in public debt, which cause a reduction in the banks’ effective tax rate. The new income tax law will reduce the statutory tax rate from 2015 onwards and change the taxable income, resulting in shifting the focus to promoting private investment.

A consumer research project as the basis for the development of a marketing plan for a new spirit brand producing gin in Germany

This work project is about developing a marketing plan for a new gin brand in Germany. It is based on consumer and market research, including Portugal as a trend market for the qualitative research. For the undertaking it is seen as fundamental to understand the industry as well as the consumer needs, attitudes and preferences. Furthermore, it is important to consider the estimation of opinion leaders and trendsetters in the industry. In this context it turned out that barkeepers have a key-influencing role for the stimulation of demand. Based on the insights from this research as well as on the gained market knowledge, the marketing plan was developed. The goal is to convince other brand users to switch brands.

The cellular basis of a congenital heart defect Drosophila

RESUMO: Mutações em genes envolvidos na formação do coração e anomalias em qualquer etapa deste processo causam frequentemente malformações cardíacas, que representam o tipo mais comum de defeitos em neonatais, afetando cerca de 1% dos nascimentos por ano. Assim, estima-se que 20 milhões de pessoas sejam portadoras de um defeito cardíaco congénito. O coração da Drosophila melanogaster (mosca-da-fruta), denominado vaso dorsal, é um órgão relativamente simples que actua como uma bomba muscular, contraindo automaticamente para permitir a circulação da hemolinfa através do corpo. A formação do vaso dorsal na mosca é muito semelhante ao desenvolvimento do coração em vertebrados, representando por isso, um poderoso modelo para estudar a rede de genes e os padrões regulatórios relacionados com o desenvolvimento deste órgão. Anteriormente, nós identificámos um gene em Drosophila, darhgef10, fortemente expresso no coração em desenvolvimento e cuja deleção induz anormalidades cardíacas subtis mas prevalentes. Os mutantes para darhgef10 são viáveis e férteis no ambiente controlado de laboratório. Este trabalho teve como objectivos caracterizar fenotipicamente os mutantes nulos para darhgef10, determinar a localização subcelular da proteína dArhgef10 e investigar a base celular subjacente ao defeito no alinhamento dos cardioblastos observado nos mutantes. Os nossos resultados revelaram que a deleção de darhgef10 provoca uma severa redução da viabilidade, sem no entanto comprometer o tempo de desenvolvimento e a longevidade. Por outro lado, o aumento da expressão de darhgef10 em músculos, glândulas salivares e no disco imaginal do olho afeta drasticamente a integridade destes tecidos. A expressão ectópica de darhgef10 in vitro e in vivo revelou que a proteína está localiza no citoplasma com enriquecimento junto à membrana celular, com associação à actina F. Live imaging de embriões mutantes para darhgef10 revelou que os defeitos observados no coração podem estar associados a um defeito na adesão dos músculos alary e/ou das células pericardiais ao vaso dorsal. O homólogo humano de darhgef10, ARHGEF10, também é expresso no coração e está associação a uma maior susceptibilidade para a ocorrência de acidentes vasculares cerebrais aterotrombóticos, sugerindo que o que aprendemos sobre darhgef10 em Drosophila pode ter implicações do ponto de vista clínico para a saúde humana. ----------------------------- ABSTRACT: Mutations in genes controlling heart development and abnormalities in any of its steps frequently cause cardiac malformations, the most common type of birth defects in humans, affecting nearly 1% of births per year. Hence around 20 million adults are expected to live with a congenital heart defect. The Drosophila melanogaster heart, called dorsal vessel, is a relatively simple organ that acts as a muscular pump contracting automatically to allow the circulation of hemolymph. Drosophila heart formation shares many similarities with heart development in vertebrates providing a powerful system to study gene networks and regulatory pathways involved in heart development. We have previously identified a Drosophila gene, darhgef10, which is strongly expressed in the developing heart and when deleted, leads to flies with highly prevalent yet subtle heart abnormalities, compatible with unchallenged life in the laboratory. Our aims were to phenotypically characterize homozygous null darhgef10 mutants, characterize the subcellular localization of dArhgef10 and to study the cellular basis of the misaligned cardioblasts defect. We found that about half of darhgef10 mutants die during development. However, the survivors surprisingly have a nearly normal developmental time, adult locomotor behavior and total lifespan. Detection of transgene-derived dArhgef10 protein in vitro and in vivo using custom antibodies revealed a cytosolic protein slightly enriched in the cellular membranes and associated with F-actin. Tissue-specific darhgef10 expression disrupts the normal morphology of developing muscles, salivary glands and the eye. Live imaging of darhgef10 mutant embryos revealed that heart defect could be caused by a reduced capacity of attachment of pericardial cells and/or alary muscle to dorsal vessel. The human homolog of darhgef10 is also expressed in the heart and is a susceptibility gene for atherothrombotic stroke, suggesting that what we learn about the function of this gene and its phenotypes in Drosophila could have implications to human health.

Progressivity in the Portuguese personal income tax system

This Work Project analyzes the evolution of the Portuguese personal income tax system’s progressivity over the period of 2005 through 2013. It presents the first computation of cardinal progressivity measures using administrative tax data for Portugal. We compute several progressivity indices and find that progressivity has had very modest variations from 2005 to 2012, whilst from 2012 to 2013 there has been a relatively stronger decrease, excluding the impact of the income tax surcharge of the years 2012 and 2013. When this latter is included, progressivity of 2012 and 2013 decreases considerably. Analyzing the effective average tax rates of the top income percentiles in the income scale, we find that these rates have increased over the period 2010–2013, suggesting that an analysis of effective tax rates is insufficient to assess progressivity in the whole tax scheme.

Ecstasy intoxication: the toxicological basis for treatment

Youngsters are increasingly using 3,4 methylenedioxymethamphetamine, known as ecstasy, because it is wrongly believed that it does not induce harm. However, there are many reports of adverse effects, including acute intoxication, abuse potential, and possible neurotoxic effects. Therefore, health care providers need to promptly recognize the symptoms of systemic intoxication in order to initiate early treatment. The drug is used by the oral route for long hours during crowded dance parties. Acutely, ecstasy increases the release of serotonin and decreases its reuptake, leading to hypertension, hyperthermia, trismus, and vomiting. There is debate on whether recreational doses of ecstasy cause permanent damage to human serotonergic neurons. Ecstasy users showed a high risk of developing psychopathological disturbances. The prolonged use of ecstasy might induce dependence, characterized by tolerance and hangover. Acute ecstasy intoxication needs emergency-type treatment to avoid the dose-dependent increase in adverse reactions and in severity of complications. There are no specific antidotes to be used during acute intoxication. Supportive measures and medical treatment for each one of the complications should be implemented, keeping in mind that symptoms originate mainly from the central nervous system and the cardiovascular system.

Tax compliance and tax complexity in Portugal: essays on the perception of tax professionals

Tese de Doutoramento em Contabilidade.