Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Caspase-3-dependent phagocyte death during systemic Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium infection of mice.

Growth of Salmonella enterica in mammalian tissues results from continuous spread of bacteria to new host cells. Our previous work indicated that infective S. enterica are liberated from host cells via stochastic necrotic burst independently of intracellular bacterial numbers. Here we report that liver phagocytes can undergo apoptotic caspase-3-mediated cell death in vivo, with apoptosis being a rare event, more prevalent in heavily infected cells. The density-dependent apoptotic cell death is likely to constitute an alternative mechanism of bacterial spread as part of a bet-hedging strategy, ensuring an ongoing protective intracellular environment in which some bacteria can grow and persist.

Bacterial growth rate and host factors as determinants of intracellular bacterial distributions in systemic Salmonella enterica infections.

Bacteria of the species Salmonella enterica cause a range of life-threatening diseases in humans and animals worldwide. The within-host quantitative, spatial, and temporal dynamics of S. enterica interactions are key to understanding how immunity acts on these infections and how bacteria evade immune surveillance. In this study, we test hypotheses generated from mathematical models of in vivo dynamics of Salmonella infections with experimental observation of bacteria at the single-cell level in infected mouse organs to improve our understanding of the dynamic interactions between host and bacterial mechanisms that determine net growth rates of S. enterica within the host. We show that both bacterial and host factors determine the numerical distributions of bacteria within host cells and thus the level of dispersiveness of the infection.

Spread of Salmonella enterica in the body during systemic infection: unravelling host and pathogen determinants.

Salmonella enterica causes a range of life-threatening diseases in humans and animals worldwide. Current treatments for S. enterica infections are not sufficiently effective, and there is a need to develop new vaccines and therapeutics. An understanding of how S. enterica spreads in tissues has very important implications for targeting bacteria with vaccine-induced immune responses and antimicrobial drugs. Development of new control strategies would benefit from a more sophisticated evaluation of bacterial location, spatiotemporal patterns of spread and distribution in the tissues, and sites of microbial persistence. We review here recent studies of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) infections in mice, an established model of systemic typhoid fever in humans, which suggest that continuous bacterial spread to new infection foci and host phagocytes is an essential trait in the virulence of S. enterica during systemic infections. We further highlight how infections within host tissues are truly heterogeneous processes despite the fact that they are caused by the expansion of a genetically homogeneous microbial population. We conclude by discussing how understanding the within-host quantitative, spatial and temporal dynamics of S. enterica infections might aid the development of novel targeted preventative measures and drug regimens.

The Metabolic Core and Catalytic Switches Are Fundamental Elements in the Self-Regulation of the Systemic Metabolic Structure of Cells

19 p.

Annotated bibliography on hypoxia and its effects on marine life, with emphasis on the Gulf of Mexico

This bibliography contains 73 annotated references from publications and reports concerning hypoxia, .,; 2.0 ppm dissolved oxygen concentration, in the Gulf of Mexico. Instances of hypoxia from similar habitats and the effects of low oxygen levels on marine or estuarine organisms are also included. (PDF file contains 15 pages.)

Neuroprotective Effect of Melatonin: A Novel Therapy against Perinatal Hypoxia-Ischemia

17 p.

Hypoxia and Sturgeons: report to the Chesapeake Bay Program Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Team

In this essay, three lines of evidence are developed that sturgeons in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere are unusually sensitive to hypoxic conditions: 1. In comparison to other fishes, sturgeons have a limited behavioral and physiological capacity to respond to hypoxia. Basal metabolism, growth, and consumption are quite sensitive to changes in oxygen level, which may indicate a relatively poor ability by sturgeons to oxyregulate. 2. During summertime, temperatures >20 C amplify the effect of hypoxia on sturgeons and other fishes due to a temperature*oxygen "squeeze" (Coutant 1987)- In bottom waters, this interaction results in substantial reduction of habitat; in dry years, nursery habitats in the Chesapeake Bay may be particularly reduced or even eliminated. 3. While evidence for population level effects by hypoxia are circumstantial, there are corresponding trends between the absence of Atlantic sturgeon reproduction in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay where summertime hypoxia predominates on a system-wide scale. Also, the recent and dramatic recovery of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River (4-fold increase in abundance from 1980 to 1995) may have been stimulated by improvement of a large portion of the nursery habitat that was restored from hypoxia to normoxia during the period 1973-1978. (PDF contains 26 pages)

Randomised, crossover clinical trial, in healthy volunteers, to compare the systemic availability of two topical intranasal budesonide formulations

Background: Budesonide has a long history as intranasal drug, with many marketed products. Efforts should be made to demonstrate the therapeutic equivalence and safety comparability between them. Given that systemic availability significantly varies from formulations, the clinical comparability of diverse products comes to be of clinical interest and a regulatory requirement. The aim of the present study was to compare the systemic availability, pharmacodynamic effect, and safety of two intranasal budesonide formulations for the treatment of rhinitis. Methods: Eighteen healthy volunteers participated in this randomised, controlled, crossover, clinical trial. On two separated days, subjects received a single dose of 512 mu g budesonide (4 puffs per nostril) from each of the assayed devices (Budesonida nasal 64 (R), Aldo-Union, Spain and Rhinocort 64 (R), AstraZeneca, Spain). Budesonide availability was determined by the measurement of budesonide plasma concentration. The pharmacodynamic effect on the hypothalamic-adrenal axis was evaluated as both plasma and urine cortisol levels. Adverse events were tabulated and described. Budesonide availability between formulations was compared by the calculation of 90% CI intervals of the ratios of the main pharmacokinetic parameters describing budesonide bioavailability. Plasma cortisol concentration-time curves were compared by means of a GLM for Repeated Measures. Urine cortisol excretion between formulations was compared through the Wilcoxon's test. Results: All the enroled volunteers successfully completed the study. Pharmacokinetic parameters were comparable in terms of AUC(t) (2.6 +/- 1.5 vs 2.2 +/- 0.7), AUCi (2.9 +/- 1.5 vs 2.4 +/- 0.7), t(max) (0.4 +/- 0.1 vs 0.4 +/- 0.2), C(max)/AUC(i) (0.3 +/- 0.1 vs 0.3 +/- 0.0), and MRT (5.0 +/- 1.4 vs 4.5 +/- 0.6), but not in the case of C(max) (0.9 +/- 0.3 vs 0.7 +/- 0.2) and t(1/2) (3.7 +/- 1.8 vs 2.9 +/- 0.4). The pharmacodynamic effects, measured as the effect over plasma and urine cortisol, were also comparables between both formulations. No severe adverse events were reported and tolerance was comparable between formulations. Conclusion: The systemic availability of intranasal budesonide was comparable for both formulations in terms of most pharmacokinetic parameters. The pharmacodynamic effect on hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis was also similar. Side effects were scarce and equivalent between the two products. This methodology to compare different budesonide-containing devices is reliable and easy to perform, and should be recommended for similar products intented to be marketed or already on the market.

Long Bay hypoxia study: A collaborative and multidisciplinary approach

The nearshore waters along the Myrtle Beach area are oceanographically referred to as Long Bay. Long Bay is the last in a series of semi-circular indentations located along the South Atlantic seaboard. The Bay extends for approximately 150 km from the Cape Fear River in North Carolina to Winyah Bay in South Carolina and has a number of small inlets (Figure 1). This region of the S.C. coast, commonly referred to as the “Grand Strand,” has a significant tourism base that accounts for a substantial portion of the South Carolina economy (i.e., 40% of the state’s total in 2002) (TIAA 2003). In 2004, the Grand Strand had an estimated 13.2 million visitors of which 90% went to the beach (MBCC 2006). In addition, Long Bay supports a shore-based hook and line fishery comprised of anglers fishing from recreational fishing piers, the beach, and small recreational boats just offshore. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Sensitivity of sturgeons to environmental hypoxia: a review of physiological and ecological evidence

In this essay, three lines of evidence are developed that sturgeons in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere are unusually sensitive to hypoxic conditions: 1. In comparison to other fishes,sturgeons have a limited behavioral and physiological capacity to respond to hypoxia. Basal metabolism, growth, feeding rate, and survival are sensitive to changes in oxygen level, which may indicate a relatively poor ability of sturgeons to oxyregulate. 2. During summertime, temperatures >20°C amplify the effect of hypoxia on sturgeons and other fishes due to a temperature oxygen "squeeze" (Coutant 1987). In bottom waters, this interaction results in substantial reduction of habitat; in dry years, sturgeon nursery habitats in the Chesapeake Bay may be particularly reduced or even eliminated. 3. While evidence for population level effects due to hypoxia is circumstantial, there are corresponding trends between the absence of Atlantic sturgeon reproduction in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay where summertime hypoxia predominates on a system-wide scale. Also, the recent and dramatic recovery of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River (4-bid increase in abundance from 1980 to1995) may have been stimulated by improvement of a large portion of the nursery habitat that was restored from hypoxia to normoxia during the period 1973-1978.

MEMS for Diabetic Retinopathy

As the worldwide prevalence of diabetes mellitus continues to increase, diabetic retinopathy remains the leading cause of visual impairment and blindness in many developed countries. Between 32 to 40 percent of about 246 million people with diabetes develop diabetic retinopathy. Approximately 4.1 million American adults 40 years and older are affected by diabetic retinopathy. This glucose-induced microvascular disease progressively damages the tiny blood vessels that nourish the retina, the light-sensitive tissue at the back of the eye, leading to retinal ischemia (i.e., inadequate blood flow), retinal hypoxia (i.e., oxygen deprivation), and retinal nerve cell degeneration or death. It is a most serious sight-threatening complication of diabetes, resulting in significant irreversible vision loss, and even total blindness.

Unfortunately, although current treatments of diabetic retinopathy (i.e., laser therapy, vitrectomy surgery and anti-VEGF therapy) can reduce vision loss, they only slow down but cannot stop the degradation of the retina. Patients require repeated treatment to protect their sight. The current treatments also have significant drawbacks. Laser therapy is focused on preserving the macula, the area of the retina that is responsible for sharp, clear, central vision, by sacrificing the peripheral retina since there is only limited oxygen supply. Therefore, laser therapy results in a constricted peripheral visual field, reduced color vision, delayed dark adaptation, and weakened night vision. Vitrectomy surgery increases the risk of neovascular glaucoma, another devastating ocular disease, characterized by the proliferation of fibrovascular tissue in the anterior chamber angle. Anti-VEGF agents have potential adverse effects, and currently there is insufficient evidence to recommend their routine use.

In this work, for the first time, a paradigm shift in the treatment of diabetic retinopathy is proposed: providing localized, supplemental oxygen to the ischemic tissue via an implantable MEMS device. The retinal architecture (e.g., thickness, cell densities, layered structure, etc.) of the rabbit eye exposed to ischemic hypoxic injuries was well preserved after targeted oxygen delivery to the hypoxic tissue, showing that the use of an external source of oxygen could improve the retinal oxygenation and prevent the progression of the ischemic cascade.

The proposed MEMS device transports oxygen from an oxygen-rich space to the oxygen-deficient vitreous, the gel-like fluid that fills the inside of the eye, and then to the ischemic retina. This oxygen transport process is purely passive and completely driven by the gradient of oxygen partial pressure (pO₂). Two types of devices were designed. For the first type, the oxygen-rich space is underneath the conjunctiva, a membrane covering the sclera (white part of the eye), beneath the eyelids and highly permeable to oxygen in the atmosphere when the eye is open. Therefore, sub-conjunctival pO₂ is very high during the daytime. For the second type, the oxygen-rich space is inside the device since pure oxygen is needle-injected into the device on a regular basis.

To prevent too fast or too slow permeation of oxygen through the device that is made of parylene and silicone (two widely used biocompatible polymers in medical devices), the material properties of the hybrid parylene/silicone were investigated, including mechanical behaviors, permeation rates, and adhesive forces. Then the thicknesses of parylene and silicone became important design parameters that were fine-tuned to reach the optimal oxygen permeation rate.

The passive MEMS oxygen transporter devices were designed, built, and tested in both bench-top artificial eye models and in-vitro porcine cadaver eyes. The 3D unsteady saccade-induced laminar flow of water inside the eye model was modeled by computational fluid dynamics to study the convective transport of oxygen inside the eye induced by saccade (rapid eye movement). The saccade-enhanced transport effect was also demonstrated experimentally. Acute in-vivo animal experiments were performed in rabbits and dogs to verify the surgical procedure and the device functionality. Various hypotheses were confirmed both experimentally and computationally, suggesting that both the two types of devices are very promising to cure diabetic retinopathy. The chronic implantation of devices in ischemic dog eyes is still underway.

The proposed MEMS oxygen transporter devices can be also applied to treat other ocular and systemic diseases accompanied by retinal ischemia, such as central retinal artery occlusion, carotid artery disease, and some form of glaucoma.

Alterações comportamentais e a análise do estresse oxidativo na idade adulta de animais expostos a hipóxia pré-natal

A Hipóxia-Isquêmica (HI) pré-natal é caracterizada por uma redução no aporte de oxigênio e nutrientes para o feto durante o período gestacional, que pode acarretar, a longo prazo, em dificuldade de concentração e aprendizagem, hiperatividade e déficit de memória. Esses prejuízos podem persistir ou se agravar até a idade adulta, levando ainda ao aparecimento de doenças como epilepsia e paralisia cerebral (PC). A privação de oxigênio e nutrientes, assim como o estresse materno, anemia, eclâmpsia e uso de drogas durante a gestação, podem causar estresse oxidativo durante os períodos críticos do desenvolvimento, e pode ser a principal razão para as mudanças que levam a programação fetal. O objetivo deste estudo foi relacionar a geração de espécies reativas e a consequente formação de estresse oxidativo nos animais adultos, com as alterações da biodisponibilidade do óxido nítrico de forma sistêmica, além de mudanças nos comportamentos motor e de ansiedade, manutenção da memória e aprendizado. Para a hipóxia, foi utilizado o modelo de clampeamento das artérias uterinas das ratas no 18 dia gestacional por 45 min, analisando os filhotes após 90 dias de nascidos. Foram utilizados os testes Open Field e labirinto em cruz elevada para a análise comportamental, e análises das enzimas glutationa peroxidase (GPx), superóxido desmutase (SOD) e catalase, além de quantificação de nitritos, TBARs e carbonilação de proteínas para avaliação de mecanismos oxidantes e antioxidantes. Os resultados demonstraram que o insulto durante a gestação pode acarretar em redução na formação da enzima GPx, além de maior concentração de nitritos analisados nos soros dos animais hipoxiados quando comparados aos controles, contribuindo para o dano oxidativo. Também foi observada redução na memória de habituação e comportamento motor, além de elevado comportamento ansioso em animais hipoxiados, diferentemente de controles. Concluímos assim que a hipóxia isquêmica pré-natal pode alterar permanentemente o estado oxidativo dos animais, além de atuar na formação do comportamento motor, memória de habituação e ansiedade. As descobertas aqui apresentadas contribuem para ampliar o entendimento acerca do evento de hipóxia isquêmica pré-natal, além de prover ferramentas para o desenvolvimento de mecanismos protetores e preventivos aos possíveis danos por ela causados.