956 resultados para stock order flow model


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Máster en Oceanografía. Programa de Doctorado en Oceanografía

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This thesis analyses problems related to the applicability, in business environments, of Process Mining tools and techniques. The first contribution is a presentation of the state of the art of Process Mining and a characterization of companies, in terms of their "process awareness". The work continues identifying circumstance where problems can emerge: data preparation; actual mining; and results interpretation. Other problems are the configuration of parameters by not-expert users and computational complexity. We concentrate on two possible scenarios: "batch" and "on-line" Process Mining. Concerning the batch Process Mining, we first investigated the data preparation problem and we proposed a solution for the identification of the "case-ids" whenever this field is not explicitly indicated. After that, we concentrated on problems at mining time and we propose the generalization of a well-known control-flow discovery algorithm in order to exploit non instantaneous events. The usage of interval-based recording leads to an important improvement of performance. Later on, we report our work on the parameters configuration for not-expert users. We present two approaches to select the "best" parameters configuration: one is completely autonomous; the other requires human interaction to navigate a hierarchy of candidate models. Concerning the data interpretation and results evaluation, we propose two metrics: a model-to-model and a model-to-log. Finally, we present an automatic approach for the extension of a control-flow model with social information, in order to simplify the analysis of these perspectives. The second part of this thesis deals with control-flow discovery algorithms in on-line settings. We propose a formal definition of the problem, and two baseline approaches. The actual mining algorithms proposed are two: the first is the adaptation, to the control-flow discovery problem, of a frequency counting algorithm; the second constitutes a framework of models which can be used for different kinds of streams (stationary versus evolving).

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The demands in production and associate costs at power generation through non renewable resources are increasing at an alarming rate. Solar energy is one of the renewable resource that has the potential to minimize this increase. Utilization of solar energy have been concentrated mainly on heating application. The use of solar energy in cooling systems in building would benefit greatly achieving the goal of non-renewable energy minimization. The approaches of solar energy heating system research done by initiation such as University of Wisconsin at Madison and building heat flow model research conducted by Oklahoma State University can be used to develop and optimize solar cooling building system. The research uses two approaches to develop a Graphical User Interface (GUI) software for an integrated solar absorption cooling building model, which is capable of simulating and optimizing the absorption cooling system using solar energy as the main energy source to drive the cycle. The software was then put through a number of litmus test to verify its integrity. The litmus test was conducted on various building cooling system data sets of similar applications around the world. The output obtained from the software developed were identical with established experimental results from the data sets used. Software developed by other research are catered for advanced users. The software developed by this research is not only reliable in its code integrity but also through its integrated approach which is catered for new entry users. Hence, this dissertation aims to correctly model a complete building with the absorption cooling system in appropriate climate as a cost effective alternative to conventional vapor compression system.

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Lava flow modeling can be a powerful tool in hazard assessments; however, the ability to produce accurate models is usually limited by a lack of high resolution, up-to-date Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). This is especially obvious in places such as Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii), where active lava flows frequently alter the terrain. In this study, we use a new technique to create high resolution DEMs on Kilauea using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the TanDEM-X (TDX) satellite. We convert raw TDX SAR data into a geocoded DEM using GAMMA software [Werner et al., 2000]. This process can be completed in several hours and permits creation of updated DEMs as soon as new TDX data are available. To test the DEMs, we use the Harris and Rowland [2001] FLOWGO lava flow model combined with the Favalli et al. [2005] DOWNFLOW model to simulate the 3-15 August 2011 eruption on Kilauea's East Rift Zone. Results were compared with simulations using the older, lower resolution 2000 SRTM DEM of Hawaii. Effusion rates used in the model are derived from MODIS thermal infrared satellite imagery. FLOWGO simulations using the TDX DEM produced a single flow line that matched the August 2011 flow almost perfectly, but could not recreate the entire flow field due to the relatively high DEM noise level. The issues with short model flow lengths can be resolved by filtering noise from the DEM. Model simulations using the outdated SRTM DEM produced a flow field that followed a different trajectory to that observed. Numerous lava flows have been emplaced at Kilauea since the creation of the SRTM DEM, leading the model to project flow lines in areas that have since been covered by fresh lava flows. These results show that DEMs can quickly become outdated on active volcanoes, but our new technique offers the potential to produce accurate, updated DEMs for modeling lava flow hazards.

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In reverse logistics networks, products (e.g., bottles or containers) have to be transported from a depot to customer locations and, after use, from customer locations back to the depot. In order to operate economically beneficial, companies prefer a simultaneous delivery and pick-up service. The resulting Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Delivery and Pick-up (VRPSDP) is an operational problem, which has to be solved daily by many companies. We present two mixed-integer linear model formulations for the VRPSDP, namely a vehicle-flow and a commodity-flow model. In order to strengthen the models, domain-reducing preprocessing techniques, and effective cutting planes are outlined. Symmetric benchmark instances known from the literature as well as new asymmetric instances derived from real-world problems are solved to optimality using CPLEX 12.1.

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Person-to-stock order picking is highly flexible and requires minimal investment costs in comparison to automated picking solutions. For these reasons, tradi-tional picking is widespread in distribution and production logistics. Due to its typically large proportion of manual activities, picking causes the highest operative personnel costs of all intralogistics process. The required personnel capacity in picking varies short- and mid-term due to capacity requirement fluctuations. These dynamics are often balanced by employing minimal permanent staff and using seasonal help when needed. The resulting high personnel fluctuation necessitates the frequent training of new pickers, which, in combination with in-creasingly complex work contents, highlights the im-portance of learning processes in picking. In industrial settings, learning is often quantified based on diminishing processing time and cost requirements with increasing experience. The best-known industrial learning curve models include those from Wright, de Jong, Baloff and Crossman, which are typically applied to the learning effects of an entire work crew rather than of individuals. These models have been validated in largely static work environments with homogeneous work contents. Little is known of learning effects in picking systems. Here, work contents are heterogeneous and individual work strategies vary among employees. A mix of temporary and steady employees with varying degrees of experience necessitates the observation of individual learning curves. In this paper, the individual picking performance development of temporary employees is analyzed and compared to that of steady employees in the same working environment.

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This work presents the preliminary study of new carbonaceous materials (CMs) obtained from exhausted sludge, their use in the heterogeneous anaerobic process of biodecolorization of azo dyes and the comparison of their performance with one commercial active carbon. The preparation of carbonaceous materials was conducted through chemical activation and carbonization. Chemical activation was carried out through impregnation of sludge-exhausted materials with ZnCl2 and the activation by means of carbonization at different temperatures (400, 600 and 800°C). Their physicochemical and surface characteristics were also investigated. Sludge based carbonaceous (SBC) materials SBC400, SBC600 and SBC800 present values of 13.0, 111.3 and 202.0m(2)/g of surface area. Biodecolorization levels of 76% were achieved for SBC600 and 86% for SBC800 at space time (τ) of 1.0min, similar to that obtained with commercial activated carbons in the continuous anaerobic up-flow packed bed reactor (UPBR). The experimental data fit well to the first order kinetic model and equilibrium data are well represented by the Langmuir isotherm model. Carbonaceous materials show high level of biodecolorization even at very short space times. Results indicate that carbonaceous materials prepared from sludge-exhausted materials have outstanding textural properties and significant degradation capacity for treating textile effluents.

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It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published 10Be-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas.

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The scope of this PhD thesis was the hydrogeological conceptualisation of the Upper Ouémé river catchment in Benin. The study area exceeds 14,500 km**2 and is underlain by a crystalline basement. At this setting the typical sequence of aquifers - a regolith aquifer at the top and a fractured bedrock aquifer at the bottom - is encountered, which is found in basement areas all over Africa and elsewhere in the world. The chosen regional approach revealed important information about the hydrochemistry and hydrogeology of this catchment. Based on the regional conceptual model a numerical groundwater flow model was designed. The numerical model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on the regional groundwater resources. This study was realised within the framework of the German interdisciplinary research project IMPETUS (English translation: "Integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa"), which is jointly managed by the German universities of Bonn and Cologne. Since the year 2000 the Upper Ouémé catchment was the principal target for investigations into the relevant processes of the regional water cycle. A first study from 2000 to 2003 (Fass, 2004, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-03849) focused on the hydrogeology of a small local catchment (~30 km**2). In the course of this thesis five field campaigns were underdone from the year 2004 to 2006. In the beginning of 2004 a groundwater monitoring net was installed based on 12 automatic data loggers. Manual piezometric measurements and the sampling of groundwater and surface water were realised for each campaign throughout the whole study area. Water samples were analysed for major ions, for a choice of heavy metals and for their composition by deuterium, oxygen-18 and tritium. The numerical model was performed with FEFLOW. The hydraulic and hydrochemical characteristics were described for the regolith aquifer and the bedrock aquifer. The regolith aquifer plays the role of the groundwater stock with low conductivity while the fractures of the bedrock may conduct water relatively fast towards extraction points. Flow in fractures of the bedrock depends on the connectivity of the fracture network which might be of local to subregional importance. Stable isotopes in combination with hydrochemistry proved that recharge occurs on catchment scale and exclusively by precipitation. Influx of groundwater from distant areas along dominant structures like the Kandi fault or from the Atacora mountain chain is excluded. The analysis of tritium in groundwater from different depths revealed the interesting fact of the strongly rising groundwater ages. Bedrock groundwater may possibly be much older than 50 years. Equilibrium phases of the silicate weathering products kaolinite and montmorillonite showed that the deeper part of the regolith aquifer and the bedrock aquifer feature either stagnant or less mobile groundwater while the shallow aquifer level is influenced by seasonal groundwater table fluctuations. The hydrochemical data characterised this zone by the progressive change of the hydrochemical facies of recently infiltrated rainwater on its flow path into deeper parts of the aquifers. Surprisingly it was found out that seasonal influences on groundwater hydrochemistry are minor, mainly because they affect only the groundwater levels close to the surface. The transfer of the hydrogeological features of the Upper Ouémé catchment into a regional numerical model demanded a strong simplification. Groundwater tables are a reprint of the general surface morphology. Pumping or other types of groundwater extraction would have only very local impact on the available groundwater resources. It was possible to integrate IMPETUS scenario data into the groundwater model. As a result it was shown that the impact of climate change on the groundwater resources until the year 2025 under the given conditions will be negligible due to the little share of precipitation needed for recharge and the low water needs for domestic use. Reason for concern is the groundwater quality on water points in the vicinity of settlements because of contamination by human activities as shown for the village of Dogué. Nitrate concentrations achieved in many places already alerting levels. Health risks from fluoride or heavy metals were excluded for the Upper Ouémé area.

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A stratigraphy-based chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core has been derived by transferring the annual layer counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and its model extension (GICC05modelext) from the NGRIP core to the NEEM core using 787 match points of mainly volcanic origin identified in the electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) and dielectrical profiling (DEP) records. Tephra horizons found in both the NEEM and NGRIP ice cores are used to test the matching based on ECM and DEP and provide five additional horizons used for the timescale transfer. A thinning function reflecting the accumulated strain along the core has been determined using a Dansgaard-Johnsen flow model and an isotope-dependent accumulation rate parameterization. Flow parameters are determined from Monte Carlo analysis constrained by the observed depth-age horizons. In order to construct a chronology for the gas phase, the ice age-gas age difference (Delta age) has been reconstructed using a coupled firn densification-heat diffusion model. Temperature and accumulation inputs to the Delta age model, initially derived from the water isotope proxies, have been adjusted to optimize the fit to timing constraints from d15N of nitrogen and high-resolution methane data during the abrupt onset of Greenland interstadials. The ice and gas chronologies and the corresponding thinning function represent the first chronology for the NEEM core, named GICC05modelext-NEEM-1. Based on both the flow and firn modelling results, the accumulation history for the NEEM site has been reconstructed. Together, the timescale and accumulation reconstruction provide the necessary basis for further analysis of the records from NEEM.

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