Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Previsão de inflação utilizando modelos de séries temporais

Este trabalho compara modelos de séries temporais para a projeção de curto prazo da inflação brasileira, medida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA). Foram considerados modelos SARIMA de Box e Jenkins e modelos estruturais em espaço de estados, estimados pelo filtro de Kalman. Para a estimação dos modelos, foi utilizada a série do IPCA na base mensal, de março de 2003 a março de 2012. Os modelos SARIMA foram estimados no EVIEWS e os modelos estruturais no STAMP. Para a validação dos modelos para fora da amostra, foram consideradas as previsões 1 passo à frente para o período de abril de 2012 a março de 2013, tomando como base os principais critérios de avaliação de capacidade preditiva propostos na literatura. A conclusão do trabalho é que, embora o modelo estrutural permita, decompor a série em componentes com interpretação direta e estudá-las separadamente, além de incorporar variáveis explicativas de forma simples, o desempenho do modelo SARIMA para prever a inflação brasileira foi superior, no período e horizonte considerados. Outro importante aspecto positivo é que a implementação de um modelo SARIMA é imediata, e previsões a partir dele são obtidas de forma simples e direta.

Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

Estudo do genoma do vírus causador da mionecrose infecciosa em camarões e desenvolvimento de métodos para detecção de diferentes variantes

Shrimp farming is one of the activities that contribute most to the growth of global aquaculture. However, this business has undergone significant economic losses due to the onset of viral diseases such as Infectious Myonecrosis (IMN). The IMN is already widespread throughout Northeastern Brazil and affects other countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and China. The main symptom of disease is myonecrosis, which consists of necrosis of striated muscles of the abdomen and cephalothorax of shrimp. The IMN is caused by infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), a non-enveloped virus which has protrusions along its capsid. The viral genome consists of a single molecule of double-stranded RNA and has two Open Reading Frames (ORFs). The ORF1 encodes the major capsid protein (MCP) and a potential RNA binding protein (RBP). ORF2 encodes a probable RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and classifies IMNV in Totiviridae family. Thus, the objective of this research was study the IMNV complete genome and encoded proteins in order to develop a system differentiate virus isolates based on polymorphisms presence. The phylogenetic relationship among some totivirus was investigated and showed a new group to IMNV within Totiviridae family. Two new genomes were sequenced, analyzed and compared to two other genomes already deposited in GenBank. The new genomes were more similar to each other than those already described. Conserved and variable regions of the genome were identified through similarity graphs and alignments using the four IMNV sequences. This analyze allowed mapping of polymorphic sites and revealed that the most variable region of the genome is in the first half of ORF1, which coincides with the regions that possibly encode the viral protrusion, while the most stable regions of the genome were found in conserved domains of proteins that interact with RNA. Moreover, secondary structures were predicted for all proteins using various softwares and protein structural models were calculated using threading and ab initio modeling approaches. From these analyses was possible to observe that the IMNV proteins have motifs and shapes similar to proteins of other totiviruses and new possible protein functions have been proposed. The genome and proteins study was essential for development of a PCR-based detection system able to discriminate the four IMNV isolates based on the presence of polymorphic sites

Expression, purification, and circular dichroism analysis of human CDK9

The human cyclin-dependent kinase 9 (CDK9) protein was expressed in E coli BL21 using the pET23a vector at 30 degrees C. Several milligrams of protein were purified from soluble fraction using ionic exchange and ATP-affinity chromatography. The structural quality of recombinant CDK9 and the estimation of its secondary structure were obtained by circular dichroism. Structural models of CDK9 presented 26% of helices in agreement with the spectra by circular dichroism analysis. This is the first report on human CDK9 expression in Escherichia coli and structure analysis and provides the first step for the development of CDK9 inhibitors. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hierarquia de dominância durante a obtenção de Alimento em cebus apella e cebus libidinosus em Cativeiro

The analysis of the index of hierarchy and structural models of the formation of groups allowed to establish the hierarchical position of members of two groups of the genus Cebus. By the analyses of the hierarchical positions and the application of tests to obtain a food resource (TORA), we know the difference between these groups and groups in the wild. The results show a high ranking for both Cebus apella, as well as Cebus libidinosus. The results have enabled us to establish that the hierarchical structure in groups of Cebus in captivity: a) can be fixed and rigid different from highly flexible hierarchical structure studied in groups of wild b) even which similar hierarchy indices, there are differences in the hierarchical structure presents between C. apella and C. libidinosus in captivity c) hierarchy directly influence the behavioral patterns of obtaining food in Cebus

Expression and purification of human respiratory syncytial virus recombinant fusion protein

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Molecular modeling and small angle X-ray scattering studies of Hoplosternum littorale cathodic haemoglobin

Considerable interest is currently focused on fish haemoglobins in order to identify the structural basis for their diversity of functional behavior. Hoplosternum littorale is a catfish that presents bimodal gill (water)/gut (air) -breathing, which allows this species to survive in waters with low oxygen content. The hemolysate of this fish showed the presence of two main haemoglobins, cathodic and anodic. This work describes structural features analyzed here by integration of molecular modeling with small angle X-ray scattering. Here is described a molecular model for the cathodic haemoglobin in the unliganded and liganded states. The models were determined by molecular modeling based on the high-resolution crystal structure of fish haemoglobins. The structural models for both forms of H. littorale haemoglobin were compared to human haemoglobin. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photoluminescence in disordered sm-doped PbTiO3: Experimental and theoretical approach

Sm-doped PbTiO3 powder was synthesized by the polymeric precursor method, and was heat treated at different temperatures. The x-ray diffraction, photoluminescence, and UV-visible were used as a probe for the structural order degree short-, intermediate-, and long-range orders. Sm-3+ ions were used as markers of these order-disorder transformations in the PbTiO3 system. From the Rietveld refinement of the Sm-doped PbTiO3 x-ray diffraction data, structural models were obtained and analyzed by periodic ab initio quantum mechanical calculations using the CRYSTAL 98 package within the framework of density functional theory at the B3LYP level. This program can yield important information regarding the structural and electronic properties of crystalline and disordered structures. The experimental and theoretical results indicate the presence of the localized states in the band gap, due to the symmetry break, which is responsible for visible photoluminescence at room temperature in the disordered structure. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Molecular modeling databases: A new way in the search of protein targets for drug development

DBMODELING is a relational database of annotated comparative protein structure models and their metabolic, pathway characterization. It is focused on enzymes identified in the genomes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Xylella fastidiosa. The main goal of the present database is to provide structural models to be used in docking simulations and drug design. However, since the accuracy of structural models is highly dependent on sequence identity between template and target, it is necessary to make clear to the user that only models which show high structural quality should be used in such efforts. Molecular modeling of these genomes generated a database, in which all structural models were built using alignments presenting more than 30% of sequence identity, generating models with medium and high accuracy. All models in the database are publicly accessible at http://www.biocristalografia.df.ibilce.unesp.br/tools. DBMODELING user interface provides users friendly menus, so that all information can be printed in one stop from any web browser. Furthermore, DBMODELING also provides a docking interface, which allows the user to carry out geometric docking simulation, against the molecular models available in the database. There are three other important homology model databases: MODBASE, SWISSMODEL, and GTOP. The main applications of these databases are described in the present article. © 2007 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.

Preparação e caracterização de coacervatos e vidros a base de fosfato, dopados com európio

Pós-graduação em Química - IQ

Incorporação de tiofosfatos em vidros calcogenetos: estrutura e fenômenos fotoinduzidos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dispositivos institucionais filantrópicos e socioeducativos de atenção à infância na assistência social

This study investigated Social Care as an institution that creates mechanisms for the production of subjectivity in the care of children and adolescents. For this, we used some analytical coordinates, both conjectural and structural, models of care for mapping care in confrontation in the field of Social Care. It was concluded that there was two contradictory paradigms, in the dialectical sense, organizing social care, one being the philanthropic mode and the other the socioeducative mode. The first, which is hegemonic in the field, corresponds to a care entity still organized from philanthropic care and is guided by a minority age logic, articulated by a discourse of criminalizing the lower classes. It is informally based on the legal concept of irregular situations, which would develop preventive, repressive, correctional and moralizing care practices. The construction of a socioeducative mode implies socioeducative care that aims for an effective increase in the rights of children and adolescents, based on their status as subjects and citizens, through democratic, dialogic, participatory, multi-disciplinary and fundamentally emancipatory institutional practices.

Espécies metalo-supramoleculares discretas polinucleares: sínteses e caracterização

Pós-graduação em Química - IQ